How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

RU explains where RU infantry high-tech gear disappeared.

Quote

In the video, the president is shown the Strelets control system, which includes equipment for communication, targeting, processing and displaying information, identification, which allows transmitting information about the location of a soldier to the command post.

On February 20 of this year, all the company commanders of the N-th unit were gathered at the RAV warehouses and received all this fashionable junk. They got orders - sign the form and distribute them to the soldiers. The company commanders exchanged glances, shrugged their shoulders, received, signed and went to distribute. Squad leaders asked: "What is it and how to use it?", CC answered: "F*ck knows, they told you to take it, so take it. Tomorrow at the drill review, take all this stuff with you to show you have it." As a result, after a drill review, all this fashionable junk with tablets and GPS navigation was removed and thrown away into armored personnel carriers and easily forgotten FOREVER. A lot of it was burned down in those crazy columns of the spring of 2022, because no one, not even battalion commanders, knew how to use this equipment.

Exactly the same situation happened with anti-tank platoons. They were formed on the eve of the outbreak of war, sent to the RAV warehouse and ... issued brand new ATGM "Kornet", which, unlike the previous ATGM "Fagot", "Konkurs" and "Metis", control is carried out not by wires, but by a laser beam. Moreover, it is possible to fire from this ATGM even at night, since a thermal imaging guidance device is installed on it. At the same time, the "Fagots" (from which they learned to shoot all this time) were seized from the unit.

 

[Haiduk]

Last night six Shahed-136 drones attacked Bila Tserkva city in Kyiv oblast. AD can't spot them, so they successfully hit targets

Aftermath:

In comments somebody told this is military base of 72nd mech.brigade. Three barracks were hit. Unknown what sense of attack, when all brigade is on frontline and buildings were empty. Reportedly one civilian serviceman of brigade was wounded.   

[Kinophile]

25 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

UKR trench. The deep hole can rise your chances during artilley shellings

 

Or entomb you.  Jesus no bloody way am I going in that. 

[poesel]

4 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

https://www.forces.net/ukraine/what-cost-nato-countries-win-war-ukraine

How much will it cost NATO nations for Ukraine to defeat Russia?

 

If I think about that we just reserved 200B€ to keep gas & electricity prices low, we should rather have spent that money on Ukraine and the war would be over by now... (no, it wouldn't, I know. But you get my drift)

34 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

Though I hope that it is true, the source is BILD and that makes it automatically untrue (most of the time). BILD is really the worst. Let's hope, that we have a second source.

[Grigb]

RU claims they started counter-attack and captured Dibrove

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

He wasn't even most ukrainophobic creature in Russian nats scene;

Strelkov is just media person, but still a pawn in hands of Malofeyev - "orthodox oligarch". Dugin is not pawn, and he was more than just Ukrainophobic. I think, you just didn't hear about Dugin unil this year, but this very important person, maybe not so media-popular, but his work into building of rashism ideocracy hard to overestimate.

Goebbels, for example also wasn't mlitary, but I think nobody would be consider his hypothetic assasination like something violating rules of war. Milirary crimes are commiting not only with a weapon. Ideology and propaganda is the same weapon, which even more terrible in global scale. So, I will not surprise if in one day something happen with formally "non-combatants" Skabeyeva or Solovyov, but indeed are both are "soldiers of idiology front and PsyOps" 

[Grigb]

RU claim - UKR are concentrating forces at Pershotravneve. Attack in 1-2 days. Svatove not Kreminna is main objective of the attack.

 

[Grigb]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Strelkov is just media person, but still a pawn in hands of Malofeyev - "orthodox oligarch". Dugin is not pawn, and he was more than just Ukrainophobic. I think, you just didn't hear about Dugin unil this year, but this very important person, maybe not so media-popular, but his work into building of rashism ideocracy hard to overestimate.

No. But I will stop here.

[Haiduk]

15 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU claims they started counter-attack and captured Dibrove

Dibrova according to DeepState map is a grey zone. I also didn't see evidences that UKR forces eneterd there (not be confused with Dibrova nearby in Donetsk oblast next to Yampil)

[Zeleban]

 

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Dibrova according to DeepState map is a grey zone. I also didn't see evidences that UKR forces eneterd there (not be confused with Dibrova nearby in Donetsk oblast next to Yampil)

There were unconfirmed RU reports that UKR forces (by description it was Dagger unit) captured it couple of weeks ago. Also, RU reported that UKR reached outskirts of Kreminna. 

DeepState map is usually 1-2 days behind. 

[Haiduk]

44 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Video from Ukrainan "tank riders" being ambushed;

I suppose, the tank ran over the mine - at 0:22 as if you can see hanging track

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

There were unconfirmed RU reports that UKR forces (by description it was Dagger unit) captured it couple of weeks ago.

If couple of weeks, then this was about Dibrova near Yampil

[Beleg85]

18 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Strelkov is just media person, but still a pawn in hands of Malofeyev - "orthodox oligarch". Dugin is not pawn, and he was more than just Ukrainophobic. I think, you just didn't hear about Dugin unil this year, but this very important person, maybe not so media-popular, but his work into building of rashism ideocracy hard to overestimate.

Goebbels, for example also wasn't mlitary, but I think nobody would be consider his hypothetic assasination like something violating rules of war. Milirary crimes are commiting not only with a weapon. Ideology and propaganda is the same weapon, which even more terrible in global scale. So, I will not surprise if in one day something happen with formally "non-combatants" Skabeyeva or Solovyov, but indeed are both are "soldiers of idiology front and PsyOps" 

I even read Dugin a decade or so ago, there were some books of him translated in Polish. Back then he was considered a literate freak, like Zhirik, Limonov or Prilepin. Except some neo-pagans and several "geopolitical realists" nobody took him seriously. We discussed this already many times here- he was known to the westerners, but most experts seem to agree his significance was much infated compared to other "Kremlin ideologists".

Of course I am aware of his hate speech against your countrymen and personally have no problem with Ukrainians targeting him. But objectively this is very bad move, if true. That was one of the reasons when discussing Dugina's assassination here, we doubted in SBU as main suspects in her case- there is nothing to gain and a lot to loose if Ukrainians will start to assassinate people in broad daylight just like this.

 

 

 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

To the list of UKR units, participating in Kherson offensive - elements of 1st National Guard Special purpose operative brigade in Novovoskresenske village - important objective on crossroads.

[Huba]

So the new Rybar map of Kherson is finally out. I looks like UA did indeed used this day for consolidation and clearing operations in newly captured territories. I suppose they'd like to resume the offensive actions ASAP to keep the momentum - we'll probably see tomorrow.

What is strange is that most of the new entry describes UA forces moving out of Mykolayiv to dispersed positions across the region. This I think is a pure  copium/ confabulation, in reality UA brigades seem to be concentrated more or less along the line of contact.

[Combatintman]

3 hours ago, acrashb said:

Would that be paraphernalia locally manufactured (which would be surprising), or is it left-behind stuff from the Biden evacuation?

Most of the good (US) kit is being worn or carried by Taliban Special Forces (Badr 313 etc) or went to Pakistan.  It will be mostly Chinese knock-off kit that is going to Russia.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Or entomb you.  Jesus no bloody way am I going in that. 

Aside from saving your life, trenches and pits are actually pretty cosy places to hang out. Total PITA to dig, but once you've done the mahi they're gold.

Edit: but yeah, I do get the instinctive "nope!" when looking from the outside in

Edited October 5, 2022 by JonS

[Grigb]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

If couple of weeks, then this was about Dibrova near Yampil

Only if it was near Torske-Kreminna road. RU claimed that around 20-something UKR unit consisting of jeeps crossed the forest and in surprised attack took Dibrove at road to Kreminna. It was later partially confirmed by Rybar's map showing UKR jeep recon operating in the area.

[Huba]

47 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Last night six Shahed-136 drones attacked Bila Tserkva city in Kyiv oblast. AD can't spot them, so they successfully hit targets

Aftermath:

In comments somebody told this is military base of 72nd mech.brigade. Three barracks were hit. Unknown what sense of attack, when all brigade is on frontline and buildings were empty. Reportedly one civilian serviceman of brigade was wounded.   

So have anyone run into a more detailed description of these? I heard of claimed range of up to 1000km, but I assume there's no man in the loop then, and drones just kamikaze themselves using GPS/INS? In any case, these will be a rather hard to defend from. Perhaps locally, a modern mast-mounted radar and active-homing missiles should do the trick, like in case of IRIS-T and hopefully the incoming NASAMS. Hardly cost effective though  I guess EW is not worth much here, maybe some GPS spoofing ?
Oh, and Luka is really pushing it, I'm dead sure he'll get a spanking before this war is over...

[Grigb]

15 minutes ago, Huba said:

So the new Rybar map of Kherson is finally out. I looks like UA did indeed used this day for consolidation and clearing operations in newly captured territories. I suppose they'd like to resume the offensive actions ASAP to keep the momentum - we'll probably see tomorrow.

What is strange is that most of the new entry describes UA forces moving out of Mykolayiv to dispersed positions across the region. This I think is a pure  copium/ confabulation, in reality UA brigades seem to be concentrated more or less along the line of contact.

Yes, it is a very strange claim. RU claim that they stopped all attacks, but UKR claim they liberated a few villages. Guess we need to wait till morning. 

[Huba]

I don't think we are quite there yet, but I hope it happens at some point:

And another case:

 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

42 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Dibrova according to DeepState map is a grey zone. I also didn't see evidences that UKR forces eneterd there (not be confused with Dibrova nearby in Donetsk oblast next to Yampil)

Was the name confusion intentional? I mean...

[Haiduk]

37 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

there is nothing to gain and a lot to loose if Ukrainians will start to assassinate people in broad daylight just like this.

USA and Israel both are doing the same in peace time. We are at real war. Either what allowed to Yupiter is not allowed to the bull? %)

Our resistance/SOF/SBU assasinate non-combatant collaborators and traitors on occupied territories. So, we have to expect some looses because of this? But the war never holds in white gloves. 

37 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

nobody took him seriously. We discussed this already many times here- he was known to the westerners, but most experts seem to agree his significance was much infated compared to other "Kremlin ideologists".

Western experts didn't take seriously many things even after Munich spech of Putin, even war in Georgia. Main mistake of westren experts - they tried to fit Russia into western rationalism. This is not working.    

Edited October 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

58 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU claim - UKR are concentrating forces at Pershotravneve. Attack in 1-2 days. Svatove not Kreminna is main objective of the attack.

 

Well, there's no way to continue further east without Svatove, Kreminna on the other hand seems optional. The rail line from Kharkiv through Kupyansk goes there, as well as all the roads. In the near future it will probably become the main supply hub for operations in Luhansk oblast.

Edited October 5, 2022 by Huba