How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

1. Giving indications that he is in active communication with people in commands tasked with opposing him.

2. 100k dead Russians.

[dan/california]

We need a a current photo from the NASA fire tracking satellite. I am very curious whose artillery is doing what while Prighozin, at a minimum dominates the Russian information space, and command bandwidth.

[dan/california]

 

[akd]

Now he is claiming they shot down a helicopter which opened fire on Wagner column.  Still no visual confirmation of any of this...

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

If confirmed, that is more than a few hold outs. Looks like a battalion at least.

[Beleg85]

Remember folks Rostov is 1,1 mln aglomeration...this pocket of soldiers/ policemen/siloviki that gathered there today, even before the news of the mutiny, would be likely to stop Prig on itself till reinforcements arrive, unless he has several brigades strong forces with him just now. And there are civilians too, they may not want to wait idle as events develop.

Overal, I don't see how he can have hopes on anything serious frankly, even if possessing many more than several hundreds of sworn fighters. Ofc. unless there are some real cranks in apparatus, but it doesn't seem to be the case.

16 minutes ago, akd said:

Now he is claiming they shot down a helicopter which opened fire on Wagner column.  Still no visual confirmation of any of this...

Could be signal for airforce to back off, he at least probably have some Manpads...another serious fail on Russian intelligence side, to leave wagnerites with weapons like that.

Oh.

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[Kraft]

Supposedly this is footage of fighting between Wagner and Russian units in Rostov

https://t.me/ASupersharij/20768

Edited June 24, 2023 by Kraft

[The_Capt]

Mainstream picking it up now:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/moscow-accuses-wagner-head-of-mutiny-he-says-his-forces-enter-russia-1.6453680

[dan/california]

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/statu

43 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

This is where I remind you that Timothy Snyder predicted something like this last October.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war

He is the greatest scholar of Eastern European history living west of the Oder. Edit: after all

 

 

11 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Remember folks Rostov is 1,1 mln aglomeration...this pocket os soldiers/ policemen/siloviki that gathered today, even before the news of the mutiny, would be likely to stop Prig on itself till reinforcements arrive, unless he has several brigades strong forces with him just now. And there are civilians too, they may not wait idle as events develop.

Overal, I don't see how he can have hopes on anything serious frankly, even if possessing many more than several hundreds of sworn fighters. Ofc. unless there are some real cranks in apparatus, but it doesn't seem to be the case.

Could be signal for airforce to back off, he at least probably have some Manpads...another serious fail on Russian intelligence side, to leave wagnerites with weapons like that.

I four/fifths agree with you, and so does the Ghirkin post below that I can't get to display correctly.

The other side of the coin though is that Putin might be about to learn the down side teaching people to keep their heads down and do nothing with a stick. People will keep their heads down and do nothing.  If Prighozin is ruthless enough to go straight for the weakest/most valuable spots in the MOD logistics system, he could have it all rigged with C4 before the MOD can do much about it. The only winner from that stand off would be Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1672403905886519296

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by dan/california

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Remember folks Rostov is 1,1 mln aglomeration...this pocket os soldiers/ policemen/siloviki that gathered today, even before the news of the mutiny, would be likely to stop Prig on itself till reinforcements arrive, unless he has several brigades strong forces with him just now. And there are civilians too, they may not wait idle as events develop.

Overal, I don't see how he can have hopes on anything serious frankly, even if possessing many more than several hundreds of sworn fighters. Ofc. unless there are some real cranks in apparatus, but it doesn't seem to be the case.

Could be signal for airforce to back off, he at least probably have some Manpads...another serious fail on Russian intelligence side, to leave wagnerites with weapons like that.

Kinda weird that if he did not have the force strength that he would be “invading Russia”.  I mean if he is on a suicide run with a few loyal troops why charge into Russia?  They guy has access to transport aircraft, if he was light on forces why not go to Syria or Sudan and establish a fiefdom and play Wild Geese.  

[dan/california]

I have no clue who this guy is, but he seems to be reading about forty Russian telegram channels live on air. He is saying some units are refusing orders to confront Wagner. Zero idea of credibility. 

[Beleg85]

24 minutes ago, dan/california said:

He is the greatest scholar of Eastern European history living west of the Oder. Edit: after all

Not really, he specializes in Central Europe (do many mistakes, too) and is very often misguided on Eastern E. topics. But is very afluent, and probably closest as US mainstream public nowadays can get to serious intelectual taking voice, so in our short-attention span seeking conditions, we should be thankfull at least for that. Note it wasn't like that always, western public in general became infantilized heavily due to influence of new media/money-grabbing menagement pracitices in media in last 30 years. Before that there were dozens Snyders making lectures/debates even in prime time.

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Kinda weird that if he did not have the force strength that he would be “invading Russia”.  I mean if he is on a suicide run with a few loyal troops why charge into Russia?  They guy has access to transport aircraft, if he was light on forces why not go to Syria or Sudan and establish a fiefdom and play Wild Geese.  

Easy to shoot down. Probably also disappearing in Africa as warlord of old is not so easy nowadays- note that despite Wagner investing there, his main base of operation (and support) is St. Petersburg and Moscow; perhaps whole fuss came from a fact that Prigozhin get for example news that he is supposed to travel to Africa and then being silently removed by Kremlin in some accident or "jihadi" attack. In Africa he is maybe even more on the mercy of Kremlin than at home- at least he could hope on genuine support of some part of population domestically.

He could simply get spooked or being promised something by some shadowy faction. Initially I read his entire detour as show of dissatisfaction in hopes he still has Putin's krisha, a kind of "Italian strike" if you like, but in Russian flavour- not even mutiny nor coup. But if news about clashes are true, it is way too late for him to save skin.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[kevinkin]

Stay indoors, Russian regional governor tells residents
In the last few moments the governor of Russia's Rostov region - which borders Ukraine to the east - has urged citizens to stay indoors.

Writing on Telegram Vasily Golubev said: "The current situation requires the maximum concentration of all forces to maintain order.

"Law enforcement agencies are doing everything necessary to ensure the safety of residents of the area.

"I ask everyone to stay calm and do not leave the house without the need."

Wagner group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin earlier claimed without providing evidence that his forces had crossed from Ukraine, where they had been fighting, into Russia.

Russian military vehicles have been deployed in the regional city of Rostov-on-Don, about 100km to the east of the border with Ukraine.

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Easy to shoot down. Probably also disappearing in Africa as warlord of old is not so easy nowadays- note that despite Wagner investing there, his main base of operation (and support) is St. Petersburg and Moscow; perhaps whole fuss came from a fact that Prigozhin get for example news that he is supposed to travel to Africa and then being silently removed by Kremlin in some accident or "jihadi" attack. In Africa he is maybe even more on the mercy of Kremlin than at home- at least he could hope on genuine support of some part of population domestically.

He could simply get spooked or promised something by some shadowy faction.

What happened to Wagner having “its own airforce?”  Well if he isn’t going to run, I am not sure how attacking Moscow with a few hundred troops is a better idea.  We will have to see just how big this is or will become.  From what we do know Wagner is not a few hundred members of a Freedom Legion.  Even a few thousand with axes to grind and modern military equipment could make life very difficult in the RA backfield.  If he has 25k as is being reported and can keep them onside, well that is likely large enough to cause a real stink and sustain it.  

The real question here is “what will the RA do?”

Repercussions of this, if it does not get tied off quickly, are not small.  The integrity of the Russian military is a start.  Then we get factions who are already pissed off and angry who may join in - Russia is a really big country to try and secure at the best of times.  Near abroad deciding to vote with their feet.  China has good excuses to simply cut Putin loose if this gets noisy enough.  I am pretty sure there are more…economic springs to mind.

[MikeyD]

I'm reminded of how every crackpot in the US who shoots up a church service or shopping mall or music concert will claim he did it in order to 'jumpstart the revolution', a revolution that never comes. This particular revolution will only work if someone in Putin's inner circle pulls out a pistol on him. or if Putin so fears that happening that he hops a cargo plane to the UAE. What is the chance of that happening? Better now than it was 48 hours ago.

[Beleg85]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What happened to Wagner having “its own airforce?”

Frankly I didn't heardabout it for some time already, just as artillery and heavy stuff that were "borrowed" to them exclusively to storm Bakhmut. Perhaps our Ukrainian and Russian members will know more tomorrow.

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The real question here is “what will the RA do?”

Repercussions of this, if it does not get tied off quickly, are not small.  The integrity of the Russian military is a start.  Then we get factions who are already pissed off and angry who may join in - Russia is a really big country to try and secure at the best of times.  Near abroad deciding to vote with their feet.  China has good excuses to simply cut Putin loose if this gets noisy enough.  I am pretty sure there are more…economic springs to mind.

Agree, Putin must supress it as fast as possible, several days of stalemate may be enough to drain his Tsarist mojo in eyes of population. Harm for Russia (fortunatelly) is already done. No way public/state apparatus will get over this like it did over sinking of flagship or successive Ukrainian offensives. Too many hidden motives, unclear beliefs and extreme suspicion from various actors to not have it serious effect on outcome of this war. Russians collectivelly were always borderline suspicious over motives of their own state (and for a reason), now it will blow out.

Reactions of the elite will be very interesting, too. So many of them have connections to Wagnerites in this or other way. Even chief propagandists have clips/pictures chatting with Prig. I think he will also be probably first person from direct Putin's houshold crew in many years to actually betray (unless they will try to reframe it as "petition for Tsar from poor neglected soldiers" instead of blatant betrayal- there are similar pleas from the Russian past that initially succeeded). Serious repercussion for entire political system, without doubt, even if tomorrow we will read it was all cheap theatre.

 

We should take Kaliningrad. Now or never.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[danfrodo]

Well, it'll probably soon be a great time for the free-russia forces to strike again.  RA, FSB, et al, gonna be rather busy for a while

[Harmon Rabb]

I've seen a number of Twitter accounts that I follow report that this is new footage from Rostov.

[Kraft]

Troops moving, 2 tanks. Building of the MoD in Rostov has been taken over it seems.

https://imgur.com/a/hl1AhSf

[Beleg85]

2 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I've seen a number of Twitter accounts that I follow report that this is new footage from Rostov

Yes, but we don't know which soldiers are Russian...and which Russians, if you know what I mean. It is already dawn there by now; note probably Wagner get inside the city or at least its outskirts. 

Ok, going several hours sleep. Probably this topic will have 10 additional pages in the late morning. Keep it Real, Prig.;)

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I've seen a number of Twitter accounts that I follow report that this is new footage from Rostov.

That's the logistical and command hub of the entire southern front in Ukraine for the Russian MoD. An enormous wrench thrown in to the machinery already.

[Beleg85]

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

That's the logistical and command hub of the entire southern front in Ukraine for the Russian MoD. An enormous wrench thrown in to the machinery already.

If those troops are indeed Wagner or mutineers, it looks so for now.

Hmm...how many strokes Shoigu survived till now? Something like 2?

 

I hope the irony of Little Green Men overtaking Russia is not lost to you, gentlemen...quite incredbile, need to admitt.

Edited June 24, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

That's the logistical and command hub of the entire southern front in Ukraine for the Russian MoD. An enormous wrench thrown in to the machinery already.

Prig knows where to hit, give him that.  Likely been thinking about this move for awhile.  Ironic if he can quickly take a major city in a lightening strike…you know….after Feb 22…

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

I've seen a number of Twitter accounts that I follow report that this is new footage from Rostov.

The civilians just standing there watching are being a little slow on the uptake. There is a ~50% chance a shooting war breaks out at that exact spot at any moment. Time go folks, pretty much anywhere else.

Edited June 24, 2023 by dan/california

[MikeyD]

Is there any way to visually distinguish Wagner from regular army? If they come to blows I can see as many friendly fire casualties as opponents. Any unit two block ways from the next unit is liable to be mistaken for the enemy and fired upon.