How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Jiggathebauce]

Not exactly the flower of Russias youth there in that video. 

If 1917 is any indication, there won't be a regime collapse unless the rank and file radicalizes enough to stop following orders and point guns at officers.

[Fernando]

11 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Not exactly the flower of Russias youth there in that video. 

If 1917 is any indication, there won't be a regime collapse unless the rank and file radicalizes enough to stop following orders and point guns at officers.

In 1917 there were political groups, especially Bolsheviks, radicalizing the troops and channeling discontent with the political purpose of ending the tsarist regime. I don't see that in the current Russian army. Even the communists seem to support Putin.

Nobody takes advantage of, unifies, leads and gives purpose to that discontent, so the discontent of the Russian cannon fodder remains simple discontent.

Edited March 24, 2023 by Fernando

[_Morpheus_]

BBC journalists visit the "Welyka Novoselka" (I hope i hear the name correctly) in Donezk region: 

 

Edited March 24, 2023 by _Morpheus_

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Not exactly the flower of Russias youth there in that video. 

If 1917 is any indication, there won't be a regime collapse unless the rank and file radicalizes enough to stop following orders and point guns at officers.

The scenario I have floating around in my head is the the Russian Army gets tired of dying and just pulls out of Ukraine without orders. It is an interesting question where the break in the chain of command is most likely. Were this to happen we get to the real decision point for the regime. Do they go so far as things like ordering airstrikes on their own troops, or do they have the sense to act like it was their idea and just try to frantically patch together some sort of negotiation with Ukraine to put a fig leaf on their effectively surrendering. When an entire army is made up of mobik quality troops with an utterly detached and distrusted command structure, things could get out of hand very quickly. Not certain by any means, but...

[Battlefront.com]

41 minutes ago, JonS said:

What a weirdo

I dunno.  The guy does have some moves...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/1200biz/russia_deserves_him/

Steve

[JonS]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I dunno.  The guy does have some moves...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/1200biz/russia_deserves_him/

Steve

"Sign in to confirm you're over 18"

Nope. FTN. And least of all for that weirdo.

Not even porn sites require signing in for age confirmation.

Uh, apparently. According to a friend

Edited March 24, 2023 by JonS

[Haiduk]

Video of K-2 battalion of 54th mech.brigade how Wagners assaulted small UKR position near Verkhniokamyans'ke (Lysychansk direction, between Soledar and Siversk). 8 UKR soldiers against 30 Wagners, which likely approached to position along dense tree-line and started assault, outflanking UKR position.  UKR infantry called mortar fire on themselves - shells hit in approx 20 m from our trench and several airburst explosions eliminated most of Wagner group (dead Russians are blured dynamcally on the video)

This is the same location, which we already could see on previous videos - with single tank attack and Wagners attempt of advance. For this time as it seen, UKR troop advanced along the tree-plant and seized T-crossing of it

Part 1. To be continued...

 

Edited March 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[Fernando]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The scenario I have floating around in my head is the the Russian Army gets tired of dying and just pulls out of Ukraine without orders. It is an interesting question where the break in the chain of command is most likely. Were this to happen we get to the real decision point for the regime. Do they go so far as things like ordering airstrikes on their own troops, or do they have the sense to act like it was their idea and just try to frantically patch together some sort of negotiation with Ukraine to put a fig leaf on their effectively surrendering. When an entire army is made up of mobik quality troops with an utterly detached and distrusted command structure, things could get out of hand very quickly. Not certain by any means, but...

I don't see Russian soldiers going home by themselves. Their morale can sink into an abyss, stop fighting and surrender, but for an army to come home it needs to be led. If it is not by their military commanders, it will be by revolutionary leaders and agents. Without those revolutionary leaders, the Russian soldiers will complain, die, and hopefully surrender, but I highly doubt they'll go home by themselves. At the moment it is clear there is no revolutionary movement against Putin in Russia.

What the Germans did, sending Lenin to Russia as if he were a virus, was an extraordinarily clever move even though we suffered the consequences for 70 years afterwards. The problem is that more than 100 years ago there was a powerful and very determined revolutionary movement with good, ruthless leaders in Russia but now there isn't one.

Edited March 24, 2023 by Fernando

[Battlefront.com]

More drone footage of Russian fortifications being hit by artillery.  Towards the end about a platoon, all in one place, abandons their positions and runs away.  Gotta wonder... what's the point of having fortifications if you run away as soon as a little bit of attention is focused on you?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/120n5fc/a_pile_of_tyres_in_a_field_its_the_best/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, JonS said:

"Sign in to confirm you're over 18"

Nope. FTN. And least of all for that weirdo.

Not even porn sites require signing in for age confirmation.

Uh, apparently. According to a friend

Your friend's knowledge aside, I dunno what happened on your end.  Link works fine.  Though honestly, once you see Segal dancing on ice, you can not UNsee it.  So a warning is at least warranted.  Here's but a sample:

Steve

[akd]

47 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said:

BBC journalists visit the "Welyka Novoselka" (I hope i hear the name correctly) in Donezk region

With 1st Tank Brigade at Velyka Novosilka, here with better sound and resolution:

 

[RockinHarry]

20 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Video of K-2 battalion of 54th mech.brigade how Wagners assaulted small UKR position near Verkhniokamyans'ke (Lysychansk direction, between Soledar and Siversk). 8 UKR soldiers against 30 Wagners, which likely approached to position along dense tree-line and started assault, outflanking UKR position.  UKR infantry called mortar fire on themselves - shells hit in approx 20 m from our trench and several airburst explosions eliminated most of Wagner group (dead Russians are blured dynamcally on the video)

This is the same location, which we already could see on previous videos - with single tank attack and Wagners attempt of advance. For this time as it seen, UKR troop advanced along the tree-plant and seized T-crossing of it

Part 1. To be continued...

 

saw that in social media earlier. Impressive and most effective defensive artillery (or mortar) fire I´ve seen in such a small area. Almost hunted the mofos all down singly.

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Fernando said:

I don't see Russian soldiers going home by themselves. Their morale can sink into an abyss, stop fighting and surrender, but for an army to come home it needs to be led. If it is not by their military commanders, it will be by revolutionary leaders and agents. Without those revolutionary leaders, the Russian soldiers will complain, die, and hopefully surrender, but I highly doubt they'll go home by themselves. At the moment it is clear there is no revolutionary movement against Putin in Russia.

What the Germans did, sending Lenin to Russia as if he were a virus, was an extraordinarily clever move even though we suffered the consequences for 70 years afterwards. The problem is that more than 100 years ago there was a powerful and very determined revolutionary movement with good, ruthless leaders in Russia but now there isn't one.

Sadly, this is exactly correct.  Early in the war there was a moment where the losses at the front and the shock at home COULD have caused Putin a lot of problems at home and at the front.  Unfortunately, civilians left the country instead of protesting.  Soldiers refused to fight and were allowed to go home.  Putin did not call for mobilization.  Oligarchs were murdered.  I think this defused the problem.

Since then Russian propaganda and authoritarian actions have pretty much ended resistance.  As Fernando says, unlike 1917 there is no political philosophy to motivate soldiers to do anything other than continue the war.  Where patriotism, boredom, and alpha male thinking doesn't work, money comes into play.

For Russia's forces to collapse they are going to have to be surrounded and killed in significant numbers all at once at a place where Russia doesn't have enough reserves to stop a massive, rapid, and deep exploitation.  So far neither Ukraine or Russia has managed to do this.  The only significant force lost at once was Ukraine's defense of Mariupol, but that's a different type of battle.

Steve

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Major Aleksey Chuprov, 36th motor-rifle brigade, 29th CAA, Eastern military district. Was killed on 3rd of Sep 2022

Lt.colonel FSB (in reserve) Andrey Smirnov. Enlisted to PMC Wagner, was killed 21st-22nd of March 2023 in Bakhmut

Not combat loss, but enough sensitive... Lt.colonel Denis Kirilov, medical service, chief of surgery department of central military hospital named afetr Burdenko (one of best military hospital in Russia). Died by unknown reason on duty in the hospital in Belgorod. 

Lt.colonel Viktor Nizhnik, 202nd SAM brigade (S-300V), Western military district. Was killed on 15th of Feb 2023. He was promoted to lt.colonel two weeks before. 

 

 

[Haiduk]

Interesting fact - despite Prigozhyn claims only PMC Wagner fights around Bakhmut (well, with smaaaaall support of VDV), indeed, judging of "Azov" footage Russins involved VDV in normal way. And here is other evedience of motor-rifle units presence - this Russian, serviceman (member of mortar crew) of 102nd motor-rifle regiment of 150th motor-rifle division was killed on 2nd of March 2023 in Bakhmut

 

 

Edited March 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

More drone footage of Russian fortifications being hit by artillery.  Towards the end about a platoon, all in one place, abandons their positions and runs away.  Gotta wonder... what's the point of having fortifications if you run away as soon as a little bit of attention is focused on you?

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/120n5fc/a_pile_of_tyres_in_a_field_its_the_best/

Steve

I want to see what happens when a whole lot of attention is focused on a unit like that, and a big piece of the Russian front line folds as surely as he Hungarians and Romanians did North and South of Stalingrad.

 

Edit: My most optimistic scenario for the Ukrainian counter offensive is for the the AFU hit the the land bridge in two places about sixty or eight klicks apart, and shove both breakthroughs deep enough that all the Russian forces in between have run for it. Yes it is optimistic, but a guy can hope.

Edited March 24, 2023 by dan/california

[sburke]

Whack

https://www.yahoo.com/news/special-operations-forces-destroy-expensive-153703526.html

[Offshoot]

9 minutes ago, sburke said:

Whack

https://www.yahoo.com/news/special-operations-forces-destroy-expensive-153703526.html

Video of it:

 

[billbindc]

 

Ukraine continues to be the most bipartisan issue in American politics.

[The_Capt]

Just now, Offshoot said:

Video of it:

 

So when I talk about stuff that is not going to be replaced.....

[The_Capt]

Just now, billbindc said:

 

Ukraine continues to be the most bipartisan issue in American politics.

The man is a saint in my country now.  Well most of it.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/u-s-president-joe-biden-says-he-likes-canadian-teams-except-the-leafs-1.6328028

[sburke]

28 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The man is a saint in my country now.  Well most of it.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/u-s-president-joe-biden-says-he-likes-canadian-teams-except-the-leafs-1.6328028

Did you catch Belarus and Russia are banned from world hockey?

https://nhl.nbcsports.com/2022/02/28/iihf-bans-russia-belarus-from-play-2023-world-juniors-to-be-moved/#:~:text=The International Ice Hockey Federation announced it has,was to be played in Novosibirsk and Omsk.

[FancyCat]

1917 had a preclude, 1905, caused by Russian humiliation from the Russo-Japanese War.

Tho comparisons are already ehhh, I would say 1905 is closer than 1917 now.

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Fernando said:

I don't see Russian soldiers going home by themselves. Their morale can sink into an abyss, stop fighting and surrender, but for an army to come home it needs to be led. If it is not by their military commanders, it will be by revolutionary leaders and agents. Without those revolutionary leaders, the Russian soldiers will complain, die, and hopefully surrender, but I highly doubt they'll go home by themselves. At the moment it is clear there is no revolutionary movement against Putin in Russia.

What the Germans did, sending Lenin to Russia as if he were a virus, was an extraordinarily clever move even though we suffered the consequences for 70 years afterwards. The problem is that more than 100 years ago there was a powerful and very determined revolutionary movement with good, ruthless leaders in Russia but now there isn't one.

 

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sadly, this is exactly correct.  Early in the war there was a moment where the losses at the front and the shock at home COULD have caused Putin a lot of problems at home and at the front.  Unfortunately, civilians left the country instead of protesting.  Soldiers refused to fight and were allowed to go home.  Putin did not call for mobilization.  Oligarchs were murdered.  I think this defused the problem.

Since then Russian propaganda and authoritarian actions have pretty much ended resistance.  As Fernando says, unlike 1917 there is no political philosophy to motivate soldiers to do anything other than continue the war.  Where patriotism, boredom, and alpha male thinking doesn't work, money comes into play.

For Russia's forces to collapse they are going to have to be surrounded and killed in significant numbers all at once at a place where Russia doesn't have enough reserves to stop a massive, rapid, and deep exploitation.  So far neither Ukraine or Russia has managed to do this.  The only significant force lost at once was Ukraine's defense of Mariupol, but that's a different type of battle.

Steve

The possible, and I would emphasize possible , not probable, thing that could trigger it now is the military equivalent of the bank run that brought down Silicon Valley bank. On a Monday SVB's trouble were buried deep inside the business section, if you could find anything about them at all outside of very specialized places on Twitter. By Thursday afternoon of the same week it was simply vaporized. Cell phones and social media allow panic to spread at an incomprehensible rate, and as near as I can tell most of the mobiks still have their phones. Russia might try to simply turn of all service in occupied Ukraine, but that might just prove to everybody there was something to panic about. There is a huge scope for Ukrainian Psy-ops in this space as well, promote five fake attacks as well as the two real ones and so on. Do it in depth in the social media the mobiks are actually using, with hacked accounts and all the bells and whistles.

Side note: Is there an equivalent of this board for banking geeks?

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

1917 had a preclude, 1905, caused by Russian humiliation from the Russo-Japanese War.

Tho comparisons are already ehhh, I would say 1905 is closer than 1917 now.

In 1905 the Czar had the Sense to cut his losses and make peace. Although the military parallels are tricky. The war with Japan was arguably an even worse military defeat, but it was also a great deal further from Moscow. There was not much question that the Czar could cut bait on his little Asian expedition and survive. Which is not to say he enjoyed the experience. And there was a a whole array of Revolutionary movements in 1905. The pressure had been building for the best part of fifty years. Lenin was sent to Siberia in 1897, and he was among the third or fourth generation of internal exiles, as the Czars tried to keep lid in the pot of modernity that was bubbling in the rest of Europe.

Quote

http://www.siberiaclass.org/siberia-yesterday-and-today/imprisonment-and-exile

from 1827 to 1846 there were 79,909 people sent to Siberia

On balance at the moment social media , and modern communication tools are working for the regime. There may be a tipping point out there somewhere where they suddenly cut the other way very sharply.