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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

With our technology at hand, return of Westphalian international order means we are going straight into Fallout series scenario. World is too connected for it.

It is inevitable and necessary for alternatives to be reached, the previous US president would've withdrawn from NATO. Say that actually happens. Then what? Your desire to see the rules based international order upheld might not be enough to keep it going. The alternative in such a case can't be despair and denial. People must step up. 

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1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Ironically the most expansionist feature of China was kickstarted from western companies/goverments , mostly US, that transfered all their hardware there to cut the costs and make some more free cash. That started to turn them into the behemoth we are all depended upon and in case of a war this will kickback mercilessly against all of us. Their military expansionism is an infant in comparison. When was the last time China army went to war? Started a war even? I can't remember.    

Tibet 1950

Sino-Indian 1962

Sino-Vietnamese War 1979

The others such as clashes with Soviet, India, Vietnamese post-WWII you'll no doubt ignore also. Won't even bother mentioning Korea ('50) or Vietnam ('60's) as you will no doubt believe they were/are freedom fighters.

You really need to allow yourself growth and accept nuance in your world view. It's not always US bad - other side good.

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4 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

And in the Holy Fudge category of combat footage, we have a new king:

POV guy shows great personal courage, head is on a swivel. Top notch NCO-ing going on.

This fight took place on 9th of April. Probably this is fight for the road near Khromove, "Honor" company of 1st mech.battalion "Da Vicnci" of 67th mech.brigade. 

Dead soldier "Norman" at first minutes of video is Oleh Kornay

Зображення

Also in the same day "Honor" lost other soldier "Tyomych" - Artem Berezniuk

FtbBIc9XwAIijQp?format=jpg&name=small

Edited by Haiduk
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7 minutes ago, Howler said:

You really need to allow yourself growth and accept nuance in your world view. It's not always US bad - other side good.

I'm far, faaar from that. I'm quite modest. But sometimes this board has the exact opposite world view. A fairytelish one if we remind ourselves how many times we make LOTR comparisons here drawing a distinct line between the enlighted of this world (West ) vs the orcs, russians, chinese whatever. 

It's a mentality heading for a total clash of the two worlds, maybe I'm naive enough thinking we can prevent it. 

 

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34 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

It is inevitable and necessary for alternatives to be reached, the previous US president would've withdrawn from NATO. Say that actually happens.

It doesn't happen, since leaving NATO was from the start Trump's...well trump card in negotiations with members who did not wanted to share burden. It wasn't real from the get go. US leaving NATO is as realistic as Men in High Castle or similar storylines. It may one day modify its structures and purposes, though.

34 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Your desire to see the rules based international order upheld might not be enough to keep it going. The alternative in such a case can't be despair and denial. People must step up.

People "stepped in" during Yugoslavian wars, Rwanda, ISIS and myriad other conflicts. Didn't end that well. Also, I am not immune to all inequalities and absurds of US-held order. Any serious alternative is simply much scarier than it. And even if it wouldn't be, sole transition period would probably shake our global civilization to its core. Should I remind that for many of those now peacefull states obtaining nukes would be best insurance in chaotic world? Not even mentiioning non-state actors, always thriving in chaos.

Btw. I remind you folks, we are here at this topic preciselly because people stepped in, in 2014, in last true revolution in Europe. And they did for  their country being part of western-ruled order, not against it. Or at the very least, they did it to not be part of this darwinistic world various autocraties are trying to procure and advertise to us. This is real cause of this war and ripples its sending across global order- not machinations of Monsanto, Lockheed Martin, Biden son or Bildberg Club.

Edited by Beleg85
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14 minutes ago, Howler said:

Tibet 1950

Sino-Indian 1962

Sino-Vietnamese War 1979

The others such as clashes with Soviet, India, Vietnamese post-WWII you'll no doubt ignore also. Won't even bother mentioning Korea ('50) or Vietnam ('60's) as you will no doubt believe they were/are freedom fighters.

You really need to allow yourself growth and accept nuance in your world view. It's not always US bad - other side good.

Case in point, someone here not actually against anything mentioned, just in favor of one side doing it more than the other with some implicit redbaiting thrown in on the side.  Go team go!

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25 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

It doesn't happen, since leaving NATO was from the start Trump's...well trump card in negotiations with members who did not wanted to share burden. It wasn't real from the get go. US leaving NATO is as realistic as Men in High Castle or similar storylines. It may one day modify its structures and purposes, though.

People "stepped in" during Yugoslavian wars, Rwanda, ISIS and myriad other conflicts. Didn't end that well. Also, I am not immune to all inequalities and absurds of US-held order. Any serious alternative is simply much scarier than it. And even if it wouldn't be, sole transition period would probably shake our global civilization to its core. Should I remind that for many of those now peacefull states obtaining nukes would be best insurance in chaotic world? Not even mentiioning non-state actors, always thriving in chaos.

 

If I can be forgiven for misquoting the the current U.S. President, the choice is not between the U.S. led system, and some mythical utopia. It is between the U.S. led system and some combination of Xi Jinping thought and whatever you want to call the nationalist/mafia insanity running Russia. Europe could of course increase it defense spending to six percent of GDP for fifteen years, because that is what it would take to compensate for decades of barely spending one. Resolve the vast array of issues that must be addressed to prevent Hungary or similar from selling its veto to Putin, and take a number of other difficult steps to become the world power its economy and population would imply it should be. If Europe did ALL of those things it could take a third seat at the table with the U.S. and Russia/China, I regard them as a single block at this point. Frankly the U.S.would rather relived, although I am sure there would be the obligatory whining. Anyone care to give odds on this actually happening? 

Edited by dan/california
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Situation in Bakhmut. 

Russians activated today on northern flank, attacking on Bohdanivka village and near Khromove. Multiple infantry assault groups attacks with heavy artillery support, enemy has minimal advance along one of tree-plants. 

Зображення

Heavy clashes along Rose Alley [north of the city  - Russians can't cut the road west ftom Khromove, so they now try to cut this road inside the city from its northern part]. Russians Along Levanevskkoho str. and Hliba Slobodina str. Wagners and VDV advance, UKR forces conducted maneuver defense. Heavy situation west from railroad station area - Russians advance along Kolpakovoy str. and to north-east along Pushkina str. On the southern flank is relatively quiet - UKR arty shells Russians behind the forest. 

2 hours aho

We have retaken two streets, by reasons of safety I will not tell what exactly for now.

 

Edited by Haiduk
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3 hours ago, dan/california said:

You are making the same assumptions about Xi's rationality that everyone made about Putin's. That assumption is at least somewhat debatable. Xi might decide he could care less about the economic damage, and that he is determined to go down in the books as the guy who took Taiwan back. Apparently it is a disorder that aging absolute dictators get. The only real guarantee he won't do that is the U.S. having the ability to sink the Chinese navy in a weekend and maintain at least air denial over Taiwan. 

No I'm not making that assumption. At the same time I'm not making any conclusions to the contrary. Both the general and military intelligence services over here are of the opinion that China is the 'main threat'. They are playing our game with their own rules. Perhaps it's just that we aren't as gun savvy / gung ho overhere, but we aren't looking to solve the issue in a 'saving private ryan' moment. China is steadily building up it's navy, but without power fantasies one can conclude that their prowess hasn't been put to the test yet. They don't have a dozen Carrier strike groups power projection. They have hypersonic anti ship missiles but their accuracy isn't assertable. Can they reliably sink/neuter an aircraft carrier (strike group) without nuclear warheads? For their own carriers, show me thousands of sorties and precision. Paper capability versus proven capability and experience (US has got plenty). That isn't to say that they (CN) are crap; nobody knows for sure really, including whether we'd be crap against them ;-).

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1 hour ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Case in point, someone here not actually against anything mentioned, just in favor of one side doing it more than the other with some implicit redbaiting thrown in on the side.  Go team go!

Perhaps the poor beaten horse is dead by now? How about getting back to the actual war in Ukraine?

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5 hours ago, masc said:

Amazing footage, some of the best we've ever seen I think.  The squad leader rolling out of the bunker to the left there shows how important taking the initiative/violence of action is.  He neutralized that Russian squad's attack with about a magazine from his M4.

"What's up, orcs! It's our field, **** off!" 

Legend. 

Interesting how he kept shooting out the Russian immediately in front of the bunker, what four-five times? That's a guy who's taking zero chances. 

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Looks like UKR artillery brigades now have heavy MLRS unit, like in Russian artillery brigades. 

Turkish TRLG-230 230 mm MLRS on armament of new-established 49th artillery brigade

TRLG-230 allows to shot with both usual unguided and laser guided rockets on 70 km. Last modification of rockets can shot on 150 km, but Ukraine got in November 2022 only 70 km version

 

Edited by Haiduk
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8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Interesting how he kept shooting out the Russian immediately in front of the bunker, what four-five times? That's a guy who's taking zero chances. 

More interesting - this is the same bunker, which you can see on the video, when "Honor" fighters threw with grenades during assault and shot a Russian, who tried to crawl from the hole on the backside. 

Edited by Haiduk
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16 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

"What's up, orcs! It's our field, **** off!" 

Legend. 

Interesting how he kept shooting out the Russian immediately in front of the bunker, what four-five times? That's a guy who's taking zero chances. 

The funny thing about that video is the captions kept saying "orcs" but I'm pretty sure I kept hearing him say "pidor" actually.  The not-so-nice word for a homosexual man.

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12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

More interesting - this is the same bunker, which you can see on the video, when "Honor" fighters threw with grenades during assault and shot a Russian, who tried to crawl from the hole on the backside. 

Hah! I swear,  I SWEAR I thought it looked familiar. It was the 2nd exit that caught my eye,  the layout was similar, plus the horizon and nearby trench. 

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Strange huge green flash in the sky in southern-eastern part of Kyiv was spotted. Initially it's was reported about AD work (after the flash air raid alarm was announced), but later information has appeared this could be parts of NASA satellite, burned in atmosphere. 

Alot of memes have appeared immediately )

Зображення

Зображення

 

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21 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

What's the Ukr for "orcs"? 

Like in English - ork (sing.) / orky (plur.)

@masc

Among soldiers this name "orcs" is not popular, it's used mostly among civilians and bloggers. Soldiers really name them "pidory" (Russian also often name in this way UKR soldiers). In whole, translation of dialogues and commands during this fight is VERY approximate because of many obscent lexic and jargones.  

Edited by Haiduk
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19 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Strange huge green flash in the sky in southern-eastern part of Kyiv was spotted. Initially it's was reported about AD work (after the flash air raid alarm was announced), but later information has appeared this could be parts of NASA satellite, burned in atmosphere. 

Alot of memes have appeared immediately )

Зображення

Зображення

 

It’s not due to come in til 2130 eastern time (US) tonight.

so it’s probably aliens.

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