How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vic4]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

Thank god we are done with Trump discussion. That can’t impact Ukraine until at earliest Jan 2024 and by then we are hopefully in a whole different place militarily. The big discussion then will be (I hope) the financial support for reconstruction. 

I get that US partisan politics is generally frowned upon here but unfortunately the sad truth is that it is the bull in the china shop, elephant in the room, (insert tired cliche here); in regards to the war and the literal future of Ukraine. As such the magnitude and weight that hinges upon the ’24 election in regards to Ukraine is crushingly pivotal. A second Trump presidency serves as the greatest threat to the viability of Ukraine being able to maintain its military advantage, receiving reparations, or prosecuting war crimes just to name a few of the most strident issues. As has been stated by more than a few of the forum’s European members, NATO is primarily based on US hegemony. Whether that in itself is good or bad or if US hegemony is good or bad is irrelevant. Thankfully as has been noted here, the current trajectory is stable, even on a partisan level in a majority support for Ukraine. Let’s hope it stays that way.

Trump: 2.23.2022

“I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, ‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine — of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful,” Trump said in a radio interview with “The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show.” “He used the word ‘independent’ and ‘we’re gonna go out and we’re gonna go in and we’re gonna help keep peace.’ You gotta say that’s pretty savvy.”

Politico: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/23/trump-putin-ukraine-invasion-00010923

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

hcrof is dead on here. In particular a 120mm breach loading mortar makes more sense by the day vs 120mm smoothbore designed to send APFSDS down range. You have to show most of the turret to shoot APFSDS, that seems ever less healthy even with the best armor and APS on the planet. 

I am mildly concerned that some wrong lessons could be drawn from this war if the late model NATO tanks show up, and just shreds giant gaps in in the crumbling and corroded mess that currently passes for the Russian army. Not that  would be unhappy about the Russians getting shredded, but it would reduce pressure to rethink things as much as I think the Pentagon and various other defense ministries need to rethink them. I mean the Chinese could be as stupid as the Russians have been even after watching the Russian's disaster, but I don't find it likely.

Give the mortar a round that's got a small amount of guiding/targeting ability and an EFP, have its fire directed by drones, and it's a bit like a ground based Apache Longbow, but potentially cheaper, stealthier (give it an electric motor and it doesn't make noise when stationary), and able to carry more rounds.

[dan/california]

51 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Give the mortar a round that's got a small amount of guiding/targeting ability and an EFP, have its fire directed by drones, and it's a bit like a ground based Apache Longbow, but potentially cheaper, stealthier (give it an electric motor and it doesn't make noise when stationary), and able to carry more rounds.

Can I be greedy and throw in electromagnetic impulse for the mortar, instead of charges? Or would that be gilding the lily?

[Ales Dvorak]

12 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Tanks sent in Ukraine won't change anything said croatian admiral Davor Domazet -Lošo in his 2 hours interview.  ( Problem - number of tanks and different systems )

( I can send link, but interview is in croatian language.)

Edited March 28, 2023 by Ales Dvorak

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Tanks sent in Ukraine won't change anything said croatian admiral Davor Domazet -Lošo in his 2 hours interview.  ( Problem - number of tanks and different systems )

( I can send link, but interview is in croatian language.)

I guess that's why he is an admiral not a general? Seriously though, I think most of us here agree that a few tanks won't be a game changer by themselves. Then again, I guess even if they are more symbolic in nature, for now, a morale boost from shiny new toys can have a very real effect.

[DesertFox]

Holy ****! Ghostdriver flying in your direction...

 

 

[Billy Ringo]

Trump's support continues to decline.  Those that never liked him--still don't like him.  And many who supported him, (or voted for him only because they thought he was the better of two bad choices) have turned away from him.  

There are still some ardent Trump supporters and they get more notice than they deserve.  But those are decreasing every day.  I'm a conservative who voted for him twice and I, like most people I know, just want him to go away.

He'll continue to bluster as long as it generates money and feeds his ego.  But in my strong opinion he will never be president again.

 

 

Edited March 28, 2023 by Billy Ringo
clarification.

[Sekai]

3 hours ago, Ales Dvorak said:

Tanks sent in Ukraine won't change anything said croatian admiral Davor Domazet -Lošo in his 2 hours interview.  ( Problem - number of tanks and different systems )

( I can send link, but interview is in croatian language.)

Reminds me of that particular Germany Navy Chief.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/german-navy-chief-quits-after-saying-putin-deserves-respect-over-ukraine

Peacetime generals or in this case admirals truly give something to think about. They still consider Ukraine to be somewhat incompetent, even though they don't state that directly.

Edited March 28, 2023 by Sekai

[Seminole]

1 hour ago, Billy Ringo said:

Trump's support continues to decline.  Those that never liked him--still don't like him.  And many who supported him, (or voted for him only because they thought he was the better of two bad choices) have turned away from him.  

There are still some ardent Trump supporters and they get more notice than they deserve.  But those are decreasing every day.  I'm a conservative who voted for him twice and I, like most people I know, just want him to go away.

He'll continue to bluster as long as it generates money and feeds his ego.  But in my strong opinion he will never be president again.

I think we have to hope for him to just die, 'cause he ain't going away.

I knew his favorability ratings were upside down, but I didn't realize until looking at 538 this morning that they essentially mirror Biden's.

[Ales Dvorak]

13 minutes ago, Sekai said:

Reminds me of that particular Germany Navy Chief.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/23/german-navy-chief-quits-after-saying-putin-deserves-respect-over-ukraine

Peacetime generals or in this case admirals truly give something to think about. They still consider Ukraine to be somewhat incompetent, even though they don't state that directly.

I checked CV of German Navy Chef and I think Domazet's CV is a little different.  

"They still consider Ukraine to be somewhat incompetent, even though they don't state that directly"

Well, time will tell ....

 

[Chibot Mk IX]

Two questions here, not sure if these have been discussed before:

1, While we have occasionally seen some cases of AFV deploy smoke, neither side has used artillery smoke rounds to generate a smoke screen protecting the attack, what is the reason behind that?

 

2, For the BMP-1/2 used by both side (except new built BMP-2M), none seems to carry turret roof ATGM launcher. Are these ATGM Launchers removed from vehicle due to poor maintenance conditions?  

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

I think we have to hope for him to just die, 'cause he ain't going away.

Let's not stray into that sort of territory, OK?

I think the speculation of what might happen if a Republican takes the White House in 2 years is played out here.  Too speculative (i.e. too early in the election cycle) and the war will be decided by then so it's not relevant to our discussion.

Steve

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Two questions here, not sure if these have been discussed before:

1, While we have occasionally seen some cases of AFV deploy smoke, neither side has used artillery smoke rounds to generate a smoke screen protecting the attack, what is the reason behind that?

 

2, For the BMP-1/2 used by both side (except new built BMP-2M), none seems to carry turret roof ATGM launcher. Are these ATGM Launchers removed from vehicle due to poor maintenance conditions?  

 

 

Do it know as to #2 but as to #1, good question.  Both sides have smoke ammunition but we have not seen it being employed that often.  My guess is that smoke on the modern battlefield acts as a big flashing sign “hey look over here!”  If both sides have tac UAS and ISR a bunch of smoke anywhere is going to draw a lot of attention.  It may blind locally but once it pulls in a half dozen UAS any advantages kinda go out the window.

What I am interested to see is if either side starts using smoke as a feint mechanism drawing attention in one place while putting main effort somewhere else.

[chrisl]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Do it know as to #2 but as to #1, good question.  Both sides have smoke ammunition but we have not seen it being employed that often.  My guess is that smoke on the modern battlefield acts as a big flashing sign “hey look over here!”  If both sides have tac UAS and ISR a bunch of smoke anywhere is going to draw a lot of attention.  It may blind locally but once it pulls in a half dozen UAS any advantages kinda go out the window.

What I am interested to see is if either side starts using smoke as a feint mechanism drawing attention in one place while putting main effort somewhere else.

Smoke is also less useful if your opponent has IR optics.  Russia could use it, but may have logistical issues stocking it in the right places, and then at least some UA forces (many drones, some ground units) will see through it anyway.  
 

Ukraine could arguably use it more effectively, but they seem to use mass fires much less, for a combination of logistical and doctrinal reasons (essentially as you describe)

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

2, For the BMP-1/2 used by both side (except new built BMP-2M), none seems to carry turret roof ATGM launcher. Are these ATGM Launchers removed from vehicle due to poor maintenance conditions?  

There was some discussion about this early last year.  Someone posted some information that was more than guessing, but I am struggling to remember what it was.  IIRC the decision was made that it wasn't very practical and so it was better to have ATGM systems dismounted by default.  This seems reasonable. 

The US made a decision a long time ago to only mount ATGMs on vehicles if a) the vehicle is dedicated to the AT role and b) if it is "under armor" protected.  This makes sense because before Fire and Forget (aka Javelin and TOW2B) became a thing the vehicle had to remain in place until the missile impacted.  That's not something you want to encourage light vehicles to do without special crew training.  The old concept of not confusing the roles of weaponry or vehicles exists for a lot of practical reasons!

However, the widespread introduction of RWS and Javelin has changed this equation.  You can now have a light, non-AT dedicated vehicle capable of firing at least one ATGM without additional risk to its survival.  Javelin is also something that does not take a lot of training to use effectively.  In this case adding Javelin to something like a MRAP or Stryker doesn't violate the principles of not confusing crews about the role of their vehicle on the battlefield.

Just one man's opinion

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Smoke is also less useful if your opponent has IR optics.  Russia could use it, but may have logistical issues stocking it in the right places, and then at least some UA forces (many drones, some ground units) will see through it anyway.  
 

Ukraine could arguably use it more effectively, but they seem to use mass fires much less, for a combination of logistical and doctrinal reasons (essentially as you describe)

I think possibly it is a logistics thing for both sides. 

Both are under a lot of stress/strain to get HE rounds to the front where they are needed.  Every smoke shell that is speculatively moved to a location and stored in case there's a good use for it is taking the place of an HE round that will be used.

On the Ukrainian side it's even more strain because it relies on shipments from its allies.  Now it's every smoke round is taking the place of an HE round on a train or plane.

I suspect battlefield commanders have decided that smoke just isn't all that important and the logistics folks are happy to comply with keeping things simple.

Steve

[DesertFox]

Thermals rule!

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Russians continue to try and counter the narrative that they are the Nazis by, uhm, acting like Nazis   Faked video supposedly showing Ukrainian soldiers terrorizing a mother and small child.  Plenty of red flags caused OSINT folks to dig deeper and they managed to geolocate the video to 30km behind the lines in Russian held Donbas:

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Special Kherson Cat is having a really good run of videos!

Here's an interesting (unconfirmed) tactic used in Bakhmut.  Ukrainian forces loaded a building full of explosives thinking that if they lost control of the district that Russia would use it as a base of operations.  After Ukraine withdrew they waited for the building to fill up with Russians then detonated it.  Again, this is totally unconfirmed, but the video is from Ukraine and the explosion looks too large for any form of artillery Ukraine has:

 And another irreplaceable TOR system taken "offline":

Very clear video of an ATGM slamming into the side of a BMP.  The caption says Javelin, but more likely Stugna or TOW as it is flat trajectory and that's unlikely how someone would use a Javelin (Direct Attack Mode) unless VERY close.  Missile looks too big for an NLAW and it impacted instead of flying over, so there's that too.

Interesting to see how much power remained after impact.  Some portion of the missile came out the other side and looks like it went 100+ meters.

Steve

[Kinophile]

Wow,  from frontline trench to Minister of Education & Science,  Do Not Pass Go and no,  you can't bring an RPG-7 to your first Cabinet meeting... 

 

[Kinophile]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's an interesting (unconfirmed) tactic used in Bakhmut.  Ukrainian forces loaded a building full of explosives thinking that if they lost control of the district that Russia would use it as a base of operations.  After Ukraine withdrew they waited for the building to fill up with Russians then detonated it.  Again, this is totally unconfirmed, but the video is from Ukraine and the explosion looks too large for any form of artillery Ukraine has:

 

Steve

It's not the first time I've seen that approach. At least two other different videos from Bahkmut show the same tactic,  different buildings.  First I saw was late January.

Interestingly I have funny memory they were also done by an SOF unit, don't know if the same one.  Ill see if I can find the vids. 

But @Haiduk can probably shed better light. 

Edited March 28, 2023 by Kinophile

[ftukfgufyrdy]

5 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

Trump's support continues to decline.  Those that never liked him--still don't like him.  And many who supported him, (or voted for him only because they thought he was the better of two bad choices) have turned away from him.  

There are still some ardent Trump supporters and they get more notice than they deserve.  But those are decreasing every day.  I'm a conservative who voted for him twice and I, like most people I know, just want him to go away.

He'll continue to bluster as long as it generates money and feeds his ego.  But in my strong opinion he will never be president again.

 

 

100% agree. I thought he was the better of two choices back in 2020 after memeing with my friends about him in 2016 back in high school. But turns out he's just dumb. I hope he doesn't make it back onto the ballot otherwise 2024 is gonna be another really dumb match between bad choices again. 

[ftukfgufyrdy]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

It's not the first time I've seen that approach. At least two other different videos from Bahkmut show the same tactic,  different buildings.  First I saw was late January.

Interestingly I have funny memory they were also done by an SOF unit, don't know if the same one.  Ill see if I can find the vids. 

But @Haiduk can probably shed better light. 

Yeah I just chatted with my friend about this and told him about using breaching teams in CMBS. He's a royal engineer commando and told me that his unit had just finished a recent training where they rigged a building to blow when the enemy comes in to occupy it. 

[NamEndedAllen]

5 hours ago, Seminole said:

I think we have to hope for him to just die, 'cause he ain't going away.

I knew his favorability ratings were upside down, but I didn't realize until looking at 538 this morning that they essentially mirror Biden's.

But he is predictably winning the race for the Republican nomination, where his ratings are on the rise. DeSantis is plunging. No one else moves the needle. So we are looking at a 2024 race between two candidates with similarly (un) favorable numbers. Suggesting another near even race. Bottom line is that it is far too early to make absolute predictions. Lots of time tor unforeseen circumstances to occur, along with the solidly entrenched political divide.This underscores the critical need for the West to stop any further twiddling and handwringing on delivering everything needed now for the decisive knockout punch to Russia. Not to mention the complicated aftermath following that defeat. Because broad uncertainty about the USA will only increase as 2024 approaches. Uncertainty that will give Europeans pause. Win now, on the battlefield.

 https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-holds-double-digit-lead-over-desantis-far-ahead-rest-field-early-2024-polls

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, ftukfgufyrdy said:

Yeah I just chatted with my friend about this and told him about using breaching teams in CMBS. He's a royal engineer commando and told me that his unit had just finished a recent training where they rigged a building to blow when the enemy comes in to occupy it. 

It was a trick the Taliban taught us back in the day.