How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

Quote

Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded the “guards” honorific to the 8th Artillery Regiment on June 30, which will not help the regiment dislodge the Ukrainian forces.

LOL ISW, oh man, Kings of drolling.

[Battlefront.com]

1.  Trolling Russia with Storm Shadow:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14nerwz/the_armed_forces_of_ukraine_warn_the_occupiers/

 

2. Trolling Russians with pizza!

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14n5y92/whilst_the_enemy_are_suffering_supply_problems/

 

3.  I bet a bunch of Russians are sorry (or dead) after this attack on a Ukrainian trench.  Point blank LATW outgoing.  Impressive fireballs:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/14n38ta/combat_footage_repelling_an_enemy_assault_in_the/

 

4.  An example of the challenges Russia faces as it dismantles Prig's business empire.  The infamous troll farm, Internet Research Group, is apparently being taken over by "Putin's Banker", Yury Kovalchuk.  As a reminder, the Internet Research Group are the same people that not only worked overtime during the 2013-2015 timeframe, but also directly responsible for interfering in foreign elections, most infamously the 2016 presidential race in the US.  Other Prig media companies are going dark and might not be coming back:

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/billionaire-businessman-yury-kovalchuk-putin-banker-power-wagner-troll-farm-2446273

 

5.  Somehow I missed this drone footage of the Antonovsky bridge (second video) taken last year (prior to the span Russia just destroyed).  It shows the possibilities for some relatively quick repairs for expedient light traffic, I think, but I don't think there's enough to work with for heavy stuff.  Particularly note the section that was the obvious focus of HIMARS attacks.  They targeted one of the piers by the looks of it, yet it still took more than 2 dozen hits before Ukraine felt it didn't have to keep hitting it:

 

 

6.  Magyar showing us two UGVs; one for deploying mines and the other a kamikaze:

Steve

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

6.  Magyar showing us two UGVs; one for deploying mines and the other a kamikaze:

The_Capt did warn us this was coming.

 

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's June 30th report was "top heavy" with various things of interest.  This one, however, is particularly noteworthy:

Quote

The Russian information space is reacting disproportionately to the Russian military’s failure to drive a small Ukrainian force from east (left) bank Kherson Oblast. Russian milbloggers have complained for nearly two weeks that Russian forces have failed to push a very small Ukrainian force – reportedly of up to 70 personnel – from their entrenched positions underneath the eastern span of the Antonivsky Bridge.[6]

...

Russian forces launched an Iskander ballistic missile strike against the east bank span of the Antonivsky Bridge on June 30, though the extent of the damage is currently unclear.[8] 

...

Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated on June 1 that Russian forces are conserving Iskander missiles due to a shortage, underscoring the oddity of Russian forces using one of these missiles against a 70-person light infantry element under the approaches to an already destroyed bridge.[10] 

According to this the hyperventilation by the RU Nat bloggers caused Russia to use one of it's carefully hoarded Iskanders to silence the bloggers' criticism more than the Ukrainians it struck.  Seems to me someone is a little on edge about a potential river crossing

Further down into the report an official Ukrainian estimate of Russian strength in the Bakhmut area:

Quote

A Ukrainian official provided details of the current composition and strength of Russian forces in the Bakhmut area as of June 30. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that the Russian force grouping in the Bakhmut direction has over 330 tanks, 140 artillery systems, and 50,300 personnel, including airborne forces, infantry units, BARS units, and small units of the “Veterany” private military company (PMC).[63] Cherevaty noted that there are no Wagner Group personnel in the Bakhmut area. A Russian milblogger claimed that unspecified elements of the Russian 98th Airborne (VDV) Division are operating in the Bakhmut direction; ISW has previously observed elements of the 98th Airborne Division committed to the Kreminna area and serving in reserve in the Vuhledar area in March 2023.[64]

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The_Capt did warn us this was coming.

 

All obvious uses for UGVs.  Hence why I've been harping on them being a major component of the next war or, if this one drags on much longer, perhaps this one.  Unlike UAVs, UGVs have no existing commercial analog to take advantage of.  Using remote controlled racing cars, for example, isn't really practical because they can't traverse anything other than near perfect ground conditions.  This means users have to wait for purpose built machines to come online and then wait for production to ramp up for them to make a significant contribution.

I'd be surprised if there aren't a few private military spec UGVs operating in Ukraine right now.  Even if a country has some export controls that might be a problem, I have a feeling they could get an exemption provided the vehicle goes in unarmed.  I don't know what Estonia's arms export restrictions are, but if they are lax then hopefully some THeMIS UGVs are in action.  Since NATO countries are already buying considerable numbers of them, it would be good to have them tested in combat now instead of later.

Steve

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

All obvious uses for UGVs.  Hence why I've been harping on them being a major component of the next war or, if this one drags on much longer, perhaps this one.  Unlike UAVs, UGVs have no existing commercial analog to take advantage of.  Using remote controlled racing cars, for example, isn't really practical because they can't traverse anything other than near perfect ground conditions.  This means users have to wait for purpose built machines to come online and then wait for production to ramp up for them to make a significant contribution.

I'd be surprised if there aren't a few private military spec UGVs operating in Ukraine right now.  Even if a country has some export controls that might be a problem, I have a feeling they could get an exemption provided the vehicle goes in unarmed.  I don't know what Estonia's arms export restrictions are, but if they are lax then hopefully some THeMIS UGVs are in action.  Since NATO countries are already buying considerable numbers of them, it would be good to have them tested in combat now instead of later.

Steve

Near as I can tell, If Estonia has it, they have given two thirds of it too Ukraine. I can't think of a reason these would be any different.

Quote

 Milbloggers complained that the Russian military command is unnecessarily impaling Russian forces on Ukrainian remotely laid mines and compelling Russian forces to put heavy military equipment in range of Ukrainian artillery fire.

And Ukraine is using something to do some artful remote mining around Oleshky.

[Sojourner]

33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

UGVs have no existing commercial analog to take advantage of. 

https://www.amazon.com/HJKLMM-Control-Version-Shooting-Infrared/dp/B09GTRCDD9/ref=asc_df_B09GTRCDD9?tag=bngsmtphsnus-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=80058307912323&hvnetw=s&hvqmt=e&hvbmt=be&hvdev=c&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=&hvtargid=pla-4583657845910842&psc=1

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

That's more likely to be a narrative that was spun afterwards in order to look better in the history books.

I remember having read the actual casualty estimate was much lower, something like 30,000. I can't remember the source, so you don't have to believe it. Given that the number in the whole European theater was not even close to a million with the German army actually being a land based army, 1 Mln. seems very exaggerated.

Be that as it may, it's more likely that Truman wanted to demonstrate US power to Stalin. Bombing a country into submission hadn't worked in Germany, why should it have worked in Japan, given that even Japanese civilians had already proven that many would rather commit suicide than surrender. What's more, US bombers had already raided Japanese cities by conventional means with casualty rates similar to Hiroshima and Nagasaki. So what reason should Truman have had to believe that the Japanese would surrender this time?

The Japanese military, btw. indeed reacted little too the nukes. They were more concerned about the Russian invasion of Manchuria.

I don't really know what to make of all of this for the current conflict, though.

There's books on the planning and of the actual operational plans themselves. The German theater was nothing like what the Allies would face in Japan. Limited spots for large amphibious landing,  highly resistant populations and an insanely bad coastal topography gave D0-D14 casualty estimates of 100k+. 

Note the plus... 

[kluge]

36 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

https://www.amazon.com/HJKLMM-Control-Version-Shooting-Infrared/dp/B09GTRCDD9/ref=asc_df_B09GTRCDD9?tag=bngsmtphsnus-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=80058307912323&hvnetw=s&hvqmt=e&hvbmt=be&hvdev=c&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=&hvtargid=pla-4583657845910842&psc=1

Okay that's pretty funny 

For more serious options, RC tanks are a readily available and budget friendly to boot:

https://www.amazon.com/HJKLMM-Control-Version-Shooting-Infrared/dp/B09GTRCDD9/ref=asc_df_B09GTRCDD9?tag=bngsmtphsnus-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=80058307912323&hvnetw=s&hvqmt=e&hvbmt=be&hvdev=c&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=&hvtargid=pla-4583657845910842&psc=1

 

[paxromana]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

gave D0-D14 casualty estimates of 100k+. 

Casualty figures. NOT KIA figures.

And evidently the 100,000+ was the result of someone simply doubling the original 50,000+ and some journo then made 'casualties' into 'dead' (per Downfall by Frank, well worth reading).

Would it have been the nastiest campaign the US would have fought - yes - but there's no need to overestimate it.

[Haiduk]

11 hours ago, strac_sap said:

Spent a lot of time in M113s and always felt them very vulnerable.

You can imagine how is Soviet light armor vulnerable, if UKR soldiers say that M113 and especially YPR-765 have better protection %) 

Edited July 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Similar with the morality of mine debate.  Mines are horrible, evil little suckers which, unfortunately, are extremely effective militarily.  It's one thing to sign a treating saying you won't use an effective weapon when you think you won't need them, it's entirely different thing when it's forced upon you.  As others have said, Ukraine is putting them on their own territory and therefore they are defacto taking responsibility for cleaning them up and suffering decades worth of problems.

I don't think AP mines are extremely effective militarily. They are not completely worthless either, depending on the exact type, but compared to the post-war consequences, they are not worth it. That's the reason so many countries have joined the mine ban treaty.

AP mines were not going to change the way the war was going even from the beginning. And even less so now that Russia is probably not going to be doing much more attacking.

About your last point: Yes, if Ukraine starts to use AP mines,then they de-fact take responsibility for cleaning them up after the war. Whereas if only the Russians use them, then Russia has the responsibility for every single mine in Ukraine. How many mobiks would they need to take out with mines in order for that to balance out?

Edited July 1, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

The first trick is making it and end, and not just another interregnum. 

The end of every war is the start of an interregnum - any strategy that does not recognize this is doomed for failure.  Unless we are talking complete extermination of the Russian people to make the region “safe” but that is a non-starter so no point even exploring it as an option.

[Beleg85]

Boat with Russians was targeted by Ukrainian soldiers- a drone, then infantry finishing them off at close quarters.

https://twitter.com/KrukuOne/status/1675026731629936641

[Haiduk]

The map of southern flank of Kreminna sector, according to recent post of Mashovets. According to him, Russians intensified attacks here, likely having main objective to push off UKR troops to the line Serebrianka - Verkhniokamyans'ke in order to eliminate at last potentialy dangerous Bilohorivka salient, which UKR troops can use as bridgehead of advansing to Rubizhne, Lysychansk and Siverodonetsk. 

In recent weeks Russians have been conducting many probes and attack in this area, espesially from Dibrova - Kuzmyne line and they could push UKR behind main forestal cut-through, passing from west to east. It happened again during rotation, when 100th TD brigade substituted previous troops. But since this local success Russians couldn't advance anymore. Now is next attempt.

On the video 54th TD battalion of 100th TD brigade (of Volyn' oblast) repels Russian attack

 

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The map of southern flank of Kreminna sector, according to recent post of Mashovets. According to him, Russians intensified attacks here, likely having main objective to push off UKR troops to the line Serebrianka - Verkhniokamyans'ke in order to eliminate at last potentialy dangerous Bilohorivka salient, which UKR troops can use as bridgehead of advansing to Rubizhne, Lysychansk and Siverodonetsk. 

In recent weeks Russians have been conducting many probes and attack in this area, espesially from Dibrova - Kuzmyne line and they could push UKR behind main forestal cut-through, passing from west to east. It happened again during rotation, when 100th TD brigade substituted previous troops. But since this local success Russians couldn't advance anymore. Now is next attempt.

On the video 54th TD battalion of 100th TD brigade (of Volyn' oblast) repels Russian attack

 

 

 

 

What causes the big explosions? Thermobarics?

[Carolus]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

The end of every war is the start of an interregnum - any strategy that does not recognize this is doomed for failure.  Unless we are talking complete extermination of the Russian people to make the region “safe” but that is a non-starter so no point even exploring it as an option.

Since there has been some talk about the war's possible end, I feel like adding my own personal speculation.

And I think that the war will not end in a way that is formally recognised by both sides, at least not within the foreseeable future.

What I see most likely happening, regardless of who stays in power in Russia, is that they just never back down. Never negotiate. Never even acknowledge that this could be an option.

Ukraine will push Russia back (how much I will not say) until it exhausts its offensive capacity to the degree the Ukrainian high command feels comfortable with - keeping a capable reserve ready to defend the country. Russia will exhaust its conventional offensive capacity as well, more even, and just continue to dig in where the Ukrainians stop.

Russia will simply not talk to anyone about it. It will not be able to launch a large-scale offensive for several years, and maybe will not even be interested to do so for longer than that.

Instead they will continue to terrorize Ukraine with long-range air attacks, every month, every week, since that is what they can afford and what Ukraine cannot stop at the source. 

Ukraine will receive more Western air defense equipment to keep its citizens relatively safe from Russian air terror.

Eventually the Ukrainian government will one-sidedly end martial law, returning to a semi-normality, with air sirens and Patriots disrupting their sleep. While the LOC remains cold, with some sparks coming up here and there depending on the time of the year, and the air terror remaining, and Russia just never acknowledging that they could ever lose the war or even started one in Ukraine.

There will be no justice for Russian war crimes. But Ukraine will gradually get diplomatically, politically and economically more integrated with the other European nations.

This state will remain for decades. After that, maybe a generation will come to power in either country which did not experience the 2014 to 202X war themselves, and tiny reconciliations will start to happen. A contract here, and agreement there. Nothing big. Like between South Korea and North Korea. And between Russia and the other Western countries as well. 

No real peace deal. No negotiations. Just exhaustion, contraction, stagnation.

Edited July 1, 2023 by Carolus
typos

[akd]

Yes! It’s happening!

 

[billbindc]

12 hours ago, Butschi said:

That's more likely to be a narrative that was spun afterwards in order to look better in the history books.

I remember having read the actual casualty estimate was much lower, something like 30,000. I can't remember the source, so you don't have to believe it. Given that the number in the whole European theater was not even close to a million with the German army actually being a land based army, 1 Mln. seems very exaggerated.

Be that as it may, it's more likely that Truman wanted to demonstrate US power to Stalin. Bombing a country into submission hadn't worked in Germany, why should it have worked in Japan, given that even Japanese civilians had already proven that many would rather commit suicide than surrender. What's more, US bombers had already raided Japanese cities by conventional means with casualty rates similar to Hiroshima and Nagasaki. So what reason should Truman have had to believe that the Japanese would surrender this time?

The Japanese military, btw. indeed reacted little too the nukes. They were more concerned about the Russian invasion of Manchuria.

I don't really know what to make of all of this for the current conflict, though.

Nope. That was what the studies done for Stimson were saying before the fact by people who didn't know the atomic weapons program existed. 

[Haiduk]

Looks like UKR is gradually activating new direction on Zaporizhzhia front: Huliaypole - Polohy 

Russian company of 177th naval infantry regiment (of Caspian flotilia) abandoned positions near Dorozhnianka village after three day of artillery shelling, losing more than half of personnel

Brief translation of message in VK social network:

Our company (mostly mobilized) was deployed on positions near Dorozhnianka on 17th of June. As an armament we had only small arms, one ATGM "Fagot" and BRDM [interesting that BRDM-2 isn't "shtat" vehicle for Russian naval infantry, 177th regiment had BTR-82A]. We were told, just stand here - there are two kilometers of minefields in front of you, so the enemy will attack in other place - everything is under control. In the night on 26th of June the enemy has started to dismantle our positions with veru accurate artillery fire. Three days we couldn't rise up heads. We called for support, but our artilelry kept silence, onсe Su has flew in, but... it struck positions of our neighbours. We almost hadn't communication with command all this time. We received onlt an order to stand. Day before yesterday we knew from our recons the enemy is preparing to assault. Also we knew there are no any minefields in front of us. Communication in this moment was completely down, so we made decision to withdraw to second defense line, because we can't hold here already nothing and with no one - less than half of personnel remained intact. After withdrawing we were disarmed by MP and we are threatened with tribunal. I want you know all - we are not cowards and deserters, we are ready to fight further, but under adequate command!

      The map of this direction

 

 

Edited July 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

43 minutes ago, akd said:

Yes! It’s happening!

 

So, it's how Leo could survive 4 ATGM hits, espesicllay its were old Fagots %)

[cesmonkey]

Not sure this has article has been linked yet, from a few days ago:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/06/28/world/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-obstacles.html

 

[Letter from Prague]

edit: forget it

Edited July 1, 2023 by Letter from Prague

[Seedorf81]

New camo Russian Black Sea fleet, first spotted on 22nd of june 2023.

http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Navy-Deceptive-Camouflage.html

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

I don't think AP mines are extremely effective militarily.

...

AP mines were not going to change the way the war was going even from the beginning. And even less so now that Russia is probably not going to be doing much more attacking.

Sorry, you are wrong.  Very, very, very wrong.  It makes me wonder if you're really watching this counter offensive play out in sufficient detail .

We just saw Ukraine lose more heavy armor in a couple of hours than the US lost taking over Iraq.  This was almost completely due to mines, either directly or indirectly.  Did you watch the horror show video of the Ukrainian squads trapped in an AP minefield?  This made an entire platoon sized unit combat ineffective while trying to extract their soldiers, almost all of whom lost limbs.

Mines are the #1 thing that Ukraine is trying to figure out how to address.  Not artillery, not tanks, not airpower... mines.  If they can't "solve for mines" then this counter offensive is going to be at significant risk of failure (worst case) or major disappointment (best case).  Either because Ukraine takes too little territory for the effort or the effort is considered too high for the rewards.

If it were not for the thick belts of Russian mines, Ukraine would be approaching the Sea of Azov within a few weeks instead of still trying to figure out how to get through minefields without taking horrendous losses.

Steve