How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

40 minutes ago, kluge said:

shoigu looks like he does not want to be in that room 

I don't think anybody wanted to be in that picture. Shoigu does look like he understands he is the one who might be shot tomorrow morning, though. I wonder if he had the sense to get his family out of Russia?

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Dreadful video of a Ukrainian Bradley unit being stuck in a minefield. Lots of lost vehicles and legs.

 

No idea what time this is from.

source: https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1673403477706285064

 

I am starting to have real doubts about the command of the 47th. they seem to be very prominent in videos of things going badly wrong.

[Vanir Ausf B]

54 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

I know that Steve and others on here are convinced that Prigozhin or whoever is pulling his strings "won" and that we will see Shoigu and Gerasimov replaced and Putin reduced to a puppet. Time will tell.

In my personal opinion, it is equally likely that Putin will renege on the deal and give Prigozhin a nice cup of tea or push him out a window.

And why wouldn't he renege? The "Prigozhin won" theory only made sense if Wagner remains more-or-less intact with Prigozhin at it's head. Without Wagner Prigozhin is a nobody and Putin has zero motivation to honor any super secret deals.

[kevinkin]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I don't think anybody wanted to be in that picture.

Wish the guy in the background had a briefcase primed and ready. Explosives have improved since 1944 I would think. 

[womble]

11 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

The "Prigozhin won" theory only made sense if Wagner remains more-or-less intact with Prigozhin at it's head. Without Wagner Prigozhin is a nobody and Putin has zero motivation to honor any super secret deals.

Is that not what happened? Wagner remains "more or less intact", just based in Belarus. It's still operating in Africa (raking in the moolah), its European personnel will be available to Prig. What Prig has lost is his MoD connections, the ones that provide the special assets, the replacement tanks and vehicles.

It seems a bit soon, though, for the regime to be reneging on the deal. Has Prig already skedaddled to Minsk? Maybe he has, so no one is worrying about him rallying a force to go back to Rostov and say "Hang on a goddamn minute, we had a deal." Or maybe enough of Wagner are pissed off at the whole debacle that Prig's leadership is meaningless now.

We still don't know what happened to Utkin. I know he's pretty camera-shy (that's what Prig is for), so perhaps it's not surprising. But finding out will be a clue as to what happened just south of Moscow.

[Harmon Rabb]

Plenty more, where those Bradley IFVs came from.

[Vanir Ausf B]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Dreadful video of a Ukrainian Bradley unit being stuck in a minefield. Lots of lost vehicles and legs.

 

No idea what time this is from.

source: https://twitter.com/SomeGumul/status/1673403477706285064

 

That was horrible.

I don't understand why they couldn't back up the Bradley closer and drop the ramp right next to the soldiers. Hell, dropping the ramp ON the soldiers would have been preferable. It's almost like there's a 3 meter safely regulation they must obey.

[dan/california]

Ukrainians seem to be going for a at least a real distraction at the Antonovsky bridge.

[Harmon Rabb]

Jack Ryan did not provide much context. Looks like the AFU is putting their thermal vision to good use. Interesting, we don't hear that much about the Sumy Oblast these days.

[cesmonkey]

25 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Ukrainians seem to be going for a at least a real distraction at the Antonovsky bridge.

From what I read on the Russian telegram channels, the Ukrainians are holding on but there is a lot of firepower being brought down by both sides. Personally, I wouldn't want to be anywhere near to such an intense fight in such a small area.

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Ukrainians seem to be going for a at least a real distraction at the Antonovsky bridge.

The videos are reminding me that most of the bridge is still intact because it was blown by the Russians who, as we all know, half ass everything.  They should have dropped two spans and the support columns between them.

This means that if Ukraine can take a decent sized footprint on the left bank they could possibly repair the bridge.  Maybe not to take heavy armor and vehicles across, but maybe at least enough for light and medium trucks and, of course, soldiers on foot.

The reason the Russians had to stop using it was due to Ukraine's PGM capability.  Whenever Ukraine wanted to hit it, it could with ease and certainty.  Russia, on the other hand, would have mass a lot of heavy caliber artillery and keep it there for a long time to interdict bridge traffic.  Given the counter battery fight Russia is obviously losing, this is probably impractical.  Air strikes could help, of course, but it wouldn't make up for artillery.

The Russians also left some nicely made ferry points which seem to have survived the flooding.

Hmm.

Steve

[dan/california]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

The videos are reminding me that most of the bridge is still intact because it was blown by the Russians who, as we all know, half *** everything.  They should have dropped two spans and the support columns between them.

This means that if Ukraine can take a decent sized footprint on the left bank they could possibly repair the bridge.  Maybe not to take heavy armor and vehicles across, but maybe at least enough for light and medium trucks and, of course, soldiers on foot.

The reason the Russians had to stop using it was due to Ukraine's PGM capability.  Whenever Ukraine wanted to hit it, it could with ease and certainty.  Russia, on the other hand, would have mass a lot of heavy caliber artillery and keep it there for a long time to interdict bridge traffic.  Given the counter battery fight Russia is obviously losing, this is probably impractical.  Air strikes could help, of course, but it wouldn't make up for artillery.

The Russians also left some nicely made ferry points which seem to have survived the flooding.

Hmm.

Steve

And a lot of the minefields washed out. The dam was far more useful as a threat than it is as a wreck with an empty reservoir. And I expect activity across that reservoir any time now.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, womble said:

Is that not what happened? Wagner remains "more or less intact", just based in Belarus. It's still operating in Africa (raking in the moolah), its European personnel will be available to Prig. What Prig has lost is his MoD connections, the ones that provide the special assets, the replacement tanks and vehicles.

Yes, and the response post from Rybar was a definite sign that the Wagnerites are not going to go quietly.

Let's think about this.  Prig and the roughly 5000 conspirators are marked men if they give up.  Best they can hope for is being cannon fodder for the MoD.  They will be used up like the Partisans were in WW2 where the army is more interested in having them dead than being used effectively.

This means there's a relatively large number of very combat experienced guys armed with everything, including T-90s and artillery, who have every reason to fight to the death.  Prig is likely right in the middle of them ready to go down with the ship as well.

Putin can say all he wants that he'll bring them to "justice", but is it really practical for him to divert the firepower to enforce his will?  I don't think so.

As I've said for a few days now, it's not over yet.  There's still negotiations going on, but Putin does seem to be moronic enough to be dong it in public.  He's making the same mistakes he's made throughout this war... getting on camera and saying he's going to do things that he probably can't deliver on.

1 hour ago, womble said:

It seems a bit soon, though, for the regime to be reneging on the deal. Has Prig already skedaddled to Minsk? Maybe he has, so no one is worrying about him rallying a force to go back to Rostov and say "Hang on a goddamn minute, we had a deal." Or maybe enough of Wagner are pissed off at the whole debacle that Prig's leadership is meaningless now.

See above about their motivation likely being intact.  Prig can also probably convince his men that he made the right decision and they just have to be patient to see why.  Until they disarm, they still have the ability to make demands and have them listened to.

Steve

[kevinkin]

In the NYP today form a from a former Russian Ambassador under Obama:

Wagner Group commander Yegevny Prigozhin is now an “alternative leader’’ in Russia — created by President Vladimir Putin himself — and he likely won’t stay banished for long, according to a top former US official. 

Prigozhin has transformed overnight from a cutthroat mercenary chief into a “nationalist, populist leader,” said Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia under the Obama administration, to “Today” after the rogue commander’s 36-hour revolt against Moscow.

“Putin has now created an alternative leader, and that’s very dangerous for him,” McFaul said, noting Prigozhin’s well-received mutinous statements against Putin posted on Telegram and video footage of him being cheered on by Russian citizens.

“I don’t know how [Putin] is going to control him.” 

Vlad visited him at his first restaurants and they became friends and wealthy together. He can't control Prig. He can kill him or work with him (get what he can out of as possible) then kill him. Unless this is a match made in Hell which can actually survive something like we are witnessing. However, the adventure over in Belarus makes me wonder if divorce papers have been filed yet.   

Edited June 26, 2023 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

The "Prigozhin won" theory only made sense if Wagner remains more-or-less intact with Prigozhin at it's head. Without Wagner Prigozhin is a nobody and Putin has zero motivation to honor any super secret deals.

I am now modifying my "Prigozhin's backers won" theory to "Prigozhin didn't lose, yet".

Things are still super murky and I believe many things are undecided.  It is starting to look more like Prig's partners inside the Kremlin might have betrayed Prig as I've theorized, but out of weakness instead of strength.  Many a coup has fallen apart at the moment of truth because someone hedged their bets when they needed to act decisively.  Or it is possible that Prig's insiders were good enough to get the train rolling, but not enough to keep it going. 

In this scenario Prig calls up his co-plotters to see how things are going and they say "who is this?  I've never heard of you!  Don't call this number again".   Worse, maybe the ones that flipped on him were the ones that offered Wagernite families protection from retaliation?  Or maybe just as likely perhaps, the ones who promised protection turned out weren't able to deliver.  Wouldn't be the first time someone inflated their resume to get in with the cool kids.

So we're now in a standoff of a different sort.  It is more like a base mutiny than a palace coup.  Each side has a reason to negotiate, neither side has a reason to give up too much.  Putin publicly reneging on what Peskov said is not a good sign for the plotters, but Putin may be overplaying his hand.

I still don't understand why this isn't happening with Prig sitting in Rostov.  If it were me, I might have seen the wisdom of abandoning Moscow if I had no friends there, but abandoning a prize already taken seems utterly foolish.  Even if my friends and family were threatened, I would assume their lives would be in even greater danger if I gave up most of my leverage.  There's something extremely important we aren't privy to that would explain this.  And whatever it is has something to do with why Prig isn't already dead.

Steve

[DesertFox]

Oh that's an interesting one

 

 

[kevinkin]

Who is she? Good English with a bit of drama. 

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Oh that's an interesting one

 

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Who is she? Good English with a bit of drama. 

 

As per the twitter account:

JSgt in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ЗСУ / ZSU)Proud member of the Territorial Defense Forces.

and here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Ashton-Cirillo

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, DesertFox said:

As per the twitter account:

JSgt in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (ЗСУ / ZSU)Proud member of the Territorial Defense Forces.

and here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Ashton-Cirillo

Cirillo is a lot like some of the foreigners wound up fighting for the Republican side in the Spanish civil war. She was sort of trying to figure out what to do with her life, and perhaps not doing a great job of it. But I have to give her absolutely 10,000% credit, she took one look at what Putin was trying to do too Ukraine and signed the bleep up. First she was doing some extremely hardcore war reporting from Kharkiv, in fact reading her stuff in the first few months of the war I fully expected to read about her being killed or worse. Then she signed on the dotted with the AFU, and appears to have served honorably since. We should all salute her.

Edited June 27, 2023 by dan/california

[billbindc]

48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I am now modifying my "Prigozhin's backers won" theory to "Prigozhin didn't lose, yet".

Things are still super murky and I believe many things are undecided.  It is starting to look more like Prig's partners inside the Kremlin might have betrayed Prig as I've theorized, but out of weakness instead of strength.  Many a coup has fallen apart at the moment of truth because someone hedged their bets when they needed to act decisively.  Or it is possible that Prig's insiders were good enough to get the train rolling, but not enough to keep it going. 

In this scenario Prig calls up his co-plotters to see how things are going and they say "who is this?  I've never heard of you!  Don't call this number again".   Worse, maybe the ones that flipped on him were the ones that offered Wagernite families protection from retaliation?  Or maybe just as likely perhaps, the ones who promised protection turned out weren't able to deliver.  Wouldn't be the first time someone inflated their resume to get in with the cool kids.

So we're now in a standoff of a different sort.  It is more like a base mutiny than a palace coup.  Each side has a reason to negotiate, neither side has a reason to give up too much.  Putin publicly reneging on what Peskov said is not a good sign for the plotters, but Putin may be overplaying his hand.

I still don't understand why this isn't happening with Prig sitting in Rostov.  If it were me, I might have seen the wisdom of abandoning Moscow if I had no friends there, but abandoning a prize already taken seems utterly foolish.  Even if my friends and family were threatened, I would assume their lives would be in even greater danger if I gave up most of my leverage.  There's something extremely important we aren't privy to that would explain this.  And whatever it is has something to do with why Prig isn't already dead.

Steve

If Putin had clearly won this round, there are things you would be seeing and things you wouldn't: 

1. You would be seeing a lot more regime PR folks cheering on the boss and baying for blood. Simonyan, Solovyev, Peskov etc. Instead, most of them are being careful to throw a scrap to Putin but not much more. We would also be seeing folks like Patruschev and other major players being out front with statements, taking steps, making arrests. 

2. The faces at Putin's round table wouldn't have been downcast, exhausted and monosyllabic. The whole point of that exercise was to project strength and they did the opposite. Those are men who still don't know when the music stops. 

3. Putin would not have given multiple speeches and they wouldn't have been in response to Prigozhin's or indicated as the day went on more concessions.

4. Prigozhin would very definitely not have been giving jaunty speeches about the efforts of Wagner for the Motherland and asking that very loaded question "What is to be done?" (See Lenin and Chernyshevky on that one).

All of this screams continued instability and factional deal making with Putin in the center trying to come to grips with his straitened circumstances. If I had to guess from the looks at that table, Putin is trying to order a purge and finding out that he simply can't order it. His flunkies can agree but they don't think the ranks will follow through. And if that happens, a lot of elements will come off the sidelines. 

 

[DesertFox]

I guess there is still a lot in the dark we don't know about

 

 

[The_Capt]

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

If Putin had clearly won this round, there are things you would be seeing and things you wouldn't: 

1. You would be seeing a lot more regime PR folks cheering on the boss and baying for blood. Simonyan, Solovyev, Peskov etc. Instead, most of them are being careful to throw a scrap to Putin but not much more. We would also be seeing folks like Patruschev and other major players being out front with statements, taking steps, making arrests. 

2. The faces at Putin's round table wouldn't have been downcast, exhausted and monosyllabic. The whole point of that exercise was to project strength and they did the opposite. Those are men who still don't know when the music stops. 

3. Putin would not have given multiple speeches and they wouldn't have been in response to Prigozhin's or indicated as the day went on more concessions.

4. Prigozhin would very definitely not have been giving jaunty speeches about the efforts of Wagner for the Motherland and asking that very loaded question "What is to be done?" (See Lenin and Chernyshevky on that one).

All of this screams continued instability and factional deal making with Putin in the center trying to come to grips with his straitened circumstances. If I had to guess from the looks at that table, Putin is trying to order a purge and finding out that he simply can't order it. His flunkies can agree but they don't think the ranks will follow through. And if that happens, a lot of elements will come off the sidelines. 

 

I really try to avoid getting pulled too deeply into conspiracies.  In my experience humans, while capable of complex and intricate plans within plans involving many players, more often lean into far simpler and lazy calculus - despite what Hollywood and the Internet say.

That said this whole thing right now feels like an exercise in 1) demonstrating that the Emperor is naked and 2) an intermission in a bigger play.  Prig appears to have gotten way further than he or anyone else thought possible.  Putin ran, demonstrated that he is not a god and his noodle is hanging out in the open for the world to see.

So this entire next set of theatrics really feels like everyone is coming to terms with a new reality and figuring out what to do next.  Putin is making the same duck sounds and his cronies look like they are at a wedding where they all know it won’t last the summer.  Everyone is going through the motions because that is what they do but they cannot unsee what has happened.  It has gotten weird and everyone looks like they have one eye on their gun and the other on a back door.  All except Prig, who is still parked down south with still enough firepower to really mess up someone’s day and acting like there are exactly zero f#cks given when by all rights he should already be dead.

[Vet 0369]

21 hours ago, dan/california said:

Do we have any credible information about who was on this plane?

 

Shoigu & Gerasimov?

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I really try to avoid getting pulled too deeply into conspiracies.  In my experience humans, while capable of complex and intricate plans within plans involving many players, more often lean into far simpler and lazy calculus - despite what Hollywood and the Internet say.

That said this whole thing right now feels like an exercise in 1) demonstrating that the Emperor is naked and 2) an intermission in a bigger play.  Prig appears to have gotten way further than he or anyone else thought possible.  Putin ran, demonstrated that he is not a god and his noodle is hanging out in the open for the world to see.

So this entire next set of theatrics really feels like everyone is coming to terms with a new reality and figuring out what to do next.  Putin is making the same duck sounds and his cronies look like they are at a wedding where they all know it won’t last the summer.  Everyone is going through the motions because that is what they do but they cannot unsee what has happened.  It has gotten weird and everyone looks like they have one eye on their gun and the other on a back door.  All except Prig, who is still parked down south with still enough firepower to really mess up someone’s day and acting like there are exactly zero f#cks given when by all rights he should already be dead.

My methodology is also to be suspicious of attempts at complexity. Instead and as above, it's better to see what players are actually saying, what we can see of what they are doing and then make a mosaic of that information that fits all the pieces. It also helps greatly to see what they are *not* doing. The combination in this particular instance seems quite clear. Regime stalwarts are being guarded or completely silent. The guy who launched the coup is not just not dead, he's exuberantly putting out videos that continue to make the coup's case. No waves of arrests yet. Utkin (who led the charge on Moscow) hasn't been arrested as far as we know. Etc. 

The situation that fits what we can confirm is that Putin doesn't have the power to reassert his unchallenged power. Prigozhen does have the power to continue the propaganda that got him into position to challenge Putin. Regime players are keeping their powder dry or laying very low (Gerasimov). As I joked elsewhere, the coup runneth over.

[The_Capt]

Follow up…ok, I think I have got the only solution that makes any sense: Putin and Prig are in love but cannot admit it to each other or themselves.  Only a rom-com scenario makes any sense in what we have seen - hear me out (and yes I am sober as I type this) 

Prig and Putin have known each other for years - him a working class ex-con trying to go straight, Putin a golden haired princess who is so lonely at the top.  They have been sharing stolen glances and smiles for years but neither has the courage…their worlds are too far apart.  Prig is desperate to get Putin to really see him, instead of a boom box outside in the rain he rolls up to Moscow with T90s and MLRS.  It was a romantic gesture of the highest order.  A demonstration of power and masculinity while being vulnerable at the same time.

Putin, like a sexy fox, flees to St Petersburg to hold up with a couple girlfriends…he can’t cope with all this - it is too much too fast.  He is into Prig but the man is both intoxicating and terrifying.  Putin throws out threats but he really does not mean them, inside his heart is pounding - should he?  He mustn’t.  He is so confused right now.  Should he call in airstrikes or run out on the M4 into his man’s arms?

Prig is wailing into the night with an electric guitar (and AD systems), he is in love so hard it hurts.  He bashes out With or Without You by U2…Russia holds it breath, the two star crossed lovers both in love and hate at the same time.  They resent each other for making that love into something that threatens to consume them both.  Finally Lushenko, a girlfriend to both from way back I the day talks them both off the ledge - “you are both love struck fools, stop now before you say something you cannot take back!”

Prig realizes it first.  Putin is a fox to be lured and must feel in control.  Prig has come on too strong.  He dials it back, goes back to the dorm and tells all the guys “he totally scored” but inside he is tortured by the waiting game.  

Putin has fooled himself that he is back in charge but deep inside knows it is too late.  He says strong words but everyone at work knows the truth - FFS would they just do it already.  Their love is self-destructive and wholly doomed but neither can look away - it is a storm that must happen….to be continued.

Edited June 28, 2023 by The_Capt