How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

49 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Could these be a failure of the newly introduced gliding kit for older bombs? Otherwise it's strange it's the second one falling in friendly territory. 

I doubt reason in gliding kits. Many usual FABs had problems with fuses - there were many photos of unexploded FAB-500, for example in Chernihiv oblast and near Avdiivka. Old bombs...

[panzermartin]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I doubt reason in gliding kits. Many usual FABs had problems with fuses - there were many photos of unexploded FAB-500, for example in Chernihiv oblast and near Avdiivka. Old bombs...

I understand fuse malfunctions are common with those and other bombs bombs but it's strange they fall like that in friendly ground. 

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I understand fuse malfunctions are common with those and other bombs bombs but it's strange they fall like that in friendly ground. 

Russian MoD said about "accidental munition dropping". Initially was knowing about one bomb, now turned out there are two %). Maybe a short circuit or false command in control line of jet... 

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I understand fuse malfunctions are common with those and other bombs bombs but it's strange they fall like that in friendly ground. 

It is probable that there are at least two separate problems here:

1.  The bomb landed in the wrong spot.  Whether it was pilot error, mechanical failure (premature drop), or a defect in the bomb's glide path are all possibilities here.

2.  The bomb did not detonate.  This could be because the fuse wasn't armed (related to above or ground crew mistake) or it was defective.

With Russia's history of problems it's really impossible to say what exactly happened.  The range of their incompetence, sloppy manufacturing standards, and the age of the equipment involved means everything is possible.

Steve

[panzermartin]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is probable that there are at least two separate problems here:

1.  The bomb landed in the wrong spot.  Whether it was pilot error, mechanical failure (premature drop), or a defect in the bomb's glide path are all possibilities here.

2.  The bomb did not detonate.  This could be because the fuse wasn't armed (related to above or ground crew mistake) or it was defective.

With Russia's history of problems it's really impossible to say what exactly happened.  The range of their incompetence, sloppy manufacturing standards, and the age of the equipment involved means everything is possible.

Steve

Yes it could be a combination of all thes above . I made the assumption because it seems lately they release these away from UA AA fire , even from inside their own borders? 

https://wavellroom.com/2023/04/17/russian-glide-bombs/

[DesertFox]

12 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

they release these away from UA AA fire , even from inside their own borders? 

Yes they do. 50-70km away from target. Thats why UKR desperately needs an antidote for this.

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2023/04/09/su-34-and-su-35-drop-1500-kg-gliding-bombs-stunning-ukraine/

[Kinophile]

Throwback to 2022,from Wikipedia, Sumy Cherniv campaign 

Look at all that empty space north/south of the sumy axis. The multiple choke points and awkward pathing of the invasion.  

Do we know more about the defense of Nizhyn, and Ichnya? 

Edited April 22, 2023 by Kinophile

[kimbosbread]

What is the inflection point for price/payload where it makes sense to have way less tank guns and tubed artillery (and less associated maintenance and logisitcs burden)? I was looking at the cost of tank and artillery rounds, and given the cost of the gun platform, it seems like we'll be rapidly approaching a point where it just isn't worth all the effort. I suppose that's the point of GLSDB, where slow and long range and cheap and smart-ish is the winning formula.

• 120mm APFSDS round (M829A4): 18kg, 3km range, $8-10k
• 155mm unguided (M795): 35kg, 24km, $800
• 155mm excalibur: 48kg, 40-70km range, $68k
• Javelin (just missile in tube): 15.9kg, 2.5-4km range, $240k, 8.4kg tandem HEAT warhead
• GMLRS (M31) 90km, $100k, 90kg warhead
• GLSDB: 130kg, 150km range,  $40k (for just the bomb, not the rocket motor kit), 16-93kg warhead
• Switchblade 600 (drone, no launcher): 23kg, 40km range(with 40 minutes loiter), supposedly cheaper than a Javelin but has a Javelin warhead
• Warmate drone: 6kg (drone, no launcher), 30km range (70m flight time), $12k unit cost in 2018, 300g HE-FRAG warhead

I can't help but think a big way to reduce cost is a cheaper, lighter launch platform. You could build a povery mini-HIMARS off an LC70 pickup (which can hold 1000+kg plus) and just toss a 50x 10kg drones on the bed. Not necessarily great for blowing up buildings, but for trashing a column of IFVs or infantry or trucks, seems like a decent setup. Gets even better if drones don't need terminal guidance or are entirely autonomous and choose targets once they get near (which triples the range as no datalink is needed).

 

[dan/california]

23 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

What is the inflection point for price/payload where it makes sense to have way less tank guns and tubed artillery (and less associated maintenance and logisitcs burden)? I was looking at the cost of tank and artillery rounds, and given the cost of the gun platform, it seems like we'll be rapidly approaching a point where it just isn't worth all the effort. I suppose that's the point of GLSDB, where slow and long range and cheap and smart-ish is the winning formula.

• 120mm APFSDS round (M829A4): 18kg, 3km range, $8-10k
• 155mm unguided (M795): 35kg, 24km, $800
• 155mm excalibur: 48kg, 40-70km range, $68k
• Javelin (just missile in tube): 15.9kg, 2.5-4km range, $240k, 8.4kg tandem HEAT warhead
• GMLRS (M31) 90km, $100k, 90kg warhead
• GLSDB: 130kg, 150km range,  $40k (for just the bomb, not the rocket motor kit), 16-93kg warhead
• Switchblade 600 (drone, no launcher): 23kg, 40km range(with 40 minutes loiter), supposedly cheaper than a Javelin but has a Javelin warhead
• Warmate drone: 6kg (drone, no launcher), 30km range (70m flight time), $12k unit cost in 2018, 300g HE-FRAG warhead

I can't help but think a big way to reduce cost is a cheaper, lighter launch platform. You could build a povery mini-HIMARS off an LC70 pickup (which can hold 1000+kg plus) and just toss a 50x 10kg drones on the bed. Not necessarily great for blowing up buildings, but for trashing a column of IFVs or infantry or trucks, seems like a decent setup. Gets even better if drones don't need terminal guidance or are entirely autonomous and choose targets once they get near (which triples the range as no datalink is needed).

 

If only we had a good simulator to test some of these ideas in? Anybody have any leads?

[kimbosbread]

13 minutes ago, dan/california said:

If only we had a good simulator to test some of these ideas in? Anybody have any leads?

There are a few things that are harder to simulate though:

• Smaller maintenance footprint
• Reduced logistical tail (including spare parts for maintenace)
• Ease of operation; ie do you just need a gps coordinate and can send it, or do you need to learn how different charges work, how to aim the damn thing etc.?

On the last point, I think LLMs will be really interesting for interacting with complex weapons systems. If you could talk to it like a reasonably smart person and just tell it to do stuff, that would get very interesting. For example, "I think there are some Russians in the forest 10km over there. If you find any, report back and then attack any attached missile teams or commanders you can find".

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

There are a few things that are harder to simulate though:

• Smaller maintenance footprint
• Reduced logistical tail (including spare parts for maintenace)
• Ease of operation; ie do you just need a gps coordinate and can send it, or do you need to learn how different charges work, how to aim the damn thing etc.?

On the last point, I think LLMs will be really interesting for interacting with complex weapons systems. If you could talk to it like a reasonably smart person and just tell it to do stuff, that would get very interesting. For example, "I think there are some Russians in the forest 10km over there. If you find any, report back and then attack any attached missile teams or commanders you can find".

Actually, all you need to do is make the logistical footprint a big parts of the points system. When you get smacked with what you can support instead of one Abrams people would make different choices. 

And helicopters would just go away...

Edited April 22, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

Chineese ambasador in France made a statement that ex-USSR countries don't have a soverreign status. 

BTW in Russia since autumn of 2022 signature campaing has been lasting under appeal to Supreme Court to recognize USSR desintigration by Belovezha Accords as illegal.

Also there is some concerning in Ukriane about France efforts to use a China to convince Ukriane and Russia (but Ukraine first of all) to cease fire and start negociations. 

 

 

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Chineese ambasador in France made a statement that ex-USSR countries don't have a soverreign status. 

BTW in Russia since autumn of 2022 signature campaing has been lasting under appeal to Supreme Court to recognize USSR desintigration by Belovezha Accords as illegal.

Also there is some concerning in Ukriane about France efforts to use a China to convince Ukriane and Russia (but Ukraine first of all) to cease fire and start negociations. 

 

 

sounds good. 

step 1 Russia removed from UN security council...

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Chineese ambasador in France made a statement that ex-USSR countries don't have a soverreign status. 

BTW in Russia since autumn of 2022 signature campaing has been lasting under appeal to Supreme Court to recognize USSR desintigration by Belovezha Accords as illegal.

Also there is some concerning in Ukriane about France efforts to use a China to convince Ukriane and Russia (but Ukraine first of all) to cease fire and start negociations. 

 

 

Macron is going to get a nastygram from the POTUS, albeit probably a private one. The Chinese are trying to square their rhetoric on Taiwan with their position on Ukraine. Their answer seems to imply the entire Western world should have gone to real wartime ammo production six months ago. 

Edited April 22, 2023 by dan/california

[Taranis]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Chineese ambasador in France made a statement that ex-USSR countries don't have a soverreign status. 

BTW in Russia since autumn of 2022 signature campaing has been lasting under appeal to Supreme Court to recognize USSR desintigration by Belovezha Accords as illegal.

Also there is some concerning in Ukriane about France efforts to use a China to convince Ukriane and Russia (but Ukraine first of all) to cease fire and start negociations. 

 

 

I am not surprised by the Chinese ambassador's remarks. The Chinese always see things in their interest. Not recognizing Ukraine, which has "secession" from the USSR and Russia, is to make an undertone with Taiwan, which has separated from China...

Regarding your concerns, whatever happens you are the only masters on board to choose when there will be a ceasefire. Even if France ceased its support, many other Western countries will still be there. You are determined and within your rights! "Russian warship, go f*ck yourself" !

PS: the journalist still puts it in his face 

[Beleg85]

Another Krab down, or video of earlier accident. This time Lancet hit ammo truck that was (against procedures) parked next to howitzer, which resulted in complete destruction. There are reports of several similar events with other self-propelled guns too. Russians learned how to wait till those pieces leave their (relatively well protected) nests, follow them with drones to ressuply/fefuel and hit with Lancet when sorrounded by other vehicles. Some well-connected milanalysts here write about one example of destruction of 3 guns this way with single missile. Ukrainian artillery reportedly lose way too many pieces due to lack of care about procedures or simpy tiredness of crews, at least that is what people who trained them write.

Edited April 22, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

What is the inflection point for price/payload where it makes sense to have way less tank guns and tubed artillery (and less associated maintenance and logisitcs burden)? I was looking at the cost of tank and artillery rounds, and given the cost of the gun platform, it seems like we'll be rapidly approaching a point where it just isn't worth all the effort. I suppose that's the point of GLSDB, where slow and long range and cheap and smart-ish is the winning formula.

• 120mm APFSDS round (M829A4): 18kg, 3km range, $8-10k
• 155mm unguided (M795): 35kg, 24km, $800
• 155mm excalibur: 48kg, 40-70km range, $68k
• Javelin (just missile in tube): 15.9kg, 2.5-4km range, $240k, 8.4kg tandem HEAT warhead
• GMLRS (M31) 90km, $100k, 90kg warhead
• GLSDB: 130kg, 150km range,  $40k (for just the bomb, not the rocket motor kit), 16-93kg warhead
• Switchblade 600 (drone, no launcher): 23kg, 40km range(with 40 minutes loiter), supposedly cheaper than a Javelin but has a Javelin warhead
• Warmate drone: 6kg (drone, no launcher), 30km range (70m flight time), $12k unit cost in 2018, 300g HE-FRAG warhead

I can't help but think a big way to reduce cost is a cheaper, lighter launch platform. You could build a povery mini-HIMARS off an LC70 pickup (which can hold 1000+kg plus) and just toss a 50x 10kg drones on the bed. Not necessarily great for blowing up buildings, but for trashing a column of IFVs or infantry or trucks, seems like a decent setup. Gets even better if drones don't need terminal guidance or are entirely autonomous and choose targets once they get near (which triples the range as no datalink is needed).

 

All good points, though I'm pretty sure the more recent production cost of a Javelin missile (not the CLU controller) is around $80k, not $240k.  I think the last price I remember for the CLU was around $120k.

Aaaaaaaand, that got me curious so I checked.  Somewhere around $80k for the missile is correct, but the CLU cost now appears to be closer to $100k.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/05/03/lockheed-ramp-up-javelin-production/

The one thing to consider about the weapon systems is what they are intended to kill.  An anti-aircraft missile, for example, is intended to take out a hard to replace aerial platform probably worth many millions.  An Excalibur could be used to take out something 10x more expensive, but it could just as easily be used to knock out a bunker with 5 mobiks hiding.  Depending on the cost assessment of Human life and the costs of taking out the bunker another way, that could be a good investment.  Hitting it with a $3m HIMARS... well, not that good a return on investment there!

It's a complex topic and not surprisingly it comes up here quite regularly.  However, I agree with you that the modern battlefield probably needs a rebalancing of less expensive, but easy to produce in quantity, and stuff that is expensive as well as difficult to produce.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

48 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Chineese ambasador in France made a statement that ex-USSR countries don't have a soverreign status. 

BTW in Russia since autumn of 2022 signature campaing has been lasting under appeal to Supreme Court to recognize USSR desintigration by Belovezha Accords as illegal.

Also there is some concerning in Ukriane about France efforts to use a China to convince Ukriane and Russia (but Ukraine first of all) to cease fire and start negociations. 

 

 

I hope that big face palm sound I heard coming over the Atlantic was Macron realizing how stupid he looks for trying to reason with the unreasonable.

Steve

[The_Capt]

50 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Chineese ambasador in France made a statement that ex-USSR countries don't have a soverreign status. 

BTW in Russia since autumn of 2022 signature campaing has been lasting under appeal to Supreme Court to recognize USSR desintigration by Belovezha Accords as illegal.

Also there is some concerning in Ukriane about France efforts to use a China to convince Ukriane and Russia (but Ukraine first of all) to cease fire and start negociations. 

 

 

Next they will be asking for Alaska back.  So when someone says “Revisionist Power” this is what they are talking about.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

All good points, though I'm pretty sure the more recent production cost of a Javelin missile (not the CLU controller) is around $80k, not $240k.  I think the last price I remember for the CLU was around $120k.

Aaaaaaaand, that got me curious so I checked.  Somewhere around $80k for the missile is correct, but the CLU cost now appears to be closer to $100k.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/05/03/lockheed-ramp-up-javelin-production/

The one thing to consider about the weapon systems is what they are intended to kill.  An anti-aircraft missile, for example, is intended to take out a hard to replace aerial platform probably worth many millions.  An Excalibur could be used to take out something 10x more expensive, but it could just as easily be used to knock out a bunker with 5 mobiks hiding.  Depending on the cost assessment of Human life and the costs of taking out the bunker another way, that could be a good investment.  Hitting it with a $3m HIMARS... well, not that good a return on investment there!

It's a complex topic and not surprisingly it comes up here quite regularly.  However, I agree with you that the modern battlefield probably needs a rebalancing of less expensive, but easy to produce in quantity, and stuff that is expensive as well as difficult to produce.

Steve

The clearest possible example in this war is helicopters being used to deliver unguided rockets by launching them on a upward trajectory from their own side of the FEBA with an aiming system that is approximate at best. You simply cannot convince me those rocket pods could not have been mounted on a heavy duty pickup truck and aimed with an iphone  for a twentieth the total cost/effort, and a considerably high chance to hit what they are aiming at.

[dan/california]

50 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Another Krab down, or video of earlier accident. This time Lancet hit ammo truck that was (against procedures) parked next to howitzer, which resulted in complete destruction. There are reports of several similar events with other self-propelled guns too. Russians learned how to wait till those pieces leave their (relatively well protected) nests, follow them with drones to ressuply/fefuel and hit with Lancet when sorrounded by other vehicles. Some well-connected milanalysts here write about one example of destruction of 3 guns this way with single missile. Ukrainian artillery reportedly lose way too many pieces due to lack of care about procedures or simpy tiredness of crews, at least that is what people who trained them write.

Quote

 

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2022/12/07/us-army-laser-stryker/

 

 

If war really is imminent in the Taiwan Straight, these need to getting a plane to Taiwan while the paint is still drying. If the best intelligence is that the Chinese haven't lost their minds, they need to be on the way Ukraine with same sense of urgency. The army grinding through its gradual peacetime development process on this system reflects a lack of strategic imagination.

 

[Haiduk]

Kostiantyn Mashovets writes that Russian repairing units encountered with problems with field repairing of damaged vehicles of new types

As if according to Russian reports situation is next:

- repair of T-90M both remote-controlled MG turret and commander's panoramic sight  almost impossible in field conditions

- substitution of devices of control, interlink and commutators as well as R-168 radios is impossible without specialists of manufactureres, especially if software setup and settings required.

- gunner's thermal sight "Sosna-U" needs upgrade for better armored protection - it takes frequent mechanical damages during enemy shelling, which doesn't allow to say about it's full-fledged exploitation in combat
 

- deficite of foreign electronic components for timely repairs

- low level of parts unifiaction 

 

Edited April 22, 2023 by Haiduk

[NamEndedAllen]

11 hours ago, panzermartin said:

19 still better than 1.

North Korea agrees with your view.

Greece does not.

 

[Haiduk]

Just one more miracle at the war

 

[Haiduk]

Combat count of Gepard