How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

 

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, that was an interesting read for this morning!

My take on the downing of the Russian aircraft from the discussion here is that they were, indeed, part of a single strike group and that the West has explicitly carved out a territorial exception for Ukraine's use of Western weaponry.  Specifically, if it's in the air and is clearly on its way to send death to Ukrainian civilians, have at it.  Messaging from Western leaders over the past few weeks seems to have been hinting at this.  Brits in particular made some comments in the last week that perked my ears up (and I noted it somewhere here).

Now, as to what took out the aircraft... Ukraine's ground based air defenses do not appear to have been used as there is no evidence of launches or interceptions from Russian AD.  MANPADs smuggled into Russia... well... maybe a helicopter or two, but 4 aircraft including 2 fast movers?  No, I doubt that very much.  So we're left with Ukraine's airforce taking them out from the air.  And that means something like AIM-120 is the top suspect.

I like the theory that one of the reasons for the seemingly slow delivery of the last batch of Soviet era fighters is that they were being modified to use AIM-120.  There is no engineering reason why this wouldn't work, it just needed time and money.  I expect in the coming days or weeks we'll see confirmation of this, but until then I'm very content with this explanation.

Now for the fun part... implications!

Remember all the people that were fretting about Russian air power potentially ruining an otherwise great Ukrainian advance deep into occupied territory?  It was a weak argument to start with, now I think the nails are being driven into the coffin.  Russia now has a serious threat to counter and it has so far shown itself unable to rise to such challenges in the past. 

Storm Shadow will probably continue to be used against supply nodes, but I do expect that when Ukraine is ready for it the based in Crimea are going to get some unpleasant special deliveries.  Likewise, I think the Black Sea Fleet is going to be hit in some way, probably Storm Shadow and more suicide drone boats.  Maybe some other surprise such as fast, light ships armed with Neptune and Harpoon that can operate safely due to the lack of air cover out of Crimea.

Russia is going to have to decide how many aircraft it can afford to risk and what they are willing to risk them for.  Terrorizing civilians, as they have been doing, is likely off the menu for now.  They are also going to have to decide if they need to relocate the Crimean aircraft to bases further into Russia.  Doing so means the Black Sea is extremely vulnerable.  That opens up all kinds of possibilities.  Including amphibious assaults along the southern coastline of occupied Kherson!

Steve

I wrote something a few days ago about upside surprises in terms of what Ukraine has been given. AIM-120 is a bigger upside than I dared to hope for. This and Storm Shadow in the same week are a pretty obvious message to Putin that this is his last chance to pull out of Ukraine with a functioning military. I doubt he will have the sense to take it, but there is always some chance that someone with a pistol will help him decide.

Edited May 13, 2023 by dan/california

[Lethaface]

16 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

The offensive of the Third Assault Brigade or how the 72nd Brigade of the Russian Federation "fled" from Bakhmut TEASER

 

looks to be a darn goldmine of footage to come

Interesting video. I'd seen some of it but now it was combined with drone footage. And happy to see those YPRs doing more work.

[Haiduk]

Interesting information about current situation with APFSDS in UKR and RU armies from the tanker of 3rd assault brigade (on the photo 3BM44 Mango APFSDS projectile with BM42 rod):

- What a fu...g meeting! Very rare guest in our corner of the world!

- Mango? It should be main AP-ammo of orcs

- Who said that? They have mainly, like and we are BM22 (Zakolka) and BM26 (Nadezhda)

- I've read before a war they sold by Indian contract some Mango-M. Patriots then cried "Where our Svinets?"

- All what is issued for public and that, what in real are different things. Yes, no doubt, recently thet had more BM42 (Mango) then we had in percentage, but now they mostly use BM15 and BM22. 

 

So, Russian stocks of relatively modern APFSDS also degraded. We can't see mass usage of newest Svinets ammo, though we got as trophies several 3BM60 Svinets-2 with tungsten rod (3BM59 with DU rod wasn't spotted in Ukraine). According to Defense Express information, destiny of Svinets is unclear, because in 2020 MoD ordered 2000 3BM44M "Lekalo" (or other name "Mango-M"). So in current stage of war (likely from the end of summer 2022)  Russian tankers use old BM12/22/26 as main APFSDS

[dan/california]

You know there is only so much good news a person can ingest on a weekend morning without cracking a beverage early.

[DesertFox]

Found this map-site helpful to keep track of the Bakhmut situation. Some of you might know that site already:

The War in Ukraine : Scribble Maps

And a tweet about the actual situation:

 

 

[TheVulture]

Another missile strike in Luhanskaccording to https://t.me/novosti_donbass24/47074

Quote

The strike fell on the military registration and enlistment office, where the Russian troops were located.

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, that was an interesting read for this morning!

My take on the downing of the Russian aircraft from the discussion here is that they were, indeed, part of a single strike group and that the West has explicitly carved out a territorial exception for Ukraine's use of Western weaponry.  Specifically, if it's in the air and is clearly on its way to send death to Ukrainian civilians, have at it.  Messaging from Western leaders over the past few weeks seems to have been hinting at this.  Brits in particular made some comments in the last week that perked my ears up (and I noted it somewhere here).

Now, as to what took out the aircraft... Ukraine's ground based air defenses do not appear to have been used as there is no evidence of launches or interceptions from Russian AD.  MANPADs smuggled into Russia... well... maybe a helicopter or two, but 4 aircraft including 2 fast movers?  No, I doubt that very much.  So we're left with Ukraine's airforce taking them out from the air.  And that means something like AIM-120 is the top suspect.

I like the theory that one of the reasons for the seemingly slow delivery of the last batch of Soviet era fighters is that they were being modified to use AIM-120.  There is no engineering reason why this wouldn't work, it just needed time and money.  I expect in the coming days or weeks we'll see confirmation of this, but until then I'm very content with this explanation.

Now for the fun part... implications!

Remember all the people that were fretting about Russian air power potentially ruining an otherwise great Ukrainian advance deep into occupied territory?  It was a weak argument to start with, now I think the nails are being driven into the coffin.  Russia now has a serious threat to counter and it has so far shown itself unable to rise to such challenges in the past. 

Storm Shadow will probably continue to be used against supply nodes, but I do expect that when Ukraine is ready for it the based in Crimea are going to get some unpleasant special deliveries.  Likewise, I think the Black Sea Fleet is going to be hit in some way, probably Storm Shadow and more suicide drone boats.  Maybe some other surprise such as fast, light ships armed with Neptune and Harpoon that can operate safely due to the lack of air cover out of Crimea.

Russia is going to have to decide how many aircraft it can afford to risk and what they are willing to risk them for.  Terrorizing civilians, as they have been doing, is likely off the menu for now.  They are also going to have to decide if they need to relocate the Crimean aircraft to bases further into Russia.  Doing so means the Black Sea is extremely vulnerable.  That opens up all kinds of possibilities.  Including amphibious assaults along the southern coastline of occupied Kherson!

Steve

This has been a trend we have been seeing for some time - the growing asymmetry of the Ukrainian battle space.  This is just another example.  So this attack clearly demonstrates that Ukraine still has effective capability to deny airspace in depth.  I suspect that it also remains denied for them so at first glance this may look like no change.  However, Ukraine has been slowly armed with PGM stand off weapons - GLSDBs, Storm Shadow etc to add to the arsenal of HIMARs and self loitering munitions.  Ukraine is still patched into what is likely the largest and most ambitious C4ISR architecture in the history of warfare, output of which they are able to receive targeting packages in near real time.

So What?  Ukraines ability to conduct an effective deep strike campaign in support of ground operations has expanded and accelerated.  Even though they have to stand off 100kms or more, they can still pickle barrel HVTs on the RA side with what is looking like impunity.

For the RA….not so much.  Their C4ISR was never world class and they have had it mauled for months now and no one to lean on for replacements.  Their AirPower is denied but they do not have a lot of stand-off PGM left as they pissed it away on terror attacks.  So we are likely to see the Russia. Air Force lobbing dumber munitions from further back in an attempt to stop a UA ground offensive on the move.  This is not good news for the Russian war.

A lot of this lies on the feet of the Winter Offensive.  This was a strategy of putting out a fire with one’s face.  Beyond turning convicts and conscripts into fertilizer it left a lot of hit priced equipment exposed and it got hit.  They spent thousands on long range missiles on apartment buildings and shopping malls, and now when they need them they are short.  Their logistics is a mess.

A lot of people still buy into “Russian Will = steel” well they are definitely going to need it as it may be all they have left at this point.

[Haiduk]

Interesting detail of first successfull assault of 3rd brigade against Russian 72nd brigade on 8th of May: burning enemy BMP on known video (at 5:52 on video above) is a result of KS-19 AA gun work %) This gun supported assault and was towed by truck. Like a FLAK 88 ) 

First news about KS-19 in UKR service appeared in April 2023. Defense Express assumed that can be not only captured Russian guns (four were abandoned during Balakliya-Izium operation), but also guns from stocks. Recently wasn't unable to restore KS-19 because absense of ammunition. But likely Bulgaria pledged own OF-412 ammo for them.  

 

KS-19 in UKR service on the photo

Captured during Balakliya operation Russian KS-19 

Edited May 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

35 minutes ago, dan/california said:

You know there is only so much good news a person can ingest on a weekend morning without cracking a beverage early.

Looks like Murz is envisioning the same scenario we have been tossing around here for a month or more and sees no hope of Russia being able to counter it due to months of squandered opportunity to prepare.

Good

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

  

6 hours ago, Doc844 said:

An old pro here, *cough*16 years *cough* since I had my uniform on.  Time flies.  We were always taught grenade or grenades, then straight in, over battlesights, single shots, one left, one right, sweep arcs, third man down the middle.  All dependant of size and what your assaulting obviously.  Good example is the video of the grenadier guards   in Helmand. 

However we did know of an excellent way of clearing bunkers that were tight, confined with little airflow.  Smoke grenades.  Bang one of them in and I can honestly say from experience that you can not breath, instant oxygen deprivation.  You will either come running out with your lungs screaming or stay inside and be incapacitated to some degree. 

Very effective.

Didn't want you to think I didn't see this   Thanks for the info.  OK, even though I'm in an armchair you have confirmed that what I thought was standard doctrine is.

I really don't know why smoke or tear gas aren't used more frequently for combating enclosed spaces.  A common element for all sides is that a) oxygen is not optional and b) nobody caries masks any more.  If the point is to dislodge the enemy, then it shouldn't matter how it is done provided it is within the rules of war.

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

Not storming bunkers for pay either, but I thought there was still outgoing fire coming from the bunker and that was why they didn't move for the clear. Also 'they' was like 1 guy throwing the grenades around the corner

And that, my friend, is exactly my point   These guys had a chance to develop a plan beforehand and having one guy throwing grenades in isolation seems to me to be a pretty flimsy plan.

Steve

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, Huba said:

Here's something interesting:

And here's more RU stuff burning:

 

 

Don't they have rules about going outside the fuel/ammo dump to smoke?  

That big a fire for that long is probably going to mean that bridge is toast.

[Haiduk]

UKR Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) soon will receive 105 German UAV Vector wich can be converted from copter to fixed-wing plane and back. Also this UAV is all-weather and has own AI, which allows identify targets.

  

[mosuri]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

There are some speculations/ suggestions that the 4 aircraft that were shot down were in fact one group on a strike mission. Su-34 was carrying the gliding bombs destined for Chernihiv, Su-35 was providing fighter escort and choppers EW support. Makes sense in my opinion, similar strikes were being reported since some time. RU flying these missions repeatedly would be asking for an ambush to happen - add some new capability on UA side (either new SAMs or A2A missiles) and you have a recipe for disaster.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1657368124788809728/video/2

This video is claimed to be one of the helicopter kills. Helicopter seems to fly quite high -- of course, impossible to tell the horizontal distance from a video that just shows sky but impact is seen at timestamp 0:08 and sound reaches ground at 0:15 so from observer to helicopter it is about 2 kilometres.

At the very least it's not hugging the earth as we see in most helicopter footage, and that perhaps makes sense for EW but also makes it a target that can be found out with a radar easily from afar.

 

[DesertFox]

The other side of the medal. Allegedly ukrainian ammo or fuel dump at Khmelnytskyy destroyed:

 

 

Edit:

Might have been old soviet ballistic rockets and their fuel stocks

 

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by DesertFox

[kraze]

So Patriots are pretty cool, aren't they.

Can we have more please?

[DesertFox]

This might be a hint for the black sea fleet:

 

 

[Haiduk]

31 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

The other side of the medal. Allegedly ukrainian ammo or fuel dump at Khmelnytskyy destroyed:

I heard that from 21 Shakhed 17 were shot down and 4 hit tarhets in Khmelnytskyi and oblast. Officially only told about drone with struck some "infrastructure object" in Khmelnytskyi oblast. Because of then was anounced about trains delay, lilely some railway power facility was hit. But about three Shakeds hits inside Khmelnytskyi city was mean only "21 citized were injured, in multiple buildings were broken windows and some got light damages". Now it's clear why. 

Khmelnytskiy passes missiles and Shakheds with bad results not in the first time. Alas, no conclusions to this time, as we can see.

Edited May 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Tu-95 are taking off in Murmansk oblast. Looks like retaliation for today's shot down aircraft

 

Edited May 13, 2023 by Haiduk

[chrisl]

42 minutes ago, mosuri said:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1657368124788809728/video/2

This video is claimed to be one of the helicopter kills. Helicopter seems to fly quite high -- of course, impossible to tell the horizontal distance from a video that just shows sky but impact is seen at timestamp 0:08 and sound reaches ground at 0:15 so from observer to helicopter it is about 2 kilometres.

At the very least it's not hugging the earth as we see in most helicopter footage, and that perhaps makes sense for EW but also makes it a target that can be found out with a radar easily from afar.

 

It was also still well inside Russia so they may have thought it was safe to fly at altitude. 

[Cogust]

What is that saying about assumptions again?

[Haiduk]

32 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

The other side of the medal. Allegedly ukrainian ammo or fuel dump at Khmelnytskyy destroyed:

From talks in our twitter - dump of aviation FAB bombs was struck. HE detonated, but without significant scattering of fragments.

[Taranis]

 

[Beleg85]

One of Ukrainian channels stated that Russians lost (perhaps in targeted strike) commander of 4th OMSR (one of brigades that covered southern pincers), his chief of staff, deputy commander of former separatists 2 Corps (!) and several staff officers "and it is not end of news". Perhaps Haiduk can confirm validity of this claim.

Also, regarding today sweeping of skyes from muscovite aviation, one of better-connected Polish reporters M.Ogdowski made allusions that his Ukrainian friends are very grateful to Italians for their help with new AA systems...could it be that SAMP/T just entered the stage? Seems like way beyond range of this system.

[DesertFox]

28 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Tu-95 are taking off in Murmansk oblast. Looks like retaliation for today's shot down aircraft

 

 

My prayers are with you!

[Haiduk]

30 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

One of Ukrainian channels stated that Russians lost (perhaps in targeted strike) commander of 4th OMSR (one of brigades that covered southern pincers), his chief of staff, deputy commander of former separatists 2 Corps (!) and several staff officers "and it is not end of news". Perhaps Haiduk can confirm validity of this claim.

Also, regarding today sweeping of skyes from muscovite aviation, one of better-connected Polish reporters M.Ogdowski made allusions that his Ukrainian friends are very grateful to Italians for their help with new AA systems...could it be that SAMP/T just entered the stage? Seems like way beyond range of this system.

LPR "cadre" brigade, which was moved there in recent weeks. Probably lossses will appear in Necromancer twitter after confirmation. Words of Shtefan "Klishchiivka is Ukriane" is just figure of speech - somebody already have interpreted it like "UKR troops liberated Klishchiivka", but this is not true. Likely HQ of 4th brigade was in this village and got a strike.

SAMP/T were offered not early than in June...

Edited May 13, 2023 by Haiduk