How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

12 minutes ago, Carolus said:

this is not a "defanging", but part of the deal. 

What will he be fighting with as a separate force? Just small arms? 

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, JonS said:

*cough*1861*cough*

And how many Confederate Generals, or members of the South's government were hung, and/or tortured to death after the war? The slaves were "freed" and within twenty years you would have been hard pressed to tell that the South had lost the war walking down the street in small town Georgia. The legalisms of getting the cotton picked changed, the de facto business of getting it done changed very little. It took us another hundred years, and a large boost from ever more mechanized agriculture to sort it out for real.

If the South had won there would have been three governments in North America instead of two. I think the vast weight of probability is that this would have made the last ~170 years much worse for almost everyone. At the same time the South never had the slightest intention to occupy the North, their war aims were entirely focused on succession not conquest. 

Russia had a written plan to kill the entire upper layer of Ukrainian society, and subject the rest to something at least as bad as what China has done in Xinjiang. I argue that these two situations are not actually comparable. indeed the fact the they are not comparable is why the Confederacy was able to accept defeat, however grudgingly. The weird echo of the Civil War in our current politics is a whole different discussion that Steve probably doesn't want us to have on this thread.

Edited July 12, 2023 by dan/california

[Lethaface]

To bring the subject back to Ukraine, I still don't expect a Ukr big push and Bakhmut still seems like the most promising area. I hope I'm wrong on the big push, because I only see it happening if it's successful. 

[womble]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Unexpected resupply of weapons for the Russkies?

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/wagner-turns-over-2000-heavy-weapons-including-tanks-sam-systems

If Wagner truppen are being signed up to the regular Russian line battalions, they'll need something to fight with. Maybe it's more a transfer from a "unit" that's being stood down to units that will absorb the personnel from that retired org heading.

It's not really resupply if they already had those things, lost the use of them for a chunk of time and then got them back. And they did have the use of them, under Wagner's aegis, until Prig went all huffy.

[Carolus]

21 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

What will he be fighting with as a separate force? Just small arms? 

Well, yes, if they gave away everything else - they also gave away 20.000 pieces of small arms by the way, as it is claimed and unless these are unused stocks, that is almost one small arm for every Wagner merc that is left.

So where are they going as a seperate force now? Maybe they just get to sit this one out for now as a separate force and whoever wants to fight needs to join the regular RA under Teplisnky.

Keep in mind, I am saying this "If Girkin is right". He might not be.

[kevinkin]

 

8 minutes ago, Carolus said:

So where are they going as a seperate force now?

That's the point. So if that guy is correct, Prig wasn't forcibly de-fanged. He was neutered by agreement with Putin. He'll be back a "re-made man". 

[FancyCat]

How lovely incompetency is not punished if this is true. 

Quote

Russian channels report that the commander of the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army of Southern Military District, Major General Ivan Popov, was removed from his post. The units of 58th CAA are deployed on the Zaporizhzhia front, where intense battles are taking place.

The word is that Gen. Popov had an argument with the Chief of General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, Gen. Gerasimov. Popov reportedly voiced his opinion about the need to rotate RU forces on the frontline. He was accused of "disinformation and alarmism," and dismissed.

Major General Ivan Popov released an audio recording, in which he confirmed that he was relieved of command. "Our army could not be broken from the front by the Ukrainian military, we were stabbed in the back by the senior commander [Gen. Gerasimov]."

 

 

[womble]

The dispersal of Wagner might've been part of the agreement. Their expertise is sorely needed. Perhaps they'll be distributed as cadre to existing units that need some on-the-job-instruction. It's almost a ready-made NCO corps (or at least it might look like one to someone unfamiliar with the actual job requirements of a "decent" NCO corps). Cadre is one of the missions that mercenaries traditionally fulfill, after all.

Also/in combination, weren't Russia sending troops to Belarus to train? So a camp of battle-hardened Wagnerites there might be a good start on a twisted version of a Russian Fort Moore.

 

Edited July 12, 2023 by womble

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

I guess the crux is in semantics, see my previous post. There is overlap but that isn't the 'root cause/interest' for the warring parties.

I actually suspect it was for one of them: Russia.  Russia’s reasons for starting this war are opaque but we do know they did not need any of Ukraine’s resources, the line of conspiracies (bio labs, or whatever John Kettler was going on about may he rest in peace) has dried up and if it was to shore up the Putin regime this is one helluva way to go about that.

I suspect this war had a large portion attributable to Russian need to push back on the West and western “encroachment”.  Along with basically declaring the global system of order no longer valid because if you are a revisionist state…you revise.  So for one party the root interest for this war does kinda seem to be centred on the West, Ukraine got caught in the middle in a lot of ways.  All war is communication and in many ways Ukraine was (and is) the medium, not the message itself.

[Lethaface]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

I actually suspect it was for one of them: Russia.  Russia’s reasons for starting this war are opaque but we do know they did not need any of Ukraine’s resources, the line of conspiracies (bio labs, or whatever John Kettler was going on about may he rest in peace) has dried up and if it was to shore up the Putin regime this is one helluva way to go about that.

I suspect this war had a large portion attributable to Russian need to push back on the West and western “encroachment”.  Along with basically declaring the global system of order no longer valid because if you are a revisionist state…you revise.  So for one party the root interest for this war does kinda seem to be centred on the West, Ukraine got caught in the middle in a lot of ways.  All war is communication and in many ways Ukraine was (and is) the medium, not the message itself.

FWIW, I don't think the root interest of this war was centred on the West. The root interest was centered around the vested interest surrounding Ukraine (which also lead to CMBS), perhaps the perceived weakness of the West was instrumental in Russia going forward with the ordeal; I'll give you that.

[Lethaface]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I actually suspect it was for one of them: Russia.  Russia’s reasons for starting this war are opaque but we do know they did not need any of Ukraine’s resources, the line of conspiracies (bio labs, or whatever John Kettler was going on about may he rest in peace) has dried up and if it was to shore up the Putin regime this is one helluva way to go about that.

I suspect this war had a large portion attributable to Russian need to push back on the West and western “encroachment”.  Along with basically declaring the global system of order no longer valid because if you are a revisionist state…you revise.  So for one party the root interest for this war does kinda seem to be centred on the West, Ukraine got caught in the middle in a lot of ways.  All war is communication and in many ways Ukraine was (and is) the medium, not the message itself.

PS Maybe we in the West sometimes communicate to ourselves (and or others) that we have more to do with with the plot of 'as the world turns' than we actually do have influence on it.

[kevinkin]

Member of the Ukrainian Parliament is reporting and it was picked up by the Post:

Lt. Gen. Oleg Tsokov died Monday when a barrage of cruise missiles obliterated the Dune Hotel in Berdiansk in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, where Russian military commanders had been quartered.

“The British ‘Storm Shadow’ came to visit accurately,” he commented, referring to the long-range cruise missiles jointly developed by the UK and France that were supplied to Ukraine in May.

[FancyCat]

Good reminder, as much as NATO is being rightly shamed in some aspects, we must recognize how both Ukraine and the West have rapidly changed the rhetoric and type of supplies to Ukraine without provoking some mythical Russian nuclear strike as some have warned of.

Quote

Well, I suppose another takeaway is this: Last summer, as the Aspen Security Forum, Sullivan was asked about ATACMS and suggested they'd lead to World War III. This summer Biden said Ukraine already has the equivalent (not really) and he's mulling it over. Apocalypse nyet.

 

[Lethaface]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I actually suspect it was for one of them: Russia.  Russia’s reasons for starting this war are opaque but we do know they did not need any of Ukraine’s resources, the line of conspiracies (bio labs, or whatever John Kettler was going on about may he rest in peace) has dried up and if it was to shore up the Putin regime this is one helluva way to go about that.

I suspect this war had a large portion attributable to Russian need to push back on the West and western “encroachment”.  Along with basically declaring the global system of order no longer valid because if you are a revisionist state…you revise.  So for one party the root interest for this war does kinda seem to be centred on the West, Ukraine got caught in the middle in a lot of ways.  All war is communication and in many ways Ukraine was (and is) the medium, not the message itself.

Ps 2 at the same time obviously everything is 'in the mix'. Russia's position on the world ladder sure has it's influence on their outlook. So perhaps it's a bit like a chicken vs egg theory framework (did JK pass away? If so may he RIP, he had a good soul imo).

Edited July 12, 2023 by Lethaface

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

Over at War Zone this afternoon:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/wagner-turns-over-2000-heavy-weapons-including-tanks-sam-systems

Prig de-fanged?

 

Just posted this above, 2 hours ago. Carolus replied that the “unused” weapon systems may not amount to a significant amount, although individually still potentially lethal. His point about crews though might not be on point considering that any Wagners may well have accepted the order to fold into the MOD forces.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I actually suspect it was for one of them: Russia.  Russia’s reasons for starting this war are opaque but we do know they did not need any of Ukraine’s resources, the line of conspiracies (bio labs, or whatever John Kettler was going on about may he rest in peace) has dried up and if it was to shore up the Putin regime this is one helluva way to go about that.

I suspect this war had a large portion attributable to Russian need to push back on the West and western “encroachment”.  Along with basically declaring the global system of order no longer valid because if you are a revisionist state…you revise.  So for one party the root interest for this war does kinda seem to be centred on the West, Ukraine got caught in the middle in a lot of ways.  All war is communication and in many ways Ukraine was (and is) the medium, not the message itself.

I have said for quite some time that all the West wanted to was ignore Russia, and that Russia will regret making that impossible.

Edited July 12, 2023 by dan/california

[billbindc]

BLUF: Prigozhin won.

 

[chuckdyke]

4 hours ago, Lethaface said:

two bob each way attitude

Two Bob is going to the horse races because it is a social event. You bet on the two best horses so that you don't lose. It was two shillings in the old days or two bob the lowest bet. You back Ukraine well back them for 100% of what they ask for nothing emotional about that. If Russia would think they get away with it they would have gone nuclear right away. After all it saved something like 250000 soldier's lives. They did it because they knew they would get away with it. Something like 140000 Japanese innocent civilian lives was also not nice. Russia usually doesn't make threats they just going for a preemptive strategy. They never made a threat that they would invade.

[JonS]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

we were stabbed in the back

Oh, cool. The old stabbed-in-the-back/we-wuz-robbed mythology. That always works out well in the end.

Edit: which kind of raises an interesting thought experiment. He Who Shall Not Be Named(tm) arose out of abject anonymity to controlling (albeit briefly) most of Europe barely two decades later. I wonder if there's some corporal currently dodging cluster munitions in Luhansk that's destined to be running Russia by the end of the decade.

Edited July 13, 2023 by JonS

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

BLUF: Prigozhin won.

 

So will this result in the war being prosecuted with more energy and effectiveness? Or the first negotiating offers that have some vague connection to reality.

 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, JonS said:

Oh, cool. The old stabbed in the back mythology. That always works out well in the end.

So the commander of the 58th CAA wishes he had joined Prigozhin's march on Moscow, and the assistant commander is spread all over what use to be a very nice Black Sea Hotel in pieces parts. Unless the fix is already in I am guessing Ukraine is about to push a little bit. 

By the fix I mean the surrender or withdrawal of the entire 58th CAA...

[cesmonkey]

A conversation about the war between Russia and Ukraine, taking a very long view of the situation:

[FancyCat]

Huh, looks like France is ready to join UK in watching more Russian generals return home in coffins. I will note, much as prior weapon deliveries, the U.S will need to join in sending ATACMS soon, as NATO unity is essential and very leveraging in discussions of weapons to be delivered. 

Quote

“Deliveries have been going on for some time, so it has been anticipated,” said Laurent Bili, France’s ambassador to the United States, said at a Wednesday event hosted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

An unnamed French military source quoted by Agence France Presse yesterday likewise stated that deliveries were already underway.

https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2023/07/france-already-sending-ukraine-long-range-missiles/388428/

[kevinkin]

39 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

any Wagners may well have accepted the order to fold into the MOD forces.

That's anyone's guess tonight. The big question is if Prig will have a paramilitary operating in Ukraine and, if so, the timing. I don't think he is going away. Perhaps Wagner re-surfaces leaner and meaner. 

[dan/california]