How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

10 hours ago, JonS said:

You have tanks too. So, no need for those either?

Not enough. Neither tanks, nor especially IFVs and APCs. In that time, when hundreds of M113, older versions of M2 and Murders just stand useless under sky in that time when western politics 9 months are thinking will Russia nuke them for M2 and Leo or not. 

If West would give us weapon with the same zeal as it forced us to disarm in 90th for paper security guaranties...

Edited December 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[Taranis]

Quote

Russia continues to be supplied with Western electronics despite sanctions and export restrictions
A survey by Reuters in conjunction with the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK-based defense think tank based in London, details for the first time the global supply chain that continues to supply Russia with IT components and other Western electronics. The investigation identified a galaxy of obscure importers and exporters, such as Azu International, and revealed that shipments of semiconductors and other technologies continue to arrive in Russia from Hong Kong, Turkey, but also l Estonia, a member of the European Union.

Russia purchased at least $2.6 billion worth of computer and electronic components in the months following Western tech sanctions against its invasion of Ukraine, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing Russian customs documents the British news agency purchased from three commercial vendors. Semiconductors and other technologies arrived in Russia between April and October 31 via Hong Kong and Turkey – which did not join the export restrictions of the United States and the European Union – as well as Estonia. Some of the suppliers - including companies in Hong Kong and Turkey - have links to Russian nationals, according to a review of documents filed by the companies.

American companies, such as Intel, AMD and Texas Instruments, accounted for at least $777 million of imported products. Intel, AMD and Texas Instruments told Reuters they did not ship products to Russia in compliance with sanctions and export controls.

Reuters reported in August in a joint investigation with RUSI that mass-produced chips from Western companies, in many cases not subject to export restrictions, appeared inside missiles and weapons systems. weapons that the Russian army has deployed in Ukraine. The US Department of Commerce estimates that Russia's access to semiconductors has been reduced by almost 70% since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, a review of customs records "revealed that since the invasion the declared value of Russian semiconductor imports has, in fact, risen sharply," Reuters says.

According to RUSI, Russia has been scrambling to find new ways to secure access to Western microchips. Many components are sold through distributors operating in Asia, such as Hong Kong, which serves as a gateway for electronics for the Russian military or companies acting on its behalf.

The European Commission said it "takes EU circumvention very seriously, as it is a practice that can undermine the effectiveness of EU sanctions." The Kremlin and the Russian Industry and Trade Ministry did not respond to requests for comment from the British agency.

source : Le Monde

[Maciej Zwolinski]

7 hours ago, kevinkin said:

And the symbol of the Russian soldier today is not the heroic savior of Europe, as commemorated in Treptower Park in Berlin, where 80,000 Soviet soldiers were killed in the final battle against Hitler. Rather, it is a thug dragging a stolen toilet bowl or washing machine (revealing the profound poverty of the areas deep inside Russia from which Putin’s soldiers are mostly recruited).

Hang on, the Soviet soldier in 1945 Berlin was famously a thug riding a stolen bike and festooned with watches (I guess it was more difficult to carry away a washing machine on a bike than in a BTR). The fact that he unintentionally helped to save half of Europe for democracy does not change the above bit.

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

4.  In Iraq, while Allied forces didn't interdict the host populations as such, AQIZ and other insurgent forces ran out of willing recruits to replace those lost in 2003-2005. By 2008 the US was ambushing groups of inexperienced young volunteers crossing the deserts from the borders, as local tribesmen were no longer interested in fighting. In this case, the Allies focused on isolating and shrinking the pool of fervent jihadis.

And peace and tranquillity has ruled the region to this day…

[kevinkin]

 

40 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

the Soviet soldier in 1945 Berlin was famously a thug

I think the writer is saying that today, surrounded by media, acts are more visible and it will be impossible to commemorate the Russian soldier i.e. build statues and parks in their names. Perhaps today's Russian will see things as they are (doubt it) and not conveniently forgot how their boys behaved in this war and treat them like supermen as they did after WW2. Yeah, I had to read it again  Statures built from stolen toilets bowls and washing machines are not too glamorous and make a poor selfie backgrounds. 

Edited December 14, 2022 by kevinkin

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Not enough. Neither tanks, nor especially IFVs and APCs. In that time, when hundreds of M113, older versions of M2 and Murders just stand useless under sky in that time when western politics 9 months are thinking will Russia nuke them for M2 and Leo or not. 

If West would give us weapon with the same zeal as it forced us to disarm in 90th for paper security guaranties...

Oh goodie, another war with a begrudging and resentful partner we are supposed to arm to the teeth, be continuously told we suck and are doing it wrong, and then enjoy the post war sh#t show as we have to sink billions more into a resentful nation to keep it propped up.

Seriously man, we get the frustration but why not follow the lead from your political leadership and offer a simple “thank you” now and again?

[Taranis]

Interesting video about reports of "Lesson learned by russians" since the beginning of the war:
Lesson 1: There is No Sanctuary
Lesson 2: Slack Capacity
Lesson 3: Drones for everyone
Lesson 4: Precision
Lesson 5: Disperse, Dig Deep or Move Fast
Looting
 

The link of the report of RUSI :
https://static.rusi.org/359-SR-Ukraine-Preliminary-Lessons-Feb-July-2022-web-final.pdf

[_Morpheus_]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh goodie, another war with a begrudging and resentful partner we are supposed to arm to the teeth, be continuously told we suck and are doing it wrong, and then enjoy the post war sh#t show as we have to sink billions more into a resentful nation to keep it propped up.

Just curious, what is the name of  `another war` and who was `begrudging and resentful partner` ?

[FancyCat]

 

 

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, dan/california said:

I would humbly submit that Ukraine winning faster is the lowest risk, lowest cost scenario. We have discussed endlessly what would help Ukraine the most, But the simplest answer might be taking the small risk of depleting our artillery, both guns and ammo more than doctrine theoretically allows. And another 200 tubes would move this thing right along.

I agree with the first part - a quick end, followed by a quick retirement of Putin may just seal this thing off.  That is a solid strategic end.

Problem is how people are linking Ways and Means to this.  Giving the UA another 200 tubes of artillery assumes they can generate quality crews to man then, logistics to maintain and support them, and C4ISR to integrate them.  This is the problem with the “steel mountain strategy” - which is right next to the “magic bullet” strategy - it does not take into account force generation and sustainment, let alone operational integration challenges.  

People are convinced if we gave the UA a division worth of M1s, Leo 2s, or whatever that this thing would be over next week.  Do any of you know how long it takes to create an modern armoured division with a whole new fleet of vehicles?  It takes us years. Now then UA is under pressure so they will accelerate it but Ukraines military force generation is pretty fragile right now. They are still sending troops to be trained in foreign countries. Getting up to speed on how to fight and sustain M1s is not a job done in a long weekend. In fact if we had sent them on 25 Feb, I am not convinced they would be ready for prime time right now.  The FCS requirements alone are pretty intense.  

Maybe this is a byproduct of a forum full of tactical war gamers who only see the last hour - they have very little idea of the months and years of work it takes to get that last hour to happen.

The only way to get 200 tubes of anything shooting effectively and sustaining that, quickly, is if we do it ourselves and that is a non-starter.  You will notice that the west has largely been sending the equipment that is easiest to set up and employ.  We have reports of the guns we sent with 1/3 out of battle rates - this is not because these guns suck, it is because keeping guns in continuous action is really hard and doing it with crews who had to learn then thing very fast, used them hard and have no real logistics system to support them.  

So what? Keep it simple, stupid. Double down on what is working.  Ramp up where we can. The West only has so much tolerance for investment in this war - we need to keep it focused and on point.  

[_Morpheus_]

 

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said:

Just curious, what is the name of  `another war` and who was `begrudging and resentful partner` ?

Well we can start with places like the Balkans, East Timor, Mail and Nigeria - hell pick a spot in the MENA and we have been through this at some level.  The big ones are Iraq and Afghanistan of course - we actually had the ANA killing us in that one and we all know how it ended last summer.  

In fact pretty much all of our interventions over the last 30 years led us down this road - probably why the US public are really getting sick of them.  “Oh wait, these are all the US’s fault!”  Sure, everything is in some camps. And the west had nothing better to but go halfway around the world to try and stop someone else’s wars getting its young men killed in the process.

I do not believe the Ukrainian government actually believes in the sentiments being expressed here by some but you can see how it’s gets pretty frustrating.

 

[_Morpheus_]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well we can start with places like the Balkans, East Timor, Mail and Nigeria - hell pick a spot in the MENA and we have been through this at some level.  The big ones are Iraq and Afghanistan of course - we actually had the ANA killing us in that one and we all know how it ended last summer.  

In fact pretty much all of our interventions over the last 30 years led us down this road - probably why the US public are really getting sick of them.  “Oh wait, these are all the US’s fault!”  Sure, everything is in some camps. And the west had nothing better to but go halfway around the world to try and stop someone else’s wars getting its young men killed in the process.

I do not believe the Ukrainian government actually believes in the sentiments being expressed here by some but you can see how it’s gets pretty frustrating.

 

Thank you for your opinion. Much appreciated.

I got the point, but from my point of view, there is some big differences:
* all this wars - it was NATO vs somebody. This `somebody` can not stand even close to the russian millitary force. The same applies to Ukraine compared to the NATO. 
* NATO is not involved in the current war, so NATO soldiers are not dying like it was in other wars.
Huge respect to the foreigners who join Ukrainian International Legion but this is a bit different.

so from my point of view it's not really comparable with `other` wars that you mention.

Quote

“Oh wait, these are all the US’s fault!”

I and most of the Ukrainians would disagree with this statement


 

[Billy Ringo]

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

  Normal has left the building.

Truth.

Which means we must challenge or at least question every prior assumption based on history and experience.  The exponential advancements in technology, international commerce, communication, media/information access and proliferation, etc. since the last major war 50+ years ago changes virtually everything.

Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, Normal has left the Building.

 

[Baneman]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Oh goodie, another war with a begrudging and resentful partner we are supposed to arm to the teeth, be continuously told we suck and are doing it wrong, and then enjoy the post war sh#t show as we have to sink billions more into a resentful nation to keep it propped up.

Seriously man, we get the frustration but why not follow the lead from your political leadership and offer a simple “thank you” now and again?

To be fair, in 10+ months, Haiduk has almost never "bubbled over", I think we could cut him (and others) a wee bit more slack. 

 

Really, we should all do that with each other - sure we all have different opinions and that can lead to arguing, but we're all on the same side, so we should take a few deep breaths and try not to get irked at disagreement, rather than reaching for the ignore button. 

[The_Capt]

24 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said:

* NATO is not involved in the current war, so NATO soldiers are not dying like it was in other wars.

Seriously? 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

 And this does not even start to take into account training assistance or ISR support.  If NATO nations were not involved in this war Ukraine would be a annexed province in the Russian Federation and we would be supporting resistance where we could.  We are very involved in this war right now and if we do not stay involved in the post-war all this money and dying will be for nothing.

[FancyCat]

Kosovo loves the west and the U.S in particular. I guess if we are looking for Western interventions where people like that it occurred, that would count.

[FancyCat]

 

[womble]

21 minutes ago, Baneman said:

Really, we should all do that with each other - sure we all have different opinions and that can lead to arguing, but we're all on the same side, so we should take a few deep breaths and try not to get irked at disagreement, rather than reaching for the ignore button. 

And remember leave some slack for language barriers, too (which extend way past simple vocabulary differences into modes of expression).

[Taranis]

"In the gardens of Saint Sophia Cathedral, soldiers rehearse a military ceremony on December 13, 2022 in kyiv (Ukraine). GUILLAUME HERBAUT/VU’ FOR “LE MONDE”"


"During the funeral ceremony. GUILLAUME HERBAUT/VU’ FOR “LE MONDE”"

*Very interesting for uniform enthusiasts. This is a jacket from the French FELIN uniform. It is one of the models used by the French army. This is a T3 SAGEM DS jacket. We had the same in Afghanistan. Currently deployed in the regiments is the T4 it seems to me, which has two buttons on each bottom pocket. It would therefore perhaps be an emptying of the French stock of "slightly older" jackets.

Note: the French do not wear belts above the jacket. You can notice the square velcro on the chest which is the typical French army velcro where you put the rank.

Edited December 14, 2022 by Taranis

[FancyCat]

I do want to warn that Ukrainian self-censorship and clampdown on information is in full swing, so while everything may be sort of rosy on the outside, we have no idea internally how bad or near exhausted the supply situation is, so we might be able to say "Russia is on the ropes", but certainly Ukraine will not broadcast the same. Something to consider. Ukraine won't be broadcasting that their supply of Soviet era tanks or IFVs is almost spent, and their begging for 155mm was pure final desperation before exhausting the stocks.

[Seedorf81]

I once heard a young woman say something like this:

"It isn't that difficult to keep a boyfriend/husband happy. Men are stupid, give them sex once in a while and - maybe as important - tell 'm they're doing a good job. DO NOT START NAGGING, but give them compliments and they'll do everything for you and won't leave. It is THAT simple."

I think that she said some wise words, and that her words (ehm, except for the sex-part) apply for "NATO/The West".

So for those who feel that the NATO/The West does not enough for Ukraine, read her words again. Might be helpful..

Edited December 14, 2022 by Seedorf81

[Sojourner]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Seriously? 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_foreign_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

 And this does not even start to take into account training assistance or ISR support.  If NATO nations were not involved in this war Ukraine would be a annexed province in the Russian Federation and we would be supporting resistance where we could.  We are very involved in this war right now and if we do not stay involved in the post-war all this money and dying will be for nothing.

Nope, don’t see  NATO on that list. NATO member countries, yes, but not NATO.

I did see the EU though, in addition to EU member countries. It Looks like LEGO has contributed more to the Ukrainian war effort than NATO.

[Bulletpoint]

6 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I do want to warn that Ukrainian self-censorship and clampdown on information is in full swing, so while everything may be sort of rosy on the outside, we have no idea internally how bad or near exhausted the supply situation is, so we might be able to say "Russia is on the ropes", but certainly Ukraine will not broadcast the same. Something to consider. Ukraine won't be broadcasting that their supply of Soviet era tanks or IFVs is almost spent, and their begging for 155mm was pure final desperation before exhausting the stocks.

True. I also think that Ukraine is probably much better at playing the media game, much better at coordinating filming every success they have, and better at spreading the videos online. So there's likely a big bias in what we see.

Nothing that changes the big picture of course. At the end of the day, the frontline has been moving for a reason. But the image of an always strong and clever Ukraine against a completely ridiculous bumbling Russia is probably a bit unnuanced.

[Zeleban]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Oh goodie, another war with a begrudging and resentful partner we are supposed to arm to the teeth, be continuously told we suck and are doing it wrong, and then enjoy the post war sh#t show as we have to sink billions more into a resentful nation to keep it propped up.

Seriously man, we get the frustration but why not follow the lead from your political leadership and offer a simple “thank you” now and again?

 

Hey, as far as I remember, the US, like Germany, has no legal obligations to Ukraine, right?

 

 

These groans of lamentations of Ukrainians are so tiring. I understand you and I'm very sorry that you have to listen to this from us. My condolences.

Perhaps Gaiduk is referring to Ukraine's nuclear arsenal in the 1990s, which we graciously destroyed in exchange for security assurances. What do you think, if Ukraine still had nuclear weapons, would we be witnesses of current events?