How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I do agree that deciding on a single set of platforms, and then sticking to that would be a good idea...but we kind already did.  Remember all that soviet-based equipment coming in from Eastern Europe?  Finally, we have reports of UA forces dismounting 1km away from its vehicles on the offence.  Is this because they have sub-standard vehicles, or just the realities that big hot metal on the battlefield in this environment is tricky to manage no matter what the version?

Yah but they're dismounting from mobile soviet garbage cans! God those things are the worst, the godammn worst. Better than an SUV sure, whatever.

Do you think a UKR team inside a Bradley would dismount an equivalent distance away? Then what's the point of all that gee-whizz armor protection and sensing, if a modern Western IFV is just as vulnerable as a 30 years old soviet POS?

Certainly, anything that can hit your wheels from a Km away probably also has the punch to KO it, but still - the godawful optics on soviet stuff puts you at an immediate disadvantage, so LOL seeing the shooter first, the armor is ROFL and the survivability design is LMFAO. Western armor has significant advantages over Soviet, which should certainly allow UKR to press home their attacks in a far better fashion, and if their taxis go pop then then men inside often are not dead and come ou super pissed and Javs in hand. Many, many times I've snotted a Bradley in CMBS and had its damn uber riders pile out, occupy the nearest structure and snot me back.

Yes, big metal is a target, its always a target. But if the big metal has excellent eyes and networking, then it has much better chance of nailing the shooter first and if it's designed right, which Bradleys are (dont laugh, I mean for survivability) then the difference is significant.

Tricky to survive or not, a Bradley will for sure get my little pixel nutjobs closer to the edge and survive for longer.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

13 minutes ago, Fenris said:

 

This is my hope also.  The current situation feels similar to Sievierodonetsk last year.  RU pushing hard for small gains in a meat grinder battle.  Not much of an apparent response from UKR.  A good deal of doom saying and anxiety in the online commentary.  Fingers crossed there's something similar to the Kharkiv operation in the works. 

Interestingly, it also echos the anecdotal accounts of local AFU tactical command lapses from that battle. When UKR has its Command poop together the Ivan makes no headway. When they fumble the ball the Russians have enough sense to pile in, exacerbating the issue. Then UKR High Elves come down, yell the humies into shape and AFU starts re-kicking Orc butt.

I suspect Soledar or adjacent will have one more surge attack (theres simply so many enemy numbers in the area) but that UKR has a clearer handle on things.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

22 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Now that is interesting!  As you say, it is a HiTech form of Human Wave attacks with a little bit of infiltration tactics thrown in when possible (opportunities and unit capabilities).

What hasn't been clearly stated here is the obvious criminal nature of this doctrine.  Wagner's leaders are knowingly and purposefully developing tactics that rely on throwing people's lives away for tiny geographical gains.

As I told Wagner has different personnel: zeks, free-hired civilians with no service experience (or with conscript service experience), former contractors with 1-3 year of contract service experiense, retired veterans with wide service and combat experience and just "advanture seekers" with propensity of violence. So, this attutude of "human waves" PMC command uses only for "zeks" and sometime for "free-hired".

If up to 2015-2017 PMC Wagner was "closed club" only for experienced men, that after PMC became a tool of Russian influence not only in Syria, but in Africa too (CAR, Lybia, Mozambik, Mali), enlistment was opened for all. If in 2015-2016 PMC had about 2800 of personnel, that later, I forgot the exact year, but in pre-war years Wagner had some less of 5000 of troops. Since this time "Wagner" became more symbol of romantic for Russians (they even made a movie "Tourist" about Wagners in CAR, which was very good PR for this PMC), but lost reputation of "elite unit only for dogs of war". From Wagner were "detached" other PMCs - "Liga" and "Redut". They are real "elite" forces, but not so large as "Wagner" and of course they don't act in "human wave" mode

Interesting, that first Wagner commander Dmitriy Utkin (codename "Wagner", from which PMC takes own name), who was well known in 2014-2017 now silently dissapeared from scene, giving the way to Prigozhyn - formal "master" of PMCs (but indуed he is just "right hand" of Putin and FSB stays behind him).

But back to Wagner tactic again. Here is a video, filmed from UKR frone by "Birds of Madyar" UAV team probably from 10th mountain-assault brigade. This guy posts many inteersting videos, commenting it in very fanny manner - he uses a pointer to show orcs on the screen, which soon will be dead after grenade dropping or arty strike, so some western readers named him "Madyar - the Pointer of Doom"

So, part 1 (upper video)

Wagner assault group of 10 men approaches to small UKR position. On approach group is diavided on two fives. They slowly advance 1,5 km along the ditch or ravine, Madyar names this "canal". When first five appear on the screen, likely mortar shell impacts and one Wagner became "200". After explosion secon five appears. First five (already four) in this time spots UKR position - both teams divide on pairs and first four aggresively advances forward, consucting suppressive fire from rifles and maybe MG. Then they started to throw grenades.

Part 2 (lower video)

We see UKR trench with 2 or 3 soldiers, shooting at Wagners. Wagners continue grende trowing and firing. One pair tried rapidly attack the trench, but probably UKR soldiers have thrown grenades or opened very intensive fire (we don't see this), but Wagner pair quicly retreated. All 9 Wagners now in one place. Then we have some cutting of video and next we already have seen Wagner fighters in UKR trench. UKR soldiers likely withdrew, after they pushed back first pair.

 Part 3 (lower video)

Wageners in captured UKR trench have a skirmish with UKR soldiers, which withdrew on other position. On 0:06 Wagner got the bullet directly in face and we have already second "200". In this moment grenade was dropped from Madyar's drone. Probably explosion inflicted light wounds to other two orcs, so they abandoned the trench and became withdrawing. Next drop - next wounded, one of them seriously. Temperature is -18, without evacuation wounded can die very quicly, probably the group got permission to withdraw, so they try to drag wiunded guy, but lot of obstacles and fallen tree branches hindered to do this. At the end of this episode we can see third killed, laying on the ground.

Part 4. (lower video)

Light wounded orcs spotted UAV and try to shot it down, but a sun blinds them. One evacuation group brought wounded wagnerites enough far, alsmost to own position, but drone drops next grenade on them - explosion and wounded got more injuries like and one his comrade. Next Madyar says he is not big fan of using of valuable drones as hunters for infantry, but in condition of big advantage of Russian arty in barrels and problems with in-time support from UKR arty, such bomblets turned out very useful because they often can foil attempt of assault of small group like you can see above

  

 

[Butschi]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Poles have risen to the moment. Scholz has had to dragged. 

I wouldn't begrudge Ukraine those Leos, mind you. But it is a bit naive to think that PiS does this solely to help Ukraine and not also to score with their supporters at the cost of German-Polish relations. It's not like this would be the first time and it will be understood as such.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Butschi

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Where are Ukraine's own tanks? And the hundreds they captured from Russia? At least 440 MBT captured according to Newsweek.

Have they been knocked out or broken down in large numbers or are they being held back in preparation for an offensive?

I'd think that at least they would send some to Bakhmut. Maybe not Western quality, but surely better than assaulting with HMMWs?

(Not arguing we should not send tanks - just wondering)

They are fighitng of course, and taking lossess- note that Oryx is not showing true casualties but only those registred. Ukrainians have hard time complementing their equipment for new units. From information one can collect from analitics here, which often base on guys repairing vehicles for Ukrainians in PL (ups...) a lot of the newer stuff they captured from Russians (which came in two batches, one large one after tide was pushed back in March and smaller after Izyum pocket) is already warn out. Due to lack of spare parts, ammo or barrells malfunctions- especially last problem reportedly become more and more pressing every month. Last days I heard info they try to 3D print some pieces for T-80's engines they regularly broke, but have no access to production line. There are also teams of mechanics now trying to register and cannibalize every Russian wreck on UA soil to check what they can take out of it- even smoked ones. Even small screws are in dire need. This is ancedotal evidence of course, but it  does not look like behaviour of the military that has large industrial potential.

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I do agree that deciding on a single set of platforms, and then sticking to that would be a good idea...but we kind already did.  Remember all that soviet-based equipment coming in from Eastern Europe?  Finally, we have reports of UA forces dismounting 1km away from its vehicles on the offence.  Is this because they have sub-standard vehicles, or just the realities that big hot metal on the battlefield in this environment is tricky to manage no matter what the version?

Soviet-made equipment is available in finished quantities that are drawing to an end in many respects, that's why decision to use Western tanks arise. It's probably kind of similar to howitzers- it's materiel war; if you wanna UA in game, they need hot iron just to replenish their stocks. Not mentioning offensive capabilities.

Also note we have many instances and clips pointing otherwise- of Ukrainians charging on IFV's like pixeltruppen in badly-played CM scenario, tankers claiming Russians have superior armour in most respects or tanks crawling so close to the enemy they could almost touch them, in order to score with first round. Is it because they are such daredevils or becuse they have no hopes of winning longer firefight with Muscovites? Again, we could read a lot of very different things from this patchwork of evidences we have here.

From what I read, at least several Ukrainian high commanders completed courses in USA (including Zaluzhny), so they could be theoretically aware of logiistical limitations for for example Bradley battalion.

Notes about optimalization of help for Ukraine are very on point, though. Frankly I doubt West have enough political coherence and clear-cut strategy for this, beside issue of material abilities to deliver. Because we talked a lot about big strategy for Russians, or rather lack of thereof...but what with the West? Things are getting better and more cooridnated with every new batch, but it seems Western leaders still are in the process of getting used to the though that Ukrainians can actually win. Unless it is this popular cynical image that is true that USA feeds UA with enough stuff to bleed, but not enough to win on purpose. I don't think it is entirely valid, but like many people I also struggle to understand why we constantly have this "nonono, maybe, yes yes" mentallity like some, sorry for primitive metaphor, virgin on her wedding night.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ukraine has thousands of APCs/IFVs

Mmmm? Where? If we had thousands of its, why, in this case, only two brigades from six, established in Dec 2014 became mechanized (on BMP), when other four - motorized (BTR/BMP in one comapny of battalion, rest on trucks). And why later these motorized brigades got BRDM-2L1 for 7-men squad, like herring in the barrel... And why in 2016-2017 we bought several dozens of former Сzech BMP-1AM?

Maybe you used Military Balance info, but they give total number of vehicles, not operational. Many of UKR armor was sold since 1991, but much more became a rusty trash. All what we could repair, all this was brought to service as far as before a war. And we continued to buy BMP-1 in other countries, but in small number.   

Edited January 11, 2023 by Haiduk

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Interestingly, it also echos the anecdotal accounts of local AFU tactical command lapses from that battle. When UKR has its Command poop together the Ivan makes no headway. When they fumble the ball the Russians have enough sense to pile in, exacerbating the issue. Then UKR High Elves come down, yell the humies into shape and AFU starts re-kicking Orc butt.

I suspect Soledar or adjacent will have one more surge attack (theres simply so many enemy numbers in the area) but that UKR has a clearer handle on things.

I dont think the situation is stable. Russian units have been advancing on the outskirts today. 

A video of 2 ambushed UA vehicles (French VAB btw) with crew killed in the streets was geolocated here

The fact that these vehicles got knocked out driving past Russians tells me this was not expected / communicated, an indicator that this area is not well defended, also that the Russians were just walking down the sidewalk sight-seeing.

Very close to the only road in and out as well. I think this M113 MedEvac video shows that this is not a place resupply trucks can go.

For reference this is the Russian location, spotted in Madyars video from todays morning:

Edited January 11, 2023 by Kraft

[Huba]

58 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I wouldn't begrudge Ukraine those Leos, mind you. But it is a bit naive to think that PiS does this solely to help Ukraine and not also to score with their supporters at the cost of German-Polish relations. It's not like this would be the first time and it will be understood as such.

Well, this situation is a free political capital, dropped on the sidewalk to be found and spend on advancing PiS agenda. And one of those rare situations where at the same  they act in the very interest of not only their party and the Polish state, but also the whole CEE at the same time. Looking for egoistic motives here is absolutely pointless - I'm not a PiS voter, but IMO they rose to the moment and are doing what any PL government should in this situationsituation - just with a smirk. 

Edited January 11, 2023 by Huba

[Butschi]

20 minutes ago, Huba said:

Well, this situation is a free political capital, dropped on the sidewalk to be found and spend on advancing PiS agenda. And one of those rare situations where at the same  they act in the very interest of not only their party and the Polish state, but also the whole CEE at the same time. Looking for egoistic motives here is absolutely pointless - I'm not a PiS voter, but IMO they rose to the moment and are doing what any PL government should in this situationsituation - just with a smirk. 

Ok, let me amend what I said. As far as I understand (German) media, the Polish government hasn't said "screw you Germans, we'll give the Leos to Ukraine whether you allow it or not." - in contrast to what some here wrote. Instead it was "Well, we'll deliver those Leos but you know the Germans have to give their ok first." That's still opportunistic and I think if it really was about actually getting Leos to Ukraine in numbers it your government would have made a combined statement with all countries willing to give their Leos to Ukraine. Still, like you say, kind of fair game, I guess.

[Jace11]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

his guy posts many inteersting videos, commenting it in very fanny manner - he uses a pointer to show orcs on the screen, which soon will be dead after grenade dropping or arty strike, so some western readers named him "Madyar - the Pointer of Doom"

Watching him for a week or two now. I like the name - 'Mr Pointy Stick Man' best (he has lots of names on western social media, Professor of Death is one). He's very matter of fact but he doesnt like worms

I've been watching way too much footage, I feel next to nothing, maybe only some pity when its mobiks getting wasted, but some footage today of ukr troops on the receiving end filled me with anger. I'm sure its unhealthy,  I need a break from it I think.

Edited January 11, 2023 by Jace11

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Mmmm? Where? If we had thousands of its, why, in this case, only two brigades from six, established in Dec 2014 became mechanized (on BMP), when other four - motorized (BTR/BMP in one comapny of battalion, rest on trucks). And why later these motorized brigades got BRDM-2L1 for 7-men squad, like herring in the barrel... And why in 2016-2017 we bought several dozens of former Сzech BMP-1AM?

Maybe you used Military Balance info, but they give total number of vehicles, not operational. Many of UKR armor was sold since 1991, but much more became a rusty trash. All what we could repair, all this was brought to service as far as before a war. And we continued to buy BMP-1 in other countries, but in small number.   

Well where they are exactly I am sure I do not know.  However:

Oryx says that the UA has captured almost 1000 AFV, IFVs and APC, and these are the ones they could count.  Not all of these would be operational, no idea what the recovery rate of captured Russian kit is.

Then we have the pre-war estimates:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1296573/russia-ukraine-military-comparison/#:~:text=Comparison of military capabilities of Russia and Ukraine 2022&text=Russia had approximately 1.35 million,to 500 thousand in Ukraine.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/europe/russia-ukraine-military-comparison-intl/index.html

https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=ukraine

According to wiki (sourcing stuff I cannot read) it shows the UA with 32 Mechanized Brigades, quite a few stood up in '22.  No idea what their actual operational strength is or is not, which is not surprising:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mechanized_Infantry_(Ukraine)

And to this add 6 tank Bdes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armoured_Forces_(Ukraine)

If you have better numbers would love to see them.

Buying BMPs is smart.  UA is setup to repair and support them in the field literally the next day.  We should be buy as many as we can and giving them over yesterday.  And then in parallel start building western formations based on a single vehicle set, not this gumbo that is happening. 

To  start that you would have to build in the logistical systems first and them pull the vehicles and crews on top of it.  If you don't do that, and NATO troops will not deploy into Ukraine (which they will not), it means that for second line maintenance and repairs you have to send the vehicle all the way back to Poland.  This will mean that like the M777s, quite a few are going to be out of battle quickly. This system would work but you would need triple the number of the actual numbers in the field.  So to keep 50 Bradleys in the field you would need 150 total to rotate back to Poland.  If the UA was set up to sustain them forward it would put a lot more vehicles closer to the front and keep them there.  But that will mean training and equipping logistical units etc.  Not a terrible idea but if one has the ability to buy 1000 BMPs or 100 Bradleys, go with the BMPs for now.  Bradleys when there is capacity and you have covered off the other essentials. 

 

[Beleg85]

31 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Ok, let me amend what I said. As far as I understand (German) media, the Polish government hasn't said "screw you Germans, we'll give the Leos to Ukraine whether you allow it or not." - in contrast to what some here wrote. Instead it was "Well, we'll deliver those Leos but you know the Germans have to give their ok first." That's still opportunistic and I think if it really was about actually getting Leos to Ukraine in numbers it your government would have made a combined statement with all countries willing to give their Leos to Ukraine. Still, like you say, kind of fair game, I guess.

All these moves should be read as preparations for coming security conference, in which pressure of public opinion will matter as strong leverage. Probably the same is with Bradleys, Strikes and so on- we will only know better afterwards.

On other note, a thred from Galleotti about latest rochades in Russian Highcommand:

 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

57 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Do you think a UKR team inside a Bradley would dismount an equivalent distance away? Then what's the point of all that gee-whizz armor protection and sensing, if a modern Western IFV is just as vulnerable as a 30 years old soviet POS?

Now that is the million (maybe billion dollar) question.  We do not know.  I am not sure what people believe as far as "gee-whiz" armor protecting sensing but last I checked landmines and optical guided ATGMs still worked.  Fancy western kit needs gas and parts - all hot and heavy on long logistical lines.  

You have asked the most terrifying question on the board right now, which can be distilled down to "Given the modern battlefield emerging in Ukraine, are our trillion dollars of defence investment as useless as 30 year old soviet POS?"  And the level of clucking, gasping and brandy spilling going on within higher military echelons is hilarious.  Facing an opponent with UAS/UGVs everywhere, ISR from the ground to space and armed with smart precision weapons...where will that leave us?

Now Russia is in bad shape.  They may be at the point where good old fashion conventional mass works.  But they also might not be. They have UAS and ISR. It is not comparative to the UA (with western support).  They also have a lot of anti-armor systems and artillery - again not as advanced or precise as Ukraine's.  The reality is that the error in logic is in the very argument:

- Ukraine has lost a lot of armor and AFVs and is down to HMMVS and MRAPs, we need to do something!

- Uh. ok.  Given that the UA had all the ISR in the world creating enormous advantage, how did they lose they armor they had?

 - Well the RA sux!

- Well yes they do, but apparently not enough to stop them from eroding the UA to the point they are down to MRAPs and HMMVs.  So how do we know that whatever method in which the RA did all that damage so far - to the point we need to send in 1000 Bradleys - is not going to work against the Bradley's we send in? 

- Cause they Rock...USA..USA! (Or insert the western nation of you choice)

- Um, ok.

We know most of the killing is being done by artillery.  RA artillery has attrited the UA fleet to the point is needs help.  Our vehicles are immune to artillery?  They are invisible to ISR? 

My point stands.  Your favorite CM platform is not going to make or break this war. Setting the UA for long term continued success along multiple lines of support - of which western equipment delivered in a coherent sustainable manner is but one - is going to be required for years.  They will get Bradleys and Marders and whatever.  But for now we need to keep an eye on the game changers that got us here and think carefully about the next steps.

[The_Capt]

45 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Soviet-made equipment is available in finished quantities that are drawing to an end in many respects, that's why decision to use Western tanks arise. It's probably kind of similar to howitzers- it's materiel war; if you wanna UA in game, they need hot iron just to replenish their stocks. Not mentioning offensive capabilities.

This is a very good point.  So this is part of strategic planning.  What are the globally available stocks of Soviet made equipment?  What kind of shape is Ukrainian in-country arms production?  If we are indeed headed for the bottom of the barrel, then a hard jump to western equipment is absolutely going to need to happen.  But that is a very large undertaking and not 40 Marders here, 50 Bradleys there and those freakin Leo2.  This is an entire fleet replacement, top to bottom done in phases. 

48 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

From what I read, at least several Ukrainian high commanders completed courses in USA (including Zaluzhny), so they could be theoretically aware of logiistical limitations for for example Bradley battalion.

I suspect this as well.  The UA has not been stupid in this war and the guys in charge know the score very well.  There is stop gap strategies and then long games, both are in play.  I strongly suspect that the current slow roll of western AFVs is not knocking knees of weak western politicians, it is likely coming from military advice both in the Ukraine and the West. 

[Kinophile]

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

[... ] , it is likely coming from military advice both in the Ukraine and the West. 

Bingo

Etc

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Butschi said:

Ok, let me amend what I said. As far as I understand (German) media, the Polish government hasn't said "screw you Germans, we'll give the Leos to Ukraine whether you allow it or not." - in contrast to what some here wrote. Instead it was "Well, we'll deliver those Leos but you know the Germans have to give their ok first." That's still opportunistic and I think if it really was about actually getting Leos to Ukraine in numbers it your government would have made a combined statement with all countries willing to give their Leos to Ukraine. Still, like you say, kind of fair game, I guess.

Poland has been 100% pro Ukraine from 90 seconds after the balloon went up. Scholz has tried every which way to avoid taking positions that would upset Moscow. It is very clear that the Polish governments position is a lot more popular in Poland than the German governments is in Germany. With an election coming up the Polish Government sees an obvious opportunity to do well while doing good. You have explained at some length that Scholz's position is driven by the internal politics of his party. Baerbock's visit to Kharkiv implies that it may no longer work for the parliamentary coalition that  made him Chancellor though.

 

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Well where they are exactly I am sure I do not know.  However:

Oryx says that the UA has captured almost 1000 AFV, IFVs and APC, and these are the ones they could count.  Not all of these would be operational, no idea what the recovery rate of captured Russian kit is.

Then we have the pre-war estimates:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1296573/russia-ukraine-military-comparison/#:~:text=Comparison of military capabilities of Russia and Ukraine 2022&text=Russia had approximately 1.35 million,to 500 thousand in Ukraine.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/25/europe/russia-ukraine-military-comparison-intl/index.html

https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=ukraine

According to wiki (sourcing stuff I cannot read) it shows the UA with 32 Mechanized Brigades, quite a few stood up in '22.  No idea what their actual operational strength is or is not, which is not surprising:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mechanized_Infantry_(Ukraine)

And to this add 6 tank Bdes:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armoured_Forces_(Ukraine)

If you have better numbers would love to see them.

Buying BMPs is smart.  UA is setup to repair and support them in the field literally the next day.  We should be buy as many as we can and giving them over yesterday.  And then in parallel start building western formations based on a single vehicle set, not this gumbo that is happening. 

To  start that you would have to build in the logistical systems first and them pull the vehicles and crews on top of it.  If you don't do that, and NATO troops will not deploy into Ukraine (which they will not), it means that for second line maintenance and repairs you have to send the vehicle all the way back to Poland.  This will mean that like the M777s, quite a few are going to be out of battle quickly. This system would work but you would need triple the number of the actual numbers in the field.  So to keep 50 Bradleys in the field you would need 150 total to rotate back to Poland.  If the UA was set up to sustain them forward it would put a lot more vehicles closer to the front and keep them there.  But that will mean training and equipping logistical units etc.  Not a terrible idea but if one has the ability to buy 1000 BMPs or 100 Bradleys, go with the BMPs for now.  Bradleys when there is capacity and you have covered off the other essentials. 

 

 

50 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Now that is the million (maybe billion dollar) question.  We do not know.  I am not sure what people believe as far as "gee-whiz" armor protecting sensing but last I checked landmines and optical guided ATGMs still worked.  Fancy western kit needs gas and parts - all hot and heavy on long logistical lines.  

You have asked the most terrifying question on the board right now, which can be distilled down to "Given the modern battlefield emerging in Ukraine, are our trillion dollars of defence investment as useless as 30 year old soviet POS?"  And the level of clucking, gasping and brandy spilling going on within higher military echelons is hilarious.  Facing an opponent with UAS/UGVs everywhere, ISR from the ground to space and armed with smart precision weapons...where will that leave us?

Now Russia is in bad shape.  They may be at the point where good old fashion conventional mass works.  But they also might not be. They have UAS and ISR. It is not comparative to the UA (with western support).  They also have a lot of anti-armor systems and artillery - again not as advanced or precise as Ukraine's.  The reality is that the error in logic is in the very argument:

- Ukraine has lost a lot of armor and AFVs and is down to HMMVS and MRAPs, we need to do something!

- Uh. ok.  Given that the UA had all the ISR in the world creating enormous advantage, how did they lose they armor they had?

 - Well the RA sux!

- Well yes they do, but apparently not enough to stop them from eroding the UA to the point they are down to MRAPs and HMMVs.  So how do we know that whatever method in which the RA did all that damage so far - to the point we need to send in 1000 Bradleys - is not going to work against the Bradley's we send in? 

- Cause they Rock...USA..USA! (Or insert the western nation of you choice)

- Um, ok.

We know most of the killing is being done by artillery.  RA artillery has attrited the UA fleet to the point is needs help.  Our vehicles are immune to artillery?  They are invisible to ISR? 

My point stands.  Your favorite CM platform is not going to make or break this war. Setting the UA for long term continued success along multiple lines of support - of which western equipment delivered in a coherent sustainable manner is but one - is going to be required for years.  They will get Bradleys and Marders and whatever.  But for now we need to keep an eye on the game changers that got us here and think carefully about the next steps.

 

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This is a very good point.  So this is part of strategic planning.  What are the globally available stocks of Soviet made equipment?  What kind of shape is Ukrainian in-country arms production?  If we are indeed headed for the bottom of the barrel, then a hard jump to western equipment is absolutely going to need to happen.  But that is a very large undertaking and not 40 Marders here, 50 Bradleys there and those freakin Leo2.  This is an entire fleet replacement, top to bottom done in phases. 

I suspect this as well.  The UA has not been stupid in this war and the guys in charge know the score very well.  There is stop gap strategies and then long games, both are in play.  I strongly suspect that the current slow roll of western AFVs is not knocking knees of weak western politicians, it is likely coming from military advice both in the Ukraine and the West. 

I am going to indulge in a little bit of speculation here. If you hate my speculations feel free to stop now. The Russians are provably lousy at maintaining there equipment, and until the war kicked off the Ukrainians were severely resource constrained.  I have a suspicion, and that is all it is. that a LOT of the captured Russian stuff, and more than a little of Ukraines own stock have all worn out the same one or two subsystems. whether that is some particular piece in the drive train or some other weak link. So Ukraine is looking at fields full of captured AFVs that it can't get moving because they all need the same bleeping part, whatever that part is. Something that hasn't been made outside of Russia for twenty five years, and maybe not in Russia for a decade or three either, at least in any quantity. Which would why all the Mobiks are on the shoe leather express. Pure speculation again, but perhaps attempts to get the weakest link manufactured new in say Czechoslovakia are not going well? So either vastly more effort has to go into fixing this supply chain issue for the Soviet stuff, or the NATO transition has to move along.

In terms of the tactical benefits of the Bradley's they are still eggshells armed with hammers. But they have much LONGER hammers that can see in the dark. How much does this matter? Well it looks like their is going to be a little test, and not just of the pixeltruppen variety. The extremely flat and open terrain around Melitipol , and Mariupol does seem like the place this would really help.

Edited January 12, 2023 by dan/california

[Huba]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

This is a very good point.  So this is part of strategic planning.  What are the globally available stocks of Soviet made equipment?  What kind of shape is Ukrainian in-country arms production?  If we are indeed headed for the bottom of the barrel, then a hard jump to western equipment is absolutely going to need to happen.  But that is a very large undertaking and not 40 Marders here, 50 Bradleys there and those freakin Leo2.  This is an entire fleet replacement, top to bottom done in phases. 

A very clear, to the point notion. So watching some analysis some days ago I heard a number of 5000 AFVs lost by RU in 2022 and an estimation of their potential at producing and restoring them in 2023 equaling 3000 vehicles. Assuming UA is 500 AFVs up from February, it means that to keep mchanized force ratio constant, they need an equivalent of 1500 RU vehicles delivered to them this year ( or better attrition ratio/ quality of said vehicles).

Assuming this analysis to be true, it allows us to judge how well we are doing in the materiel war.  At the moment we pledged a brigade worth of equipment of overall quality equal more or less to the newly produced RU vehicles. Assuming we'll be delivering  only the same quality, we need at least the same brigade per month to reinforce UA advantage in the crucial mechanized forces, other factors notwithstanding. 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Huba

[Butschi]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Poland has been 100% pro Ukraine from 90 seconds after the balloon went up. Scholz has tried every which way to avoid taking positions that would upset Moscow. It is very clear that the Polish governments position is a lot more popular in Poland than the German governments is in Germany. With an election coming up the Polish Government sees an obvious opportunity to do well while doing good. You have explained at some length that Scholz's position is driven by the internal politics of his party. Baerbock's visit to Kharkiv implies that it may no longer work for the parliamentary coalition that  made him Chancellor though.

Frankly, your "disliking" Scholz makes you a little blind for the actual facts. Scholz deserves a lot of criticism. But saying he tried everything to not upset Moscow is simply wrong. Germany did a lot to aid Ukraine, just often not in the way Ukraine wished and/or demanded. Of course Scholz is driven by party politics. As are Duda or Biden. Sadly, that's the way politics work. But in addition ~50% of the Germans are against giving Marders to Ukraine, even more are against giving Leos. So while that still doesn't make him most popular chancellor ever, his stance toward Ukraine has much popular support. The Greens have trouble of their own right now, as does the FDP, so none of the parties are likely to endanger the coalition right now.

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This is a very good point.  So this is part of strategic planning.  What are the globally available stocks of Soviet made equipment?  What kind of shape is Ukrainian in-country arms production?  If we are indeed headed for the bottom of the barrel, then a hard jump to western equipment is absolutely going to need to happen.  But that is a very large undertaking and not 40 Marders here, 50 Bradleys there and those freakin Leo2.  This is an entire fleet replacement, top to bottom done in phases. 

There are very different assessments as to how much stuff is left in terms of armour, including @Huba above (I think majority of T-91 are still in Poland being prepared, while some UA tankers are in the process of learning). We can only know it by the effects, thought- and these are that Ukrainians have problems with complementing new wave of brigades with decent equipment at sufficent level.
I frankly read new batch of Western stuff as a kind of political pledge- we invest in you, so if you do good you can watch for more. And morally it also has massive repercussions- one should watch Russian channels, they are from  enraged to desparate about the news. Many of new weapons have semi-mythical status, and this in turn heat up discurse in Russia. It's strong signal, no doubt about it.

They even phantasize about various creative ways how to stop Challengers...World of Tanks guys are very numerous in Russia and share their precious tactics.

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I suspect this as well.  The UA has not been stupid in this war and the guys in charge know the score very well.  There is stop gap strategies and then long games, both are in play.  I strongly suspect that the current slow roll of western AFVs is not knocking knees of weak western politicians, it is likely coming from military advice both in the Ukraine and the West. 

Well, then we again go down to our different interpretations of this pretty gloom Zaluzhny interview in which he specifically says they need much more heavy stuff to win offensives. It could be that it was Ukrainian PsyOps as well, can't exclude that of course.

Ok, one intruguing thing in this is- why do you think it is by military advice from Ukraine? I frankly had no seen evidence for it. On Westen militaries side- perhaps, there are undoubtedly many factions at Pentagon what to do with this hot potato. However public Atlantists military commentators like Hodges are very pursuing for as much delivery as possible (but this may be again political from their side or just sticking in old paradigms, admittedly).

 

Damn, another Krab destroyed...every single time these bloody Lancets. In this instance fire suppression systems saved at least most of the crew, during first hit:

 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

 

3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There are very different assessments as to how much stuff is left in terms of armour, including @Huba above (I think majority of T-91 are still in Poland being prepared, while some UA tankers are in the process of learning). We can only know it by the effects, thought- and these are that Ukrainians have problems with complementing new wave of brigades with decent equipment at sufficent level.
I frankly read new batch of Western stuff as a kind of political pledge- we invest in you, so if you do good you can watch for more. And morally it also has massive repercussions- one should watch Russian channels, they are from  enraged to desparate about the news.

They even phantasize about various creative ways how to stop Challengers...World of Tanks guys are very numerous in Russia and share their precious tactics.

Well, then we again go down to our different interpretations of this pretty gloom Zaluzhny interview in which he specifically says they need much more heavy stuff to win offensives. It could be that it was Ukrainian PsyOps as well, can't exclude that of course.

 

Damn, another Krab destroyed...every single time these bloody Lancets. In this instance fire suppression systems saved at least most of the crew, during first hit:

 

If we are sending Strykers, every SHORAD Stryker in inventory should be at the front of the line.

[Butschi]

26 minutes ago, Huba said:

we need at least the same brigade per month to reinforce UA

That's a lot... Can anyone give an estimate what production capacity NATO countries have right now, what the costs per brigade would be, etc?

[Butschi]

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

They even phantasize about various creative ways how to stop Challengers...World of Tanks guys are very numerous in Russia and share their precious tactics.

There is still no infantry in this super realistic game, right?

[Kinophile]

29 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Frankly, your "disliking" Scholz makes you a little blind for the actual facts. Scholz deserves a lot of criticism. But saying he tried everything to not upset Moscow is simply wrong. Germany did a lot to aid Ukraine, just often not in the way Ukraine wished and/or demanded. Of course Scholz is driven by party politics. As are Duda or Biden. Sadly, that's the way politics work. But in addition ~50% of the Germans are against giving Marders to Ukraine, even more are against giving Leos. So while that still doesn't make him most popular chancellor ever, his stance toward Ukraine has much popular support. The Greens have trouble of their own right now, as does the FDP, so none of the parties are likely to endanger the coalition right now.

But this, I think, is frankly what gets under everyones skin about Scholz. 

It's his slavish obsequsiouness to party politics and his avoidance of what many  expect of the leader of the largest country in EU -  moral leadership. 

I mean,  it's bloody ridiculous - Here is a tailor-made historical opportunity, a once in a generation chance to take the moral lead against an enemy that is an insanely similar mirror to Germany's terrible past, to finally put to bed the idea of continuing German guilt,  to bloody LEAD THE CONTINENT on a deeply righteous project and -  wtf is he doing? Fretting about voting margins? Dribbling Gepards to the Ukrainians?

Doesn't Scholz get it?  He could be the Greatest German of his Generation, outshine Merkel and put her Russian complacency to shame. And who did we get instead -  Boris Bloody Johnson?  Boris Johnson put the German Chancellor to shame? A Clown showed up the leader of Germany?! 

Sure,  polls etc show certain,  whatever.  Polls change and can be changed. . You can lead your nation with conviction and the polls will follow. You take a moral stand,  stating clear and unequivocal democratic principles and people will vote for you even though they don't like much else about you. 

But, GOD he's such a waste of space.Yet another bland, grey, moral rubberband of a politicker such that he cannot see the chance that is being provided him -  or worse, he sees it but balks out of fear, his own inadequacy or sheer spineless careerism. 

There is a gaping, Chancellor shaped hole in the middle of European leadership and this fool will never fill it. He doesn't have the wit, ethical gumption or intellectual depth to lead anything more than a domestic political party. 

I guess leading Europe is just beyond his ability. 

Such a depressing twat. 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Kinophile

[pintere]

On 1/10/2023 at 12:14 AM, Battlefront.com said:

OK, here's an intellectual game we've not played in a while!  What realistic options do people think Russia could pursue to achieve a better outcome than what it is doing now?  Keep in mind that regime preservation is the ultimate goal, so any strategic shift that puts the regime more at risk is not likely viable.

Steve

 

[LongLeftFlank]

15 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Damn, another Krab destroyed...every single time these bloody Lancets. In this instance fire suppression systems saved at least most of the crew, during first hit

So here I am again, wondering whether the next wave of counters to minidrone warfare world includes brobdignagian amounts of hi tech fabrics, whether it's kevlar/mylar cloaks over body armour or in this case, acres of nylon overhead nets, similar to the driftnets used (illegally, but don't tell the fish that) on Chinese supertrawlers.

Sure, cope cages are useless against top-attack shaped charge missile warheads; they probably make them more lethal.

....But these little Lancet-Switchblade things are basically upsized hand grenades, correct?  Pure HE charges?  So force and lethality drops by some exponent of distance (I'm a finance w@nk3r, not an engineer, somebody smarter please speak up).

So, nets, lots of nets?