How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Jiggathebauce]

Is there a nonzero chance that Wagner gets disbanded by Russian MOD by force, and then they claim the Ukrainians defeated them in detail after the fact?

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Sojourner said:

There was an interesting report yesterday on the difficulty the US is facing updating the nuclear stockpile. It's not limited to sourcing parts and materials but also a  shortage of specialized craft and trade workers.

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/09/1162390573/the-push-to-rebuild-the-u-s-s-nuclear-stockpile

Similar to the article that I read a couple decades ago and still haven't been able to find again.  It could have been subtitled "Cold war ends due to lack of interest from technical people" because it came down to people interested in and good at technical work had close to zero interest in going to work in nuclear weapons complex.  And it's not like you can just take "nuclear weapons 101" in school and get a job there - they basically take people with a lot of related interests and backgrounds and get them into doing relevant parts of the design/development/maintenance process, and it can take many years to get people up to speed.

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Not true, they had plenty of choice.

Mmmm... In response on policy of "culture supression", oppressions and colonization they had to offer more "round tables" to find "compromisses and concessions"? Or maybe increase presentation of Ukrainian community in councils? It's hard, when all deputies turn out under home arrest %) 

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You think you were the first country in the world to fight for its existence? There were (and are) many nations struggling/fighting for its  independence that did not commit genocide and ethnic cleansing on massive scale- and OUN/UPA complex did.

Hm... Show me a war for independence or anti-colonial war, which wasn't accompanied with ethnic cleaning of different scales, eliminating of collaborationists and reprerssing toward nation-occupant or nation-colonizer? Than more tough the oppression compress a spring, than more painful this spring hit, when it will be realized. Situation of Ukrainans in Poland was even much worse than in USSR (before collectivisation), where they had so-called "Red renessaince", when in Poland considered as "bydlo" and people of second sort.

Polish and Ukrainian confrontation of 1918-1947 most close to confrontation of Britain and Ireland, which also accompnied with uprisings, terror, murdering of opponents etc. 

And about scales.... How much civilians "is allowed" to murder in order to this wasn't consider as ethnic cleaning. For example Polish January uprising of 1863-64 also accompanied with murdering of civilians, who didn't want live under power of Poland. According to different information from 800 to 2000 civilians became a victims of "stiletters" or "hangers" on background of 4500 of military losses from Russian side. So, this can be considered as "ethnic cleaning"?

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What for example did to "brave Ukrainians patriots" some Armenian girls from Kuty village that were collectivelly raped?

 Okaaay. So, AK/Peoples Battalions, which, I think, honorized in Poland as brave fighters for freedom and independence like UPA in Ukriane didn't burn any one village, didn't kill any one civilian and  didn't rape any one girl? Neither in Ukraine, nor in western Belarus, nor in Lithuania?

The same Sagryn' - 500-800-even 1300 murdered Ukrainains  (according to different sources). Or Pavlokoma, where among 365 victims were murdered priest and all girls over 7 and all boys over 5. So, about 40 000 of murdered Poles (though AK data for 1944 is 15000 and Soviet data - 20000) this is henocide and ethnic cleaning, but 10-15 000 of murdered Ukrainans is just nothing and just "actions of revenges", of course. So, UPA are murderes, but AK are knights in white, because they killed less of enemies. I understood correct?  It doesn't happen. There was bipartisan ethnic conflict, not one-side henocide. Both sides considered this terrtitory in post-war future as own and tried to strenghth iyself there and simultainously to eliminate potential supporting base for armed units of enemy. Conflict, where old hystorical resentments realized together, and level of violence was so high, that settlers or self-defense unit of one village could attack own neighbours with knives and axes, not having enough firearms - from this likely grow a mythes about UPA with axes, but this could be usual peasants, who came to settle old scores with Polish colonists. 

 

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What is memic about a guys who murdered in most horrific, cruel way thousands of innocents? 

Bandera since July 1941 was jailed by Germans. In what way he murdered all this people? Of course, he was jailed in VIP terms (though three his brothers were executed by Germans in other death camps during 1942), had Red Cross aid and had opportunity to send letters. But even G.Motyka, who in own researches takes sometime moderate position unlike completely biased  "Viyatrovich"-type hystorians like Semashko, has opinion that order of anti-Polish actions gave not Bandera personally, but somebody of Volynian OUN group (Kliachkiskyi or Lytvynchuk) against decision of OUN Directorate about prematurity of armed uprising  (Bandera also was against of uprising and even he would be "for" like a Supreme Leader,  OUN Directorate made decisions by voting of it members, not by his personal will)

 

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Which politician specifically say "Polish Lviv"?

Historian and senator of PiS Jan Zharyn in 2015:   https://kresy.pl/wydarzenia/panstwo-polskie-odcina-sie-od-polskiego-lwowa-i-prawdy-o-rzezi-wolynskiej-ukrainski-portal/

Of course one senator is just one senator, but he is popular (?) hystorian, so has influence on public opinion. And his opinion is very match with your. Even our right-spectre leadrs didn't allow to themeselve to say something like this. This gentlemen also allows to himself to made a statement that Ukraine never will be European country if it glorifies OUN/UPA and with aplomb talks how "Poland brings to Ukraine light of Polish culture and that Ukriane incapable to self-awareness without help of Poland, and must recognize own guilt for Volyn' for it. He also told Ukraine doesn't want to belong to "Rome civilisation", behavinhg as barbar with hystorical memory. 

This is dangerous talks. One of reason of Russian invasion was that Ukraine confesses "wrong history". I suppose, you completely support Russia in part of "denazification", because narartives of some Polish political and historian circles the same as in Soviet Union and Russia. If somebody wants to sit on the place of "senior brother" instead Russia to point us which history is right and which is not, and which heroes we have to glorify and which we do not, that this somebody will go following Russian military ship. 

No armies in the world exist, who weared in white coats. US then should cancel of own army and president  Truenam as "civilian murderers" for atomic bombardments and napalm in Vietnam. 

Ukraine officially recognized Volyn' tragedy and president Poroshenko knelt down in front of monument of victims. But nobody will force us to refuse from our historycal persons, without struggle and sacrifice of which, modern independent Ukraine and our resistance spirit would be impossible - despite all their contraversal doings. 

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Btw. did Azov movement already prepared their crusade to "liberate" Ukrainian lands up to Caucasus like they announced in their famous "burning Viking longship" happening? 

Hah, it is really cool to compare words of "Ukrainian nationalist prayer", wrote by blood on the wall of Polish prison in 30th with real talks of Polish official - not last person, who forms public opinion.

I would be want that in one day we will repeat that what did former enemies - when in 1945-46 UPA and part of AK-WiN ("Freedom and Independence") united against common enemy - communist powers of USSR and Poland, stepping over blood hostility. If those, who were shooting one in other could shake a hands, then what interfere to us just adopt history of each side and go forward?

Edited March 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

MiG-17 is gone. Russian artillery has destroyed monument. One of symblos of Bakhmut defense. Well, I suppose there will be no problem to find other one

 

[Yet]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Looks like you and LLF are both misunderstanding what I'm talking about.  I'm talking explicitly about the defense industry's needs.  That is "easy" by comparison to trying to retool the entire economy.  And as I mentioned, and you did as well, there's a massive financial disincentive to try and ween the entire economy off of China, which means either governments mandate it happen or isn't going to happen proactively.  So this is not a discussion about cutting China out of industrial production generally, just where it matters.

And personally, I am fine with half measures.  Cutting out China by partnering with a friendly democracy is at least a better short term solution.  Taiwan, though, is problematic as in the event of a war with China that source becomes very insecure quickly.

There's three types of chip based technology that is making a massive difference in this war:

1.  chips used for communications equipment (everything from a hand radio to satellite coms)

2.  chips used for delivery systems (drones in particular)

3.  chips used for PGMs (HIMARs, Excalibur, HARM, Javelin, etc.)

If you took these three types of equipment away from Ukraine, this would be a partisan war on a grand scale.

Steve

 

all these things China can make with the current machines they have, the ones that ASML(Netherlands chip machine fabricator) can still sell to China, and the chips already on the market (iphones, washingmachines etc). With the ban on the new generation machines (which by the way arent even fully up to speed yet) they are banning China to control themselves the production of the next generation chips that have more power, and are smaller (for next generation products) - Im not an expert on what chips are needed for what product but i am thinking insect-drones, info-contactlenses, implants and other james bond/scifi stuff that we arent so far away from with current tech and medical possibilities.

Because China sees this coming they will find ways around, i assume they will take measures and:

- play the same game where they have the edge, (forbid us ...) The game we played with RU (sanctions) is impossible with China.

- try to themselves build up knowledge and build an industry (very hard and will take many many years and extreme spying),

- make sure they keep fabricating consumer goods which need the most high-end chips so they always have a big stack of them, no matter if they can print them themselves.

[Beleg85]

@Haiduk ok rather interesting and balanced response, however it missess several crucial points- chiefly timing of events and "who drew knives first" and where + motivation. Yup, Motyka is relatively ok, and Siemashko is indeed over the top, especially with number of victims (I could even tell you why from fellow historian who work with her- she get PTSD reading primary sources and doing interviews in middle of 90-ties, after which she became religious and anti-Ukraninian; on the other side, she collected impressive source base). There is also new generation of historians who view things in other light.

I am in delegation now, so PM you tomorrow evening not to tire other guys on this board with our historical nitty-gritty discussions (unless they will wish it ofc.).

 

Edited March 10, 2023 by Beleg85

[sburke]

14 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Sadly, absent an existential WW3 level Clear and Present Danger, resulting in broad societal mobilisation -- and that would take some time, assuming no nuclear fireballs -- I cannot share your optimism about a heavy manufacturing rejuvenation in the US (or Canada), not at the scale we're discussing here. Alas, Russia is not the only one whose social mobilisation capability has withered.

Sorry to be a downer.

[Haiduk]

Death ray vs. BMP-1

 

[Peregrine]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The more difficult problem to work around is the reliance on rare Earth minerals that are extremely vulnerable to supply chain disruption.  Especially because Russia has so much of it under their direct control.

Rare earth elements are not actually that rare but you basically can't find a mother lode of them as they are very spread out and not found in concentrated seams. The mining also produces a lot of toxic by products. This is why China dominates is because they don't have proper environment laws and creating toxic moonscapes isn't as frowned upon. If they had similar standards to the rest of the world they would not have their current dominance. I do not know how long it would take to go from not mining a significant amount to producing required quantities if unfriendliness stop supply.

[Haiduk]

26 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I am in delegation now, so PM you tomorrow evening not to tire other guys on this board with our historical nitty-gritty discussions (unless they will wish it ofc.).

 

I would be stop this discussion, because each will stay with own opinion. Just wanted to reflect briefly UKR point of view. Many years in historical re-enactment accustomed me to be over only one side vision in order understand better what's happened and why. And despite AK in some part of our history were our enemies and caused death to many civilians, I with great pleasure have seen exellent series "Time of Honor"  and "City-44". By the way I have some part of Polish blood in me. Like and Russian and Ukrainain %)

Edited March 10, 2023 by Haiduk

[chrisl]

23 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

Rare earth elements are not actually that rare but you basically can't find a mother lode of them as they are very spread out and not found in concentrated seams. The mining also produces a lot of toxic by products. This is why China dominates is because they don't have proper environment laws and creating toxic moonscapes isn't as frowned upon. If they had similar standards to the rest of the world they would not have their current dominance. I do not know how long it would take to go from not mining a significant amount to producing required quantities if unfriendliness stop supply.

There are known and likely concentrations in the US but they are undeveloped due to environmental concerns.  It would take some time and be destructive of a lot of things to exploit them.

Edit to add link: https://www.voanews.com/amp/usa_california-mine-becomes-key-part-push-revive-us-rare-earths-processing/6200183.html

Edited March 10, 2023 by chrisl

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

Rare earth elements are not actually that rare but you basically can't find a mother lode of them as they are very spread out and not found in concentrated seams. The mining also produces a lot of toxic by products. This is why China dominates is because they don't have proper environment laws and creating toxic moonscapes isn't as frowned upon. If they had similar standards to the rest of the world they would not have their current dominance. I do not know how long it would take to go from not mining a significant amount to producing required quantities if unfriendliness stop supply.

Yes, in the discussion about rare earth elements it is more about practicality and cost than existence.  We have a lithium deposit near me that was recently discovered.  It is thought to be one of the richest and highest quality deposits in the US, maybe even in the world.  Buuuuuuuut... we also have some of the strictest anti-mining laws in the United States, making it nearly impossible for it to be exploited.  It is estimated to be worth about $1.5 billion, so I think we all know that it will eventually get mined

Steve

[Vacillator]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

We have a lithium deposit near me ... estimated to be worth about $1.5 billion

I hope that's on your land Steve .

[sburke]

12 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

I hope that's on your land Steve .

combat mission:Whatever you can dream up

[chris talpas]

18 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

I hope that's on your land Steve .

But does he own the mineral rights?  

[Beleg85]

38 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I would be stop this discussion, because each will stay with own opinion.

Ok, so we will stop here, despite a lot of things I'd like to argue/correct in recent post, like comparing Home Army to Oun/UPA, whish is like apples and oranges, starting even from purely organizational standpoint (it was relatively apolitical umbrella resistance movement by different political sides, not military arm of nationalistic political party with openly genocidal program). It is worth to note however that there will always be some occassion to learn new things if one engages in good discussion (for that matter, you provided details about Bandera family I was not aware of before).

I would just wish Ukrainians would be more aware of their non-glorious ideologies and events of the past and finally give access to families who want to find bones of their relatives, build some proper educational instution around and teach schoolkids about what happens when ethnonationalism goes too far. This is not "denazification", but grasping with complex historical reality. And it is hard even for most open and self-aware societies, as our human collective psyche rejects guilt like water rejects oil. Last Zhelensky acts of access to several mass murder sites was move in right direction, but still far too few and too late for families of so many murdered. On the other hand there is a war going on, so naturally it's odd time for historical discussions.

38 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Many years in historical re-enactment accustomed me to be over only one side vision in order understand better what's happened and why. And despite AK in some part of our history were our enemies and caused death to many civilians, I with great pleasure have seen exellent series "Time of Honor"  and "City-44". By the way I have some part of Polish blood in me. Like and Russian and Ukrainain %)

Was also several years hanging around reconstruction groups, but ancient ones (still do some educational projects for them), so there a non-zero chance we met somewhere if you ever was in Poland.

And come on, Time of Honour was terrible. I still try to figure out why we cannot do in this country proper historical movies like Czechs, Norwegians and others do.

Edited March 10, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

I hope that's on your land Steve .

If it was I would immediately give up all my claims of being an environmentalist and, if I successfully got the laws changed, bid you folks a fond farewell.  I pride myself on being left of center on so many environmental and social issues, but every man has his price.  For me?  $1.5 billion seems to be about right to sell out my beliefs

Steve

[Vacillator]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If it was I would immediately give up all my claims of being an environmentalist and, if I successfully got the laws changed, bid you folks a fond farewell.  I pride myself on being left of center on so many environmental and social issues, but every man has his price.  For me?  $1.5 billion seems to be about right to sell out my beliefs

And I would not disagree.

[sburke]

Mass Backstabbing Spree Over Putin’s War Sweeps Russia (yahoo.com)

[chrisl]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If it was I would immediately give up all my claims of being an environmentalist and, if I successfully got the laws changed, bid you folks a fond farewell.  I pride myself on being left of center on so many environmental and social issues, but every man has his price.  For me?  $1.5 billion seems to be about right to sell out my beliefs

Steve

I think you can make more money by just updating CM:BS to be the front end for an Ender’s Game style autonomous army.

[Jiggathebauce]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If it was I would immediately give up all my claims of being an environmentalist and, if I successfully got the laws changed, bid you folks a fond farewell.  I pride myself on being left of center on so many environmental and social issues, but every man has his price.  For me?  $1.5 billion seems to be about right to sell out my beliefs

Steve

You're not gonna use some of those billions to give us CM with unreal 5 level graphics and a full sized AAA dev team? Womp womp

Edited March 10, 2023 by Jiggathebauce

[cesmonkey]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Latest Kofman podcast. Leaving aside issues with credibility of his analysis, they finally go into specifics of Ukrainian force generation, assessing it at two batalions a month of Western-trained troops (not sure if they can be viewed in the same category as soldiers lost at Bakhmut, though). Still barely started to listen, if somebody has more excerpts valid for topics we touched before on this board (pro/against) feel free to enumerate it there.

 

Paraphrasing a lot ... they talked about if and when Ukraine will be prepared to conduct a successful offensive.  Kofman's take was that the later the better as he doesn't feel that Ukraine has enough ammunition stocks at the moment and he views Ukraine as an artillery-based army that needs lots of artillery to be successful. Also, the doesn't think Ukraine has enough well-trained battalions to conduct an offensive yet. Unfortunately, adequate supplies of artillery munitions from the West won't become available until 2025 when the expanded production capacity comes online.

[paxromana]

2 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Paraphrasing a lot ... they talked about if and when Ukraine will be prepared to conduct a successful offensive.  Kofman's take was that the later the better as he doesn't feel that Ukraine has enough ammunition stocks at the moment and he views Ukraine as an artillery-based army that needs lots of artillery to be successful. Also, the doesn't think Ukraine has enough well-trained battalions to conduct an offensive yet. Unfortunately, adequate supplies of artillery munitions from the West won't become available until 2025 when the expanded production capacity comes online.

So how does he explain the Kharkhiv and Kherson successes ... not a lot of artillery heavy ops overall in either and not a lot of 'well trained' (I assume be means western trained) Battalions in either.

Or is it more of his displayed penchant for wishful thinking and overestimation of Russian prowess?

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Yet said:

all these things China can make with the current machines they have, the ones that ASML(Netherlands chip machine fabricator) can still sell to China, and the chips already on the market (iphones, washingmachines etc). With the ban on the new generation machines (which by the way arent even fully up to speed yet) they are banning China to control themselves the production of the next generation chips that have more power, and are smaller (for next generation products) - Im not an expert on what chips are needed for what product but i am thinking insect-drones, info-contactlenses, implants and other james bond/scifi stuff that we arent so far away from with current tech and medical possibilities.

Because China sees this coming they will find ways around, i assume they will take measures and:

- play the same game where they have the edge, (forbid us ...) The game we played with RU (sanctions) is impossible with China.

- try to themselves build up knowledge and build an industry (very hard and will take many many years and extreme spying),

- make sure they keep fabricating consumer goods which need the most high-end chips so they always have a big stack of them, no matter if they can print them themselves.

China has been pouring resources into this sector for a very long time with very limited success and as they are cut off catching up will be that much harder going forward. 

[Peregrine]

Lithium mining includes the separation of the valuable resources from the uneconomic remains of the core, known as gangue. After this process, some materials referred to as tailings remain. Some of the most common mining wastes are sulfuric acid discharge and the radioactive uranium byproduct.

This is quick quote from "Lithium Mining" google. This is getting off-topic and much more West versus China than Russian (because they have done such a spectacular job of making themselves irrelevant).

I think the answers are pretty obvious that what western companies can do with radioactive toxic sludge and what Chinese miners can do. This applies to a lesser extent to manufacturing as well. 

You could say things are done in China because it is "cheaper" but a more apt description is when it comes to mining/manufacturing they can do it in a much more exploitive manner without short term repercussions and the longer term ones are being can kicked down the road.

China might show the West one day this thinking is wrong but yet another leader for life attitude says to me they are going to make the same mess of themselves as all the others do.

Edited March 10, 2023 by Peregrine