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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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17 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Full yesterday video of elimination of two Russian squads of 83rd air-assault brigade in southern part of Klishchhivka. First squad at the beginning of video already almost wiped out, BMD-2 as "taxi" disembarks next group and runs away. Next probably UKR mortars shell Russians from the heights near the village and since some time the second squad already dead. 

 

 

Another part of video "how it started" - Russian armor was ambushed, though first AT projectille missed. Interesting, that now it's claimed troopers of "Tsunami" assault regiment of United assault brigade "Liut' " (eng. Fury, Rage) of National Police of  "Offensive Guard' participated in this action.

 

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UKR SOF fighters of 3rd SOF regiment take POWs from 247th air-assault regiment of 7th air-assault division during fighting in Staromajorske village (V.Novosilka salient). According to General Staff report, UKR troops has success here. Unofficial sources say Russians withdrew on southern part of village, UKR troops control northern part and partially central.

 

Edited by Haiduk
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Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, @annamaliar, says:

https://t.me/annamaliar/961

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✔️the number of our casualties on the offensive lines is much lower than that of the enemy. On Bakhmutskyi, we die 8 times less than the enemy. In Berdyansk and Mariupol it is 5.3 times less.
This is despite the fact that usually the side that advances loses more.

 

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Sorry, I'm not sure the whole thing had been posted already. I remember seeing only the end of it.

Anyway, this situation is 100% accurately simulated by CM (I know, I tried too often): rush your IFV with 'fast' into an enemy position, dismount and then die.

, di

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NYT's view of the war. Russia claims to have repelled attack. We shall see.

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Thanks for the post:

The Hollywood-tailored excitement of the Battles of Kyiv and Kharkiv may have unduly raised the bar for what Ukraine can accomplish in short order. Yet the Battle of Kherson, begun in August 2022, was a long, hard slog, the bulk of which garnered comparatively little contemporaneous front-page coverage — until all of a sudden it did. That operation culminated four months later with an announced Russian withdrawal.

Good summary of the past. But does not predict the future by taking into account the combat abilities of both sides as they exist today. It's hopeful, but not analytical. But the article does mention what we all have to be aware of. In war things can stay same the same for a long time and then change very rapidly. The question becomes, which side is best positioned to obtain a positive discontinuity in the direction of the war. I can't say it's 100% on the side of Ukraine. Russian still has a lot of say in the matter at least in the short term. Maybe it's about whose tactics can preserve combat power and then project it at a critical point in time an space. If this is indeed critical, the UA will be in good shape long term. 

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/07/26/defense-spending-budget-military-ready/

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression has revealed something astonishing to him — the myriad defects of his conventional armed forces. It has, however, awakened the United States to something alarming: Europe’s largest conflict since World War II has shown that the U.S. defense industrial base, which manufactured the materiel that produced victory in 1945, is inadequate for the world almost eight decades later.

 

George F Will of all people....

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23 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian EW asset R-330 Zhytel' was hit, though with second shell

 

They didn't cover the tracks they made in the fields when driving to position? A huge circle next to their parking location, looks like that's how they maneuvered into the trees?

Might as well painted a target on themselves...

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28 minutes ago, mosuri said:

They didn't cover the tracks they made in the fields when driving to position? A huge circle next to their parking location, looks like that's how they maneuvered into the trees?

Might as well painted a target on themselves...

Interesting observation with the tracks, thanks for sharing! One question of my own, fairly advanced EW system of proven effectiveness in range of 20-30km.

The drone detecting it evidently didn’t fall out of the sky. Uncle Google suggests the system operates <2GHz which is below modern 2.4 and 5.8 GHz frequencies. Guessing the FPV drones and modern means of communication are all outside of it’s capabilities then?

Edit: Antenna appears to be raised if one looks closely around 20 seconds into the video. Same Uncle as above informs this usually takes 20-30 min to ready. Drone was probably not effected, thus could be observed tracks giving the position away. Question of frequency remains.

Edited by Teufel
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13 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Interesting observation with the tracks, thanks for sharing! One question of my own, fairly advanced EW system of proven effectiveness in range of 20-30km.

The drone detecting it evidently didn’t fall out of the sky. The 330 never had time to deploy after arriving, thus being tracked before parking? Can’t jam channels of drones, >2GHz?

The concept of ISR superiority in action. We see you, the minute you park, we will kill you.

Edited by dan/california
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13 minutes ago, Teufel said:

Interesting observation with the tracks, thanks for sharing! One question of my own, fairly advanced EW system of proven effectiveness in range of 20-30km.

The drone detecting it evidently didn’t fall out of the sky. The 330 never had time to deploy after arriving, thus being tracked before parking? Can’t jam channels of drones, >2GHz?

It seems to me that fake tracks ought to be their own art form by this point. There isn't all that much you can do about leaving real ones.

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Next Russian milblogger was killed. "Carlson", the author of Carlson-News TG. He was commander of UAV company of special rapid reaction detachment "Akhmat" of Rosgvardiya (also known as Special force "Akhmat", the unit, opened for all citizens of Russia, not only Chechens, like other "Akhmat" units). Was killed during the battle for Klishchiivka.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Next Russian milblogger was killed. "Carlson", the author of Carlson-News TG. He was commander of UAV company of special rapid reaction detachment "Akhmat" of Rosgvardiya (also known as Special force "Akhmat", the unit, opened for all citizens of Russia, not only Chechens, like other "Akhmat" units). Was killed during the battle for Klishchiivka.

 

 

Has something changed in EW or hacking of Russian systems, or are cluster munitions a LOT better.? There seems to have been a lot more of these guys being demilitarized in the last week.

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42 minutes ago, Teufel said:

The drone detecting it evidently didn’t fall out of the sky. Uncle Google suggests the system operates <2GHz which is below modern 2.4 and 5.8 GHz frequencies. Guessing the FPV drones and modern means of communication are all outside of it’s capabilities then?

Numerous Russian EW assets have own purposes and own spheres of usage. EW is not = "drone supressing" R-330Zh "Zhytel' " doesn't have tasks and capabilities to fight with drones. This is system for SIGINT analizing, supressing of radioequipment, portable satellite comms receivers and GPS devices. 

It was targeted with special developed UAV "Shark", having other spectre of working frequencies, than commercial Mavic with 2,4/5,8 GHz (though Russians already wrote UKR engineers already can slightly change working frequencies of commercial drones, which reducing effectiveness of anti-drone EW assets and anti-drone rifles)

Edited by Haiduk
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Russian vehicle of "Borisoglebsk-2" EW complex was targeted by "Leleka-100" (eng. "Stork") UAV of 128th mountain-assault brigade on Vasylivka direction, Zaporizhzhia ob;last. This UAV like and "Furia" were adopted in UKR army service as far as in pre-war time. Leleka is good, but it camera stabilization still terrible. I wonder why designer team didn't any attempts to improve this for almost 7 years of production... So if you see the video with crazy shaky camera on zoom - this is 99 % "Leleka-100" ) 

"Borisoglebsk-2" is a large complex of nine diffeernt vehicles. By purpose it close to "Zhytel' ", but it more modern and has more wide capabilities. 

  

 

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We had mass missile strike this evening. Looks like main efforts of Russians was Starokostiantyniv airfield in Khmelnitskyi oblast - the base of Su-24M, Storm Shadow carriers. Russian fleet, 8 Tu-95 and 4 MiG-31K were involved. Air Force Command noted, in this time some Russian missiles have flown with sophisticated trajectories, sometime turning on 180 degrees to confuse AD.

Launched missiles:

- 3 Kalibrs (3 intercepted)

-36 Kh-101/555 (33 intercepted)

- 4 Kinzhals (no interceptions)

Kyiv wasn't under attack, though probably Kinzhal hit something in Kyiv oblast,  but no info. There were reports about explosions in Zhytomyr, Khmelnitskyi oblast, Kirovohrad oblast. Also no information either all Kinzhals were launched on airfield or at different targets.

Crusie missile, shot down near Dnipro city.

 Image

Edited by Haiduk
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