How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, womble said:

Given that background, why would any expat Russian-roots now-Israeli have any sympathy whatsoever for the "Nazis that never went in front of the Nuremburg panels"? Rose-tinted nostalgia goggles? Even when those very same continuation Fascists are doing Genocide right in front of them?

Politics = “Strange Bedfellows”

[danfrodo]

Putin being a genius yet again.  Launching terror attacks on UKR civilians which is on TV news in US every single day.  With support for UKR already at 66% and Putin slaughtering civilians and actually boasting about kidnapping UKR children, It will be interesting to see if a MAGA congress can actually shut off the funding.  Putin is not making US folks waver by demonstrating, every day, that he's a monster killing women and children.

The GOPers on this forum who are going to vote for these GOP candidates wouldn't stand for removing UKR funding, I believe.  As much I disagree w them on other items, this is a place we all can easily see right vs wrong.  GOP is supposed to stand for freedom against tyranny.  Let's see the leadership walk that walk instead of their spiritual leader actually praising a serial mass murdering, child kidnapping destroyer of cities (and economies).  The vast majority of GOP members of congress and the senate have been honorable and steadfast in doing the right thing, let's see that continue.  If not, get on the phone and email and give the candidate you supporting a solid bit of your mind -- they do listen sometimes, especially when they know you are a GOP voter.  

[NamEndedAllen]

38 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am not an expert on US politics but we do spend a lot of time worrying about up here.  My bet is that this will not be a complete turning off of the tap, not even the most ardent pro-Russian Republicans can justify that to their own voters at this point.  What it may mean is a lot more pressure to “tie this thing off” sooner than later, or make it a European problem.  

Further it could mean bumps for follow on reconstruction support coming out of the US but as I understand it that is a lot more complicated than which party has the gavel as US companies could gain a lot from a massive reconstruction effort.

Bottom line is that there could be some tough decisions ahead and some less than optimal outcomes on the table at least as far as US support is concerned.  If Putin was smart he would shift the narrative with the US audience in mind, sow some seeds of doubt as to what this is all about.  Of course the continuous stream of warcrimes is not helping.  Further the Russians appear so wound up right now in some circles that any concessions or shift, it might blow up in his face.

We are coming to a particularly tricky phase of this thing from a political perspective unless something dramatic happens on the ground.

You make a good point about increasing pressure on bringing about an end to the conflict. And by a Party far too enamored with Putin, Russia and toying with autocratic notions. However it would be mistaken to suggest that the question of support for Ukraine has an either/or answer. Far more likely will be BOTH that pressure *and* longer delays and a decrease in spending as sparring over just what gets included in the maddeningly frequent and persistent “stop gap” funding to keep the USA government functioning for the next few months. Over and over again. 
 

I do not mean to get mired down in USA politics! Rather, to emphasize that Putin very likely sees attacking USA politics and governance abilities as one of the few high return offensive options left. 

[Zeleban]

Pro-Russian channels are actively discussing the possibility of an imminent massive Ukrainian offensive against Kherson and the probable loss of the city. Today's comments from the fake leaders of this region also hint that the city could be lost soon.

[NamEndedAllen]

35 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

https://media.defense.gov/2022/Oct/18/2003098052/-1/-1/1/UKRAINE-FACT-SHEET-OCT-14.PDF

The latest fact sheet, lots of things aren't being replaced. 200 M113s, those 20 Mi-17s we're intended for Afghanistan, hundreds of Humvees, 440 MRAPs, and I'm sure there's a ton else that isn't being replaced once it leaves our warehouses.

And that’s the military aid. Billions in financial aid and other support has also been forthcoming.

https://www.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/aug-08-2022-united-states-contributes-45-billion-support-government-ukraine

https://marketrealist.com/p/how-much-money-has-the-us-sent-to-ukrainie/

https://ua.usembassy.gov/fact-sheet-u-s-assistance-ukraine/

 

[Haiduk]

Some facts about Shakhed-131 (smaller brother of 136 with 10-15 kg warhead) and -136 after their remains research by UKR engineers:

1. Engine (in Shaked-136).  German-develped Limbach L550E for small aircrafts. Clones produce in China and Iran (likely China was a source). This is air-cooled 4-cylynder horyzontally-opposed two stroke engine with displacement 548 cc and 50 hp

2. Navigation. Drones are not guided, they fly by coordinates and have GPS (CRPA) and inertial navigation system. GPS is default. It has protection against GPS-jammers/spoofing. If drone is losing GPS signal, inertial system is turning on and the drone continue a flight, but can have course errror 5% of traveled route. When GPS signal is renewed, GPS-navigation turning on again and drone is conducting course correction

3. Electronics. Flight control block of Shakhed-131 composed from five boards with processors TMS320, F28335 from Texas Instruments. Shakhed-136 - CPU marking is removed, but due to architecture it matched to Altera/Intel product. Some types of Korean chips are present of Shakhed-136 board

4. Manufactiring. One of factories, which produce theese drones (as well as Mohajer-6) was built in Tajikistan by China, use Chineese technology and controlled by Chineese

Sources:  https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/an_advanced_radio_communication_device_on_american_processors_found_in_the_shahed_136-4446.html (in English)

  https://techno.nv.ua/innovations/drony-kamikadze-shahed-136-50277597.html 

https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ne_tilki_shahed_136_zjavilos_detalne_doslidzhennja_sche_odnogo_iranskogo_drona_kamikadze_jakij_vikoristovuje_rf-9033.html (here pdf file with detailed report with photos of Shakhed-131 components)

Communication board of Shakhed-136

Edited October 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[acrashb]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some facts about Shakhed-131 (smaller brother of 136 with 10-15 kg warhead) and -136 after their remains research by UKR engineers:

[...]

3. Electronics. Flight control block of Shakhed-131 composed from five boards with processors TMS320, F28335 from Texas Instruments. Shakhed-136 - CPU marking is removed, but due to architecture it matched to Altera/Intel product. Some types of Korean chips are present of Shakhed-136 board

Lots of sanctionable components.

[Haiduk]

Look at CNN, maybe she will tell something in twitetr later

Edited October 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Ok, so it is official now:

There is unusual silence on Ukrainian side as well. We may be close to very interesting events.

[Haiduk]

Hmmm... Hrim-2 again? )

 

[Billy Ringo]

I will be shocked, absolutely shocked if a Republican led House and/or Senate cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine.   I keep seeing this discussed but from a grass roots perspective I don't see this as being even remotely popular among conservative voters.  Yes----"Biden is corrupt and evil" and conservatives will work hard to counter his agenda.  But I don't see Ukraine support as being on the chopping block--very strong bipartisan support.  

Hell, it's about the only thing most of both parties can agree on.

 

 

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Look at CNN, maybe she will tell something in twitetr later

If the Kremlin is talking, it is lying, really is almost that simple. They have completely trashed the worlds ability to believe anything they say so badly it will significantly complicate the negotiations to end the war when operation "Sunflower Fertilizer" has kicked the last living Russian soldier out of Ukraine.

Edited October 18, 2022 by dan/california

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, so it is official now:

There is unusual silence on Ukrainian side as well. We may be close to very interesting events.

I think he would look nice as a lamppost decoration.  Yeah, you better run.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

I will be shocked, absolutely shocked if a Republican led House and/or Senate cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine.   I keep seeing this discussed but from a grass roots perspective I don't see this as being even remotely popular among conservative voters.  Yes----"Biden is corrupt and evil" and conservatives will work hard to counter his agenda.  But I don't see Ukraine support as being on the chopping block--very strong bipartisan support.  

Hell, it's about the only thing most of both parties can agree on.

 

 

Right on, Billy Ringo!  Let's all work together and make the world a better place.  Starting w a serious *** whuppin' on the greatest terrorist in the world.  

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

I think he would look nice as a lamppost decoration.  Yeah, you better run.

By far the best revenge is to convince the FSB he is a Ukrainian double agent, and it is all his fault.

[sburke]

the 40 billion dollar spending bill passed both the senate and house with overwhelming support in both parties.  While the no votes were concentrated in the GOP, most of the GOP backed it.  A change in majorities should not significantly alter that   There are folks who get a lot of publicity in their statements.  The more extreme the more publicity.  I wouldn't count on those folks making as much impact as their noise level might indicate.  On top of that the corporations set to make money off it will send their political donations to whomever ensures the tap is turned on.  The MAGA core's main impact is in the primaries, once folks are elected the money talks louder.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, so it is official now:

There is unusual silence on Ukrainian side as well. We may be close to very interesting events.

The last time the Ukrainians tried absolutely everything to make the Russians look at Kherson, They smacked the bleep out of them in Kharkiv. I think it less likely to be deception this time, but it is still worth pointing out.

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Major Vadim Lemesh, 102nd MRR of 150th MRD, 8th CAA, Southern military district. Got killed on 6th Aug

 

 

 

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Hmmm... Hrim-2 again? )

 

I can't imagine what the target would be ~20 miles from Slovoyansk to rate a Grim-2. I would think they would burn two whole pods of GMLRS first. Maybe Ukraine snuck an airstrike in with a thousand pound LGB/JDAM of some description? SOF had time to rig a big bomb? A whole ammo dump went at once?

Edited October 18, 2022 by dan/california

[NamEndedAllen]

22 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

I will be shocked, absolutely shocked if a Republican led House and/or Senate cuts or reduces aid to Ukraine.   I keep seeing this discussed but from a grass roots perspective I don't see this as being even remotely popular among conservative voters.  Yes----"Biden is corrupt and evil" and conservatives will work hard to counter his agenda.  But I don't see Ukraine support as being on the chopping block--very strong bipartisan support.  

Hell, it's about the only thing most of both parties can agree on.

 

 

You should always be prepared to be shocked. The voters are not the deciders once the election over. Congressional Republicans most likely will be. Factually speaking, they quite often vote against policies both the majority of Americans and of their own constituencies support. Both parties agree *now* on Ukrainian support. What comes after is often quite different. Taxes! Foreign aid! Tucker Carlson/FOX - Russia is GOOD. Putin is misunderstood. Trump remains an overpowering voice for Republican *elected* persons. And he is no friend of Ukraine. Unchanged iron clad continued support is certainly *one* scenario. Another reasonable scenario is that the absolutely predictable increase in slowing down or attempted ending of all Administration legislative initiatives by a Republican House will be a *decrease* in aid to Ukraine and a slowing of its delivery. An end to all aid is a highly unlikely scenario. At least through 2024. 
 

Again, the future is not written. But we ought not to assume too much in these volatile and bitter times. Especially given the worldwide upsurge in right wing political success, and at least in the USA its accompanying embrace of “America First” and isolationism.

Edited October 18, 2022 by NamEndedAllen

[akd]

46 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is air-cooled 4-cylynder horyzontally-opposed two stroke engine with displacement 548 cc and 50 hp

This, in my opinion, is the sole reason we refuse to acknowledge these as budget cruise missiles.  A cruise missile can’t have a motorcycle engine!

[JonS]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

lots of things aren't being replaced. 200 M113s, those 20 Mi-17s we're intended for Afghanistan, hundreds of Humvees, 440 MRAPs,

Sure, but those amount to a rounding error in terms of the total value of aid committed. There's 10s of thousands of smart and dumb 155 rounds that will(?) be replaced, along with all the M777s, HIMARS, missiles, javelins, etc.

Edited October 18, 2022 by JonS

[dan/california]

17 minutes ago, JonS said:

Sure, but those amount to a rounding error in terms of the total value of aid committed. There's 10s of thousands of smart and dumb 155 rounds that will(?) be replaced, along with all the M777s, HIMARS, missiles, javelins, etc.

We are spending LOT of money, it is also one of the better bargains in history. The Ukrainians are doing the bleeding, and even if it cost another hundred billion it is dirt cheap to essentially eliminate the Russian Army for a generation or more. With Ukraine victorious and in NATO we really CAN pivot toward China.

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

We are spending LOT of money, it is also one of the better bargains in history. The Ukrainians are doing the bleeding, and even if it cost another hundred billion it is dirt cheap to essentially eliminate the Russian Army for a generation or more. With Ukraine victorious and in NATO we really CAN pivot toward China.

Hopefully we won't need to pivot to China.  Hopefully US & China will make the smart decision and realize economy matters a lot more than some piece of land somewhere and to not kill the goose that lays golden eggs just for some nationalistic stupidity.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Some facts about Shakhed-131 (smaller brother of 136 with 10-15 kg warhead) and -136 after their remains research by UKR engineers:

1. Engine (in Shaked-136).  German-develped Limbach L550E for small aircrafts. Clones produce in China and Iran (likely China was a source). This is air-cooled 4-cylynder horyzontally-opposed two stroke engine with displacement 548 cc and 50 hp

2. Navigation. Drones are not guided, they fly by coordinates and have GPS (CRPA) and inertial navigation system. GPS is default. It has protection against GPS-jammers/spoofing. If drone is losing GPS signal, inertial system is turning on and the drone continue a flight, but can have course errror 5% of traveled route. When GPS signal is renewed, GPS-navigation turning on again and drone is conducting course correction

3. Electronics. Flight control block of Shakhed-131 composed from five boards with processors TMS320, F28335 from Texas Instruments. Shakhed-136 - CPU marking is removed, but due to architecture it matched to Altera/Intel product. Some types of Korean chips are present of Shakhed-136 board

4. Manufactiring. One of factories, which produce theese drones (as well as Mohajer-6) was built in Tajikistan by China, use Chineese technology and controlled by Chineese

Sources:  https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/an_advanced_radio_communication_device_on_american_processors_found_in_the_shahed_136-4446.html (in English)

  https://techno.nv.ua/innovations/drony-kamikadze-shahed-136-50277597.html 

https://defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ne_tilki_shahed_136_zjavilos_detalne_doslidzhennja_sche_odnogo_iranskogo_drona_kamikadze_jakij_vikoristovuje_rf-9033.html (here pdf file with detailed report with photos of Shakhed-131 components)

Communication board of Shakhed-136

These drones, and the Orlan Tens are both pretty nice examples of good enough engineering. The limits on their effectiveness have at least as much to do with the broader problems of the military using them as they do the hardware itself. There is a lot to be said for slightly upgraded copies of both. Five hundred or a thousand  improved 136 class drones would do a proper job on an unfriendly air defense system if the strike was planned out by a competent planning/targeting complex. Throw in some seekers that will home on various sorts of emitters for 10% of them, and you have ruined someone's whole day for 50 or a 100 million dollars. Assuming a hundred thousand dollars per unit.