How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Whelp, I guess in ten years we can have a Hot Thread reunion and all go “remember that weekend in Jun 23?”

You bring the chips, I'll bring the salsa, and everybody else BYOB ("Bring Your Own Beverage" in Yankspeak).

Steve

[pintere]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is a helluva theory.  “A force capable of dislodging him from Rostov”.  That is an urban area of 1.1 million.  If he decided to dig in even with a few thousand he could have Fallujah-ed it likely for weeks.  He had enough troops to insurgency things for months while controlling the freakin RA logistical backfield.  Wagner not only had the means, they had the position…they were dominating the RAs interior lines largely unopposed. 

I do not think it was threat of military force that backed him down, he already crossed that threshold when they started shooting down RUAF assets.  The guy had the southern theatre HQ and likely the critical node in the RA C4ISR backbone - even threatening to blow that all to hell would get people thinking twice.

Whelp, I guess in ten years we can have a Hot Thread reunion and all go “remember that weekend in Jun 23?”

My best bet is that Prig concluded that either:

1) He wouldn’t be able to take control of Moscow with the limited forces he had.

2) Even if he DID, he wouldn’t last long without other Russian players taking his side. 

We have to keep in mind what each party had in mind for an endgame. Prig was probably planning to overthrow the current military (if not political) leadership, and had been planning this for some time. He knew full well that his plans would go nowhere unless others joined him in his rebellion, but that support never materialized for whatever miscalculation. Now he’s in a bind, and even if he consolidates in Rostov his days are numbered.

Meanwhile Putin and Russia want to stop Prig, and Luka basically offers Prig an off ramp that Prig at least gives him a plausible chance of surviving this ordeal with his power somewhat intact. So he decides to stand down.

[kluge]

20 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

As to Wagner in Belarus - so now his base of power is 350km from Moscow instead of 1000…how is this a good thing for Putin?  Not sure how he walks back from that and leads a northern offensive conveniently wearing down the forces he has left so he becomes more vulnerable….but it has been a freakin weird day, so there is that.

The question on my mind is - how is this a good thing for Lukashenko?

Russia spent a good portion of 2022 attempting to drag Belarus directly into the war. Could Wagner- now returned to a former status as an entity with ostensibly no ties with the Russian state- accomplish exactly that?

[kimbosbread]

I think the Russians are very clever. They’re trying to confuse us to death.

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, kluge said:

This largely echoes the ISW assessment from yesterday- which was put out before it was apparent that Wagner would take Rostov without facing serious opposition. Will be interesting to hear what they have to say about all this once today's report finally comes out.

And I still think it's wrong.  Wagner WAS getting a lot of support, but for the most part the Russian population was doing what it always does... FAT LOAD OF NOTHING.  You do not need a population to be compliant to succeed in a political move, you just need them to not actively oppose you.  This is why democracies are in such trouble these days.  And if there's one overriding concept that describes Russians it is "complacent" (lobotomized is another one that isn't incorrect).

This means that the Russian population was doing EXACTLY what Prig needed to be successful.  If they had risen up with him, that would have been an bonus.  I have a lot of negative things to say about Prig, but there's no way he got this far by being an idiot.  He'd have had a heart attack or fatal fall long before this.  He also had a lot of help with this, most likely from people savvier than him about politics.  I do not think it is plausible that any of the coup plotters were expecting the Russian population to do anything other than exactly what it did... a huge heaping of nothing with a side dish of support.

Steve

[sburke]

Just now, kimbosbread said:

I think the Russians are very clever. They’re trying to confuse us to death.

lol it is working, so damned devious!!

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, pintere said:

My best bet is that Prig concluded that either:

1) He wouldn’t be able to take control of Moscow with the limited forces he had.

Two counters to this:

1.  I think he could have.  Easily.  Defending it against VDV and Spetsnaz?  Yes, for a while anyway.  But the coup would likely have been over, one way or another, before those forces could be brought in so not really relevant.

2.  He didn't need Moscow to get major concessions.  He could have sat in Rostov and gotten way, way, way more than what he wound up with. 

Even if he got cold feat about accidentally taking over Russia, he could have withdrawn his forces to Rostov and likely held out indefinitely against security forces.  The only way the Kremlin could have got Prig out of Rostov would be to abandon the entire south of Ukraine (due to lack of supplies) and used the withdrawn forces to oust him.  No matter how low you think the chances of this happening might be, they would likely be higher than Putin would want to risk.  Prig had all the cards.

Which gets me back to something critical behind the scenes changed in favor of Putin and against Prig.  Prig got spooked and he decided to accept a crappier deal, but a certain one, rather than try for a better deal that would end with him hanging by piano wire if he failed.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

lol it is working, so damned devious!!

I know I've got a headache.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Oh, and let's not forget what I've been saying for many pages now.  THIS IS NOT OVER YET.  I still believe that.  If Prig senses the deal he's been given isn't going to happen or has been altered (Darth Vader style), then I think he's going to go back out and cause trouble again.  Even with the MoD and FSB tipped off, they are still armed and well organized.  There's a lot of trouble still left in them.

Steve

[FancyCat]

 

 

[FancyCat]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The above is, I think, probably part of what happened.

There's no chance AT ALL that this was all Prig.  We've discussed this at length since Prig became a regular facet of this war, especially after he started challenging the status quo.  Alone he just isn't connected enough to be able to pull of a successful coup.  I also doubt that he managed to get FSB and MOD personnel to join him.  My thinking is it was the other way around.

Let's reexamine the underlying reason for this coup, which is the war is lost unless there's some dramatic change in military strategy.  Putin isn't willing to listen to alternatives, the MoD doesn't seem capable of changing on its own.  Those who understand this reality eventually get to the point of trying to do something about it.  Pretty much any autocratic government fighting a losing war has this dynamic.

So over many, many months there's been a coalition formed within the MoD, FSB, elites, and Wagner to (initially) gripe about things.  Griping turns to thinking of alternatives, thinking turns to planning, and in this case planning into action.  But Prig has always been a means of achieving change, not being the one to be in charge of that change.

The conspirators decide the time is right to act.  Conspirators within the MoD make resources available to Prig, such as AD and tank transporters.  The FSB keeps Putin in the dark and readies to keep Prig's channels of communications open during the coup when they could, and should, shut them down.  The elites start making concrete political plans to take political control (mind you, it COULD be with Putin as a figurehead).  Prig, of course, starts mouthing off in calculated ways and keeping his forces intact and concentrated in the Donbas.  And all the while everybody keeps this sort of information away from those that might tell Putin.

Prig goes about his takeover of Rostov and march on Moscow with the active assistance of the conspirators.  They succeed wildly.  Maybe too much or too fast.  Something behind the scenes goes wrong or a key member gets a better offer.  Prig realizes that he's either going to topple Putin and be stuck with the results or he's going to be hung out to dry.  Prig cuts a deal for himself and, to some extent, Wagner.  The coup fails.

Maybe this whole thing fell apart precisely because Wagner are mercenaries and can not be relied upon.  If these were MoD of FSB forces with this sort of advantage, they probably would have pressed on thinking they could rule if they succeeded.

 

Lots of speculation here, but basically I think "something behind the scenes defeated the Coup" is more likely than "Putin caved and we just don't know it yet".

Steve

I don’t think it serves the coup plotters, whatever faction or group, to overthrow Putin and break the legitimacy of government and state. They fear the chaos of the 90s. Better to go to Putin and tell him he no longer controls things, and now changes will be done by this faction with veiled legitimacy, and a gun in the form of Wagner or otherwise, so it would be best to obey. 

putin does hold legitimacy domestically and internationally, whatever blow he takes, is still better than the void caused by militarily invading Moscow and arresting him and his inner circle. (Assuming it isn’t some of them in on the plot, assuming this exists)

[FancyCat]

I mean at this point, Putin’s lack of control has been unmasked. Example, how did the intelligence services miss this? You don’t need to invade Moscow, capture Putin, or any further than what Wagner got actually, to see that Putin’s presence is severely diminished, his orders aren’t being obeyed, that clearly Prig had help and allies, can we say the coup didn’t succeed? It depends on the next days and so, but dynamic has changed. But we gotta see what happens to Shoigu and Gerasimov. Where the hell are they? 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Maybe, but what faction?  This may be the missing piece.  One thing is damn sure, Russia is not more stable than it was last Wed, in fact likely quite the opposite.  Putin has been shown to have feet of clay to the world…and he ran.  This might just be the opening moves in a larger game, but whoever is behind this just had their bishop do a thunder run that nearly tossed the entire board.

As to Wagner in Belarus - so now his base of power is 350km from Moscow instead of 1000…how is this a good thing for Putin?  Also didn’t Prig publicly call this entire war BS and outed the actual numbers of dead?  Not sure how he walks back from that and leads a northern offensive conveniently wearing down the forces he has left so he becomes more vulnerable….but it has been a freakin weird day, so there is that.

What we know is that whoever that faction is must include large and powerful sections of the FSB. Otherwise, how does this catch the Kremlin by surprise? Beyond that I don't know. If I were Putin, I'd be looking closely at whoever suggested Lukashenko as the interlocutor. 

Remember, Wagner is going to be a remnant in Belarus and won't any longer be tied into the Russian military logistical train. They will be Lukashenko's praetorians. Not a lot of glory but they won't be going up against the Ukrainian military any time soon either. And certainly, Moscow will be now guarded by some hoped to be reliable units currently being withdrawn from reserves in Ukraine. Shades of 1917? You don't say...

[pintere]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Two counters to this:

1.  I think he could have.  Easily.  Defending it against VDV and Spetsnaz?  Yes, for a while anyway.  But the coup would likely have been over, one way or another, before those forces could be brought in so not really relevant.

2.  He didn't need Moscow to get major concessions.  He could have sat in Rostov and gotten way, way, way more than what he wound up with. 

Even if he got cold feat about accidentally taking over Russia, he could have withdrawn his forces to Rostov and likely held out indefinitely against security forces.  The only way the Kremlin could have got Prig out of Rostov would be to abandon the entire south of Ukraine (due to lack of supplies) and used the withdrawn forces to oust him.  No matter how low you think the chances of this happening might be, they would likely be higher than Putin would want to risk.  Prig had all the cards.

Which gets me back to something critical behind the scenes changed in favor of Putin and against Prig.  Prig got spooked and he decided to accept a crappier deal, but a certain one, rather than try for a better deal that would end with him hanging by piano wire if he failed.

Steve

What I wonder about is what Prig‘s endgame was this whole time. I can’t imagine he could’ve negotiated for any sort of concessions as soon as he began taking over sovereign Russian territory with his troops. Say he bottled up in Rostov. What then? He might be a thorn in Russia‘s side for a while, but if no one came to his aid then he’d just be waiting to get bombed out ala Grozny style.

I’m pretty sure he and his co-conspirators were all in, but not enough important people defected to him for the plan to work, and so he chose the off ramp. Could he have taken Moscow if he chose to reject Luka‘s offer? Maybe, but without defections from other local forces I wouldn’t be so sure.

The force sent to Moscow apparently had ~5000 men, and though there wasn’t exactly a lot in the way aside from special forces, Rosgvardia and police, I doubt that even the skilled Wagner detachment could’ve captured the city in the face of substantial resistance. If Kyiv 2022 taught us anything it’s that even a somewhat ragtag defense can prevail if it’s defending a major urban centre and if all it needs to do is delay for a crucial period of hours.

[FancyCat]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Remember, Wagner is going to be a remnant in Belarus and won't any longer be tied into the Russian military logistical train. They will be Lukashenko's praetorians. Not a lot of glory but they won't be going up against the Ukrainian military any time soon either. And certainly, Moscow will be now guarded by some hoped to be reliable units currently being withdrawn from reserves in Ukraine. Shades of 1917? You don't say...

Are we sure that Wagner is going into retirement into Belarus? Obviously their operations worldwide continue, and if I was Prig, I would want to see Wagner keep acting as an active military unit, cementing his legitimacy and retaining influence. Would also force MoD to keep supplying him. And while we certainly have seen little incursions by Russia into North Ukraine, I feel like Wagner might feel differently about fighting, and again, it gives him the ability to retain the spotlight, steal MoD shine, keep himself from getting taken out in Belarus.

[dan/california]

Winner 

 

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Are we sure that Wagner is going into retirement into Belarus? Obviously their operations worldwide continue, and if I was Prig, I would want to see Wagner keep acting as an active military unit, cementing his legitimacy and retaining influence. Would also force MoD to keep supplying him. And while we certainly have seen little incursions by Russia into North Ukraine, I feel like Wagner might feel differently about fighting, and again, it gives him the ability to retain the spotlight, steal MoD shine, keep himself from getting taken out in Belarus.

The Wagner who participated directly are going to Belarus per the agreement. The rest are supposed to either sign up for the MoD or retire. We'll see if that's what happens.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

If Prig senses the deal he's been given isn't going to happen or has been altered (Darth Vader style), then I think he's going to go back out and cause trouble again. 

[danfrodo]

Maybe some of this is simple.  Assume Prig wanted safety and wealth and enough power to keep safe & wealthy.  He gets deal where his men are pardoned, he's going to be in Belarus, relatively safe (he thinks).  But I bet the jewel in the center of the deal was big pile of money sent to a bank account in Switzerland.  And when Prig's accountant assured him the money was there, then the deal was final.  I'm just making this up but I bet buying off Prig/Wagnerites was big part of it.  And he keeps enough militarized mob enforcers & equipment to keep himself safe & rich & in the merc business.

Avoided the Sack of Moscow, 2023, chapter in future history books.  But dang I really want Prig dead for not following through and possibly accidentally ending this war.

The repercussions of this will hopefully turn an already brittle RU army in UKR even more brittle. 

[kevinkin]

Do we have any idea want percent of Wagner troops went to Rostov and on to Moscow? It couldn't have been everyone. 

[FancyCat]

16 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The Wagner who participated directly are going to Belarus per the agreement. The rest are supposed to either sign up for the MoD or retire. We'll see if that's what happens.

Huh. That sounds way more like MoD winning? Prig and Wagner who are disloyal, killed Russian troops, exiled to Belarus, depending on terms, sounds like limited potential for recruitment and obviously, time given to Putin and co to reinforcing Moscow. Then MoD…well I dunno, how much of the MoD gave orders to fight back? We have Putin saying to kill them, I’ve assumed orders were given that the lower ranking disobeyed, but do we know if the MoD ordered resistance? What if the orders never filtered down? 

a twitter commentor made a decent point, Prig had to stop at the Oka river, do we know in actuality if the bridges were blown? Could he have made the crossing with the bridges blown? Imagine if he got held up, with only 5000? personnel outside Moscow with increasing forces potentially amassing. Sure, if he turned back from Moscow and went to voronezh but not a great look. Sure, fighting into Rostov, Voronezh, he could have held out a long time, but if we wonder about his goals, and understand it’s merely to get some balance of freedom (MoD wanted his arrest), then makes sense he takes this and runs. Walk into Moscow, he’s dead, hold out longer, the chances of an agreement lessen. Stay and fight in Ukraine and join the impending defeat? Huh. Or maybe im missing something? 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/24/putin-prigozhin-russia-wagner-group-coup/

The message in all these calls, I’m told, was “cool it.” Don’t make the crisis in Russia more dangerous by seeking to intervene or profit from the disarray. This message was focused especially on Ukraine; U.S. officials stressed their desire that Kyiv not seem to take advantage of the strife in Russia in ways that might spiral into an even more dangerous moment. The Ukrainians, from what we can see, followed that advice.

 

Someone in Washington is still afraid of winning. 

[Sojourner]

What size force is Wagner deploying to Belarus? What would have been the reaction in Kiev and the west if Wagner, having rested and refit after Bakhmut, suddenly redeployed to Belarus? I imagine it would have been along the lines of  "no effin way!"

 

So, what if this so called insurrection is a bit of theater to accomplish exactly that, and open a new front in the north, without unduly raising eyebrows?  I think a tip-off might be Prigozhin's frequent use of the phrase, "all according to plan." Putin has been trying to get Lukashenko to join the party, and Luka's  been reluctant probably due to fear of retaliation. But now Luka has nukes, so that's no longer an excuse. Putin looking weak for backing down to Prig will be quickly forgotten if he can roll into Kiev in a matter of days.

 

I don't know much about the hydrography in the region, but could blowing the Nova Kakhovka dam have the effect of draining the Pripet Marshes, or at least making them less impassable?

 

Or maybe I should heed sburke - "but then this is Russia.  I have to stop trying to make this rational" - and go back to lurking.

[cesmonkey]

Have either Shoigu  or Gerasimov been heard from since the deal with Prigozhin  was announced?

What we see or hear from either of them will say a lot about what has been agreed to.

[cesmonkey]