How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I'm not inclined to think of war crimes as degrading the cohesion of the RUA, because Russian society as a whole considers violence against Ukrainians acceptable in ways that against Russians would be utterly unacceptable. The notion of Ukrainian Otherness permeates Russian social structures from top to bottom, with the Russian army being nothing but the organized, sanctioned and overt expression of "defensive" violence against that "offensive" concept.

Part of the RUS Army's reason for existence is defending against Outsiders, against Others, so force cohesion is not affected by violence against Others in any shape or form. It's part of what the Russian army is, not even its "Way of War", but it's very nature as an expression of a fascist government. War crimes against Ukrainians are a function of that nature, that ideology, not a corrosion of the military force.

Violence against Ukrainians as the Other is the purpose of the Russian Army.

Well violence against the Other is the purpose of almost every military, it is the form, structure and regulations of that violence that is the issue.

While it is clearly possible for a social culture framework to be constructed to be supportive of brutal violence against Others - history is literally filled with such examples, I am not sure as to what level it exists within Russia itself.  There has been historical evidence (eg mass rape in occupied Germany) and contemporary evidence. However there is also counter-evidence such as mass exodus, particularly of the highly educated.  Further as has been expounded upon here on this forum Russian society is not homogeneous, so we may have a social dynamic as acceptable with some sections but less so in others.

I am also pretty sure that few are capable of an objective analysis of Russian society given the events of the last 8 month - internally or externally.  It is likely going to need further study once the war is over.

As to the effects of war crimes on the RA, I still argue the social dimension is unknown.  Obviously Russia is not some blissful peace loving nation and now it’s troops have gone all medieval.  However, Russian society as a whole is likely also not employing 10th century calculus to the problem either or we would be seeing much worse.  From a military dimension the effects of unregulated war crimes are likely akin to corruption itself, cumulative.  The logic of corruption gets pretty “anti-cohesive” pretty fast - “well the Col is screwing the Gen, so we can screw him over too”.  War crimes and overt brutality can be just as corrosive if they are pursued for individual interests over collective interests outside of a structured framework.

Beyond the question of military cohesion, war crimes are also highly counter productive in accomplishing military objectives themselves. The damage in the larger justifying-war narratives, the increased resistance effect on an opponent, waste of resources and the severe hit to credibility for any future negotiations is incredibly damaging to actually winning a war.  In this war they also translate directly into western support, and as upside down as the political level is in Russia they realize this as demonstrated by the ridiculous denial efforts.  No matter how hard it tries Russia cannot exist in its own bubble in 2022, and they know it.

In the end I suspect the overall effect of war criminality within the RA has not been a net positive - how much is a big unknown.  Externally their behaviour has been a complete disaster.  We are talking a UNSC member, P5 and G20 continually violating international laws of war - on a near daily basis.  A few anomalies are tolerated, so long as efforts are demonstrated to correct - what we are seeing from the RA in Ukraine is going to cost Russia dearly for decades. I suspect they will be on the bench next to North Korea for at least a couple generations at this rate - if they do not simply fall apart.

Edited November 24, 2022 by The_Capt

[danfrodo]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Two possible reasons.  First, it is probably nearly impossible to get a washing machine in Russia these days thanks to sanctions.  And if you can, it's probably way more money than the mobiks could cobble together.  The second reason is it's not traceable.  This is why corrupt cops often go for bribes that involve fancy watches, cars, boats, and other things.  Cash is nice, but cash can cause trouble.

Steve

Ah, I see now.  Russia is simply misunderstood.  Russians have a commendable yet somewhat excessive obsession with hygiene, which drove them to this completely understandable course of action because Ukraine had refused to share its excess of laundry facilities, which soiled what had been peaceful relations between good friends.  Ukraine purposely purchased all the washing machines on the market to deprive Russians of clean clothing, which sent these poor, misunderstood, innocent, peaceful folk to finally stand up against this stain of tyranny!  So Russia was the victim here after all! 

Mearshimer et al were right -- this is all due to  Ukraine's perfidy!

[kevinkin]

At this point the conscripts might just take some printed money with Putin's image as compensation. Traceable right down the latrine after use. 

  

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

So Russia was the victim here after all! 

Dude, seriously take a day off for your mental health.  You are starting to take some is this to what looks like an unhealthy level.*

I mean a half dozen RA soldiers may have gotten clipped during a possible-but-yet-to-be-investigated unrighteous shoot - and suddenly Steve himself is becoming a Russian appeaser?!  Like, seriously point to the sky for me because you sound like you are in a tailspin. 

*Edit - unless you were joking?  Hard to tell to be honest.

Edited November 24, 2022 by The_Capt

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Dude, seriously take a day off for your mental health.  You are starting to take some is this to what looks like an unhealthy level.

I mean a half dozen RA soldiers may have gotten clipped during a possible-but-yet-to-be-investigated unrighteous shoot - and suddenly Steve himself is becoming a Russian appeaser?!  Like, seriously point to the sky for me because you sound like you are in a tailspin. 

Pretty sure he was joking, the joke just didn't quite work. Thanksgiving day in the U.S., it can be a little overwhelming.

 

[danfrodo]

41 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Dude, seriously take a day off for your mental health.  You are starting to take some is this to what looks like an unhealthy level.*

I mean a half dozen RA soldiers may have gotten clipped during a possible-but-yet-to-be-investigated unrighteous shoot - and suddenly Steve himself is becoming a Russian appeaser?!  Like, seriously point to the sky for me because you sound like you are in a tailspin. 

*Edit - unless you were joking?  Hard to tell to be honest.

DUDE --  I think you are looking for things that aren't there.  The entire post is a joke -- how is that not obvious????  I said that RU simply wants clean clothes based on their deep desire for good hygeine.  UKR twarted that completely innocent desire by hoarding all the washing machines.  A joke based off the colonel that demaned washing machine as bribe.  If the folks on the forum actually think that was a serious post, I'll delete but I thought the level of absurdity made it obvious as parody.

The other half of the joke was a commentary on the levels of absurdity that the tankies use to excuse RU genocidal war. 

But worst of all, and quite devastating to me, is that DanCA didnt' think it was funny.

Edited November 24, 2022 by danfrodo
addition

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Pretty sure he was joking, the joke just didn't quite work. Thanksgiving day in the U.S., it can be a little overwhelming.

 

Yes, your weird version of the holiday is bound to drive anyone nuts.  I mean seriously...on a Thurs?  I mean if you want a super-weekend just do Fri and Mon like a proper Catholic Easter and be done with it. 

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

DUDE --  I think you are looking for things that aren't there.  The entire post is a joke -- how is that not obvious????  I said that RU simply wants clean clothes based on their deep desire for good hygeine.  UKR twarted that completely innocent desire by hoarding all the washing machines.  A joke based off the colonel that demaned washing machine as bribe.  If the folks on the forum actually think that was a serious post, I'll delete but I thought the level of absurdity made it obvious as parody.

The other half of the joke was a commentary on the levels of absurdity that the tankies use to excuse RU genocidal war. 

But worst of all, and quite devastating to me, is that DanCA didnt' think it was funny.

Too soon man, too soon.  I am not sure jokes that end in "Russia was the victim all along" & "this is due to Ukrainian perfidy" are ready for prime time just yet. 

After a few days of "lets all stare and debate war crimes" kinda took the shine off for me.

I guess I missed the punchline...my bad.  Apologies all around.

 

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

DUDE --  I think you are looking for things that aren't there.  The entire post is a joke -- how is that not obvious????  I said that RU simply wants clean clothes based on their deep desire for good hygeine.  UKR twarted that completely innocent desire by hoarding all the washing machines.  A joke based off the colonel that demaned washing machine as bribe.  If the folks on the forum actually think that was a serious post, I'll delete but I thought the level of absurdity made it obvious as parody.

The other half of the joke was a commentary on the levels of absurdity that the tankies use to excuse RU genocidal war. 

But worst of all, and quite devastating to me, is that DanCA didnt' think it was funny.

 

A couple of emojis would have fixed the whole thing...

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

A couple of emojis would have fixed the whole thing...

Emjois are the Devil’s work and future generations will look upon them in shame.  I would rather a thousand misunderstandings than suffer the corrosive effect of those damnable little cartoons on the written word. 

They are the Peng Thread of modern communication and I feel so dirty that I even I have fallen under their insipid little siren song in my weaker moments.  They have the clear golden tones of a Taylor Swift song, complete with mind earwig effect that works its way into your cerebral cortex in order to erase you, and put a vapid empty flesh-vessel in your place.

If religion was the opiate of the masses in previous centuries the Church of those little round headed dead-eyed bastards is designed to keep us asleep far better than the Holy Trinity ever could.

 

  

 

Edited November 25, 2022 by The_Capt

[Haiduk]

Despite AD shot down 51 missiles yesterday, Russians could hit some critical objects, which caused emergency halt of all nuclear power plants, except Chornobyl as well as most of thermal and hydro plants. Almost whole country in a darkness. Very tough situation in Kyiv. Since 15-00 yesterday 80 % in the city hadn't electricity, water, somewhere even gas, no heating, cell phone internet was almost dead. 

Today electricity turned on from 5-00 to 9-30 of morning and then gone again. Water apperared after 14-00. Still no heating. Internet much better, but this forum loaded only now. Very interesting quest how to heat a can of soup with dry spiritus tablet ))) -we have electric stove and it's now "out of action"

Reportedly nuclear plants have been launching to work this evening, but they can get own normal output only to next day of more. Now power grid has 50% defficite of energy

Edited November 24, 2022 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Despite AD shot down 51 missiles yesterday, Russians could hit some critical objects, which caused emergency halt of all nuclear power plants, except Chornobyl as well as most of thermal and hydro plants. Almost whole country in a darkness. Very tough situation in Kyiv. Since 15-00 yesterday 80 % in the city hadn't electricity, water, somewhere even gas, no heating, cell phone internet was almost dead. 

Today electricity turned on from 5-00 to 9-30 of morning and then gone again. Water apperared after 14-00. Still no heating. Internet much better, but this forum loaded only now. Very interesting quest how to heat a can of soup with dry spiritus tablet )))

Reportedly nuclear plants have been launching to work this evening, but they can get own normal output only to next day of more. Now power grid has 50% defficite of energy

So sorry for you & your fellow citizens.  Ongoing war crime.  Makes my blood boil and I'm not even there.  I hope Putin pays for this with his life, and soon.

[Zeleban]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Despite AD shot down 51 missiles yesterday, Russians could hit some critical objects, which caused emergency halt of all nuclear power plants, except Chornobyl as well as most of thermal and hydro plants. Almost whole country in a darkness. Very tough situation in Kyiv. Since 15-00 yesterday 80 % in the city hadn't electricity, water, somewhere even gas, no heating, cell phone internet was almost dead. 

Today electricity turned on from 5-00 to 9-30 of morning and then gone again. Water apperared after 14-00. Still no heating. Internet much better, but this forum loaded only now. Very interesting quest how to heat a can of soup with dry spiritus tablet )))

Reportedly nuclear plants have been launching to work this evening, but they can get own normal output only to next day of more. Now power grid has 50% defficite of energy

In Irpen, the situation is easier. Yesterday there was no electricity for about 5 hours, after which there was electricity all night (I worked all night). Today the electricity was only two hours, and now after 21.00 again appeared. Fortunately, I have autonomous heating and I am independent from city boiler houses.

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

In Irpen, the situation is easier. Yesterday there was no electricity for about 5 hours, after which there was electricity all night (I worked all night). Today the electricity was only two hours, and now after 21.00 again appeared. Fortunately, I have autonomous heating and I am independent from city boiler houses.

Bourgeoises )

[Maquisard manqué]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63746304
 

I can’t imagine how hard it is to live under the bombs with the cold and winter starting. I hope the Eu and US resolve remains strong and support is provided for the civilian population as much as the Ukrainian army.

[JonS]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Emjois are the Devils work and future generations will look upon them in shame.  I would rather a thousand misunderstandings than suffer the corrosive effect of those demandable little cartoons on the written word. 

They are the Peng Thread of modern communication and I feel so dirty that I even I have fallen under their insipid little siren song in my weaker moments.  They have the clear golden tones of a Taylor Swift song, complete with mind earwig effect that works its way into your cerebral cortex in order to erase you, and put a vapid empty flesh-vessel in your place.

If religion was the opiate of the masses in previous centuries the Church of those little round headed dead-eyed bastards is designed to keep us asleep far better than the Holy Trinity ever could.

I'll put you down as "ambivalent" then.

Edit:

Edited November 24, 2022 by JonS

[Fenris]

Nothing of great value, just an interesting little story.

 

[poesel]

Luka precludes the use of the Belarusian army in this war. But of course he stands on the side of Putin... No surprises here, but still astonishing how Luka managed to weasel through this again.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/belarus-alexander-lukaschenko-schliesst-einsatz-seiner-armee-gegen-die-ukraine-aus-a-948b93f5-a17f-45f8-9d0f-dfa3c5741336

[Huba]

Video in this tweet shows drone dropping grenade at a bunch of russian soldiers cowering in a dugout. Not very graphic, but be warned. Theiner might be right that they are suffering severe hypothermia - or are just wounded, shellshocked or under heavy fire. Nonetheless, their apparent apathy is quite strange.

 

Edited November 24, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

59 minutes ago, Huba said:

Video in this tweet shows drone dropping grenade at a bunch of russian soldiers cowering in a dugout. Not very graphic, but be warned. Theiner might be right that they are suffering severe hypothermia - or are just wounded, shellshocked or under heavy fire. Nonetheless, their apparent apathy is quite strange.

 

And it isn't December yet. The Russians will have tens of thousands of weather/environmental casualties by mid January.

[JonS]

'Fight' or 'flight' are the two reactions to intense survival situations that everyone immediately thinks of, with 'fight' naturally being what everyone assumes their own reaction will be /rolleyes

But along with those two there is 'freeze'. Adopting a freeze response doesnt require being "drugged or drunk" /rolleyes or to be suffering from hypothermia /rolleyes

It's one of the normal responses to hyper arousal, aka. acute stress.

Edited November 25, 2022 by JonS

[acrashb]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Emjois are the Devil’s work and future generations will look upon them in shame. 

 

Breaking my vow of silence, you are wrong, as was Mr. Peng on the same subject.  In earlier, simpler times we called them emoticons:

The "Guest aaronb" ... that was me.

[dan/california]

 

[dan/california]

https://www.leonardodrs.com/what-we-do/products-and-services/m-shorad/

Army is taking delivery of these. They need to ship to Ukraine direct from the factory.

[Taranis]

"A Ukrainian soldier in a captured Russian tank on the front line in the Donetsk region, November 22, 2022. LIBKOS / AP"
*T-80BV/BVM


"In the Bakhmout region, November 23, 2022. LAURENT VAN DER STOCKT FOR "LE MONDE""
* BM-21