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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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3 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

And worth to remember these are probably civilians:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1567948887498887168

 

I should add that there is good chance that these are not just civilians:

  1. You do not keep UKR flag under RU occupation
  2. You do not keep drone under RU occupation
  3. And you do not run to put flag unless you are absolutely sure RU are not coming back (means have UKR troops around)

Most probably this is technical guy responsible for maintenance who volunteered to help AFU troops to put flag there. 

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2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

There are enough mistakes in this list and it of course not complete. Also you should know, that UKR brigades almost don't participate in operations as whole units. The same 93rd brigade fights from Kharkiv to Bakhmut. And elements of 72nd btigade were spotted on Balakliya offensive too. 

56th brigade is mot mech., but motorized. 

Except mech.troops, very important role are playing air-assault troops. At least one BTG of 80th brigade and 25th airborne brigade now on Balakliya axis (other likely in Pisky area and maybe in Kherson area), also on Balakliya axis probably 81st airmobile participates too. BTG of 79th - Siversk area, 46th brigade - Kherson, 95th - Izium (latter two likely in full composition) 

Thanks for the corrections!  I always take the OSINT with a grain of salt, especially because it's hard to see where the brigade's component pieces are located.  However, it is at least an indication of where the armor is.  Even if inaccurately :)

Yes, I didn't mention infantry of the very important airborne.  Having them all of a sudden in Kharkiv is definitely important to note.

Steve

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20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I hope you don't mind that I saved it for my "Funnies" folder.  Your contribution is #276.  Obviously I am selective in what I save :)

Steve

Oh, I shamelessly stole it from Twitter. I just couldn't be bothered fighting their system to quote only the bit that included it, so cheated and nicked the image - you can see from the URL..

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1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

RUMINT from Kherson direction

I will not translate all text, briefly - units of 20th MRD, which were deployed near Kyselivka and covered the road on Chornobaivka in the night on 8th Sep abandoned own positions without warning of own neighbours and withdrew to Dnieper. Ukrainans didn't spot in time Russian retreat and waste about half day, making recon, but now advance to Kyselivka and Russian arty keeps silence. Other units very angry on 20th MRD, but according to other source, retreated units got an order for redeployment to Inhulets area

If this is true, it's exactly what I've been expecting to see once the Ukrainians started to show concrete signs of taking back Kherson.  If it isn't true, it soon will be.

Assuming this is true, there's two possibilities:

  1. they simply broke and ran.  Safety in numbers, who is going to stop them?
  2. Russia now realizes that a) Kherson is lost and b) they can't stop the Kharkiv offensive so they pulled the unit out and did not make it widely know so as to avoid panicking the suckers that have to stay behind.

My vote is for #2.  It's a dick move and the Russians are dicks.

The unit I'm watching for significant information on is the 45th Spetsnaz in the northeastern corner of the fight.  If that unit pulls up stakes and heads for the Dnepr, I think we'll see a total collapse pretty quickly.  They might not be large in number, but they represent way more than that.  When a moblik sees the elite rats jumping ship, they're not going to want to be far behind.

Steve

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18 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Oh, I shamelessly stole it from Twitter. I just couldn't be bothered fighting their system to quote only the bit that included it, so cheated and nicked the image - you can see from the URL..

I presume all memes are "stolen" from somewhere.  Yes, I know someone has to make them.  Since AI isn't smart enough to have sharp wit, my best guess is some guy in Finland is cranking these things out all day long.  So whomever you are, and however many vowels you have in your name, I salute you!

Steve the Tired but Happy

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26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If you look closely in the second video you can see that they are actors.  A couple of times you can here them scream things in English with a British accent.  Probably MI6.

Sincerely,

Vlad the Imploder

Another proof that this is fake: the villagers were also already equipped with military-grade weapons - you can clearly see several tractors at the end of the video.

Edited by Letter from Prague
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Now, another play for this evening. People in comments compare position of moles on this guy cheeks in order to determine if it is him...🤣

Whack a mole

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another fake!  Look at the 35 mark and you can clearly make out Sir Elton John, one of MI6's most famous agents.

Sincerely,

Pissing In The Wind

Now, who else rewind to 0:35 to check if it is true...?😎

29 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sincerely,

Vlad the Imploder

Vlad The Self-Impaler

 

Ok, Too much beer this evening. But day is good, I hope gains in the North did not take  too many loosess.

Edited by Beleg85
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6 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Now, another play for this evening. People in comments compare position of moles on this guy cheeks in order to determine if it is him...🤣

Whack a mole

Now, who else rewind to 0:35 to check if it is true...?😎

Vlad The Self-Impaler

 

Ok, Too much beer this evening. But day is good, I hope gains in the North did not take  too many loosess.

They bagged a Lt Gen?  I thought this guy was a LCol.  What the hell is a Lt Gen doing far enough forward to get snatched?  

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Just now, The_Capt said:

They bagged a Lt Gen?  I thought this guy was a LCol.  What the hell is a Lt Gen doing far enough forward to get snatched?  

Almost certainly not the same guy. Also, putting on a Lt. Col. uniform to avoid being captured as a Lt. Gen. would be a weird gambit.

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7 minutes ago, asurob said:

I wonder how far we are away from a complete collapse of Russian forces and just what that looks like. If I was Vlad I'd wonder where the hell is my Air Force and why they aren't stemming the tide here

My guess it that it is a combo of things:

- Lack of effective CAS system in the RA

- Dispersed UA makes hard to find and hit concentrations

- Nasty UA ISR superiority plus wicked next-Gen MANPADS makes getting in and out very dangerous.

Add these up and…

Oh and getting airfields HIMARed or whatever that was, might also mean the Russian Air Force is also in the process of pulling back.

Edited by The_Capt
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14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Now, another play for this evening. People in comments compare position of moles on this guy cheeks in order to determine if it is him...🤣

Whack a mole

Sheesh, even Himler wasn't so stupid as to put in an officer's uniform.

It certainly looks like him.  Captured a LTG.  Wow.

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

 

Ok, Too much beer this evening. But day is good, I hope gains in the North did not take  too many loosess.

Full on agree.

Steve

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2 minutes ago, chrisl said:

The big mole and the earlobe look like a good match.  Chin looks consistent but harder to tell from the angle.

I knew eveyone here will get hooked on this...next 5 pages on this very topic. 😉

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sheesh, even Himler wasn't so stupid as to put in an officer's uniform.

It's Russian army...

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12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 

Oh and getting airfields HIMARed or whatever that was, might also mean the Russian Air Force is also in the process of pulling back.

AH those airfield attacks all part of what is shaping up to be a brilliant offensive...something I can't wait to hear about down the road.  I gotta be honest.  I have been bouncing about the house for the last week.  I cannot thank you guys enough for breaking this offensive down to simpler terms (you guy predicted it a month or so ago)  never mind the war down for swabbies like myself.  I really appreciate it.

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