How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

31 minutes ago, Desertor said:

Hybrid warfare!

Someone got jumpy and hit the silk a little early.

With the amount of aircraft and pilots Russia lost over the last half a year I doubt morale is very high among RU pilots.

[Haiduk]

SPG-9 crews in steppe

 

[Haiduk]

58 minutes ago, Desertor said:

Hybrid warfare!

This are words of Buk M1 battery commander Yarosalv Melnyk which was submited to the title Hero of Ukraine. This story as if happened in Kharkiv oblast in first weeks of the war. I doubt this is true, like and a story that oldman shot down Russian jet in Chernihiv with hunting rifle, where it flew over the roof of his house. Though, on the war can be anything and society during the war needs in such type of stories.

Also claimed his battery shot down 11 planes, 2 helicopters, 2 cruise missiles and 2 UAVs. As for me number of shot down planes obviously overestimated. I suppose, most of 236 jets, claimed  as shot down, indeed were decoys or just were "for good statistic". But this usual thing in any war. Each side in Korea, Vietnam, Israel-Arab wars claimed huge number of shot down aircraft and recognized minimal number of own losses. Since phone cameras, social networks and OSINT developmnet we can see more accurate picture 

Edited September 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Cederic]

 

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Cederic said:

 

Karma is harsh...

[Harmon Rabb]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

Karma is harsh...

Should be a hint that they are now second class citizens of Russia.

[Taranis]

Ukrainian military in Olhyne of Kherson region

 

 

[Calamine Waffles]

42 minutes ago, akd said:

Now they are hanging that soft bagged ERA on T-90M turrets, presumably salvaged from T-72B3Ms or T-80BVMs (no such “official” installation has been seen previously).  These tanks seem to have had some rough use based on the slat armor and signs that they might once have sported Nakikda thermal camo.  Oddly they have no unit markings, just rail transport markings I think.  Maybe delivered direct to front from factory or whatever facility holds them for Moscow parades, or just no point if you are going to cover the tank in Nakidka.

EDIT: Clip is from Biriuch, Belgorod Obl., just over the border.

Same YouTube account has a clip of a T-72B3M with a bunch of Kontakt-1 ERA added on top of the factory ERA:

https://youtu.be/i0AKqHiy-rU

The interesting part was the missing panoramic sight and the bent wind sensor.

[Haiduk]

Russian positions or ammo dump in Snihurivka was hit hard

[Letter from Prague]

I am surprised there still are Russian ammo dumps.

[Haiduk]

 

[Haiduk]

About 6 hours ago: vehicles on right bank near Kozatske [Nova Kakhovka area] were hit. Fuel trucks and something other stuff is burning

 

Edited September 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Karma is harsh...

You haven't been reading to the end of the ISW daily reports then... 

While there's defo some sympathetic citizens (as far as I, non-Ukrainian speaking western viewer can tell), the Ivan is using passportification to control access to basic services and aid.

You Need a water supply? Show us your Russian passport. You don't have one?  Well you're in Russia now, little brother  (no, no thank us later), Ukraine was a bad dream so here tick this box - and that box, give your name/address of  everyone in your extended family...

Ok done?... Right  sign here, congratulations you're a Russian citizen, Heil Putler, here's your permit for water.  Oh you want Electricity?  Got your Russian Passport? You need disability aid? Ok, show your Russian passport.  Need a parking spot?  Russian passport, please. Need a driver's licence?  Passport. Need a prescription?  Passport.  Need a library card?  Passport.  Need food aid?  Passport. Want to go to another city?  Passport.  No,  your Russian one, citizen. Oh and really you should help defend the Motherland from those child eating Nazis across the river,  so lucky you,  here's your papers,  Mobik, now you can thank us for liberating you -  with your life. 

You get the idea. 

Edited September 5, 2022 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

Revised list of Russian units - T-90M users (no more than company or some less each):

- 27th motor-rifle brigade, 1st TA, Western military district

- 1st motor-rifle regiment of 2nd "Tamanskaya" motor-rifle division, 1st TA, Western military district

- 503rd motor-rifle regiment of 19th motor-rifle division, 58th CAA, Southern military district 

- 3rd Army Corps (exact unit unknown)

Also some number in trainig centers:

- Kazan' tank military school

- 333rd combat training center

Maybe T-90M for 3rs Army Corps were gathered from other units. 

 

New 78th motor-rifle regiment established and filled with personnel in Chehen Repuplic in composition of 42nd motor-rifle division. This regiment got the name of Akhmat Kadyrov, so likely this will be first "personal" unit of Kadyrov in Army. Before he had only own troops in composition of Rosgvardiya and police. Many soldiers in 42nd division are Chechens (and they as well as other caucasians from 19th division were often mistakingly take as "kadyrov's troops") - likely 78th regment will be filled with Chechens only, but this is my opinion no more. 

Reportedly new regiment got T-72B3, BTR-82A and Akhmat armored cars (local Chechen design, already used in Ukraine)  

Edited September 5, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

42 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

You haven't been reading to the end of the ISW daily reports then... 

While there's defo some sympathetic citizens (as far as I, non-Ukrainian speaking western viewer can tell), the Ivan is using passportification to control access to basic services and aid.

You Need a water supply? Show us your Russian passport. You don't have one?  Well you're in Russia now, little brother  (no, no thank us later), Ukraine was a bad dream so here tick this box - and that box, give your name/address of  everyone in your extended family...

Ok done?... Right  sign here, congratulations you're a Russian citizen, Heil Putler, here's your permit for water.  Oh you want Electricity?  Got your Russian Passport? You need disability aid? Ok, show your Russian passport.  Need a parking spot?  Russian passport, please. Need a driver's licence?  Passport. Need a prescription?  Passport.  Need a library card?  Passport.  Need food aid?  Passport. Want to go to another city?  Passport.  No,  your Russian one, citizen. Oh and really you should help defend the Motherland from those child eating Nazis across the river,  so lucky you,  here's your papers,  Mobik, now you can thank us for liberating you -  with your life. 

You get the idea. 

I have a fairly strong impression the uptake has been fairly low, but maybe the Russians have put enough pressure on to increase it? For that matter the way they are literally kidnapping people off the street in Donestk, I doubt they care about your passport if they catch you sitting still in Melitipol.

I also doubt the military utility of forcibly recruiting people who will surrender, desert, or betray you at the first possible opportunity. But then nothing the Russians have done has made much sense.

Edited September 5, 2022 by dan/california

[Kinophile]

AFAICT,  the voluntary uptake in intact towns, cities etc has been very low, but in the more demolished urban areas it's pretty much unavoidable, if you want to live day to day or provide for others. 

It's brutally simple and cruel, as Russian as it gets. Invade a country, then forcibly (directly with violence or obliquely, like above and also by threatening the children* with deportation) citizinize what you've conquered and use them as cannon fodder in your ongoing invasion. 

B#st@rds. 

 

*And when those children turn 18 ,Mobilize them also. It's a human combine harvester that feeds itself. Utterly vile. 

Edited September 5, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

42 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Revised list of Russian units - T-90M users (no more than company or some less each):

- 27th motor-rifle brigade, 1st TA, Western military district

- 1st motor-rifle regiment of 2nd "Tamanskaya" motor-rifle division, 1st TA, Western military district

- 503rd motor-rifle regiment of 19th motor-rifle division, 58th CAA, Southern military district 

- 3rd Army Corps (exact unit unknown)

Also some number in trainig centers:

- Kazan' tank military school

- 333rd combat training center

Maybe T-90M for 3rs Army Corps were gathered from other units. 

 

New 78th motor-rifle regiment established and filled with personnel in Chehen Repuplic in composition of 42nd motor-rifle division. This regiment got the name of Akhmat Kadyrov, so likely this will be first "personal" unit of Kadyrov in Army. Before he had only own troops in composition of Rosgvardiya and police. Many soldiers in 42nd division are Chechens (and they as well as other caucasians from 19th division were often mistakingly take as "kadyrov's troops") - likely 78th regment will be filled with Chechens only, but this is my opinion no more. 

Reportedly new regiment got T-72B3, BTR-82A and Akhmat armored cars (local Chechen design, already used in Ukraine)  

Kadyriv gets an actual army div.  Hmmm.  Sounds like the core of a future Chechen Army.  RU Army must have fought this tooth and nail. I've already got an alternate name  for these brave, brave warriors:

1st Chechen Guard "Death To Traffic Lights"  Division.

Eh yup

Edited September 5, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Concerned more about the same phenomenon happening to the Ukrainians as the war grinds on. Russian can replace poor leadership with more poor leadership. Even if the casualty rate is lower for Ukraine, their crack NCOs and officers are difficult to replace with similar quality troops short term. Let's hope this is balanced out by self-motivated individuals that are far less reliant on superiors compared to the Russians.  

Concern is valid, however there is likely a difference between the exposure to risk on the two sides.  Russia's lack of NCOs means the officers need to be up front doing things that normally officers don't do, or at least to the same extent, with NATO forces.  As Ukraine is shifting over to a more NATO system of command, it could be that Ukraine's officers are not as likely to be exposed to death as Russia's.

That and we can hope that Ukraine's officers aren't as stupid as Russia's

Steve 

[akd]

20 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Kadyriv gets an actual army div.  Hmmm.  Sounds like the core of a future Chechen Army.  RU Army must have fought this tooth and nail. I've already got an alternate name  for these brave, brave warriors:

1st Chechen Guard "Death To Traffic Lights"  Division.

Eh yup

A regiment, which will probably end up being a single BTG in reality.

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Concern is valid, however there is likely a difference between the exposure to risk on the two sides.  Russia's lack of NCOs means the officers need to be up front doing things that normally officers don't do, or at least to the same extent, with NATO forces.  As Ukraine is shifting over to a more NATO system of command, it could be that Ukraine's officers are not as likely to be exposed to death as Russia's.

That and we can hope that Ukraine's officers aren't as stupid as Russia's

Steve 

And the thing Russia is going to be terribly short of is technical specialists, Radar, EW, FDC, FO, and higher level repair people for pretty much everything. The Russians are burning thru a twenty year accumulation in all of these folks, and is already eating its seed corn by sending its training cadres to the front. It makes it even worse that a lot of the Russian equipment is more sensitive to operator quality and experience. The specialist the Ukrainians need are being trained in every military school in Europe, and when that wasn't enough Canada and Australia sent people to help. In three to six months in a whole bunch of areas the Ukrainians will get better as the Russians get worse, maybe sooner.

I read a really good article about this three months ago and now I can't find it again...

 

[Battlefront.com]

I know the discussion about the pipelines has been well addressed already, but there was a small (but significant) element that was not explicitly mentioned.

Pipelines have a flow.  Duh   On the receiving end it has to be something for it to flow into.  Duh, again!  It makes no sense to exceed the capacity as fuel in the ground doesn't do anybody any good.  Duh, yet again!  With the obvious started, I'll move onto my point.

The volume of fuel Russia needs to get over the river is huge, which means whatever their flow capacity is has to be equaled by the ability to move the fuel once it arrives to the other side.

Russia could have some cleverly hidden storage tanks to pump into or simply pump directly into a truck.  Either way, the rate of fuel supply to the troops is directly proportionally to how many trucks they can fill per day.  The more trucks, the greater the chance that Ukraine will spot the activity and HIRAMS it.  The reduction of trucks per day to minimize detection would likely be insufficient to do more than make a tiny dent in supply need.

When I see someone talking about logistics that hasn't bothered to do basic math (even if gut math) is not someone worth listening to if they continually make that sort of mistake.  It hints that the person is lacking some basic knowledge of how logistics work or at least how they apply to military operations.

Looking at the summary of the video I'd say the arguments he pushed are akin to those made by people to convince us the war wasn't going badly for Russia because they have something up their sleeve we haven't seen yet.

Steve

[sburke]

33 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It hints that the person is lacking some basic knowledge of how logistics work or at least how they apply to military operations.

Steve

or a deliberate refusal to do the math to explain their hypo cause they know it is BS anyway.

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

or a deliberate refusal to do the math to explain their hypo cause they know it is BS anyway.

Thinking of it, this might've been the case a bit - dude made a rather defeatistic rant on Twitter a day ago and got bashed, the podcast was released a day later. Thinking if it, col. Lewandowski was rather modest with his opinions, it was the host jumping to conclusions. Anyway, forum put the silliness to rest, and good riddance it was

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

Putin Forces 'Confused' by Ukraine Strikes, Headed for Surrender: General (msn.com)

 

Now, this is a fun read!  For those who are not aware, Mark Hertling was one of few former high ranking officers that has been calling the war correctly fright from the start.

This is one of the most important points in the article:
 

Quote

Hertling shared more in-depth tactical observations in another Twitter thread. He noted that Ukrainian forces had begun "shaping operations"—or countering the enemy's ability to affect their maneuvers—using a combination of long- and short-range artillery strikes, Special Operations Forces, small unit teams and resistance warfare.

The people who are thinking the offensive isn't going well for Ukraine because it hasn't taken large amounts of territory in the first few days clearly don't understand what Ukraine is trying to do.  And that is to "shape" things so that you don't have to fight for every single meter of ground by forcing all of Russia's problems in Kherson (no resupply, poor morale, degraded capabilities, etc.) to come to a head.  So far, it looks like it's going very well.  This map that Grigb made clearly shows this:

Ukraine has already made Russia's positions in the northeastern line highly vulnerable as it has clipped the primary supply routes in two places.  The positions along the Inhulets River, the most defensible of the entire line, no longer have primary roads for resupply.  Looking at secondary roads... not a pretty picture.  Looks like there's a decent road going to Velyka Oleksandrivka, but it is inferior in terms of distance and capacity.  Russia needs less stress on their logistics, not more.

Some speculation here... I don't expect that Russia has constructed significant backup lines of defense in the interior.  I highly doubt whatever they did establish are designed well enough to keep the Ukrainians from advancing from multiple directions simultaneously. 

The bigger problem for Russia is that once their forces pull back... will they do so in a disciplined way like the Ukrainians have repeatedly done, or are they going to be trashed to the point that they can't mount an effective defense?  If they do, how much of a fight might they put up from a secondary position?  Third position?

The destruction of supply dumps all throughout this area a HUGE problem.  How much of their limited supplies are in the vicinity of the backup positions?  The further away they are, the more novel the paths to get the supplies to where they are needed, the less likely they will get there.  Russian communications and coordination hasn't shown itself very capable when under stress.

Bottom line, Ukraine is getting the Russian front to move.  That's difficult for a defender to do even when conditions are favorable.  I think we can all agree that Russia's situation is not favorable.  Ukraine did a lot to make that happen already and is doing more by the day.

Steve

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Now, this is a fun read!  For those who are not aware, Mark Hertling was one of few former high ranking officers that has been calling the war correctly fright from the start.

This is one of the most important points in the article:
 

The people who are thinking the offensive isn't going well for Ukraine because it hasn't taken large amounts of territory in the first few days clearly don't understand what Ukraine is trying to do.  And that is to "shape" things so that you don't have to fight for every single meter of ground by forcing all of Russia's problems in Kherson (no resupply, poor morale, degraded capabilities, etc.) to come to a head.  So far, it looks like it's going very well.  This map that Grigb made clearly shows this:

Ukraine has already made Russia's positions in the northeastern line highly vulnerable as it has clipped the primary supply routes in two places.  The positions along the Inhulets River, the most defensible of the entire line, no longer have primary roads for resupply.  Looking at secondary roads... not a pretty picture.  Looks like there's a decent road going to Velyka Oleksandrivka, but it is inferior in terms of distance and capacity.  Russia needs less stress on their logistics, not more.

Some speculation here... I don't expect that Russia has constructed significant backup lines of defense in the interior.  I highly doubt whatever they did establish are designed well enough to keep the Ukrainians from advancing from multiple directions simultaneously. 

The bigger problem for Russia is that once their forces pull back... will they do so in a disciplined way like the Ukrainians have repeatedly done, or are they going to be trashed to the point that they can't mount an effective defense?  If they do, how much of a fight might they put up from a secondary position?  Third position?

The destruction of supply dumps all throughout this area a HUGE problem.  How much of their limited supplies are in the vicinity of the backup positions?  The further away they are, the more novel the paths to get the supplies to where they are needed, the less likely they will get there.  Russian communications and coordination hasn't shown itself very capable when under stress.

Bottom line, Ukraine is getting the Russian front to move.  That's difficult for a defender to do even when conditions are favorable.  I think we can all agree that Russia's situation is not favorable.  Ukraine did a lot to make that happen already and is doing more by the day.

Steve

So how many RA troops north of that river?  Was it 20-25k, assuming they only take half, that is a lot of PoWs to deal with.  Well looks like the Russians have a new clever strategy to hurt UA logistics; overburden it with Russian prisoners of war.  

Seriously, don’t mobilize just take 2 million Russian fighting age males, dress them in something that looks like a uniform, walk them over and surrender.  Saves a ton of money and cuts out the problematic killing/dying part.  UA buckles under weight of PoWs and sues for peace, the West sees poor Russian prisoners looking very sad and falters - now that is thinking outside the box!