Haiduk Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Looks like UKR attack on Novorossiysk on 4th of Aug, almost blocked Russian shipping of oil in Black Sea Russian TG posts information of Bloomnerg that after UKR drone attack on Novorossiysk port, export of oil fell down to 100 000 barrels for a day, when before attack in was 600 000 - 800 000 barrels. If in last week of July three tankers were departed and in first week of August - five, than since UKR attack only one tanker was departed from Novorossiysk. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said: If Utkin is indeed dead too, it will be most probable outcome. But it will be crucial now for regime to act fast and capture all Wagner assets; from what I read, their network in Africa is only half state-controlled, and probably full of hidden businessess and local personal contacts that may be lost now. Overal, it is not good news for Ukraine; the scent of the rot in the form of notion that boss is not entirely in charge, that sorrounded regime during last months will likely be removed. Any potentiall dissent will need to acknowledge now that Putin will not tolerate insubordination. Jesus, they have such grotesquely orkish manners there... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lco9Ki-5qfQ I think that will be the first take and I vehemently disagree. Regular Russians actually supported Prigozhin and Wagner. The hard core Ukraine war folks did so intensely. Utkin and Prigozhin were nationalist heroes. The vox populi will be that they were killed because they tried to win. Add in that it says state capacity is a total mess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, billbindc said: Utkin and Prigozhin were nationalist heroes. They weren't nationalists, they are pure criminals, and this "criminal honor code", "simple decisions" and "social lifts" matched to hearts and minds of many Russians. If you usual man. you almost never can rise in carrer of official state (only with bribes, corrupted ties and support of criminals). Prigizhyn and his business - both "Concord" company and PMC Wagner allowed many people really to became successful, unlike state and army he cared about effectiveness of own company and own military, so sympathiies of Russians to this bandit caused not so by his nationalism, but because his showed them rigtness, let even criminal, but anyway it's better then officilal state neo-feodalism You will be surprised, but real opposition to Putin's regime in Russian is not liberals, but new generation of Stalin and USSR 2.0 followers. Because Soviet sytem was by their opinion had much more rightness than current "oligarcho-capitalism". Prigozhyn in many matched to asks of this "Soviet rightness", despite he is typical oligarch Edited August 23, 2023 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, billbindc said: I think that will be the first take and I vehemently disagree. Regular Russians actually supported Prigozhin and Wagner. The hard core Ukraine war folks did so intensely. Utkin and Prigozhin were nationalist heroes. The vox populi will be that they were killed because they tried to win. Add in that it says state capacity is a total mess. This indeed may push Putin finally into way of more traditional repressions, but note that it was probably planned a long time. Separs are now integrated into army, Wagner scattered and frontlines manned by regular military. So nats likely have less vote in this situation now than at the start of the conflict; their dissent will most probably be silenced. Not to mention that quite many of their heroes already died in combat or due to mysterious accidents. Like exploding dwarf statues. Quite frankly I am surprised Prig lived so long; many of the nats seem to realize this too, back from the time when he challanged Putin anyway. They will need to get accustomed, as they always did. Btw. reportedly another plane belonging to Prigozhin is landing in Moscow as we speak Pilot must have said all the prayers he ever knew. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 47 minutes ago, Splinty said: They couldn't get Prig to stand near a window. So they put him on a plane. Prig "I'd like an aisle seat please." Ticket agent. "sorry, all we have left are window seats....." 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Haiduk said: They weren't nationalists, they are pure criminals, and this "criminal honor code", "simple decisions" and "social lifts" matched to hearts and minds of many Russians. If you usual man. you almost never can rise in carrer of official state (only with bribes, corrupted ties and support of criminals). Prigizhyn and his business - both "Concord" company and PMC Wagner allowed many people really to became successful, unlike state and army he cared about effectiveness of own company and own military, so sympathiies of Russians to this bandit caused not so by his nationalism, but because his showed them rigtness, let even criminal, but anyway it's better then officilal state neo-feodalism In Russian perception they were very much national heroes. Grotesque, misguided and sick...but that's what passes for Russian patriotism these days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 (edited) 25 minutes ago, billbindc said: In Russian perception they were very much national heroes. Grotesque, misguided and sick...but that's what passes for Russian patriotism these days. The cult of brutal force, which can establish some "order and rightness" always was popular among Russians long time ago. That's why important to beat Russians on battlefield and force to sign capitulation (any peace agreement on terms of Ukraine will be capitulation for Russians). This nation like a thugs understands only the language of violent beating up and humilitation. All other they will assume as a weakness of the opponent. Edited August 23, 2023 by Haiduk 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlackMoria Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Lots of possibilities to consider. A. the plane crash was an accident. Least likely possibility in my opinion. B. It is Prig doing a ninja vanish as he got word that being near a window as in his future, so it was time to bail and live a quiet life in Africa. Not likely but possible. Wouldn't put it past the slippery bastard. C. Payback by the Generals affected by the purge. Possible. Proof will be seeing what machinations occur in the internal politics of Russian D. It was the Ukrainians. Highly possible, IMO. E. Putin ordered the hit. A bomb or Russian AD bought the plane down. It will be reported as an accident. I am leaning between D & E, with E topping the list. Putin is hearing people mutter about him being weak and the failed moon landing, which could of buoyed up his standing, sunk that chance. He senses the knives bring drawn and was forced to act. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riptides Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, BlackMoria said: Lots of possibilities to consider. A. the plane crash was an accident. Least likely possibility in my opinion. B. It is Prig doing a ninja vanish as he got word that being near a window as in his future, so it was time to bail and live a quiet life in Africa. Not likely but possible. Wouldn't put it past the slippery bastard. C. Payback by the Generals affected by the purge. Possible. Proof will be seeing what machinations occur in the internal politics of Russian D. It was the Ukrainians. Highly possible, IMO. E. Putin ordered the hit. A bomb or Russian AD bought the plane down. It will be reported as an accident. I am leaning between D & E, with E topping the list. Putin is hearing people mutter about him being weak and the failed moon landing, which could of buoyed up his standing, sunk that chance. He senses the knives bring drawn and was forced to act. F. What air defense doing? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 (edited) Russians TG alarming What a "pizdyets" ("completely f..g mess") is happening right now on Kherson direction... Interaction, speed of reaction - absent from the word "at all". The enemy sails free on boats along Dnipro. It conducts rotation, lands diversion groups. I have no words. Other Russian propagandist in own video offer to issue some terrible about 205th motor-right brigade command, which by his words do anything to eliminate UKR bridgehead near Kozachi Lheri. He named 205th brigade "200-drunken", using playing and similar prononcuation of words "piataya " ("fifth") and "pyanaya" ("drunken") Edited August 23, 2023 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russian-warlord-who-defied-putin-was-on-passenger-list-of-jet-that-crashed-officials-1.6531330 Hitting mainstream. If Prig just got slagged...well he should have not been surprised in the least on the way down. Mafia rules - when you take a shot at the boss, do not miss. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Interesting coincidenсe - year ago in this day Darya Dugina was eliminated. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, BlackMoria said: D. It was the Ukrainians. Highly possible, IMO. I find it unlikely. Very little to gain and in fact helping the enemy to consolidate power. But entire African impact in next weeks/months will be extremely interesting to watch. Animating some African states to kick out Western influence was arguably only relative Russian diplomatic success from the start of this war, even if limited and overpaid overall. And quite probably one of few things that kept Prigozhin alive, so far. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 24 minutes ago, Haiduk said: The cult of brutal force, which can establish some "order and rightness" always was popular among Russians long time ago. That's why important to beat Russians on battlefield and force to sign capitulation (any peace agreement on terms of Ukraine will be capitulation for Russians). This nation like a thugs understands only the language of violent beating up and humilitation. All other they will assumed as a weakness of the opponent. This is a major problem with this war. Ukraine cannot get "that" (as you outline) as it would take invading Russia itself. Or the complete collapse of Russia at which point no one knows who to sign what and thing will likely get much worse for Ukraine. Total victory for Ukraine is nearly impossible under these circumstances no matter how much hardware and money gets sent in. Best case is to retake the lost terrain - or enough of it to send a clear message - a regime change in Russia that can 1) hold that dumpster fire of nation in one piece, 2) be far enough from Putin so that we can convince ourselves to deal with them, and 3) is able to start down the road to re-normalization (war crimes, reparations etc). More likely will be a frozen conflict - hopefully as close to the 2014 borders as possible. If it can get frozen enough, we can pull Ukraine into NATO and box up Russia until they sort themselves out...if ever. A "forced peace agreement" onto Russia is a long ask as it would basically take WW3 to enforce, and I am not sure how realistic that expectation is. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 UKR drone "Perun" (ancient Slavic god of thunder and lightning) - it's claimed Hero/Lancet analog 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 (edited) 18 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Ukraine cannot get "that" (as you outline) as it would take invading Russia itself. It's too much. Loss of Crimea and Donbas will cause deep frustration in Russian society. Their "sacral chief" didn't acomplish their whishes, so some turmoils can take place. Well... It's already a smell of something. FSB should be on wathch. Ru milblogger "13th" It's not clear either was Hero of Russia Prigozhyn onboard or not. But if he was, then pack your things and fu..k off - we don't need this war . TG "Protest movememt "Wagner, play!" There are rumors roaming about the death of Yevgeniy Prigozhyn. We speak directly - we suspect in assasination attempt Kremlin officials led by Putin! If this information confirmed we will conduct new "March of rightness" to Moscow! He betetr to be alive, this is in your interests at all. Edited August 23, 2023 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, Haiduk said: UKR drone "Perun" (ancient Slavic god of thunder and lightning) - it's claimed Hero/Lancet analog I think a lot of us are already familiar with that Slavic god around here. Due to a certain smart Aussie who goes by that name on the internet. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Russian dissident Yevgeny Prigozhin. https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1694401008326123679 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Day of Flag in Russia is celebrated in a day before, than in Ukriane - on 22nd of August. I can't imagine this in any normal country of the world 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 (edited) Robotyne is officially liberated. The flag with autograph of Valeriy Zaluzhnyi was raised by soldiers of 47th mech.brigade over the ruined building of school. "Magura" are titans! Edited August 23, 2023 by Haiduk 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 BBC has an eyewitness video of Prig's planet going into the ground. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-66597449 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 well dude failed to execute the coup, so sure, he was admired for his brute force, except he backed out and chickened out, i doubt this will make dissent in the regime, or make as big waves or any such. most people will duck their heads and go with the flow, which despite looking shaky, is now firmly back in Putin's orbit. question is, was this okay with the people supporting Wagner? or will the list of people out of windows get longer? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 41 minutes ago, The_Capt said: This is a major problem with this war. Ukraine cannot get "that" (as you outline) as it would take invading Russia itself. As Haiduk noted, if Russia loses Crimea and Donbas, that is basically Russian total defeat. Does not require invasion of the mainland Russian territories. I can't see a scenario where Russia has the combat potential to reinvade Ukraine but not defend Crimea or Donbas, or the domestic political currency to retreat from Crimea and Donbas and then attempt a new invasion of Ukraine. Whatever territory they lose, they won't regain it seems like. Meaning, if Russia loses Crimea and Donbas, worldwide sentiment will effectively abandon Russia as Russia has nothing to offer the world for its support in pursuing a 2nd invasion of Ukraine. Once Russia loses worldwide sentiment, Ukraine does not need to sign a peace treaty, Russia will need to in order to actually get some semi balance of economic recovery. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 Lancet launch 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted August 23, 2023 Share Posted August 23, 2023 (edited) Longer version. Obviously brought down by large external or internal explosion, but looks more like missile interception to me: Edited August 23, 2023 by akd 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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