How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

5 hours ago, Yet said:

sorry Ukr, but whats the power of a treaty if its so easily dismissed. imo the officers who ordered the APmines should be redirected to mine cleaning operations and clean at least 10x the mines they ordered to be placed or to be send to The Hague. 

RU didnt sign the Treaty, but The Hague will expect them for a lot of other reasons.

I don't understand about what AP mines told HRW. Ukraine utilized most of own AP mines arsenal except mines, which have controled activation (MON, OZM and some other)

In recent days we could see several starnge statements of UN, for example about "human rights violation" of Russian collaborators and informators detaining by SBU.  

We could see assesment of Venice Commision about UKR law about language, where they recommended to restore "prveleged status of Russian language" after "current emergency sitaution" (1000 and 1st method don't call this "war" and "aggression"), because "this temporary situation shouldn't affect Russian language usage". Also they recommended to postpone tranfer of education on Ukrianian language. 

Looks like UKR employees of UN, which barely began unrest after "day of Russian language" after deadly missile strike, were right, when told UN turned to completely ineffective organisation, where leftism is strong and personnel is hired not due to their professionalism and competence, but mostly by quotes of "diversity"

[Haiduk]

Something heavy and probably guided hit the ground near M777 position. Artillerist says the gun still intact (though the crew will have headache to clean the mechanisms of dirt)

 

 

[JonS]

10 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

If a house is on fire with people still in it, are you gonna walk up to the firefighters and tell them that because of global warming (which for me is the most dangerous thing in the world at this moment), they should reduce the amount of water they're using?

No, but you could ask them to use more water instead of the PFAS they're pumping onto the house but which they'd previously said they wouldn't use again.

[Haiduk]

Mashovets wrote, Russians moved to Bakhmut area 11th and 31st air-assault brigades, which for now deployed in close rear to eastern and southern outskirts of the city and 1428th TF MRR, deployed on NE outskirts. Obviously, Russians are going to counter-attack, especially on the south, where their situation already close to critical - reportedly UKR troops already fights on outskirts of Klishchiivka. 

On the north flank Russians during 28th-29th June, using heavy artillery pressure and assaults could push back UKR troops (likely elements of 57th mot.inf.brigade) on Berkhivka - Yahidne section about on 1 km.  

[JonS]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

While I generally agree, the nature of this fight is existential.

The thing is, it's generally agreed that it's NOT existential, at least not for Ukraine. Not anymore. They've won, we're now just waiting for the credits to roll.

It might be existential for Russia, but that's a separate problem and not one that will be solved by Ukraine planting more AP mines.

Edited June 30, 2023 by JonS

[Haiduk]

Looks like next tank-SVBIED (T-54/62) was destroyed by drone after immobilization. I doubt, usual HE ammo could detonate so fast and bright after impact

 

[Haiduk]

 

[Haiduk]

Pair of tanks of 3rd assault brigade shot out Russian positions in tree-line. Dead bodies at the end

 

[strac_sap]

1 hour ago, Jiggathebauce said:

I reject your broad stroke characterization of the "far left" ,as if it has a coherent and unified set of opinions on the war and on states such as Russia and Syria. You haven't listened to very many leftists, because if you do you would know we have incredibly personal and bitter arguments with people who appropriate the aesthetic of revolutionary ideas and ultimately embrace reactionary movements and ideas, and indeed imperialism.

Yes, you are very correct I have over generalized. As you've stated I've seen a number of friendships amongst my friends, and friends of friends, on the left end over this narrative. I don't believe in being too personal on the internets, but I have strong feelings about all peoples rights to live decent lives out of poverty and war.

But, I have heard this refrain repeated so often here in the US that it starts to be held as the whole truth. That the US is solely responsible for this war and for Russia it is a war for existence against US hegemony. There is always a thread of truth in this, but that denies the Ukrainians rights I wish them to have.

Likely my far right narrative is also too truncated, and in fact I feel it is the greatest threat. Especially with the returning veterans from this war in Ukraine and Russia. For some reason veterans groups tend to be far right, which has been debated quite a bit since WWII and after. Nixon himself considered the far right the much greater threat, but then said to curtail the far right he needed to clamp down on the far left. Imagine that logic...(this is from the book: "Sideshow: Kissinger, Nixon, and the Destruction of Cambodia" by William Shawcross)

I do appreciate the feedback.

[Haiduk]

Some words about survivability of modern western armor. 

Other words of soldier of 47th mech.brigade: "If we didn't have it [western armor], our brigade would no longer exist"

47th brigade has most unpleasant and hard work - to gnaw through most dense defense lines, attracting the enemy on itself. Yes, they lost destroyed and damaged already many vehicles, but this brigade moves steady tree-liine for tree-line through totally mined fields and enemy artillery fire. Any other brigade on Soviet BMPs or even on M113 already would be lost own offensive capabilities. 

 

Edited June 30, 2023 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

39 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

 

A pitty Ukraine must limit itself in response when comes to striking Belarussian territory... interesting if core Wagnerites will content themselves with living in tents?

There are many discussions here if Wagnerites can be used to put additional pressure on Lithuanian and Polish borders- till now, we know that most violent actions by "emigrants" were closely coordinated by Russian intelligence, if not directly insipred and planned by them. With advent of this new mercenary brutal force, things may heat up, especially since they have plenty of contacts in Africa. If camp is indeed for them, it is unlikely they will simply sit there doing nothing.

[dan/california]

50 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Mashovets wrote, Russians moved to Bakhmut area 11th and 31st air-assault brigades, which for now deployed in close rear to eastern and southern outskirts of the city and 1428th TF MRR, deployed on NE outskirts. Obviously, Russians are going to counter-attack, especially on the south, where their situation already close to critical - reportedly UKR troops already fights on outskirts of Klishchiivka. 

On the north flank Russians during 28th-29th June, using heavy artillery pressure and assaults could push back UKR troops (likely elements of 57th mot.inf.brigade) on Berkhivka - Yahidne section about on 1 km.  

This is the big news of the day, at least so far. It will make life infinitely harder for the Ukrainian troops around Bakmuht, But it might create the conditions for a real breakthrough elsewhere, getting the Russian reserves committed before Ukraine has to commit the majority of its assault troops seems to have been the point of the entire operation so far.

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

A pitty Ukraine must limit itself in response when comes to striking Belarussian territory... interesting if core Wagnerites will content themselves with living in tents?

There are many discussions here if Wagnerites can be used to put additional pressure on Lithuanian and Polish borders- till now, we know that most violent actions by "emigrants" were closely coordinated by Russian intelligence, if not directly insipred and planned by them. With advent of this new mercenary brutal force, things may heat up, especially since they have plenty of contacts in Africa. If camp is indeed for them, it is unlikely they will simply sit there doing nothing.

I am more interested in how restrained the POLISH government will feel if the Wagnerites start bleeping around on the Polish/Lithuanian border.

[FancyCat]

52 minutes ago, JonS said:

The thing is, it's generally agreed that it's NOT existential, at least not for Ukraine. Not anymore. They've won, we're now just waiting for the credits to roll.

It might be existential for Russia, but that's a separate problem and not one that will be solved by Ukraine planting more AP mines.

Who said they won? Who said this war is existential for Russia? These are future predicting statements, one I would caution people against believing firmly are decided.

A Ukraine where if the front line froze right here is unlikely to get NATO or EU membership, unlikely to get security assurances without a formal peace (which I highly doubt Russia would give if it stopped Ukraine here, mindful of those potential security assurances), it would unlikely to be rebuilt, with a unstable security situation, a dead carcass tied to Europe. Hardly winning.

As for unrest in Russia, the population is cowed, the elites are mindful of the system's benefits, the wobbliness of Putin's regime is there, but definitely less than anticipated.

 

[Beleg85]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I am more interested in how restrained the POLISH government will feel if the Wagnerites start bleeping around on the Polish/Lithuanian border.

We know they are seriously concerned, as evidenced by several statements of chief of Defense Council; there are speculations of additional heavy troops being theoretically deployed if needed. Balts too- especially that NATO sumit is taking place in Vilnius soon. Asipoviche is in central Belarus, but selected detachments may threaten/provoke along NATO borders freely, the way Russians always loved. These activities till now were competence of joined Belarussian KGB and delegated officers from Russian FSB, but perhaps Lukashenko will not like additional Russian troops on the border though, due to highly lucrative and centralized trafficking business his cronies have hands on. Regime earned dozens of millions of dollars by smuggling people into EU this way.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Beleg85

[womble]

28 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

If camp is indeed for [Wagnerites], it is unlikely they will simply sit there doing nothing.

Depends how high the wire is, and how bright the searchlights and how alert the guards... Only 80% joking.

[kevinkin]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

it would unlikely to be rebuilt

I wonder who will invest in Ukraine when their investment is under fire from cruise missile strikes from a spiteful Russia? If the situation stabilizes for perhaps a year and the ongoing shooting war takes a long break, all good will flow to the good guys. Russian may have lost, but Ukraine has some hard work ahead to win things like NATO membership and investments other then financing the bare necessities. No London Eye in Kiev unless Russia knows the wrath of God will descend if they use it for target practice. 

[strac_sap]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Some words about survivability of modern western armor. 

Other words from soldier of 47th mech.brigade: "If we didn't have it [western armor], our brigade would no longer exist"

47th brigade has most unpleasant and hard work - to gnaw through most dense defense lines, attracting the enemy on itself. Yes, they lost destroyed and damaged already many vehicles, but this brigade moves steady tree-liine for tree-line through totally mined fields and enemy artillery fire. Any other brigade on Soviet BMPs or even on M113 already would be lost own offensive capabilities. 

 

Thanks for sharing this, they went through a hell of a fight. I'm glad the vehicles worked so well, and the M2A2 ODS survivability is noted. Spent a lot of time in M113s and always felt them very vulnerable. It was spacious and fairly reliable, but being alive is preferred.

Edited June 30, 2023 by strac_sap

[womble]

I wonder whether the FSB told Putin that Prig was going to Putsch, but Putin couldn't believe he'd go that far, so told them to leave him be.

[kevinkin]

1 minute ago, womble said:

I wonder whether the FSB told Putin that Prig was going to Putsch, but Putin couldn't believe he'd go that far, so told them to leave him be.

That was a scenario discussed last Sunday a little bit. Either way, pretty dysfunctional. 

[womble]

9 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I wonder who will invest in Ukraine when their investment is under fire from cruise missile strikes from a spiteful Russia?

A real worry, if Russia somehow survives as a going concern after having been evicted from UKR. Remember in 1984 that the various powers who Airstrip One had always at war with didn't engage in any intense actual "warfighting", there was just the occasional rocket bomb hitting London and killing a few Proles. In that book, it served The Party's purposes of maintaining the eternal external enemy; an unrepentant RUS wouldn't need to do much more to ruin UKR chances of renaissance.

The fact that RUS continually bombs civilian locations without the supporters of UKR tightening the screws of sanctions and tit-for-tat increasing their military aid packages makes me somewhat fearful that if RUS survives with missile production lines and political will intact, that even evicting them won't be enough. Maybe "The West" will get proper shirty with a RUS that has no military business in UKR any more lobbing HE at Kyiv, and wind up the sanctions til the Russians stop. Or maybe the forces of relations-normalisation will be in full swing as soon as the armies are out of AK range of each other across the pre-'14 borders. I hope for the former but fear the latter will be the case.

[akd]

19 minutes ago, womble said:

I wonder whether the FSB told Putin that Prig was going to Putsch, but Putin couldn't believe he'd go that far, so told them to leave him be.

Wagner base camp in Ukraine was hit with several strikes, preempting Prigozhin's original plan by several days and forcing a more hasty move into Russia. 

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, womble said:

A real worry, if Russia somehow survives as a going concern after having been evicted from UKR. Remember in 1984 that the various powers who Airstrip One had always at war with didn't engage in any intense actual "warfighting", there was just the occasional rocket bomb hitting London and killing a few Proles. In that book, it served The Party's purposes of maintaining the eternal external enemy; an unrepentant RUS wouldn't need to do much more to ruin UKR chances of renaissance.

The fact that RUS continually bombs civilian locations without the supporters of UKR tightening the screws of sanctions and tit-for-tat increasing their military aid packages makes me somewhat fearful that if RUS survives with missile production lines and political will intact, that even evicting them won't be enough. Maybe "The West" will get proper shirty with a RUS that has no military business in UKR any more lobbing HE at Kyiv, and wind up the sanctions til the Russians stop. Or maybe the forces of relations-normalisation will be in full swing as soon as the armies are out of AK range of each other across the pre-'14 borders. I hope for the former but fear the latter will be the case.

Ukraine is already building kamikaze drones that can reach Moscow. It is simply necessary to explain to the Russians that they can start showing up by the several hundred per day, instead of a couple per week.

[Probus]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

 

Can Ukraine afford to not hit any Wagner camps in Belarus?  I mean that's thousands of troops all grouped together.

[kevinkin]

29 minutes ago, womble said:

sanctions

I am not sure how much further traditional sanctions can go. The west has to slowly take apart the behind the scenes networks that supply Russia even with formal sanctions in place. This involves nations we want to be friends with. But those nations have their short term interests and people to provide for. In the end, the war is like a bad tooth. Fillings will not solve the underlying issue and the tooth has to be painfully pulled out on the battlefield. 

Edited June 30, 2023 by kevinkin