How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

what is going on?

Very strange rumor mill

 

About "Oleshky liberation from town mayor", the  reaction of UKR Twitter was in style "the dude really drunk". About Hola Prystan' (means in English "bare pier") there was info from locals two days ago that Russians were leaving the town, but this is RUMINT level.

Edited November 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

what is going on?

Very strange rumor mill

 

As stated earlier by one who knows his WWII history, the Soviets kept establishing bridgeheads across rivers where the Germans had just crossed in retreat. Always keep the defense off balance and deny a secure new line. The ZSU obviously are very well aware of this. If the units in the region still have sustainable combat power remaining, we ought not to be surprised by any attempts to deny the Russians from solidifying another strong Kherson oblast defense. Bigger picture of “To what end?”: eliminating the land bridge, dividing Russian forces. Maintaining momentum, initiative.

Or, just good propaganda!

[Haiduk]

New puzzle, tied with Kinburn peninsula )

Edited November 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, NamEndedAllen said:

As stated earlier by one who knows his WWII history, the Soviets kept establishing bridgeheads across rivers where the Germans had just crossed in retreat. Always keep the defense off balance and deny a secure new line. The ZSU obviously are very well aware of this. If the units in the region still have sustainable combat power remaining, we ought not to be surprised by any attempts to deny the Russians from solidifying another strong Kherson oblast defense. Bigger picture of “To what end?”: eliminating the land bridge, dividing Russian forces. Maintaining momentum, initiative.

Or, just good propaganda!

The WILDLY optimistic angle is that it ~60 miles from there to Crimean choke point. Taking that would all but win the war. Not saying the can DO it. Even a decent attempt might force the Russians to make a weak spot somewhere else to stop them. Multiple indications the Ukrainians want to keep pushing while the pushing is good.

 

[Haiduk]

WarMonitor mostly is not enough reliable source about 50/50. There is opinion that this account belongs to UKR young milblogger Miroshnichenko, who posts excessivly optimistic and "victorious" news and "insides". For Ukrainian audience he writes on own TG channel and in Twitter aka Vasyl Stus:  https://twitter.com/v_stus

Allegedly WarMonitor is his account for Western audience. 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[Bulletpoint]

5 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Russian anti-tank triangles against infantry fighting vehicles

Maybe the video stopped there so we wouldn't see the thrown track...

[LongLeftFlank]

 

 

 

[Zeleban]

 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

WarMonitor mostly is not enogh reliable source about 50/50. There is opinion that this account belongs to UKR young milblogger Miroshnichenko, who posts excessivly optimistic and "victorious" news and "insides". For Ukrainian audience he writes on own TG channel and in Twitter aka Vasyl Stus:  https://twitter.com/v_stus

Allegedly WarMonitor is his account for Western audience. 

He is clearly an optimist. But sometimes he makes good maps. And he clearly spends a ton of time reading Russian Telegram channels. Which is useful when Ukraine has discovered the news blackout. I wouldn't move a brigade based on his info. 

What is your opinion of Noel?

Also is that machine gun on the far right older than I am?

 

[Zeleban]

 

[akd]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

He is clearly an optimist. But sometimes he makes good maps. And he clearly spends a ton of time reading Russian Telegram channels. Which is useful when Ukraine has discovered the news blackout. I wouldn't move a brigade based on his info. 

What is your opinion of Noel?

Also is that machine gun on the far right older than I am?

 

PKT modified for infantry use.

[Haiduk]

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

What is your opinion of Noel?

He is more realistic )

But with Mayorsk here is other geolocation, showing that photo was taken on eastern outskirt. 

Also this is Ukrainian soldier, fighting around this place, which also refutes enemy claims, showing how to look road signs with the name of the village on the exit to Toretsk (strictly speaking, this is large railroad station Mayorska with small settlement of railway workers, which hasn't status of settlement and is a part of Horlivka agglomeration)

 

[Haiduk]

Today's claimed strikes on Russian ammo dumps and troops concentrations:

Hola Prystan' - about 7-8 hpurs ago

Skadovsk town area - about hour ago - detonatins heard

Novooleksiivka, about hour ago, detonations and strong fire

 

[FancyCat]

I wonder if this might dent African government and public support for Russia? Russia has been focused on swaying non-Western opinion with good success but this may erode a bit and make it easier for Ukrainian inroads.

 

[NamEndedAllen]

42 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

 

 

In the so far successful efforts to keep Russian terrorist invaders off balance, AND to secure another critical junction here, the noise coming out of Kherson and the Mykolaiv Oblasts could serve as “confusion to our enemies”. Delaying some of the intended deployments away from Kherson. Odds are that no matter what is going on, the Ukrainian military planners had not stopped their work with the Kherson victory. It would be only a step towards accomplishing further efforts.  Which are unfolding as planned in at least one of their scenarios.

[FancyCat]

Does Ukraine control the dam? I ask cause it's one thing to flood the Russian defensive line, another thing to flood multiple Ukrainian bridgeheads.

[Haiduk]

Other hints about Kinburn (this guy from Kryvyi Rih has been posting mosltly reliable RUMINT)

Translation: I found out information from loacal familar concerning Hola Prystan' and Nova Zburyivka. I keep my mouth shut up (in real he used filthy word )

PS. About quiz with a picture of grape - turned out that meant tiny village Vynohradne with 24 people of population ("grape" in UKR is "vynohrad") - Google maps depicts it on maximum zoom grape

PPS. Sometime now you can meet in UKR twitters name "Hopra" - this is shortage slang name of Hola Prystan', using mostly by locals. 

 

[Beleg85]

Did Arestovych just confirmed Ukrainians captured Oleshky?

Also this:

 

Many milaccounts here with own sources on the ground get also suddenly hot-headed about Svatove direction.

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Does Ukraine control the dam? I ask cause it's one thing to flood the Russian defensive line, another thing to flood multiple Ukrainian bridgeheads.

No. Fire control yes, but not physical. Dam control is in Nova Kakhovka.

[FancyCat]

Political considerations are always important in war. Might we wonder whether Ukraine pushing is motivated by ensuring Western support does not subside? What better way to tell Milley to shove his words than to cross the Dnipro?

 

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

No. Fire control yes, but not physical. Dam control is in Nova Kakhovka.

I would not be comfortable with crossing the river in significant mass without control of the dam.

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

Did Arestovych just confirmed Ukrainians captured Oleshky?

Also this:

 

Many milaccounts here with own sources on the ground get also suddenly hot-headed about Svatove direction.

Translation: locals write about sounds of battle in area Oleshky - Radensk. I can't confirm, so still wait.

As if RUMINT claims Russians already are fleeing from Zaliznyi Port (eng. "Iron Port")

[FancyCat]

Ukraine has gotten aid from the U.S without advance notice of it's arrival in Ukraine. They may well have sent the riverine boats already.

Edited November 14, 2022 by FancyCat

[Haiduk]

I have suspicion, UKR high command decided to make crazy thing - attack from Kinburn - Hola Prystan' area toward Crimean isthmus at least to have opportunity to shell the roads from Crimea with arty fire. This will make difficult supply of whole southern Russian grouping.

I recall a words of Cyryl Budanov, chief of GUR, which he said in the summer  - "we have a plans to be in Northern Crimea up to first half of winter "

Edited November 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I have suspicion, UKR hight command decided to make crazy thing - attack from Kinburn - Hola Prystan' area toward Crimean isthmus at least to have opportunity to shell the roads from Crimea with arty fire. This will make difficult supply of whole southern Russian grouping

But what about UA supply lines? This is literally puting oneself in position like Russians in Kherson.

 

Also, after Herman Gref, now also Nabiullina is admitting Russian economy may not be well...perhaps overinterpretation, but worth to observe G20 in this respect.

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

21 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No. Fire control yes, but not physical. Dam control is in Nova Kakhovka.

 

19 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Political considerations are always important in war. Might we wonder whether Ukraine pushing is motivated by ensuring Western support does not subside? What better way to tell Milley to shove his words than to cross the Dnipro?

 

I would not be comfortable with crossing the river in significant mass without control of the dam.

Once you get towards the end of the river delta, say around Zaberyne, could any amount of water from the dam have much effect? If the Russians let a lot of water out it might just interfere with their own efforts If the AFU tried to get established on the P57 maybe? Obviously ambitious, but maybe the mobiks morale is down far enough to really try something. One special forces team in Skadovs'k might induce blind panic in the Russian command structure. Even if it was just long enough to induce them to make a mistake somewhere else.

 

Edit: Cross posted with Haiduk saying sort of the same thing.

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by dan/california