How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Is my link not working?  Seems it took me to the debate on forms of economic and governmental rule instead of How Hot is Ukraine Going to Get????  Is it possible that this divergence in discussion is intentional?  (Yes, I'm paranoid---but in my job I'm paid to be paranoid.)

Anyways, found the following quote interesting as to why Ukraine continues to battle for Bakhmut:

“We must understand the significance of these battles,” Mr. Zelensky said. “That is where the unprecedented destruction of Russian potential is taking place now.” 

 

Speaking of paranoia, I'm pretty curious as to why we are all being completely accepting of the idea that the US is pushing Ukraine hard to pull out of Bakhmut but Ukraine is refusing because reasons. Is that possible? Sure. Is it likely that simple? No. And could it be a piece of a fairly sophisticated information strategy aimed at Russian observers? I'd say almost certainly. 

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Ya and this is why I often wonder if the entire Human Experiment is a good idea.  We were built to function in social groups of about 50 or less, with an overall population of less than a million globally.  Our lifespans are too short, and cognitive horizons too narrow for the massive social undertakings we are in.

During COVID we could not get people to "sacrifice" in wearing face masks. Asking the average individual to draw a string from "why is my light bill so high...now I can't buy another pair of shoes to round out my collection and my Sik Sok channel will die!" to "the entire western order that allows for massive domestic debt is threatened" is likely asking too much.

If we could ask the flora and fauna, much of m will probably say 'bad, bad idea'. But we are here and they'll have to deal with it . Most people are too busy with basic needs and have little desire or capability to think bigger or make large decisions.
The mask thing here was a bit different, for a long while our government persisted that they provided too little actual protection and only mandated to wear them in public transport. So when they changed the policy halfway in the pandemic, the outcome was predictable. But in general your point is clear and correct imo.
There is the old saying 'the best argument against a democracy is a 5min conversation with the average voter'. Somewhere I think it is actually a good idea to have actual voting exams. If you can't differentiate between cause and effect or basic things like that, what's the point of voting? It's a bit harsh and controversial perhaps, but still.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

You hit on another point at the back end - offramps.  We have talked about a "soft landing" for Russia or even an offramp strategy for Putin, but I honestly get the sense that we are in "all in" territory.  We were not in the first six months of this war, but far too much blood has been spilled.  War being political is only ever half the answer, it is also deeply personal.  History is full of wars that went on long past the point of political rational.  Clausewitz should have said "war should be politics by other means" because more often than not it gets hijacked.  And when it does, we historically go to very dark places (e.g. Crusades, Thirty Years War).  I suspect this war has taken on a darker tone where saner heads will not prevail - another thing the west needs to wrap its head around.  This is a war of the "old ways" and dark angry red gods rule these lands.

Politics are also personal, although they shouldn't be. But I too think we are too far in too fold if Russia raises the stakes (what can they raise m with?). That is quite scary for many people, nukes and stuff.

There could be other reasons apart from offramps and or escalating further. One could be preferring Russia to slowly grind itself down to a 3rd world economy. And or preventing Ukraine to become to powerful too quickly. Etc. I'm not saying that those are actually in play (and other darker motives), but I don't rule m out either.

And yes Russia has made the tone quite dark with their style of war. We need not to be intimidated by it.

To get back to more positive lands

* The war is going much better for Ukraine than I had expected day 1. I didn't expect the 3 day victory for Russia, but neither did I expect it to be as incompetent as they have shown. I expected a sort of Grozny in Kiev and other major population centers and a long ugly guerrilla style war. We are now talking about how quickly Ukraine can end the war on their terms. 
* There is quite a bit of support and mostly united NATO and EU. There was no guarantees at all that there would be large amounts of support. Of course they could be larger, but still. The support is also accelerating.

* This isn't yet a 'Total War' (by Clausewitz's definition) at least on the side of Ukraine which we support (edit: also Russians didn't burn down the Kremlin yet). I don't see it going that way either. Of course people affected by the war will lose part of their humanity for a while. 

* Looking to the future we will be better prepared for round 2 and Ukraine will be much better prepared for it.  

 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Lethaface

[Lethaface]

45 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

We do need to worry about escalation risks from Russia, feigned or real. If Russia did have Crimea as a red line, it would be best for the West to hit that red line as slow as possible, to avoid having to pull support quicker and with more time to maintain support. 

I was thinking of potential other reasons, posted above. But indeed preventing escalation / WW3  is one of the more plausible explanations. 

[DesertFox]

Lovely country...

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Speaking of paranoia, I'm pretty curious as to why we are all being completely accepting of the idea that the US is pushing Ukraine hard to pull out of Bakhmut but Ukraine is refusing because reasons. Is that possible? Sure. Is it likely that simple? No. And could it be a piece of a fairly sophisticated information strategy aimed at Russian observers? I'd say almost certainly. 

Messaging is clearly being "leaked" deliberately, therefore it is a sure bet that there's more too this than the written words imply.  However, it could be to pressure Ukraine to change course as much as it is to lull Russia into a false sense of progress.  Could be both.

Steve

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Messaging is clearly being "leaked" deliberately, therefore it is a sure bet that there's more too this than the written words imply.  However, it could be to pressure Ukraine to change course as much as it is to lull Russia into a false sense of progress.  Could be both.

Steve

ahhhhh, interesting takes from BillBinDC & you.  So if RU thinks it's current offensive slaughterhouse strategy is forestalling UKR spring offensive, it will continue to burn up men & material in amounts that will come to haunt when the spring offensive comes.  Kinda like The Emperor's old "fully operational death star" trick.  

[Zeleban]

31 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Much from Marx &  Engels and Lenin are still valid. Gramsci, Frankfurt school, Zizek, all have made good contributions to philosophy, sociology and political economy. Dialectical materialism is a useful framework. Anarchist contributions towards anti authoritarian and horizontal frameworks of living and organizing are valuable too, offering alternatives to systems and ethics based on exploitation, chauvinism and profit over all else. 

Socialist authors to this day are still critiquing current affairs and dominant ideologies in a way that profit centered, corporate owned media cannot DARE to do(for obvious reasons). 

The sheer hostility towards their work by people who haven't read them, and the way they are all strawmanned by oligarch funded sock puppets(when not outright banned or kept out of circulation) is quite telling.

Bosses don't tend to like it when people ask for more, and question the power relations and double standards.  Cultural chauvinists and dogmatic religious leaders don't like when their mythological grand narratives have holes poked in them. And people who claim to oppose tyranny and support freedom want to suppress the ideas and books and the people they disagree with.

Lenin never showed any interest in philosophy. All his works concerned political economy. What ideas of Lenin do you like in this area? seizure of private property? food distribution? transferring power to the poorest sections of the population?

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

Kinda like The Emperor's old "fully operational death star" trick.

When I finally retire I am going to write a bit on the Strategy of the Empire in Star Wars - this is but one example of some pretty baffling decisions and inconsistencies. 

[DesertFox]

5 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So if RU thinks it's current offensive slaughterhouse strategy is forestalling UKR spring offensive, it will continue to burn up men & material in amounts that will come to haunt when the spring offensive comes. 

Yes. If I got the figures correct then RU currently suffer the highest amount of daily losses since the lunatic genius started his 3-day "military operation and peace" theatre piece.

Russian soldier death rate highest since first week of war - Ukraine - BBC News

[Lethaface]

4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Lenin never showed any interest in philosophy. All his works concerned political economy. What ideas of Lenin do you like in this area? seizure of private property? food distribution? transferring power to the poorest sections of the population?

Without every having lived in a communist country (and no desire to do), the basic point is quite understandable. Why are the 'workers' slaving away 12hours a day without offdays for a small wage that allows their families to eat while the factory owner and his family become filthy rich? If that imbalance is too large, some day people will revolt. Now that's probably way too oversimplified but that's how I look at it more or less.

But things don't have to be black or white. Communism in practice was never like the theory. There was still an elite, the workers still got ****.

[DesertFox]

With the next update we need the CV90 in the game. Lovely IFV.

 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2023 by DesertFox

[Lethaface]

5 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

With the next update we need the CV90 in the game. Lovely IFV.

 

 

Another 50? Or is this the 'old' news? 

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

Another 50? Or is this the 'old' news? 

Im not sure, could be either.

[danfrodo]

Interesting summary here today, including some tankie comments.  Did y'all know there won't be any UKR spring offensive?-- because RU will have won the war by then!   Meanwhile, Bakhmut sector holds.  RU allegedly building up for big offensive, at least in rumor.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/2/15/2153100/-Ukraine-update-Bakhmut-holds-but-tankies-are-falling-ever-deeper-into-fantasy-land

As per mentioned above, CV90s would be great.  That 40mm gun is quite a beast.  

 

[billbindc]

14 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Without every having lived in a communist country (and no desire to do), the basic point is quite understandable. Why are the 'workers' slaving away 12hours a day without offdays for a small wage that allows their families to eat while the factory owner and his family become filthy rich? If that imbalance is too large, some day people will revolt. Now that's probably way too oversimplified but that's how I look at it more or less.

But things don't have to be black or white. Communism in practice was never like the theory. There was still an elite, the workers still got ****.

Not remotely a Communist myself but in influence, it's hard to understate Marx's impact both good and bad. Some suggested reading for folks who wonder why: https://www.amazon.com/Eighteenth-Brumaire-Louis-Bonaparte/dp/0717800563

[Lethaface]

I read today Ukraine get it's first support from an international fund for Ukraine. That seems like the way to go for me, no more measuring who has the largest 'support stick' plus Ukraine can decide themselves what to buy with it. At least that's how I understand it.

"First military aid to Ukraine from international fund
For the first time, Ukraine will receive support from a new fund for military equipment. The fund, which was set up at the end of last year, is a British initiative. The Netherlands is one of the participating countries and has invested 100 million euros in the fund. The equipment is purchased directly from the industry.

Minister Ollongren announced in Brussels that Ukraine will soon have access to new ammunition, spare parts and air defense systems. "As fighting intensifies and Ukraine prepares for a new offensive, speed of deliveries is literally vital," the minister said.

According to Ollongren, by joining forces with other countries and with the industry, Ukraine can be supported more and faster."

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Much from Marx &  Engels and Lenin are still valid. Gramsci, Frankfurt school, Zizek, all have made good contributions to philosophy, sociology and political economy. Dialectical materialism is a useful framework. Anarchist contributions towards anti authoritarian and horizontal frameworks of living and organizing are valuable too, offering alternatives to systems and ethics based on exploitation, chauvinism and profit over all else. 

Socialist authors to this day are still critiquing current affairs and dominant ideologies in a way that profit centered, corporate owned media cannot DARE to do(for obvious reasons). 

The sheer hostility towards their work by people who haven't read them, and the way they are all strawmanned by oligarch funded sock puppets(when not outright banned or kept out of circulation) is quite telling.

Bosses don't tend to like it when people ask for more, and question the power relations and double standards.  Cultural chauvinists and dogmatic religious leaders don't like when their mythological grand narratives have holes poked in them. And people who claim to oppose tyranny and support freedom want to suppress the ideas and books and the people they disagree with.

Ok, you are right in many points- left, even radical one (I don't treat socialdemocrats or mild socialist as such), can provide very useful (or at least interesting) intellectual perspective.

Now the problem here is that communism created one of the most (some people can even tell the most) bloody political framework in human history- whole set of ideological narratives that induced unimagineable suffering. All these ideologies based on hard left have one thing in common- they weren't seriously tried in the West, where they were basically invented. You get where I am going to? If Zizek treated himself seriously- if he even can, I mean- he would burn his Stalin's portrait and stop calling himself communist. It's tasteless, not really funny and despicable to millions of victims. Btw. I like the guy, just this ideology is dead as one-year corps of hagnman eaten by vultures in some old Transylvania crossraods.

Going back to Ukraine perspective and topic of this board - cultural imperialism is very much connected to political one, that's obvious. I am not for "cancelling" Russian culture, just remind you folks that some temporary ban on "enemy things" was common through history. Brits and Americans did that in WWII with German cultural products (Wagner was de facto forbidden well into 40's) or Japanese pottery. It will go back when Russia will become more civilzied again- hopefully, enriched in new perspectives of people who suffered by it. This is nothing new, and nothing to be particluary concerned for.

Very soon we will have the same issues with Russian athlets in Olympic ceremony; I can't imagine them just walking around like that.

 

Going back to military:

https://wartranslated.com/igor-girkin-on-the-potential-of-a-large-scale-russian-offensive/

Edited February 15, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, you are right in many points- left, even radical one (I don't treat socialdemocrats or mild socialist as such), can provide very useful (or at least interesting) intellectual perspective.

Around me is forest.  Very few people want to see the forest roped off and never used again, but the environmentalists that propose such things have been the reason the industrial land owners have greatly improved their treatment of the land over the years.  Without the radical ideas on one side you're unlikely going to see the radical ideas on the other side balanced out.

6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Going back to Ukraine perspective and topic of this board - cultural imperialism is very much connected to political one, that's obvious. I am not for "cancelling" Russian culture, just remind you folks that some temporary ban on "enemy things" was common through history. Brits and Americans did that in WWII with German cultural products (Wagner was de facto forbidden well into 40's) or Japanese pottery.

Hell, there the Republicans renamed "French Fries" to "Freedom Fries" when the French opposed the 2003 invasion of Iraq.  Seriously:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_fries

Steve

[Beleg85]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hell, there the Republicans renamed "French Fries" to "Freedom Fries" when the French opposed the 2003 invasion of Iraq.  Seriously:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_fries

Steve

Oh yeah, I remember that. That was rather weird at that time.

Well, if similar things appear connected to this war, we should treat such acts as actually sign of benevolent involvment of common people around the globe in justified Ukrainian war effort, and not trying to block it in the name of some wrongly- percieved political corectness or symetrism (after all, what they can personally do seeing all this carnage?). Chaikovsky, Dostoyevsky and this bloody fashist Pushkin will eventually manage, even if not played for several years, don't need to worry.

In turn, it is good occassion for example to try some great works of Ukrainian literature, cinema and art. Larisa Shepitko (Soviet-Ukrainian filmmaker), Serhiy Loznica, Serhiy Zhadan, Yuriy Andruchovycz- you can't go wrong with those names, if you only value good culture. Add music, theatre etc. I hope because of this war Ukrainains will finally have their own "introduction" into global cultural stage, and that it will not only be temporary phenomenon made from occassional interesment.

 

Realtively interesting (translated) interview with common UA soldier:

https://biznesalert-pl.translate.goog/zolniez-ukraina-wojsko-inwazja-bezpieczenstwo/?_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Edited February 15, 2023 by Beleg85

[_Morpheus_]

 

[DesertFox]

Maybe you have seen before, I  hadn´t. Impressive movie of the swedish Archer in action. Pledged for Ukraine by PM Kristersson.

 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2023 by DesertFox

[FancyCat]

 

Current head of Bellingcat has fled to North America from Austria in response reportedly of Russian intelligence and Austrian turncoats hunting him.

[JonS]

6 hours ago, Astrophel said:

The thing about capitalism is that bad ideas die

That's not universally true.

[womble]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

When I finally retire I am going to write a bit on the Strategy of the Empire in Star Wars - this is but one example of some pretty baffling decisions and inconsistencies. 

You're probably joking, and I may be about to commit heresy, but "Please, don't waste your time." The whole tottering cinematic edifice is a collection of convenient macguffins and Mary Sues meant to tell a vaguely-connected series of fun action stories. There is no actual consistency for you to analyse, and the characters make decisions that suit the story the author wants to tell at the time, whether or not there's any prior indication that it would be a good idea or otherwise.

[kraze]

5 hours ago, keas66 said:

Guys - look you probably have  plenty of examples  of bad things in past literature - Its the nature of  things . I enjoy  Literature and Non fiction from times when   people of color  were clearly being  treated as less than human in literature of the times . Do I think such Books need to be purged from  our Libraries ? Well - personally no  . And I'll happily keep what Russian Literature I have as well - safe on my bookshelves . When you start targeting the Literature /Books of a Culture for reasons of the moment  -  you are heading down a troublesome path that I have no interest in going down .

The troublesome path of removing "books of a culture" that both (books and culture) call upon killing me and others like me, with that "moment" lasting centuries and resulting in the death of about every 2-3 Ukrainian in 20th century alone?

Might as well.

Edited February 15, 2023 by kraze