How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[TheVulture]

14 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yeah, only problem is, that tweet I quoted is by the polish Minister of Defense. I guess he should know?

 

Or the person who wrote it up made a mistake somewhere.

 

According to the manufacturer (Lockheed Martin) https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/himars.html

"There are more than 540 fielded [HIMARS] systems worldwide".

Which means that there aren't much more than that (if there were 700, you don't say "more than 540" in your press release.

I don't think that Poland is single handedly donating 95% of globally deployed HIMARS to Ukraine.

[dan/california]

34 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yeah, only problem is, that tweet I quoted is by the polish Minister of Defense. I guess he should know?

 

I think this might be a case of what they asked for, and what they are getting in the next decade. Poland is notionally trying to order an army that could march on Moscow.

Edited February 7, 2023 by dan/california

[MHW]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

In the US,  the capital is protected by the Capitol police,  who are straight police, non paramilitary (nothing heavier than a few MRAPs). Perhaps our US friends can explain why it's a Capitol and not Capital...!  The Government in person is protected by the Secret Service,  who would be Praetorian (to me). I don't think there's a special  military unit designated as a "Palace"  protector. It's why on Jan 6 the DC Police asked for the National Guard, from Maryland,  essentially inviting the armed forces into the seat of government.

"Capital" (with an "A") comes from the Latin caput, for "head," and it refers to the city that is the center of government. "Capitol" (with an "O") also has a Latin origin, confusingly—it refers to the Capitoline Hill in Rome and to the Capitolium, a particular building on top of that hill.

Capital = a city / Capitol = a building

The U.S. Capitol Police work for Congress, not for the Executive Branch, and they normally exercise jurisdiction over the Capitol Building, the surrounding office complexes, and some of the adjoining streets and sidewalks.

The U.S. Secret Service protects the persons of the president, vice president, and their families; as well as some other senior officials, visiting dignitaries, and a dizzying array of former White House residents. The agency also operates a large, roughly 1,300-officer Uniformed Division, which guards the White House, Vice Presidential Residence, and foreign embassies and consulates all over D.C. I live in the District, and I note that USSS uniformed officers are some of the only police who make traffic stops, and that they respond enthusiastically to calls for service near their posts. A couple weeks ago, a dozen Secret Service cars descended on the supermarket near me after a customer got in a fight with the manager.

The White House's communications, transportation, mess, and medical services are run by military personnel under the White House Military Office.

The U.S. Army's 3rd Infantry ("The Old Guard") has two battalions in the D.C. area, mostly tasked for ceremonial roles, but trained as light infantry and for DSCA. Similarly, there's about a battalion at the Marine Barracks. Employing any of these federal forces within the U.S. is legally complicated under posse comitatus, so commanders usually call out National Guard units for civil disturbances or public event support. If I remember correctly, most of the initial force of Guardsmen on January 6th came from the D.C. National Guard—they know the area, are based nearby, and are weighted toward MPs.

Most of the deployable units in the area report to Joint Headquarters National Capital Region, a part of U.S. Northern Command, at least for non-routine operations. 

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, MHW said:

"Capital" (with an "A") comes from the Latin caput, for "head," and it refers to the city that is the center of government. "Capitol" (with an "O") also has a Latin origin, confusingly—it refers to the Capitoline Hill in Rome and to the Capitolium, a particular building on top of that hill.

Capital = a city / Capitol = a building

The U.S. Capitol Police work for Congress, not for the Executive Branch, and they normally exercise jurisdiction over the Capitol Building, the surrounding office complexes, and some of the adjoining streets and sidewalks.

The U.S. Secret Service protects the persons of the president, vice president, and their families; as well as some other senior officials, visiting dignitaries, and a dizzying array of former White House residents. The agency also operates a large, roughly 1,300-officer Uniformed Division, which guards the White House, Vice Presidential Residence, and foreign embassies and consulates all over D.C. I live in the District, and I note that USSS uniformed officers are some of the only police who make traffic stops, and that they respond enthusiastically to calls for service near their posts. A couple weeks ago, a dozen Secret Service cars descended on the supermarket near me after a customer got in a fight with the manager.

The White House's communications, transportation, mess, and medical services are run by military personnel under the White House Military Office.

The U.S. Army's 3rd Infantry ("The Old Guard") has two battalions in the D.C. area, mostly tasked for ceremonial roles, but trained as light infantry and for DSCA. Similarly, there's about a battalion at the Marine Barracks. Employing any of these federal forces within the U.S. is legally complicated under posse comitatus, so commanders usually call out National Guard units for civil disturbances or public event support. If I remember correctly, most of the initial force of Guardsmen on January 6th came from the D.C. National Guard—they know the area, are based nearby, and are weighted toward MPs.

Most of the deployable units in the area report to Joint Headquarters National Capital Region, a part of U.S. Northern Command, at least for non-routine operations. 

Fellow resident here and that's all spot on.

And that's just a taste of how many police departments exist in the city: 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_law_enforcement_agencies_in_the_District_of_Columbia

[Sojourner]

43 minutes ago, MHW said:

"Capital" (with an "A") comes from the Latin caput, for "head," and it refers to the city that is the center of government. "Capitol" (with an "O") also has a Latin origin, confusingly—it refers to the Capitoline Hill in Rome and to the Capitolium, a particular building on top of that hill.

Capital = a city / Capitol = a building

The U.S. Capitol Police work for Congress, not for the Executive Branch, and they normally exercise jurisdiction over the Capitol Building, the surrounding office complexes, and some of the adjoining streets and sidewalks.

The U.S. Secret Service protects the persons of the president, vice president, and their families; as well as some other senior officials, visiting dignitaries, and a dizzying array of former White House residents. The agency also operates a large, roughly 1,300-officer Uniformed Division, which guards the White House, Vice Presidential Residence, and foreign embassies and consulates all over D.C. I live in the District, and I note that USSS uniformed officers are some of the only police who make traffic stops, and that they respond enthusiastically to calls for service near their posts. A couple weeks ago, a dozen Secret Service cars descended on the supermarket near me after a customer got in a fight with the manager.

The White House's communications, transportation, mess, and medical services are run by military personnel under the White House Military Office.

The U.S. Army's 3rd Infantry ("The Old Guard") has two battalions in the D.C. area, mostly tasked for ceremonial roles, but trained as light infantry and for DSCA. Similarly, there's about a battalion at the Marine Barracks. Employing any of these federal forces within the U.S. is legally complicated under posse comitatus, so commanders usually call out National Guard units for civil disturbances or public event support. If I remember correctly, most of the initial force of Guardsmen on January 6th came from the D.C. National Guard—they know the area, are based nearby, and are weighted toward MPs.

Most of the deployable units in the area report to Joint Headquarters National Capital Region, a part of U.S. Northern Command, at least for non-routine operations. 

What a great first post, very informative, thank you for that.

Presumably @Battlefront.com will be along shortly to offer an official welcome.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Sojourner

[MHW]

1 minute ago, Sojourner said:

What a great fist post, very informative, thank you for that.

Presumably @Battlefront.com will be along shortly to offer an official welcome.

That's very kind of you. Longtime lurker, though I should have a few posts back to the CMBO days under some other username and an long-forgotten email address.

[Kraft]

Russians advanced about 20 body lengths today. Besides the sass, geolocated bodies do show no noticable gains outside of Bakhmut. Shaping operations for UA spring/summer offensive?

New Oryx losses:

Edited February 8, 2023 by Kraft

[billbindc]

 

This is getting super interesting. The Russian state is issuing approval for more private armies. Governments that are dependent on force to the degree that Russia is are normally *quite* reluctant to give up a monopoly on force. The only way that I can see this is that state need is far greater than state capacity and Putin is allowing this out of necessity.

[Beleg85]

Some first summaries of battle of Vuhledar comes out in our channels. They vary in details, but they seem to have several common thropes:

-Russians managed to break through first line of defence within 48hrs and push into the outskirts if the town from S and E (note- it is rather blob of blocks in the middle of wide fields than sparse settlement like Bakkmut)

-meanwhile, they formed two additional pincers to sorround the town manouvre-style. Mostly navy infantry and motostrielki.

-these were stuck on minefields, but most of all blown by artillery supported by drones (exact role of last element still unknown). One of the columns , the one with packed vehicles, was most probably hit before even manage to deploy.

- details wary, but it seems coordination between infantry and armour was luckluster- once hit by artillery, soldiers run out to cover, armour stayed desoriented, all while being shot in open fields (common situation, unfortunatelly sometimes happens to Ukrainians too)

-several mentions of strong Ukrainian counterattack that managed to push muscovites back to their holes and reinstate normal defensive lines. Situation stable for now.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Beleg85

[RockinHarry]

1 hour ago, Offshoot said:

Prigozhin getting all high and mighty and challenging Zelensky to a dogfight dual. Why does it look like Prigozhin is having trouble keeping his dinner down, maybe after some high Gs?

 

... maybe he isn´t that great of a cook after all? It´s likely he just wanted seeing Wagner corpse fields himself, estimating how many salaries are not to be paid anymore.

[Beleg85]

29 minutes ago, billbindc said:

This is getting super interesting. The Russian state is issuing approval for more private armies. Governments that are dependent on force to the degree that Russia is are normally *quite* reluctant to give up a monopoly on force. The only way that I can see this is that state need is far greater than state capacity and Putin is allowing this out of necessity.

Gossips that Gazprom may raise their own mercs was flying for some time already. Some time ago people speculated it may be connected to necessity of guarding the railways (especially Transiberian), ports, factories, rafineries etc. - reportedly moskals already delegated non-insignificant internal and even regular military forces just for guarding duties in their geographically vast infrastructure. New bodyguard force could free them up.

[Offshoot]

49 minutes ago, billbindc said:

This is getting super interesting. The Russian state is issuing approval for more private armies. Governments that are dependent on force to the degree that Russia is are normally *quite* reluctant to give up a monopoly on force. The only way that I can see this is that state need is far greater than state capacity and Putin is allowing this out of necessity.

Given that five (~20%) of the suspicious deaths of Russian businessmen over the past year have involved people associated with Gazprom, it begs the question of who is protecting who from who - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022-2023_Russian_businessmen_suspicious_deaths

[The_Capt]

56 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Russians advanced about 20 body lengths today. Besides the sass, geolocated bodies do show no noticable gains outside of Bakhmut. Shaping operations for UA spring/summer offensive?

New Oryx losses:

Am I reading this right is that pretty much a tank company out of action?

[The_Capt]

57 minutes ago, billbindc said:

 

This is getting super interesting. The Russian state is issuing approval for more private armies. Governments that are dependent on force to the degree that Russia is are normally *quite* reluctant to give up a monopoly on force. The only way that I can see this is that state need is far greater than state capacity and Putin is allowing this out of necessity.

This is another devolution.  During WW1 state ran out of capacity as well and private regiments were stood up, funded by nobility and rich folk.  We still have the PPCLI to this day.

As to Russia’s current situation…what could possibly go wrong?

[Beleg85]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This is another devolution.  During WW1 state ran out of capacity as well and private regiments were stood up, funded by nobility and rich folk.  We still have the PPCLI to this day.

As to Russia’s current situation…what could possibly go wrong?

The funniest thing in all of this is a fact that theoretically any armed and mercenary groups are strictly forbidden under Russian law. They officially keep monopoly of a state on violence as one of most precious prerogative. Meanwhile Wagner opens business-recruiting center, organize picnincs and visits kindergardens and school.

[paxromana]

11 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This is another devolution.  During WW1 state ran out of capacity as well and private regiments were stood up, funded by nobility and rich folk.  We still have the PPCLI to this day.

PPCLI was raised in August 1914 - less than three weeks after the outbreak of war and six days after Canada DoW'ed - and well before any nominal shortage of capacity.

Russian PMCs are a different kettle of fish!

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

 

This is getting super interesting. The Russian state is issuing approval for more private armies. Governments that are dependent on force to the degree that Russia is are normally *quite* reluctant to give up a monopoly on force. The only way that I can see this is that state need is far greater than state capacity and Putin is allowing this out of necessity.

Two separate thoughts.

Won't these private companies compete with the MOD for what passes for able bodied men in Russia, and therefore make the problems worse?

Or is this a place to stash the children of the rich and/or  privileged where they can claim to be legally unavailable for service at say, the Bakmuht front?

[Beleg85]

Summary (translation from a twitter feed: @Artur_Micek) of today's events from one of guys with wide net of informants. Note heavy fights in Svatovo-Dvorichna-Kreminna line.

https://threadreaderapp-com.translate.goog/thread/1623086200952168450.html?_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

On another note- Russians started to shell Kharkiv again. It may point toward near (or even already ongoing) moskals offensive.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

The funniest thing in all of this is a fact that theoretically any armed and mercenary groups are strictly forbidden under Russian law. They officially keep monopoly of a state on violence as one of most precious prerogative. Meanwhile Wagner opens business-recruiting center, organize picnincs and visits kindergardens and school.

This mostly proves that Wagner is a wholly owned subsidiary of the GRU. Although in the current state of extremis that does not prevent it from going rogue in any number of ways. 

There is a safe somewhere that justifies the pardons Prigohzin is handing out, too. But suspect various bits of the Russian state would rather shoot you than let you read it.

I wonder if those pardons will suddenly come into question a few months after what winds up passing for an armistice?

[billbindc]

48 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Gossips that Gazprom may raise their own mercs was flying for some time already. Some time ago people speculated it may be connected to necessity of guarding the railways (especially Transiberian), ports, factories, rafineries etc. - reportedly moskals already delegated non-insignificant internal and even regular military forces just for guarding duties in their geographically vast infrastructure. New bodyguard force could free them up.

Just had a flashback to the  All-Russian Executive Committee of the Union of Railwaymen and their absolutely crucial role in the events of 1917. An incredibly risky move.

[Beleg85]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I wonder if those pardons will suddenly come into question a few months after what winds up passing for an armistice?

Probably there will be so few prisoners who even survive all of this with their legs and limbs intact it will not matter in larger scale anyway...I would be much worried on Russian place of the effect of regular soldiers coming home one day.

Also to be fair (addendum to previous post about mercs) Wagnerites are still not parading with their arms openly in public spaces. Sometimes Chechens and of course various specialized agencies do, but they have right to it/nobody want to take it from them.

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Just had a flashback to the  All-Russian Executive Committee of the Union of Railwaymen and their absolutely crucial role in the events of 1917. An incredibly risky move.

Yup. Unfortunatelly, historical circumstances are so different now I wouldn't expect any serious trouble on mercs/bodyguards part, at leats in foreseeable future. They are subordinated to Kremlin directly or thrugh Putin's goons, and there is zero social ferment made by any kind of ideology nowadays. Ok, maybe hardcore nationalists to some extent, but they few and far between.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Beleg85

[NamEndedAllen]

17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Or is this a place to stash the children of the rich and/or  privileged where they can claim to be legally unavailable for service at say, the Bakmuht front?

That’s a very interesting speculation! 

[The_Capt]

56 minutes ago, paxromana said:

PPCLI was raised in August 1914 - less than three weeks after the outbreak of war and six days after Canada DoW'ed - and well before any nominal shortage of capacity.

Russian PMCs are a different kettle of fish!

Fair point.
This would be neglecting the state of the Canadian military in Aug of 14, which was in a perpetual state of a lack of capacity…just like it was in 39.  Low capacity does not always have to follow attrition, lack of political will to spend on defence will do as well.

https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/history-of-the-armed-forces-in-canada#:~:text=By 1914%2C Canada's permanent force,than 70%2C000 partially trained militia.

Our military was so small that it lacked the capacity to force generate what it needed nor could it mobilize fast enough, so turned to a privately raised regiment.  It is actually a very old model and was last used in Canada during WW1 with the Patricia’s.  They were essentially a privately funded and raised rapid reaction force and went from zero to France by Jan 14 (pretty impressive). Composed of a lot of veterans it was likely one of the best units we put into action that early in the war.  But correct the PPCLI was not raised to to attrition during the war, it was raised due to institutional attrition before it.

Interesting article on this history of PMCs.

http://www.journal.forces.gc.ca/Vol19/No1/page46-eng.asp

Of course a very key difference between the PPCLI was that they were privately raised and then turned over to government control.  They were a strictly non-for profit organization that did not violate a state monopoly on warfare.

Russian PMCs appear to be a similar response as the state currently cannot produce enough capacity so is turning to private industry.  Albeit after spending their government military in the last year in the dying fields of Ukraine.  And of course are “for profit” which comes with a lot of issues.

Edited February 8, 2023 by The_Capt

[Beleg85]

59 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Or is this a place to stash the children of the rich and/or  privileged where they can claim to be legally unavailable for service at say, the Bakmuht front?

Very good point, quite believeable in the light what we know about functioning of Russian state. Sons of oligarchs and top aparatchiks are untouchable anyway, but If indeed this formation is to be used domestically, it could attract guys from middle class (by a way of hefty bribe, of course) and bring some much-needed money to Putin. Gazprom is an institution better grown into some of local communities than official structures of power; its magical glifs on buildings, cultural centers and various business enterprises provides almost holy untouchability from the point of view of common men. It could work.

Classic move as old as empires themselves: https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Scholae_Palatinae

Edited February 8, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, MHW said:

That's very kind of you. Longtime lurker, though I should have a few posts back to the CMBO days under some other username and an long-forgotten email address.

Welcome back!  Thanks for delurking and an informative post.  I think if one can understand how DC works, one can understand just about anything.  Hell, next time one of my vehicles has a problem I might email you

Steve