How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

The way I read this report is that there might be good reason for hope. But hope is not a plan and don't be surprised if we are all dissatisfied with the Spring offensive.

Since the Kharkiv offensive petered out and the Kherson one wound up a missed opportunity, I've downgraded my expectations for this year.

I will be quite pleased if Ukraine breaches the southern line and creates a decidedly unpleasant situation for the Russians.  If it can do that while not losing terrain anywhere else, and do it without excessive losses, I expect Ukraine will not be forced into negotiations.  If it makes no progress or OK progress with a lot of casualties, then negotiations might have to happen.  As I said a bunch of pages ago, if Ukraine feels it needs to freeze the conflict then it should.  Russia is in such a bad state I don't see it getting any better after a pause.  Ukraine, on the other hand, can benefit from a pause.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Some combat footage of the pro-Ukrainian Chechen Battalion "Sheikh Mansur".  It must really piss off the RU Nats to see Chechens armed with US weapons being transported by Australian? armored vehicles

Translation of the description:

On March 13, 2023, a car, a bus and an armored personnel carrier were burned on the road to Bakhmut. In retaliation for this, fighters of the Chechen battalion named after Sheikh Mansur were advanced to the zero position. As a result of the BSHM attack, 2 occupants were killed and 6 wounded (data obtained from radio intercepts during the battle). The outskirts of Bakhmut. Ukraine. 13.03.2023. Chechen battalion named after Sheikh Mansur. Chechen Battalion named Sheyh Mansur. International Chechen Battalion named after Sheikh Mansur.

 

[Simcoe]

I apologize if this has already been discussed but the more videos I see from Ukraine the more I wonder how much of a difference western tanks and IFV'S will make for the counter offensive. 

The videos I see are platoon up to companies of tanks and IFV'S advancing, observed by drones and getting shelled to bits or hitting mines.

You also see tanks driving up from the rear and blasting an enemy position for a few minutes and retreating. This is either drone observed or direct fire.

Let's say the Ukrainians aren't able to shoot down all the drones and destroy all the artillery. Does a Panther or Bradley really do these jobs better? Will they just shrug off mines and artillery?

What's everyone's opinion?

[chuckdyke]

Serve six months and you're free. Thought up by the grandmaster of disinformation.

 

[chuckdyke]

A Swedish guy explains Urban Combat. Future expansions should take some points from him IMO. Civilians with cell phones will record everything you do. They can influence the media on the homefront. Also the manpower required to take Urban Terrain the Russian just don't have the manpower to capture major cities. The Ukrainian strategy becomes clearer, cities is where they bleed the Russians. 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Good ol' Yookie ingenuity.  Flying Schu mine.  Cost per unit, £33.

 

...Of course this is the kind of kit I'm worried about China (quietly) supplying in bulk to the Russians. There's plenty Ivans who can figure this stuff out and the UA grunts are starting to report more and more effective drone bombings too.  So counters need to be developed, stat.

The catcher nets seem decently effective against the Lancets.

For basic infantry protection, I continue to believe that some kind of body covering kevlar cloak/groundsheet/foxhole cover could provide decent (though not perfect) protection against simple frag grenades and 'cigarette packet' sized charges like this. Forcing the enemy to drop mortar bomb sized or HEAT charges from larger, more complex (and hittable) drones.

...Hmm, actually is that some kind of kevlar gorget plate the RU journo is wearing on his neck? Never seen that one.

Edited March 17, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[JonS]

It looks like he's wearing an EOD suit, sans helmet

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine, on the other hand, can benefit from a pause.

If they can (which I agree they can on so many levels) then the Spring offensive might just be for "show" other than improving their lines prior to negotiations. The UA should not risk "OK progress with a lot of casualties". Find a sector to demonstrate a skillful integration of NATO combined arms weapons, training and tactics with their own. Produce a clean win. Rinse and repeat all summer when a situation presents itself. Take a look at he military pipeline and their society as a whole and decide if they can afford to fight continuously or pause. I would not be surprised if the history of the war show that the UA was at it's best killing Russian waves utilizing economy of force to keep those bastards in check. In a pause, the war would shift to a battle over military production, training and healing the wounds of a free Ukrainian society. Here the war can be won since Russia on it's own can't keep up. 

[Battlefront.com]

Some nice footage of the FSB building in Rostov:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/11sqnvw/local_media_reports_about_a_powerful_fire_in_the/

Annnnnnd... someone said "show me a picture of Ukrainian drones dropping dildos on Russians or it didn't happen".  Well, finally...

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/11srf70/no_comment/

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

PBS story on Haas Automation, makers of various CNC machines, is in violation of sanctions.  Their machines go straight to Russia's armaments industry.  They are based in California.  I hope they get nailed.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/american-company-accused-of-violating-sanctions-doing-business-with-russian-arms-industry

Interesting note is that the reporter is Simon Ostrovsky, which those of you who followed the 2014/2015 war will easily recognize him.  Legendary.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

23 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The UA should not risk "OK progress with a lot of casualties". Find a sector to demonstrate a skillful integration of NATO combined arms weapons, training and tactics with their own. Produce a clean win. Rinse and repeat all summer when a situation presents itself. 

I am reminded of Colin Powell's succinct quote, when asked what his plan was to eject the Iraqi army from Kuwait:

First we're going to cut it off. And then we're going to kill it.

So in the strategically vital (for both sides) Kinburn to Mariupol 'land bridge' corridor, it seems this should be doable, with precision long range artillery standing in place of USAF air power.  Interdict, immobilise, isolate and then reduce the cauldrons, via overwhelming and systematic application of explosive.

Among other things, this assumes the existence of adequately trained assault pioneer units. IMHO, the more ordinary infantry can be 'upskilled' into these roles (in addition to OJT of course), the better! And yes, I get that that doesn't happen overnight.

...Recalling the 1991 CNN footage of mass surrenders of disheveled Iraqis, it would also be useful for the Ukraine to engage in some intensive psyops aimed to induce bulk surrenders as the 'cauldron' intensifies. At a certain point, fear of certain death at the hands of the enemy overcomes fear of the 'sledgehammers', especially as the rear areas break down into chaos.

Edited March 17, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Simcoe said:

I apologize if this has already been discussed but the more videos I see from Ukraine the more I wonder how much of a difference western tanks and IFV'S will make for the counter offensive. 

The videos I see are platoon up to companies of tanks and IFV'S advancing, observed by drones and getting shelled to bits or hitting mines.

You also see tanks driving up from the rear and blasting an enemy position for a few minutes and retreating. This is either drone observed or direct fire.

Let's say the Ukrainians aren't able to shoot down all the drones and destroy all the artillery. Does a Panther or Bradley really do these jobs better? Will they just shrug off mines and artillery?

What's everyone's opinion?

Western vehicles are just as susceptible to destruction from artillery blasts as anything else already on the battlefield.  However, anybody inside is far more likely to survive than Soviet based stuff.  Lighter artillery or more distant detonations will be less likely to result in a mobility kill, but could still clean off things like sensors, RWS, etc.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Follow up to one of the "appeals" videos from a cannon fodder unit.  One of the wives is trying to find information on her husband who, after the video was made, probably got killed in a Human wave attack:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Reuters managed to interview 5 Wagnerite prisoners who managed to make it through their 6 month tour in Ukraine.  Though it seems all of them did so because they got wounded early on.  One guy was in combat for 4 days before getting wounded.

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/ukraine-crisis-russia-wagner/

Steve

[kevinkin]

33 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

So in the strategically vital (for both sides) Kinburn to Mariupol 'land bridge' corridor, it seems this should be doable, with precision long range artillery standing in place of USAF air power. 

Maybe that's not the sector. To obvious and, by Russian standards, well defended. Another sector would produce a politically important result with lower (much lower) losses. Test the Russian resolve and see if they fall apart. Test and see if the engineers can handle the terrain. If they don't fall apart in a lesser sector, then the land bridge offensive will be too costly. If precision munitions are key, then the US has to ensure there are plenty in place to do the job. I have not heard that much about partisans operation in the Russian rear. Perhaps a well executed strike to link up with those elements might produce a lot of high 5's the west can't ignore. 

[dan/california]

I love it when that happens! AFU this is the fourth or fifth one the Ukrainian's have gotten recently. I so want to see one go boom in a Russian base.

[dan/california]

Another view of what I am 99 % is the same strike.

Edit:posted the same one twice, sorry

Edited March 17, 2023 by dan/california
I can't edit this to save my life sorry for not doing it as link

[Battlefront.com]

And now some hard evidence that China is supplying some quantities of firearms, body armor, and drone parts directly to Russia:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/16/chinese-rifles-body-armor-russia-ukraine-00087398

Steve

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

And now some hard evidence that China is supplying some quantities of firearms, body armor, and drone parts directly to Russia:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/16/chinese-rifles-body-armor-russia-ukraine-00087398

Steve

Tip of the iceberg no doubt. 

[LongLeftFlank]

5 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Maybe that's not the sector. To obvious and, by Russian standards, well defended. Another sector would produce a politically important result with lower (much lower) losses. Test the Russian resolve and see if they fall apart. Test and see if the engineers can handle the terrain. If they don't fall apart in a lesser sector, then the land bridge offensive will be too costly. If precision munitions are key, then the US has to ensure there are plenty in place to do the job. I have not heard that much about partisans operation in the Russian rear. Perhaps a well executed strike to link up with those elements might produce a lot of high 5's the west can't ignore. 

The Ukes have showed a gift for the unexpected, but surprise isn't everything.*

1. In addition to continued Russian control keeping all of the lower Dnipr under permanent threat (ceasefire or no), it is also by far the hardest area for the Russians to supply, reinforce and fly air support missions to. 

2. It's also steppelands (albeit now under cultivation) and so terrain generally favours the side that can dominate ranged firefights (e.g. Vuhledar).  Increasingly, that seems to be Ukraine although there are some notable c0ckups.

3. The rear area is only 70 - 100kms deep before your back is to the Azov. There are relatively few ports and seaborne resupply is risky, plus the Russians need to offload cargo to trucks. Hint, their logistics suck with the possible exceptions of rail (no longer available to that area) and redeployments of combat units (the UA command has noted they're good at that, witness Kherson and actually north Luhansk).

4. Clearly the Russians are frantically digging in to try for a replay of Zitadelle 1943, to bog down the Ukie mech in defensive belt after defensive belt (in what was even more barren terrain).  But are such 1940s positional defenses (without years to refine them which the UA had after 2014) really that decisive in an era of plentiful and powerful precision weapons, available down to squad level? when these positions aren't at least somewhat masked by woodlands or settlements/cityscapes? They are hiding in plain sight:  see Brady Africk's Twiitter feed.

* I might even argue that psychologically knowing exactly what is about to happen and yet still being powerless to avert it is even worse than being surprised.  The Greek tragedians and Alfred Hitchcock well understood that effect.

Edited March 17, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Seminole]

18 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Good lord, here we go with WW3 again.  Well there is an argument to be made we are already in a global level conflict:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

Not sure how knocking down Reapers is going to make that situation any better for Russia, but hey it is a theory.  Or is it that time of the week to roll down the nuclear escalation rabbit hole?

If it isn't a real worry, then why are we on the sidelines again?

[Tenses]

Avdiivka is increasingly looking like Bakhmut in terms of situation and danger of encirclement. I know that it is a meat grinder for Russia but still the entire eastern front is looking grim right now. If these two cities will be encircled, new territory gains for Russia will take much less time and effort.

[chuckdyke]

If this happens the UN Security Council is beyond repair.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

16 minutes ago, Tenses said:

Avdiivka is increasingly looking like Bakhmut in terms of situation and danger of encirclement. I know that it is a meat grinder for Russia but still the entire eastern front is looking grim right now. If these two cities will be encircled, new territory gains for Russia will take much less time and effort.

In theory, sure, but it also depends how much 'un-ground' Ivan meat is left to reap those gains.

****

Nothing too militarily interesting in this BBC field report, but at this point the Ukrainian grunts are really starting to look like Vikings!

 

[LongLeftFlank]

On 3/15/2023 at 4:47 AM, Beleg85 said:

Sorry if video was posted here before, but may be worth to check it:

 

Nice frame by frame analysis and locational context of that trench knife fight. It shields Bakhmut's lifeline....