How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Lethaface]

Regarding the rumors about increased airstrikes, Russia does seem to be increasing it's tests of AD recently. At least we saw the balloons above Kiev, but that could also just be a recently inspired idea. 
Today I read that Russia fired missiles during the dark hours of the night for the first time in a long while. That could also point to they're testing out the waters regarding Ukraines AD capabilities.

Theorizing, if the coming attack is supposed to be the last large operational level attack they are capable of in order to achieve an acceptable status quo for Russia, that might mean they are willing to take extra casualties with their planes compared to the usual stuff. What is a last ditch effort without fully committing?
It could be time for the airforce to show color and solidarity in taking heavy casualties. I mean what is 6% for Russian standards? That means they haven't tried hard enough ;-).

[Beleg85]

33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The Allies won the air war over Germany at a heavy cost and flak was the primary reason for it.  If we look at this war, everything is on a much smaller scale but the basic elements are somewhat similar.  The attacker (in this case Russia) has superior numbers and types of aircraft, the defender (Ukraine) has a small amount of fighters and a large amount of ground based defenses.  The Allies won the war over Germany mostly because the war ended.  If the war had gone on another year, I'm not so sure the Allies could have continued the bombing campaign without some sort of innovation not historically developed.

Steve

But what is the chance of, for example, forming "flying battering ram" from some old, obsolete aircrafts (like Mig-21 piloted by some barely trained Dagestani or even remotely controlled AN-2), sending them 2-3 waves in on relatively narrow front, tanking precious Ukrainian assets in the process, and only then sending real deal? If target would be big, static and relatively close to front (for example Kharkiv powerplants, some bridges on Dnieper etc.) in the eyes of Kremlin it could be worth the cost perhaps. If that would be one-time attack, I mean, not standard tactics. Sound Bodenplatte or half-kamikaze, but I can bet Kremlin at least considered similar scenario.

 

I already saw 2-3 mentions by Russian TG channels that Ukrainians are building improvised road to Bakhmut from the west. Perhaps @Haiduk knows something about it?

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

But what is the chance of, for example, forming "flying battering ram" from some old, obsolete aircrafts (like Mig-21 piloted by some barely trained Dagestani or even remotely controlled AN-2), sending them 2-3 waves in on relatively narrow front, tanking precious Ukrainian assets in the process, and only then sending real deal? If target would be big, static and relatively close to front (for example Kharkiv powerplants, some bridges on Dnieper etc.) in the eyes of Kremlin it could be worth the cost perhaps. If that would be one-time attack, I mean, not standard tactics. Sound Bodenplatte or half-kamikaze, but I can bet Kremlin at least considered similar scenario.

Theoretically possible, but I think we'd have seen OSINT about it already.  I know aircraft are not as easily observed, but I'm sure intel sources would know about this and have said something we would have come across.

Steve

[JonS]

It's also kind of a one-shot, hail-Mary deal. Unless it frees decisive manoover space for the ground forces, it doesnt really help much since it's unlikely to work twice let alone be able to become a routine tactic to enable use of the airspace over Ukraine.

Edited February 16, 2023 by JonS

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

It is a disturbing trend that begins to alarm.  All strategic nuclear deterrence theory hinges on one single point: a nation state is a rational player.  If you ensure to keep that state informed of the escalation threat, and keep MAD equilibrium then we are all just fine - we are pointing loaded weapons at each others heads, but we are still "fine".

It all falls apart when a nuclear power becomes a suicide state.

Now I am pretty sure Putin as a person, and the people around him are pretty much there because they are crossing strategic rivers here they cannot come back from down that road.  But the rest of the Russian people?  I am really hopeful are not and put Putin in the ground before it come to this.

I don't think we are that far along yet if only for the fact that the leadership of the Russian military/Wagner seem to be in no rush themselves to grab up the katana and charge the lines in Bakhmut. But what *is* happening looks like each sector of the military is being asked "What have you done to show your loyalty to the Russkiy Mir?" and off they send the boys to oblivion. There simply isn't the pre-existing cult of faux bushido that the Japanese military had ingested for 20 years before WWII. But they are working towards something similar, surely.

[Beleg85]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Theoretically possible, but I think we'd have seen OSINT about it already.  I know aircraft are not as easily observed, but I'm sure intel sources would know about this and have said something we would have come across.

Steve

12 minutes ago, JonS said:

It's also kind of a one-shot, hail-Mary deal. Unless it frees decisive manoover space for the ground forces, it doesnt really help much since it's unlikely to work twice let alone be able to become a routine tactic to enable use of the airspace over Ukraine.

Yes, that would be desparate (and probably damaging PR-wise as well). However, Azeris used An-2's stuffed with explosives to great effect in Karabakh war to eliminate enemy strongpoints. Of course Armenian AA was infinitelly worse than Ukrainian one, but if used en masse and on faster, remotely controlled jets, it theoretically could do some damage, especially against large objects (bridge?).

 

Ukrainian soldier with damn bloody luck:

 

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Which is bad enough as it is and Deutsche Bank is among the more evil of the lot.

DB, btw. is the official abbreviation for Deutsche Bahn (German Railway company), which incidentally is state owned and related to Deutsche Bank only in the sense that both are good at burning money...

Now I'm going to have to bash Germany for not requiring each major company to use a word that starts with a different letter after the "Deutsche".  I thought y'all were much more organized than that. That would limit you to 26 big companies with two word names, but you can always go to three or four to keep the abbreviations unique.

 

[chrisl]

35 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

But what is the chance of, for example, forming "flying battering ram" from some old, obsolete aircrafts (like Mig-21 piloted by some barely trained Dagestani or even remotely controlled AN-2), sending them 2-3 waves in on relatively narrow front, tanking precious Ukrainian assets in the process, and only then sending real deal? If target would be big, static and relatively close to front (for example Kharkiv powerplants, some bridges on Dnieper etc.) in the eyes of Kremlin it could be worth the cost perhaps. If that would be one-time attack, I mean, not standard tactics. Sound Bodenplatte or half-kamikaze, but I can bet Kremlin at least considered similar scenario.

 

I already saw 2-3 mentions by Russian TG channels that Ukrainians are building improvised road to Bakhmut from the west. Perhaps @Haiduk knows something about it?

I'm not sure that rickety old barnstorming fighter jets are a thing.  Those things take a ton of maintenance to be able to get off the ground and stay there long enough to do something useful.  Sending waves of old jets piloted by barely trained mobiks seems like a great way to make big pile of recycleable titanium and aluminum at the end of the runway.

[Beleg85]

Today's summary (no dramatic changes; perhaps Ukrainians lost some ground in Mariinka, but it wouldn't be first time):

1 minute ago, chrisl said:

Sending waves of old jets piloted by barely trained mobiks seems like a great way to make big pile of recycleable titanium and aluminum at the end of the runway.

Sounds like something entirely Russian to do.

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Now I'm going to have to bash Germany for not requiring each major company to use a word that starts with a different letter after the "Deutsche".  I thought y'all were much more organized than that. That would limit you to 26 big companies with two word names, but you can always go to three or four to keep the abbreviations unique.

 

Oh we still have the good old german grammatical option to use "zusammengesetzte Substantive", which gives us way more than 26 options and could result in things like this:

Deutsche Donaudampfschifffahrtsgesellschaftswirtschaftsprüfungsinspektion

German Danube Steamship Company Economic Audit Inspectorate

[Vet 0369]

On 2/14/2023 at 3:14 PM, The_Capt said:

She is a full Colonel and already knows the score.  

And, as a “full Colonel.” significantly outranks “The_Capt.”

[Fenris]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

It's also kind of a one-shot, hail-Mary deal. Unless it frees decisive manoover space for the ground forces, it doesnt really help much since it's unlikely to work twice let alone be able to become a routine tactic to enable use of the airspace over Ukraine.

 

Yes I kind of agree.  If RU tries some sort of Op Bodenplatte we can hope that UKR has enough AD to inflict the kind of losses the LW suffered and for the net result to be to knocking most of the VVS out of the fight longer term.  I would posit that the missile/drone campaign over the past months has already turned the UKR AD system into a well oiled machine so I think this lends weight to the chances of favourable result.

[Fenris]

32 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Oh we still have the good old german grammatical option to use "zusammengesetzte Substantive", which gives us way more than 26 options and could result in things like this:

Deutsche Donaudampfschifffahrtsgesellschaftswirtschaftsprüfungsinspektion

German Danube Steamship Company Economic Audit Inspectorate

 

Back in my Warbirds days we used to have great fun creating crazy long German sounding names for things.

[chrisl]

33 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Oh we still have the good old german grammatical option to use "zusammengesetzte Substantive", which gives us way more than 26 options and could result in things like this:

Deutsche Donaudampfschifffahrtsgesellschaftswirtschaftsprüfungsinspektion

German Danube Steamship Company Economic Audit Inspectorate

Invented by Germans in response to word count limits in academic abstracts... Just remove all the spaces and call it one word. England took the opposite extreme and paid by the word and gave us Charles Dickens.

[poesel]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

Now I'm going to have to bash Germany for not requiring each major company to use a word that starts with a different letter after the "Deutsche".  I thought y'all were much more organized than that. That would limit you to 26 big companies ...

Tsk - do you zink ve are some 26 letter alphabet peasantz? Ve also have Ä, Ö, Ü und ß to choose from.

[Vet 0369]

On 2/14/2023 at 9:16 PM, danfrodo said:

Russia will be flippin' broke, and won't have a lot of folks lending a hand.

I’m beginning to think that the troubles the Russian population will face will, overall, be handled the same way that rural residents in the U.S. handled the problems and effects of the “Great Depression.” 
Interviews or Most farmers, ranchers, etc, many stated that didn’t even realize they were in an economic depression. They simply continued to grow and breed their provisions, and eke out their “hard scrabble” lives as they always had. The Depression mainly affected the urban populations because they had trouble paying their loans and mortgages, and getting food. The vast majority of the Russian people are rural, and already know how to produce and barter for food, shelter, and everything they need to survive. I seriously doubt the sanctions are given more than a passing thought by them. The ones affected are primarily the urban residents who are mostly unable to do that.

[Lethaface]

16 minutes ago, poesel said:

Tsk - do you zink ve are some 26 letter alphabet peasantz? Ve also have Ä, Ö, Ü und ß to choose from.

That's just because you need a rule for everything 

[billbindc]

14 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I’m beginning to think that the troubles the Russian population will face will, overall, be handled the same way that rural residents in the U.S. handled the problems and effects of the “Great Depression.” 
Interviews or Most farmers, ranchers, etc, many stated that didn’t even realize they were in an economic depression. They simply continued to grow and breed their provisions, and eke out their “hard scrabble” lives as they always had. The Depression mainly affected the urban populations because they had trouble paying their loans and mortgages, and getting food. The vast majority of the Russian people are rural, and already know how to produce and barter for food, shelter, and everything they need to survive. I seriously doubt the sanctions are given more than a passing thought by them. The ones affected are primarily the urban residents who are mostly unable to do that.

Only 25% of the Russian population is rural. 

[Butschi]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Now I am pretty sure Putin as a person, and the people around him are pretty much there because they are crossing strategic rivers here they cannot come back from down that road.  But the rest of the Russian people?  I am really hopeful are not and put Putin in the ground before it come to this.

The problem here is: Putin & Cronies can press the Big Red Button without asking the rest of the Russian people first. If they go irrational and soldiers just follow orders that is enough to start Armageddon no matter how rational the Russian people is.

[Vet 0369]

12 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Only 25% of the Russian population is rural. 

I probably should have used the term “of the Russian Federation” instead of Russia. I seriously doubt that the entire population from Europe to the Pacific Ocean and from the Arctic to the Black Sea is only 25% rural.

Edited February 17, 2023 by Vet 0369
Typo

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I probably should have used the term “of the Russian Federation” instead of Russia. I seriously doubt that the entire population from Europe to the Pacific Ocean and from the Article to the Black Sea is only 25% rural.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.RUR.TOTL.ZS?locations=RU

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

Ohhh I get it! The RU Air Force is gonna start acting like...an Air force!

Kwatz, the Ukies will never see THIS dastardly trick coming!

*shakes head in astonished admiration*

Those clever, clever clever Ivans...

[JonS]

According to the CIA world Facebook, 75.3% of Russia's142,021,981 people (2022 est.)are classified as urban population.

[Beleg85]

8 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I probably should have used the term “of the Russian Federation” instead of Russia. I seriously doubt that the entire population from Europe to the Pacific Ocean and from the Article to the Black Sea is only 25% rural.

In Russia Moscow aglomeration is abnormaly large great-great sucker of everything. Rural population is very much minority in the country. And despite many of our misconceptions regarding loneliness of Russian glubinka, a lot of them is connected to local town centers, relying on them on almost everything- social services, energy, communication etc.

 

Look at those trophies of 79th Airborne brigade...some of them belong to Kadyrovites.

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by Beleg85

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, Butschi said:

The problem here is: Putin & Cronies can press the Big Red Button without asking the rest of the Russian people first. If they go irrational and soldiers just follow orders that is enough to start Armageddon no matter how rational the Russian people is.

There is no evidence at all that Putin and his cronies are acting irrationally within their own zeitgeist. The nukes haven't been put in a use posture, and they haven't made direct threats to use nukes offensively. If anything, when it comes to acts Russia has been careful to refrain from escalatory behavior towards NATO and the US. 

Where I worry is that Putin and his cronies have been content to let a lot of loose and apocalyptic talk about nukes flourish in their kept media. It's starting to seep into the culture. That's what happened to Japan. Things that had been unthinkable in 1925 were acceptable by 1945 like tokko operations and "body-crashing" tactics. In other words, I don't worry too much about this war. I worry what a broken Russia might do in the next one.