How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

25 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

And who says dreams don't come true?   This was my fervent wish in my posts last few days and here it is getting fulfilled.  

Once again we have to ask whether will Putin survive this unbelievably incompetent disaster??  Putin was the one ordering more & more troops into the pocket for months until suddenly deciding to pull them out in what seems to have been an impulse decision.  

Now all I want is for no more Ukrainians to get caught by mines & booby traps as they destroy/capture the mob left in the kessel.

We need to wait some time, a lot of unconfirmed info. Sharp firefights are reportedly N-W of Kherson and in towns/hamlets West of the city. We still almost nothing about Russian troops from North-East of the pocket;  it was large area divided by Shihurivka/Inhulec line, highly unlikely they managed to run in time. They would have something like 40 kms to Nova Kahovka and 25 to Kherson city.

 

Maybe it was Russian mistake to remove remains of prince Potiemkin from Kherson Cathedral instead of own living soldiers. His ghost visibly did not like that.

[poesel]

This guy has a short video about a tank trying to cross one of the Russian dragon teeth. It is obviously staged but still interesting.

https://t.me/brussinf

[Kinophile]

 

"there were no agreements".  Yup,  because Russians are an untrustworthy sack of lying ****s. Also perfect example of how RUS command truly does not care about its men. Any responsible and decent GHQ would negotiate a retreat agreement with UKR.

That was something I noticed ref Suvorokins pantomine nonsense  -  no mention of communication with UKR opposing numbers. No talk of staged,  deliberate and non aggressive retreat, keeping RUS troops whole at the exchange of leaving Kherson and people's  undamaged or contested. Just "We leaving,  Buh Bye!"  and all the Ivans at Kherson going "Wait,  what? Now!?".  Man,  racists bigotry reaps it's own inevitable reward. 

The UKR artillery will mow the Dniper banks like a horrific gigantic human lawn mower. 

And The ghosts of Iloviask will have their long due revenge. 

 

Edited November 10, 2022 by Kinophile

[FancyCat]

If Russia had cycled conscripts and untrained personnel to cover for moving out trained and higher value units, it is not a surprise that they are broken and fleeing for the left bank. You don't want your less experienced forces conducting rear guard actions. So I suppose Russia does not give a damn about the conscripts and only the better trained personnel or it is a extensive collapse.

How many times have we had Russian high command act like everything is okay and then the picture on the ground is painfully contrasting? Too many...

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

And The ghosts of Iloviask will have their long due revenge. 

+1. Now curious how many of Russians from frontlines have NVG equipment to even reach riverbank by night, under the barrage. Hell, by this stage I wouldn't be suprised we see tomorrow Ukrainian specials crossing the river before them, just like at Kupyansk.

 

Talking about Surovikin, worth to check this thread by Maria Pevchikh:

ED: We have it...5000 Polish mercenaries! By fabulous research team of official Russian news agency RIA Novosti. Muscovites must be in really bad mood.

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Beleg85

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

ED: We have it...5000 Polish mercenaries! By fabulous research team of official Russian news agency RIA Novosti. Muscovites must be in really bad mood.

 

With all the tall tales of Polish mercs in Ukraine,Next RU is going to claim that Rafał Gan-Ganowicz has been resurrected and fighting for UKR.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

We need to wait some time, a lot of unconfirmed info. Sharp firefights are reportedly N-W of Kherson and in towns/hamlets West of the city. We still almost nothing about Russian troops from North-East of the pocket;  it was large area divided by Shihurivka/Inhulec line, highly unlikely they managed to run in time. They would have something like 40 kms to Nova Kahovka and 25 to Kherson city.

 

Maybe it was Russian mistake to remove remains of prince Potiemkin from Kherson Cathedral instead of own living soldiers. His ghost visibly did not like that.

You are correct, of course, that we don't have enough info to be sure what's up.  I do feel confident that panic is occurring and many troops will simply flee.  Everything we've seen leading up to this point makes panic/collapse the most likely outcome.  As mentioned in the posts just above, RU commanders are known to abandon troops all over the front and that has to be more likely here.  Now troops that did not receive orders to retreat are learning that Kherson is being abandoned, officially.  And we know that mobiks have been shoved into the kessel.  I will be shocked if this withdrawal does not lead to some significant disaster for RU.  Hundreds dead and several thousand captured would be horrific PR for Putin, not to mention a morale killer for other troops.

[danfrodo]

Let the good times roll.  Map looks amazing relative to where we've been for months.  Good summary stuff again from this site.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/10/2135106/-Ukraine-update-Fighting-underway-as-Ukrainian-troops-enter-Kherson-Russia-loses-its-biggest-prize

 

[Beleg85]

28 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

With all the tall tales of Polish mercs in Ukraine,Next RU is going to claim that Rafał Gan-Ganowicz has been resurrected and fighting for UKR.

+1, out of likes for knowing the man, he is buried several kms from my place btw. Perhaps Russians wanted to make a gift for us, tomorrow is Independence Day . But curious absence of legions of Anglo-Saxons may suggest they are expecting to loose on other fronts as well.

26 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

You are correct, of course, that we don't have enough info to be sure what's up.  I do feel confident that panic is occurring and many troops will simply flee.  Everything we've seen leading up to this point makes panic/collapse the most likely outcome.  As mentioned in the posts just above, RU commanders are known to abandon troops all over the front and that has to be more likely here.  Now troops that did not receive orders to retreat are learning that Kherson is being abandoned, officially.  And we know that mobiks have been shoved into the kessel.  I will be shocked if this withdrawal does not lead to some significant disaster for RU.  Hundreds dead and several thousand captured would be horrific PR for Putin, not to mention a morale killer for other troops.

Hopefully it will be PR disaster, but we simply lack enoug info for now except Ukrainians are intensively striking both banks of the river and some UA subunits are in Kherson itself. There is a lot of fantasy stories, like Ukrainian making small SF helicopter assault on road crossings below Inhulets.

Frankly knowing Surovikin he sacrificed several thousand rear guard mobiks well before, they don't count; but probably not expected such quick collapse. Tomorrow will be interesting day- if Russia visibly looses enough heavy equipment there is a chance for some significant shift in mood regarding war.

Edited November 11, 2022 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

+1, out of likes for knowing the man, he is buried several kms from my place btw. Perhaps Russians mada wanted to make a gift for us, tomorrow is Independence Day . But curious absence of legions of Anglo-Saxons may suggest they are expecting to loose on other fronts as well.

Hopefully it will be PR disaster, but we simply lack enoug info for now except Ukrainians are intensively striking both banks of the river and some UA subunits are in Kherson itself. Frankly knowing Surovikin he sacrificed several thousand rear guard mobiks well before, they don't count; but probably not expected such quick collapse. Tomorrow will be interesting day- if Russia visibly looses enough heavy equipment there is a chance for some significant shift in mood regarding war.

Fire, sword, Himars, and 155 until they fly white flags or take the cold water swimming test. This batch gets to pay its bill in full.

[dan/california]

No clue if the above it is true, but if it is this the moment for a general offensive everywhere west of Donetsk. I so want to see the Russians shoved into the Sea of Azov, and the Kerch bridge under a hail of Himars fire.

[danfrodo]

33 minutes ago, dan/california said:

No clue if the above it is true, but if it is this the moment for a general offensive everywhere west of Donetsk. I so want to see the Russians shoved into the Sea of Azov, and the Kerch bridge under a hail of Himars fire.

well, hopefully RU folks believe.  Hopefully they are seeing UKR ghosts everywhere and this will cause rear echelon panic, at least for a few days. 

[Kinophile]

He's not a bad source usually. I doubt "removal of Putin" nonsense but it would be good to corrode/overwhelm RUS attempt at narrative contol with media of excessive RUS casualties 

[Kinophile]

24 hrs change

Edited November 11, 2022 by Kinophile

[Offshoot]

25 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

He's not a bad source usually. I doubt "removal of Putin" nonsense but it would be good to corrode/overwhelm RUS attempt at narrative contol with media of excessive RUS casualties 

Also on the narrative from the horse's mouth

 

[billbindc]

 

Clearly someone's been reading this thread...

[FancyCat]

Two scenarios, one, Russia successfully deceived Ukrainian forces and withdrew to a tighter perimeter in prep for final withdraw or are in the process of doing so. I still expect a lot of equipment left behind, but POWs not at all really.

If Russia was relying on a rearguard, or a final stand force to bleed out Ukraine, I would expect them to try and retain as far away from Kherson and the dam to prevent artillery fire, so that option is largely gone except for Kherson itself. More POWs, whether they fight a defensive battle or surrender, remains to be seen.

Either way, I seriously doubt Russia won’t be forced to leave a lot of equipment behind due to the attacks on the bridgeheads, so we cannot look at equipment left and conclude the withdrawal was a failure, as the equipment was lost after it shipped over in the first place basically.

Now, certainly if they failed to disable the equipment, certainly a sign of a bad withdrawal. But supply dumps, POWs will be more useful for determining whether the retreat was orderly or not.

 

[Kinophile]

Rumint but.... 

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Rumint but.... 

That would put 120mm MORTARS in range of the river. Fours rounds a minute per tube just raining down. Russians are almost getting what they deserve, almost....

[dan/california]

37 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Two scenarios, one, Russia successfully deceived Ukrainian forces and withdrew to a tighter perimeter in prep for final withdraw or are in the process of doing so. I still expect a lot of equipment left behind, but POWs not at all really.

If Russia was relying on a rearguard, or a final stand force to bleed out Ukraine, I would expect them to try and retain as far away from Kherson and the dam to prevent artillery fire, so that option is largely gone except for Kherson itself. More POWs, whether they fight a defensive battle or surrender, remains to be seen.

Either way, I seriously doubt Russia won’t be forced to leave a lot of equipment behind due to the attacks on the bridgeheads, so we cannot look at equipment left and conclude the withdrawal was a failure, as the equipment was lost after it shipped over in the first place basically.

Now, certainly if they failed to disable the equipment, certainly a sign of a bad withdrawal. But supply dumps, POWs will be more useful for determining whether the retreat was orderly or not.

 

Third scenario is that this is the single worst military disaster anybody has suffered since 1945...

Edited November 11, 2022 by dan/california

[Fenris]

This is that HMMWV hitting a mine incident as seen from their recce drone

 

[Battlefront.com]

Just got back from an ill timed roadtrip

Looks to me that this is unfolding pretty much as we discussed here over the last few months.  Not too difficult to conceive of the most likely scenario because we knew some basic facts:

1. the size of the Russian force on the right bank was too large to be supplied by ferries, which is the only thing Ukraine couldn't fully destroy.
2. at some point Russia would realize this and would be forced to retreat.  Not partially, but completely due to the simple fact that as they reduced their footprint it would make it even harder to get supplied. 
3. Ukraine has a large and extremely capable offensive force arrayed against Russian forces.
4. opposed withdrawals are extremely difficult to do even under optimal situations by well disciplined, capable, and competently led forces.  None of these apply to the Russian forces, at least not in total (i.e. not all their units are useless).
5. even when things go well, frequently the rearguard gets wiped out because by the time it's their turn to evacuate the paths of retreat are dangerously compromised.  Even small attacker breakthroughs or moderately consistent artillery fire is enough to preclude an orderly retreat of the last remaining defenders.  In normal circumstances many survive by breaking up into small groups and infiltrating their way back to friendly lines.  Significant rivers, however, greatly limit the possibilites for any one group to make it across.

This is the sort of stuff Russian forces had working against them and I'm sure nobody here thought they would be able to magically solve all of them.  Or any of them

Steve

[Kinophile]

Rumint but.... 

[Kinophile]

 

Edited November 11, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

Here's my guess as to how things are unfolding and where things are headed:

1. Russia finally came to the realization that barring a prolonged patch of very bad weather that their forces would not be able to hold out much longer against Ukraine's offensive.
2. non-combat personnel and all washing machines were ordered to move to the left bank for safety.
3. steps were taken on the left bank to prepare for losing the right bank, such as digging trenches and probably moving in mobiks to sit in them with sharp sticks (maybe logs if they got authorization from Shoigu).
4. the last hope of weather bad enough to stall out Ukraine's offensive didn't happen.  Losses were mounting, supplies decreasing.  Forces were ordered to begin thinning themselves and being evacuated to the left bank from the interior first, then selected sectors of front.  Before those sectors were thinned/abandoned they were extensively mined in the hopes of slowing down any breakthroughs.
5. due to cumulative losses over the course of the war, but in particular for the last 2 months, the general quality of even the good Russian units has degraded significantly.  What might have been OK to hold well fortified positions were not up to the task of improvised, mobile defense. 
6. logistics were also not likely up to the challenges of keeping the forces in contact with Ukraine adequately supplied.  Logistics is a known weakness for Russia, but it's really weak when there's nothing to supply units with.  Russia deliberately blowing up its own supplies to avoid capture makes this all the worse.  Who here thinks that logistics units are being proactively re-routed to remaining stocks?
7. all manner of delaying tactics were employed against advancing Ukrainian forces, such as blowing bridges, mines, artillery, and air attacks.  However, they were likely too spotty in breadth and too thin in depth to stop rapid Ukrainian advances.
8. once Ukraine managed to move significant forces through the temporary defensive line, the rest of the positions began to crack.  Even if they didn't panic, they would likely pull back with or without orders.
9. once the Russian lines were broken through in a couple of spots, fleeing in panic became an increasingly common, which in turn sped up the Ukrainian advances, which in turn compromised the Russian lines in other spots, which caused yet more units to flee.  The more a sector is defended by mobiks, the worse the tactical situation probably is.
10. cohesive, organized defense has collapsed.  From here on out it's improvised and increasingly "every man for himself".  Mobiks may be psychologically better equipped for this stage, as they were already disorganized and not doing much of militarily significance anyway.
11. with collapse comes a psychological boost to the Ukrainians, panic for the Russians.

And that seems to be where we are as of the early evening of November the 10th.

 

November 11th I expect we'll see all kinds of reports of Ukrainian forces in crazy locations without any warning.  I'm not just talking about along the frontlines, but significantly deeply into Russian held territory.  Many of these reports will be false for one reason or another, but a large number will be legitimate.  As the day goes on they will increase in both frequency and distance from the last known Ukrainian positions.

Russian forces will increasingly get caught in panic mode throughout the day.  Many of them dying in horrific numbers in very small areas, especially staging areas.  It will be like Bilohorivka on a massive scale.  Any and all means of getting across the river are going to be complete chaos and, likely, bloody.

It is entirely possible that Russian units will shoot at each other to determine who gets to cross first.

Russians will surrender in increasing numbers as the day goes on.

Will all Russian forces be cleared out by the end of November 11?  I don't know.  It's possible, but that depends on a number of factors, especially air and artillery support coming from the left bank.  However, the most important factor is how many of Russia's "good" units manage to dig in around the embarkation points and put up a "Dunkirk" level of resistance.  Personally, I don't think these units have enough spirit to conduct such defenses in quantity, but I think it shouldn't be ruled out.

I dunno if the Russians on the right bank can make it through the end of November 12th.

The biggest question is about how many personnel got evacuated before Nov 11th.  Ironically, the better they did at withdrawing before yesterday, the worse today will be for the remaining forces.

Steve