How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Night seems to be quiet except fires at Schechenivka village

 

So possibly at night UKR made a new push

 

Probing RU defenses and striking where there is weak spot to force RU to commit another reserve unit there? 

[Grigb]

9 hours ago, danfrodo said:

and just what is that supposed to mean?  Perhaps he wants to attack Poland?  Or launch offensive from Byelarus?  Nuclear dirty bomb via power plant?  What measures does this clown have in mind???  The right measure was pull out of Kherson to shore up the rest of the stolen territory.  That was the only measure they had.  

As already mentioned, they want strikes at UKR gov buildings, bridges, electrical stations + anything that hurts the civilian population. 

[Grigb]

RU reports that the new UKR landing at the station was destroyed but with difficulty because they do not have enough equipment. 

Not enough equipment to destroy an imaginary landing. I have a feeling they are going to lose eventually to another imaginary landing. 

[Grigb]

RU performed CBRN training

Quote

The servicemen of the forward detachment of the Eastern Military District conducted reconnaissance of the column route in order to identify chemical toxic substances during one of the episodes of the strategic command and staff exercise "Vostok-2022".

 

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

RU reports that the new UKR landing at the station was destroyed but with difficulty because they do not have enough equipment. 

Not enough equipment to destroy an imaginary landing. I have a feeling they are going to lose eventually to another imaginary landing. 

A few years back in Belarus they were doing military exercises against an imaginary country of Weisnoria.

They suffered real casualties.

[Grigb]

Women in Donetsk are getting angry because they have no water for 6 months (you can guess why women).

 

Local Gauleiter send them to... where URK are sending RU warships. He has his own well so no problem. And if locals are displeased with occasional water tanker then he can stop sending them. 

[UPDATE] I mean, pressure inside the L-DPR pressure cooker is nearing social explosion level. And that's before winter.

Edited September 3, 2022 by Grigb

[Beleg85]

Just a small info- Ukrainians gave titles to several brigades fighting in Southern front, clearly underlaying their importance at this area (Inhuletsk, Stepova etc.) .Under post, interesting comments on Soviet and Ukrainian naming conventions. Of note is 110th Brigade received title of Gen.Bezruchka, another common hero-figure between UA and PL . Good. :

 

Edited September 3, 2022 by Beleg85

[Huba]

Video of Bayraktar taking out a tank, plus UA GS claim of many more. 

 

[Haiduk]

On 9/2/2022 at 1:46 PM, Grigb said:

Today Shoigu declared  - they liberated Blagodatne and reached Mykolev region border. Glorious Victory, comrades! While UKR are making pathetic attempts at advancing we are making real progress!

But let's look at the map 

They already liberated it sometime ago and it is right on the border. And with new offensive it simply became contested. Nothing changed from an objective point of view. 

This is the second fake victory RU military manufacture in a span of two days. But you do not need to manufacture fakes if you are already defeating UKR. Just saying...

 

I suppose, this is another "geographical cretinism" of Russian MoD. Blahodatne on M14 road still occupied since a spring and in better case was contested area. They captured other Blahodatne in Snihurivka area, but this village is already located in Mykolaiv oblast. By the way this area abounds with small villages with the same names, so even UKR social media and sometime journalists confuse its. For example villages Blahodatne and nearby located Kyselivka exist near M14 road and at the same time the same pair of close located villages with the same names are in Snihurivka area. 

[Huba]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

Rybar made big claims yesterday about Bridgeheads battle that require independent confirmation. So, I will wait for it. However there is one interesting claim that seems to be confirmed by other RU Nats.

Previously RU aviation avoided getting close and personal with dumb bombs due to lessons inflicted on it by UKR MANPADs. It seems yesterday RU aviation got an order to attach dumb bombs and start getting close and personal. And yes, as usual - millions of killed UKR troops. 

• The situation is not as favorable to RU as RU claims.
• RU aviation is committed to battle in the worst possible way and the question is if UKR will be able to attrit it.   

This is interesting, as there isn't a corresponding increase in shootdowns from UA side. I'd guess that if some pilots are actually coerced to strap the iron bombs, they will just drop them short or toss inefectually from a distance. Overflying UA lines == certain death, there's no doubt about it. 

Edited September 3, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

14 hours ago, Grigb said:

Another sober assessment from frontlines

DRG with the size of reinforced company sounds implausible (it is usually squad sized unit). Most likely he wants to downplay the issue - it is just DRG, nothing to see here!

Here this destroyed Pantsyr 

And geolocation. Oleshky town outskirts. Reportedly UKR have conducted several strikes on the road near Kozatske (right bank, Nova Kakhovka area) and Oleshky (left bank) at Russian troops and ammo dumps.

Edited September 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

New strike on Russian ammo dump or troops camp in Oleshky industrial zone

[Haiduk]

This night Russians launched five Kalibrs on Dnipro city, all misisiles were intercepted by AD. Likely this is third time, when our AD neutralizes mass salvo completely 

[Beleg85]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

To me this seems to be more evidence of warning shots against the highly visible RU Nat celebrities.  Especially ones with strong ties to DLPR, such as WarGonzo has.  Which gets me back to a point we've danced around with a little bit.

Possible, however it is still too early to tell if it is already a pattern or just another incident. Small cracks on opposition on both sides (short arrests, interrogations, threats etc.) are fairly common along the board back and then, just to remind people that it is state mafia who is The Ultimate mafia.

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

One theory is that this is because these guys have influential people keeping them out of trouble.  That might have been the case at some time in the last 8 years, but I don't think that's what's going on now.  Putin doesn't seem to be the sort to let something like this slide just because the guy that set him up with his last 5 mistresses asked Putin to give these guys a break.  Especially now that the war is going so horribly wrong and the RU Nat voices are getting even more critical and specific.

Logically, if Putin is not acting against these guys because of influence, then he must not be acting against them for some other reason.  Laziness?  Nope.  Lack of resources?  Nope.  Inability to clamp down on many people at once?  Nope.  Keep looking for reasons and one will find yourself looking at the most likely reason -> fear.

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I don't think it is a leap to ascribe fear of consequences for Putin's lack of direct and overt action against the leading RU Nats' voices.

Once again being logical about this, if Putin fears acting against these guys because of the possible consequences, then Putin must perceive the consequences as being fairly dangerous to him.  That means the RU Nats are dangerous.

I think this is better presumption than the RU Nats are just an annoyance that Putin, for some reason, isn't concerned about.

I'd disagree about fear part; the rest holds water, especially part about "powerful back" that supposedly shields them against Putin's will (nothing do, if he really wants). Kremlin doesn't fear them, it is much too big word here- if it would, general population would immediatelly feel it. However it is true he may find that he "overinvested" in whole movement too much (still debatable, though), and silencing them brings more harm than benefits for now. The most probable reason Kremlin not finishing Girkinoids careers is simply he find them useful for something.

It is ofc a Riddle of this war why the hell these guys are still broadcating (and note, there are only handful of them- 3-4 important personas with rather medium amount of viewers). What can it be? If I 'd be forced to put money, it would be they keep military Top Brass + generally more ambitious and active parts of Russian mil/sec apparatus in check. It is good to have few pitbulls barking under relative control to use them as scarecrows against all other, and possibly more serious, malkontents. They are also useful to scare pragmatists and opportunists that constitute soemthing like maybe 90% of state apparatus. The more crazy they are the better; their whinings do some damage of course, but it is well known practice of Soviet/Russian state apparatus to do checks and balances in such cases. It plays very well to Putin's charisma as Great and Reasonable stabilizer. Compared to other Russian leaders, Putin is actually very mild domestically, using violence as last resort- it sounds absurd to our tastes if we remember Litvinienko, Nemtsov etc., but Russians themselves seem to view it this way, and very positively. Even Navalny is somehow still among living.

There are other possible reasons. They are effectively supporting war effort and very useful at that. They also help spreading the word of Great Russia, which if kept under relative controll, is quite useful in current circumstances.

Ofc . it may be that Kremlin is severly underestimating their importance in the end (internet can be tricky in this regard, as it is difficult to guess how much real phenomenon can be), and in the future they can give it several nasty surprises. But for now eveything still seems to be in check. And regime has whole collection of cards he can play. And sticks, clubs, brass knuckles, revolvers, rifles etc. if they will ever be needed.

Edited September 3, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

Author claims command&observation post of 205th cossack motor-rifle brigade was hit near Snihurivka, but this is RUMINT of course...

 

[Haiduk]

Kherson oblast. Next Russian position in treeplant is taken. Bikes and late-soviet Volga car were looted by Russians in nearby village and then abandoed. UKR troops captured BMP-2 with "O" marking

 

[benpark]

There's going to be a lot of heavy equipment left on the western side that can't be pulled out by ferry. All easily used and ammo'ed up by the Ukrainian forces.

Another useless attempt to stave off disaster along a bad position near a river in order to hold a city for political gain.

 

Edited September 3, 2022 by benpark

[Haiduk]

UKR vehicles are crossing the river

 

Edited September 3, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Maybe this is should be called "supressive fire" %) The work of UKR BTR machinegunner

 

[Haiduk]

Turkish Kirpi MRAP. Kherson front. As I can recall, Kirpi got some marines units.

[Haiduk]

National Guard unit SPG-9 crew fires with OG-9 FRAG ammunition, somewhere on Kharkiv front. If in 2014-2015 main ammunitin for this weapon were PG-9 HEAT ammo, then now it mostly became OG-9

 

[DesertFox]

Phillips OBrien on EW, always worth a read:

 

 

[DesertFox]

Ponton and soon HIMARs time at Nova Kakhovka

 

 

[Haiduk]

Likely SOF walked through the border %)

 

[DesertFox]

Kherson: