How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I never bought this parallel analogy.

Yeah, fair enough. Any analogy can be made to fail if you really want it to, and I accept that the Russians are not in an existential fight in the way the Germans were in 44/45.

The point of making the analogy with is that morale is a weird thing; sometimes brittle but it can also be absurdly resilient on both an individual and national level, and sitting around waiting for morale to break probably isn't a great plan.

Take the Argentinians in the Falklands for another example; they didn't fight well, but they did fight, right up to the point where the paras were walking into Stanley.

Edited August 22, 2023 by JonS

[Fenris]

More today from ISW re low RU morale and supply.  There's also an interesting paragraph on machinations within the Kremlin.

Quote

Russian milbloggers continue to indicate that Russian forces lack equipment and suffer from low morale along the entire frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces – especially the 20th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) and 2nd Combined Arms Army (Central Military District), both operating in eastern Ukraine – lack light transportation vehicles, which inhibits them from using equipment and operating effectively and reduces their morale.[10] The milblogger claimed that Russian personnel must register their privately-owned vehicles with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), after which their vehicles disappear or get transferred elsewhere.[11] The milblogger claimed that Russian commanders regularly punish servicemen who keep their vehicles for minor administrative violations and that Russian personnel feel that they are “at war” with their commanders.[12] A Russian milblogger claimed on August 21 that Russian authorities have not provided Russian forces operating in the Kherson direction with boats and have ignored milbloggers’ ongoing appeals since July 2.[13] “Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky claimed that Russian forces continue to face problems with counterbattery operations after Russian forces began experiencing artillery systems shortages and claimed that Russian forces began to receive “outdated” D-20 towed gun-howitzers.[14] Khodakovsky claimed that the “outdated” D-20 howitzers are not suitable for counterbattery combat, possibly referring to barrel wear from constant use that makes tube artillery less accurate over time.[15] Multiple milbloggers have claimed that Russian forces lack adequate counterbattery capabilities, especially since Commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army Major General Ivan Popov’s dismissal in early July.[16] Another Russian milblogger, however, claimed that Russian forces are improving artillery tactics and that artillery units have become far more accurate than they were a year ago.[17] The milblogger may be suggesting that mobilized personnel who did not have prior military experience have learned to accurately strike targets. Ongoing complaints from Russian personnel suggest that the Russian MoD is unwilling or unable to address persistent equipment shortages and problems with low morale.

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-21-2023

[JonS]

45 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

The Casablanca Conference demanded unconditional surrender of Germany.

Roosevelt directed his unconditional surrender demand at all three Axis powers in Jan '43, then promptly ignored it 9 months later when Italy surrendered, then it was ignored again 2 years after that when Japan surrendered. Unconditional surrender was never a pristine rose that was utterly inviolate.

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, JonS said:

then promptly ignored it 9 months later when Italy surrendered, then it was ignored again 2 years after that when Japan surrendered.

What were the conditions of the Italian surrender? Mussolini was hanging upside down from a butcher's hook. Japan Soviet Union was still neutral at the time of the Potsdam declaration 26th July 1945 the time of the demand of the unconditional surrender of Japan.

[Fenris]

On 8/21/2023 at 11:55 AM, Artkin said:

But who volunteered to drive the truck?

Volunteered?  I'm inclined to think UKR simply paid some poor bastard to haul a load of cargo in his truck.  Would the GRU have any scruples paying a russian driver to do that?

[kraze]

On 8/21/2023 at 4:55 AM, Artkin said:

But who volunteered to drive the truck?

don't need to volunteer when the delivery job order pays well

Edited August 22, 2023 by kraze

[cesmonkey]

Nice to hear this, but they wasted at least a year coming to this decision:

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3499633/us-open-to-training-ukrainian-f-16-pilots-if-needed/
 

Quote

The U.S. would be willing to participate in the training of Ukrainian pilots, Singh said, if there were more Ukrainian pilots in need of training than what the Europeans are able to handle.

"[We're] open to training existing pilots if capacity is reached in Europe," Singh said. "That's the condition. So, if Denmark and the Netherlands are taking the lead on training, if they just do not have the capacity ... to train as many pilots as Ukraine wants to send or plans to send, then we will ... help train stateside."

The Ukrainian pilots will need to go though "significant English-language training," to be ready to fly the F-16, and that will take some time, Singh said. Additionally, the total number of pilots who will need training will be determined by the Ukrainians.

"Ukraine will be the one, and I think it is still putting together how many pilots they have that are going to be able to be trained," she said. "I don't have those numbers yet."

 

[cesmonkey]

Interesting tidbid from WarGonzo's morning summary:
https://t.me/wargonzo/14507
 

Quote

In the Ugledarsky sector, Ukrainian troops from Staromayorsky are trying to surround the advanced Russian units that are holding a ledge in the Priyutnoye area. The threat is real.

 

[cesmonkey]

Reportedly, Russians covering their trenches with wood to protect against cluster munitions:
https://t.me/zvezdanews/127686
 

Quote

The fighters showed fortifications against cluster shells in the Krasnolimansk direction.

Here is the first line of defense in the Krasnolimansk direction. The enemy uses various munitions, including prohibited cluster munitions. Because of this, dugouts and trenches had to be modernized. Their length is about ten kilometers. A special wooden canopy saves from cassettes.

“This, in principle, is enough to hide from the cassette tape. When it explodes overhead, there are small fragments, so they all remain here,” shows the deputy commander of the battalion with the call sign “Sobol”.

On the front line here is the Akhmat unit. The soldiers built fortifications quickly. The structures are dense, with several rolls of logs. The enemy is nearby and fires constantly.

 

[Carolus]

6 hours ago, Jorge MC said:

 

For the sake of curiosity I took a look at that YouTube channel. It seems to be the same two video titles for the last 9 months.

"Ukraine is about to collapse"

"Russian Army destroys Ukrainian Army"

"Ukraine is collapsing now"

"Russian Army annihilates Ukrainan Forces"

etc.

Sounds like the German Wochenschau from the 1940s, just replace Russian Army with Victorious Wehrmacht.

Truly, seems to be another Western guy like Scott Ritter who sold himself, body and soul, to Russian media.

Really not worth to check out.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

Yeah, fair enough. Any analogy can be made to fail if you really want it to, and I accept that the Russians are not in an existential fight in the way the Germans were in 44/45.

The point of making the analogy with is that morale is a weird thing; sometimes brittle but it can also be absurdly resilient on both an individual and national level, and sitting around waiting for morale to break probably isn't a great plan.

Take the Argentinians in the Falklands for another example; they didn't fight well, but they did fight, right up to the point where the paras were walking into Stanley.

Now the Falklands is a very good analogy for this war…lead with that one.  As to morale, well here we get into human collective certainty again.  Most wars are really collisions of human collective fiction, not based in physical reality.  “They are Muslim, we are Christian.”  “That is our land.”  “Our Sky Chicken told us to”.  These may be total fiction but they still have tremendous power.  If we give up on certainty it means we have to live with uncertainty and we do not like that at all.  Morale is really as much about clinging to a certainty as anything else.

For Russia they definitely are clinging to certainty and talked themselves into this whole thing.  As to RA morale, well something is holding it together, I will give them that.

[Beleg85]

9 hours ago, billbindc said:

Certainly a discretionary war but one that the average Russian isn't hurt by in an extremely direct way while it scratches a long standing ressentiment itch. The Russian national project is motivated by that feeling and Russians themselves sense that this is something of a last hurrah. Their economy is essentially resource extraction, their population is sliding inexorably down and their sense of themselves as a great power is slipping away. Folks raised on the folk ideology of the USSR will let other people's kids die for a long time if they think they have a chance of reversing those trends. So...not existential in terms of material national survival but more than a little bit existential in cultural terms. Why else would Solovyov and his ilk yatter on about using nukes or extending "Western Russia" to the docks of Nice? The fantasy has enormous political power in Russia. That is why Putin is doing it in the first place.

All very true. Worth to note that perception matters here. Fact of waging conventional war is viewed differently in big Western nations, smaller Central European (or Eastern European ones) and in turn very differently in Russia. First see it chiefly as a tool or different - often uncofmortable- kind of business; second consider it mortal danger for their very existence (so almost every conflict is existential by nature); while Russians mainly see it as extension of their greatness, and largely don't care if it is not touching them too much in private lives.

Living memory of Great Patriotic War and "we will overcome" mentallity also plays unfortunatelly significant part of muscovite psyche, so western standards cannot be freely applied here. They don't care about war as long as they can afford to go on vacations somewhere once a year (I am not even kidding: right to leasure time, inheritaed after USSR, is considered almost sacred in this society, and hitting it by sanctions would probably break them faster than targeting military complex).

12 hours ago, Fenris said:

Example of caustic relations back home - something else to sap morale.

Yup, but video should be viewed here as educational nitpick from "true young heroes" toward "ungrateful pacifistic hipster traitors in large metropolis"; that's why Pegov put it on his channel. Muscovites and especially Peterburgians are naturally considered most savvy and "worldly" populations in this country, so mental tension between them and country folks is quite constant element already for many generations. Previous rulers also often skillfully played on these notions when it suit them.

Also remember folks- constant complaining, blaming others and even quarelling among individuals and groups is much more accepted state of things in Russia than it is in the West, and not necessarly means weakened morale.

Living example of this cultural feature:

Edited August 22, 2023 by Beleg85

[Teufel]

Air defense did it’s work according to the Russians. I guess they haven’t seen these satellite images.

Not seen this type of discussion before but nothing surprises me on the topic of China. Not one bit.

Speaking of fresh troops for the Russian trenches, even less surprising than the Chinese. Good to have something to back up assumptions of forced mobilization. 

Last but not least, the numbers are not the important part but fact that it’s actively happening is.

Edited August 22, 2023 by Teufel

[Teufel]

This one goes without subtitles but in short, these civilians were trapped for the last 1,5 years behind enemy lines. Needless to say they suffered lack of water, electricity and “bread”. Taken out of the village before being able to call relatives from safety after evacuation. Again, their emotions speak more than their words.

 

[cesmonkey]

Ukrainian Konstantin Mashovets discusses the current state of the war with Ukraine's channel 5 for about an hour.

 

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Now the Falklands is a very good analogy for this war…lead with that one.  As to morale, well here we get into human collective certainty again.  Most wars are really collisions of human collective fiction, not based in physical reality.  “They are Muslim, we are Christian.”  “That is our land.”  “Our Sky Chicken told us to”.  These may be total fiction but they still have tremendous power.  If we give up on certainty it means we have to live with uncertainty and we do not like that at all.  Morale is really as much about clinging to a certainty as anything else.

For Russia they definitely are clinging to certainty and talked themselves into this whole thing.  As to RA morale, well something is holding it together, I will give them that.

In many ways the Falklands are the perfect analogy. The one thing I would quibble with is the fact the fighting was on small isolated islands meant that retreat was simply not an option. You could fight, or you could surrender. 

2 hours ago, Teufel said:

Air defense did it’s work according to the Russians. I guess they haven’t seen these satellite images.

Not seen this type of discussion before but nothing surprises me on the topic of China. Not one bit.

Speaking of fresh troops for the Russian trenches, even less surprising than the Chinese. Good to have something to back up assumptions of forced mobilization. 

Last but not least, the numbers are not the important part but fact that it’s actively happening is.

Also, whatever you want to say about the Argentinian forces in the Falklands, they were Spanish speaking Argentinians and understood themselves to be such. What is holding together units assembled from this sort of round up is beyond me, half of them are probably illegal immigrants from the Stans. On some level I really do think it works because these guys have been abused their whole lives, and come from places where that has never NOT been true. I mean we can have an intellectual argument about the qualities of various principalities in Central Asia before the Mongols, and then the Czars wrecked it utterly, but that sort of proves my point.

How long do people think it will take for a real labor shortage to be felt in Moscow, and Saint Petersburg? I do hold very strongly to my opinion that those are the only two places in Russia that matter at all.

Edited August 22, 2023 by dan/california

[Kraft]

42 minutes ago, dan/california said:

How long do people think it will take for a real labor shortage to be felt in Moscow, and Saint Petersburg? I do hold very strongly to my opinion that those are the only two places in Russia that matter at all.

That is not going to have any kind of effect really. In specialist branches, where more people are needed due to increased war demands possibly, but those arent generally sent to the front, just not being educated/trained fast enough to allow for the expansions

A large part of the casualties are from DPR/LNR, then mostly convicts, neither will be missed by anyone in Russia. Following that are contracts, those are primarily eastern/minority, also not going to be missed. So in Big Urban cities no real change.

Then take into account that these cities have combined 17.6mil population, ignoring working age and just taking the vastly overstated UA number of 250k dead and assuming they all come exclusively from Moscow/StP gives you 1.4% lost. Considering factors above, probably closer to 0.0x% in those cities.

 

Edited August 22, 2023 by Kraft

[cesmonkey]

Ukrainians begin training in Denmark:

https://www.forsvaret.dk/da/nyheder/2023/forsvaret-har-pabegyndt-traningsforlob-af-ukrainske-piloter/?fbclid=IwAR2HBXkKdutt1VsKLOl_17UNSiQaT77L1V49fNTUKOEYrSqL1qiZwvcBLOo

Quote

Ukrainian pilots, technical personnel and support personnel have now arrived at Skrydstrup Air Force Base, where in the coming months they will receive training in basic skills and prerequisites for flying, servicing and maintaining F-16 combat aircraft.

It concerns 73 Ukrainians. Of these, eight are pilots, while the rest are technical personnel and support personnel.

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Carolus said:

For the sake of curiosity I took a look at that YouTube channel. It seems to be the same two video titles for the last 9 months.

...

Truly, seems to be another Western guy like Scott Ritter who sold himself, body and soul, to Russian media.

Really not worth to check out.

Yeah, Macgregor has been a darling of the far right since the war started.  He's so out of touch with reality that Fox News stopped having him on as a commentator pretty early in the war, despite still favoring an anti-Ukrainian narrative.  He has nothing of value to offer anybody who is trying to understand/follow the obvious war in Ukraine, but he is relevant to the other war (the one against truth and democratic principles) that is being waged by the far right.  He is both a spiritual leader as well as a shameless profiteer.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

49 minutes ago, Kraft said:

That is not going to have any kind of effect really. In specialist branches, where more people are needed due to increased war demands possibly, but those arent generally sent to the front, just not being educated/trained fast enough to allow for the expansions

A large part of the casualties are from DPR/LNR, then mostly convicts, neither will be missed by anyone in Russia. Following that are contracts, those are primarily eastern/minority, also not going to be missed. So in Big Urban cities no real change.

Then take into account that these cities have combined 17.6mil population, ignoring working age and just taking the vastly overstated UA number of 250k dead and assuming they all come exclusively from Moscow/StP gives you 1.4% lost. Considering factors above, probably closer to 0.0x% in those cities.

 

I agree that the Russian economy isn't going to collapse because of the men sent to Ukraine who do not return.  However, there was a tight labor market before the war and now it is very bad according to regular reports out of Russia.  The reason is cumulative and compounding loss of workers because of the war generally.

Roundups of migrants for forced use in Ukraine has been happening since last year.  Many migrants went back to their home countries and others who would have gone to Russia are not going.  A massive number of Russians left at the start of the war, many of them in their prime working age and possessing critical skill sets (especially IT related).  Then there's the war veterans who are back into the civilian population but are mentally and/or physically unfit for work. 

Collectively this has removed perhaps as much as several million from the workforce.  This is significant and it isn't surprising that it is having a noticeable impact on the Russian economy.  The more desperate Russia is for manpower, the more it compounds this problem.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

All very true. Worth to note that perception matters here. Fact of waging conventional war is viewed differently in big Western nations, smaller Central European (or Eastern European ones) and in turn very differently in Russia. First see it chiefly as a tool or different - often uncofmortable- kind of business; second consider it mortal danger for their very existence (so almost every conflict is existential by nature); while Russians mainly see it as extension of their greatness, and largely don't care if it is not touching them too much in private lives.

All of this.  I remember reading things from Russians as far back as Chechnya that really opened my eyes to this.  When it was pointed out that they moved in the military to crush a true and popular separatist movement, the answer was "well, we see them as part of Russia so of course we did".  When it was pointed out that they were destroying the people and infrastructure in the process they would respond "of course.  That's what happens to people that don't do what we want them to."  We see the same mentality about Ukraine over and over again, with Russians viewing Ukraine as part of Russia, the Ukrainians don't have a say, and if it requires killing every last Ukrainian and destroying every last building to get them back under Russian control, so be it.  Ukrainians were given a choice, in the minds of Russians, and they chose destruction over subjugation.

Back to Billbindc's point about perception being more important than reality, it's absolutely true.  Russia believes it has the absolute right to do whatever it wants to do and anybody that so much as questions that is perceived as a threat.  Exhibit A is NATO because it exists explicitly to prevent Russia from militarily expanding its borders.  Since Russia believes expansion is necessary to thrive, in this mentality NATO is oppressing Russia's real potential.  Ergo, in Russia's eyes NATO is an existential threat.

I remember back in the 2014 mess the Obama Admin kept saying that Russia should not view things as a "zero sum game".  Other Western leaders said the same thing.  They argued there were ways for Russia to have its reasonable needs met through negotiations instead of violence.  It was pointed out then by some, and far more now, that Russia truly believes in "zero sum game" and therefore can not be reasoned with.  Even suggesting Russia compromise on what it wants is akin to asking it to surrender in its mind.  Someone who views the act of negotiation as defeat can not be reasoned with.

Steve

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

All of this.  I remember reading things from Russians as far back as Chechnya that really opened my eyes to this.  When it was pointed out that they moved in the military to crush a true and popular separatist movement, the answer was "well, we see them as part of Russia so of course we did".  When it was pointed out that they were destroying the people and infrastructure in the process they would respond "of course.  That's what happens to people that don't do what we want them to."  We see the same mentality about Ukraine over and over again, with Russians viewing Ukraine as part of Russia, the Ukrainians don't have a say, and if it requires killing every last Ukrainian and destroying every last building to get them back under Russian control, so be it.  Ukrainians were given a choice, in the minds of Russians, and they chose destruction over subjugation.

Back to Billbindc's point about perception being more important than reality, it's absolutely true.  Russia believes it has the absolute right to do whatever it wants to do and anybody that so much as questions that is perceived as a threat.  Exhibit A is NATO because it exists explicitly to prevent Russia from militarily expanding its borders.  Since Russia believes expansion is necessary to thrive, in this mentality NATO is oppressing Russia's real potential.  Ergo, in Russia's eyes NATO is an existential threat.

I remember back in the 2014 mess the Obama Admin kept saying that Russia should not view things as a "zero sum game".  Other Western leaders said the same thing.  They argued there were ways for Russia to have its reasonable needs met through negotiations instead of violence.  It was pointed out then by some, and far more now, that Russia truly believes in "zero sum game" and therefore can not be reasoned with.  Even suggesting Russia compromise on what it wants is akin to asking it to surrender in its mind.  Someone who views the act of negotiation as defeat can not be reasoned with.

Steve

It's worth noting that Russian absolutist colonialism was a thing lots of Russians were themselves in denial about 15 years ago. Chechnya was 'Caucasian' and folded neatly into a War on Terror storyline that allowed Russia to imagine that it was engaged in a civilizational fight alongside rather than against the West. Ukraine looked like a problem that could be finessed rather than bludgeoned into submission at an exorbitant cost. Russian nationalism hadn't yet fully curdled into resentful fascism because Russians themselves imagined that they might provide a positive attraction for neighboring Slavs. When the flattery failed, the suitor in Moscow turned to rape.    

 

 

[Haiduk]

9 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Reportedly, Russians covering their trenches with wood to protect against cluster munitions:
https://t.me/zvezdanews/127686
 

 

Old, but gold. The same did Russian army during Russo-Japanese war 120 yeas ago

Edited August 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Several videos of figting in Robotyne

This video of several days ago - two UKR Bradleys fight in central and southern part of Robotyne: 

Likely the same time or around - Bradley is coming for help to UKR squad, having wounded. M2 surrounding all around with smoke screen and shootong out the houses, where Russians can sit, also making smoke screen at houses, blocking LOS to Russians. At the end crew of Bradley likely spotted Russians, who tried to crawl out from the house - the gun of IFV leans down and shoots the ground near the bush and buildin. You sholdn't confuse themselves with "white tape" on the arm of one soldier - he is wounded and this is bandage

The tank from the second video, which several times has been appering in the cadre, later (or recently? but it so far was immobile) was hit by Lancet. The quality is not good - Russian milblogger Rybar claims this is M-55S, and by his opinion  these tanks, which recently used 47th brigade were returned to their composition from Kreminna due to heavy losses of Leopards. Our OSINTers claim Russians hit own T-90M, but I think this is not it. Russian units hadn't T-90M on this diretion (at least in recent days) and this tank faced to the south.  

Upd. But as far as on 7th of Aug 47th brigade issued a video that they hit Russian "T-72" in this place. DefMon now also recognized T-90M in this tank. I give up, interesting who could have T-90M... %) 

 

Edited August 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

While 47th brigade is pusing back Russians in Robotyme area, 82nd air-assault is advancing near Verbove. Russian TG yesterday reported "Russian command for the sake of saving lives of our soildiers was forces to withdraw our trops from several positions near Verbove"

But advance of 82nd brigade is not easy.

Press-secreter of MoD Hanna Maliar again warned journalists, which too much told about 82nd brigade and where it operates (there was a big article in some US media) - because of this brigade positions were bombed by guided bombs five times for yestrerday. Russian, feeling their "skirmish line" defense on the werge of complete breaching, rapidly increased number of airstrikes. For last five days they dropped 150 guided bombs on UKR positions and on the rears - Mala Tokmachka, Novodanylivka, Orikhiv

Today Russians also bombed with guided bombs Zmiinyi island and there are rumors Russian jet has sank UKR boat near the island with a missile, but no information from otehr sources.