How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Damn forgot the urban angle.  So Kofman and those guys are taking the position that the RA who:

- Have been seen using human wave attacks with poorly trained and equipped troops

- Lacking artillery support, which has been noted as burning out and faltering by Russian troops.

- Combined arms integration

- Lacking ISR (or at least any notable improvements)

- Have been essentially doing frontals into an urban defence against a prepared defender who has owned the terrain for months

And pulled off a 1:1 attrition ratio....?....!

Ok, well first off they are going to have to prove that beyond "we went to Bakhmut".  And if it is true something very odd is happening, which we definitely want to keep an eye on.

 

The 1:1 thing just doesn't hold up as an average.  Even if we take the most conservative estimate of 40,000 Russian Zek casualties (meaning, Wagner, Russian, and DLPR forces suffered 0.0% casualties since September), this would mean that Ukraine lost about 20% of its total ground forces at Bakhmut.

I mean c'mon... why are we even having this discussion?

Now, if someone wants to say that on the day that Kofman and Lee were on the ground that the UA had a bad day and Russia had a good one, making it a 1:1 exchange that day... OK, I'll happily go along with that.  But if that's the case, why is anybody talking about it?  It's statistically insignificant, therefore as a means of measurement pointless.

Steve

[The_Capt]

Just now, Battlefront.com said:

The 1:1 thing just doesn't hold up as an average.  Even if we take the most conservative estimate of 40,000 Russian Zek casualties (meaning, Wagner, Russian, and DLPR forces suffered 0.0% casualties since September), this would mean that Ukraine lost about 20% of its total ground forces at Bakhmut.

I mean c'mon... why are we even having this discussion?

Now, if someone wants to say that on the day that Kofman and Lee were on the ground that the UA had a bad day and Russia had a good one, making it a 1:1 exchange that day... OK, I'll happily go along with that.  But if that's the case, why is anybody talking about it?  It's statistically insignificant, therefore as a means of measurement pointless.

Steve

Having just read into this Nordstream thing, I kind of have the same question.  A lot of moving parts here that pretty much point to a state sponsored job.  If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck and blows up 8 meter stretches of concrete encased pipe at 300 feet ocean depth, in four separate locations while other ships with transponders off cover for you...like a duck.  Then is was a bloody MSO job.

I assume the hubbub is which state did it?

[Butschi]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The estimate is 1000 pounds of explosives.  I wonder how a land locked country at war and thousands of KMs away from the pipeline managed to get all those explosives and personnel into position without anybody intercepting it?  Which is to say that if Ukraine was behind this, they had the help of someone that has Baltic coastline, access to explosives, and no fear of being intercepted.  That puts Germany in the mix more than it does Ukraine.

Steve

I did say Germany has a motive. On the other hand why shouldn't Ukraine have help from, say, Estonia or Poland? (Just to add some more candidates )

[Butschi]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I assume the hubbub is which state did it?

It's like one of those Agatha Christie stories. A room full of people where everyone has a motive.

EDIT: For the uninitiated among us: MSO? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MSO

Edited March 7, 2023 by Butschi

[sburke]

It was the darn Swiss.  They are pissed that Toblerone is moving to Slovakia.

Once again we are down the rabbit hole because someone said something with no actual factual data. weeeeeee!

[chrisl]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Having just read into this Nordstream thing, I kind of have the same question.  A lot of moving parts here that pretty much point to a state sponsored job.  If it walks like a duck, talks like a duck and blows up 8 meter stretches of concrete encased pipe at 300 feet ocean depth, in four separate locations while other ships with transponders off cover for you...like a duck.  Then is was a bloody MSO job.

I assume the hubbub is which state did it?

When you put it that way, it sounds a little like the Orient Express murder.  Everybody blew a piece of the pipeline.

[danfrodo]

Pipeline: in the absense of any actual new information.... maybe we could stop about the pipeline, as SBurke hinted at.

Meanwhile, it seems the illuminati of this forum are of the opinion that UKR is working Bakhmut as a killing ground for russians with an economy of force.  That's what I optimistically think also.  But as another of the illuminati mentioned, we need to be patient -- it's like watching mud dry.....

Speaking of which, here's some more confirmation bias, along w nice bit about a UKR medic & released POW who will be an honored guest at white house.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/7/2156736/-Ukraine-update-Russia-s-big-winter-offensive-has-managed-zilch-gains

 

[Butschi]

17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Pipeline: in the absense of any actual new information.... maybe we could stop about the pipeline, as SBurke hinted at.

Or maybe you guys could stop gatekeeping and telling people what may be discussed and what may not? Sorry, I don't mean to be (overly) snarky but this is an important topic and fresh new findings elevate it a little above just "absense of actual new information". EDIT: And what's more important, very prominent reporting, not just some wierd aging journalist.

Also, currently we are discussion mostly about rumors, anyway, and when I asked that we should discuss less about rumors because this is the internet and there are rumors about everything, I was lectured about what a rumor is and generally called unwise, so don't look to me for support here.

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Butschi

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Butschi said:

Or maybe you guys could stop gatekeeping and telling people what may be discussed and what may not? Sorry, I don't mean to be (overly) snarky but this is an important topic and fresh new findings elevate it a little above just "absense of actual new information".

Also, currently we are discussion mostly about rumors, anyway, and when I asked that we should discuss less about rumors because this is the internet and there are rumors about everything, I was lectured about what a rumor is and generally called unwise, so don't look to me for support here.

 

would you confirm what the fresh new findings were as I didn't see any, just a lot of hypothetical talking by "sources".

 

[Butschi]

16 minutes ago, sburke said:

would you confirm what the fresh new findings were as I didn't see any, just a lot of hypothetical talking by "sources".

 

It was not just the (indeed rather vague talking about "US officials" and sources) NYT report. What I referred to (sorry, that got a bit mixed up, I guess), was what was reported by German news media (joint research by "ARD-Hauptstadtstudio", "Kontraste", "SWR" and "Zeit") that was a bit more substantial:

https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2023-03/nordstream-2-ukraine-anschlag

EDIT: removed the translation as it is probably not legal to copy the whole article here. I suggest to translate it via

https://www.deepl.com/de/translator

 

 

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by Butschi

[danfrodo]

OK Butschi, I stand corrected.  There is new information as per your post above. I was unaware and therefore my statement was simply wrong that there was nothing new.

[Butschi]

Just now, danfrodo said:

OK Butschi, I stand corrected.  There is new information as per your post above. I was unaware and therefore my statement was simply wrong that there was nothing new.

No problem, my mistake getting things mixed up.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Now, if someone wants to say that on the day that Kofman and Lee were on the ground that the UA had a bad day and Russia had a good one, making it a 1:1 exchange that day... OK, I'll happily go along with that.  But if that's the case, why is anybody talking about it?  It's statistically insignificant, therefore as a means of measurement pointless.

The source was actually Muzyka, not Kofman (plus some other Polish researchers) but that is not material. The importance of this is data point is the losses going forward. If this 1:1 or similar represents the new reality after the fighting switched to urban combat in Bachmut proper with UKR and RUS shooting at each other from neighbouring buildings and basically having no cover advantage either way, then the question arises whether it is a mistake to stay in Bakhmut (and additionally, risk being cut off) vs the alternative of withdrawing to the new postition and making RUS to come over open terrain to the new trench lines. The decision to stay as announced by Zelenski has been controversial. 

[Peregrine]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

The article seems to flunk the the "extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" test. 

Extraordinary claims only require an extraordinary amount of yelling nowadays.

[dan/california]

 

14 minutes ago, Butschi said:

It was not just the (indeed rather vague talking about "US officials" and sources) NYT report. What I referred to (sorry, that got a bit mixed up, I guess), was what was reported by German news media (joint research by "ARD-Hauptstadtstudio", "Kontraste", "SWR" and "Zeit") that was a bit more substantial:

"The German investigative authorities have apparently made a breakthrough in solving the attack on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. According to a joint investigation by ARD's capital city studio, the ARD political magazine Kontraste, SWR and DIE ZEIT, it has been possible to reconstruct to a large extent how and when the explosives attack was prepared. According to this, traces lead in the direction of Ukraine. However, investigators have not yet found any evidence of who ordered the destruction. On the night of September 26, 2022, three of the four strings of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines were destroyed by explosions on the bottom of the Baltic Sea.

Specifically, according to information from ARD-Hauptstadtstudio, Kontraste, SWR and ZEIT, investigators have succeeded in identifying the boat that was presumably used for the secret operation. It is said to be a yacht rented from a company based in Poland, apparently owned by two Ukrainians. The clandestine operation at sea is said to have been carried out by a team of six people, according to the investigation. It is said to have involved five men and one woman. According to the report, the group consisted of a captain, two divers, two diving assistants and a female doctor, who are said to have transported the explosives to the crime scenes and placed them there. The nationality of the perpetrators is apparently unclear. The assassins used professionally forged passports, which are said to have been used, among other things, to rent the boat.

According to the investigation, the commando set sail from Rostock on September 6, 2022. The equipment for the clandestine operation was previously transported to the port in a van, it is said. In the further course, the investigators succeeded in locating the boat the following day again in Wieck (Darß) and later at the Danish island Christiansø, northeast of Bornholm, according to the research. The yacht was subsequently returned to the owner in uncleaned condition. On the table in the cabin, the investigators were able to detect traces of explosives, according to the research. According to information from ARD-Hauptstadtstudio, Kontraste, SWR and ZEIT, a Western intelligence service is said to have sent a tip to European partner services as early as in the fall, i.e. shortly after the destruction, according to which a Ukrainian commando was responsible for the destruction. Thereafter, there are said to have been further intelligence indications suggesting that a pro-Ukrainian group could be responsible.

For their research, ARD's Hauptstadtstudio, Kontraste, SWR and ZEIT spoke with sources in several countries. Security agencies in Germany, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands and the United States were involved in the investigation into the destruction of the pipelines. In Germany, the investigation is being led by the Federal Prosecutor General, who has commissioned both the Federal Criminal Police Office and the Federal Police. Even though traces lead to Ukraine, investigators have not yet succeeded in finding out who commissioned the suspected group of perpetrators. In international security circles, it is not ruled out that this could also be a false-flag operation. This means that traces could also have been deliberately laid that point to Ukraine as the perpetrator. However, investigators have apparently found no evidence to corroborate such a scenario.

The Ukrainian government could not initially be reached for comment. The federal prosecutor general also declined to comment. A German government spokesman referred to ongoing investigations by the Federal Prosecutor General and authorities in Sweden and Denmark. Just "a few days ago," Sweden, Denmark and Germany "informed the United Nations Security Council that the investigations are ongoing and that there are no results yet," the government spokesman said.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mikhail Podolyak told ARD-Hauptstadtstudio, Kontraste, SWR and ZEIT in a statement that Ukraine "of course had nothing to do with the attacks on Nord Stream-2." There was "no confirmation that Ukrainian officials or military took part in this operation or that people were sent to act on their behalf." It is conceivable that Russia was behind it, he said. "There are many more motives and many more possible uses in this scenario," Podolyak said."

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

That is definitely more information. So just to ask a couple of obvious questions, are the people the yach was rented from considered co-conspirators? Their identity is not all that relevant otherwise. So we think every body on the boat gave fake passport, any clue who they actually are? Absent that info we still don't seem to have enough to argue about. I mean we will argue anyway, but...

 

Just working backwards from the  "who benefits?" test it sort of screams false flag to me until proven otherwise. Haiduk posted something today about the SBU still actively cleaning up the dregs of FSB agents in various parts of the Ukrainian government. That might be quite relevant. Indeed the guy Haiduk posted about today was a fairly senior person in the Ukrainian Navy or Marines, and now I am REALLY curious about what he has been up to?

Still at extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof, at least for me.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 8, 2023 by dan/california

[Peregrine]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Imagine trying to design a new aircraft.  You know all the physics concepts of what makes a successful design, but you don't know any of the math or how to evaluate one design over another.  The only way to know if it flies or not is to build it, launch, and hope for the best.

Cheap shot. Wind tunnel.

[sburke]

well right away the whole thing is fishy.

1 The perpetrators used fake passports, they have no idea who they were

Quote

 The nationality of the perpetrators is apparently unclear. The Assassins used professionally forged passports, which, among other things, were used for the rental of the boat is said to have been used.

It is supposed to be a yacht hired by a company established in Poland which: apparently belonged to two Ukrainians.

2. correction The boat was rented by a company supposedly owned by  Ukrainians, however from the article there is no suggestion of their involvement or even if the registration of that company is authentic

I am a little confused about who rented it.  The company or the individuals?  They also do not mention the nationality on the fake passports.

Quote

The yacht was then given to the owner. has been returned in an uncleaned condition. On the table in the cabin according to the research, the investigators have proven traces of explosives can.

I can't see anything in the article that supports the contention this was a UKR action or even Ukr nationals.  If anything, it looks like an intentional move to point the finger at Ukr nationals simply because they rented a boat from them.  Smells really fishy to me and the ONLY folks who gain from pointing the finger at Ukraine are.... Russia.

Then it follows with

Quote

 

Afterwards there should have been further intelligence information that indicated that a pro-Ukrainian group could be responsible.

Investigators have so far failed to find out who was the alleged group of perpetrators. In international security circles, there is no ruled out that it could also be a false flag operation. This means that traces could also have been deliberately laid that pointed to the Ukraine as the cause. However, the investigators have apparently no evidence found to support such a scenario.

 

So the only real news is they think they know the boat used and the number of perpetrators and their make up.  Other than that... nothing.  There isn't even anything suggesting the company renting it is a suspect.  Weirdly they also list everyone's occupation/role but based on what, the previously mentioned fake identification?

Edited March 8, 2023 by sburke

[sburke]

what is really weird to me is the parallels to an incident in Larry Bond's book "Cauldron".   Agents blow up an LNG tanker in Polish waters.  Only those dudes were French.  

Edited March 8, 2023 by sburke

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Um, would you please (re-)read what I wrote? It wasn't my opinion about what happened or what Germany should do about it but about what was reported and what I think will happen.

There was a report in one of Germany's most reputable news broadcasts that did not say that it was done by "a rogue group of Ukrainians and Russians". It said that investigators believe it was a group of Ukrainins. They said there is no evidence that the Ukrainian government involved or even ordered it but they also didn't rule it out. That will at least leave the shadow of doubt.

Germany is much less committed than you may think. The latest "pro-peace", "start negociations now!", "no more weapons for Ukraine" protests were all over the media during the last days. I don't think this will immediately stop support for Ukraine, because benefit of the doubt and all that. But it will re-kindle the discussion and make supporting Ukraine a little more difficult for politicians. And should evidence be found then, yes, it is perfectly within the realm of possibilities that Germany will stop at least the military support.

Oh well, fortunately we aren't there yet.

EDIT: Sorry, they did say "Ukrainians and Russians".

Didn't mean to chuff you, mate. 

It's early days on this and it's pretty clear that there is a ton of speculation going on. And none of it seems to be getting in the way of a false flag. You can see how the Washington Post (which has quite good connections in US intelligence) is not exactly jumping aboard the train. Or I should say, like most of those taking it seriously, the headline looks blaring and then the articles hem and haw quite a bit. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/03/07/intelligence-officials-suspect-ukraine-partisans-behind-nord-stream-bombings-rattling-kyivs-allies/

[The_Capt]

28 minutes ago, Butschi said:

It's like one of those Agatha Christie stories. A room full of people where everyone has a motive.

EDIT: For the uninitiated among us: MSO? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MSO

Maritime Special Operation

[billbindc]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Maritime Special Operation

Where were Steve, Elvis and Bil that week? And what was all that seawater doing in the scenario folder?

Edited March 8, 2023 by billbindc

[sburke]

26 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Where were Steve, Elvis and Bil that week? And what was all that seawater doing in the scenario folder?

The Eagles were playing away that week vs Wash so Elvis has no alibi.

[Fenris]

As the comment suggests, a slight widening of the cracks in RU ranks

 

[Fenris]

Another promising development

 

[kevinkin]

3 hours ago, cyrano01 said:

Absent the full range of SEAD bells and whistles that the US possesses

I think the assumption is they will get those jammers and ARM. That might be the third dimension the lady is talking about. Otherwise, why bother. I suppose she thinks a ground war is mostly 2D and gaining localized superiority in a 3D might move the RA out their trenches. In other words, even a small targeted contribution from the air might might chew up less manpower per effect on the ground. The UA needs some form of inflection that is greater than the sum of the parts.