How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

"Our troops left a number of settlements that were taken by us with great difficulty. I understand the withdrawal was for tactical reasons, apparently if was difficult to hold them" - this can be the description of the whole war basically

In some other news, Ukrainian refugees brought to Poland everything but crisis:

Some concrete info about UA progress started to appear. If that's correct, a considerable length of Inghulets is already in UA hands or Russians in Lozove are about to be encircled:

 

Edited August 29, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]

 

Maps are so useful for emphasizing the current position of Russian logistics on the north bank. If Ukraine truly has launched a offensive, Russian units are basically almost entirely cut off from land based resupply.

Did they ever move the helicopter base in Kherson airport? I know it's still used but I don't think Russia has helicopters staged there anymore right?

Edit: looks like the tweet was updated to reflect additional crossings

Edited August 29, 2022 by FancyCat

[Huba]

Just now, FancyCat said:

 

Maps are so useful for emphasizing the current position of Russian logistics on the north bank. If Ukraine truly has launched a offensive, Russian units are basically almost entirely cut off from land based resupply.

Did they ever move the helicopter base in Kherson airport? I know it's still used but I don't think Russia has helicopters staged there anymore right?

There was at least 30 artillery strikes at Chronobayivka, it's almost a meme now. No way they could have a permanent chopper presence there. This being said, I don't think that UA could prevent Russian helicopters from doing the resupply - but this isn't a way to deliver artillery ammunition in numbers that RU needs, as well as vehicles and heavy equipment.

In the meantime, some confirmation that UA is advancing:

 

[Beleg85]

Ok, came back after several days off. A lot of good content, now I have 10 pages to read especially about Nats and power system in Russia. This thread just keeps giving.

Just a short thought:

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The only thing a power bloc wants less than to have Putin's job is to have a rival bloc get it. 

The problem is we don't really even know what current power blocks are. And if they really exists, how coherent they are. We know FSB is here, but how powerful and independent of Kremlin they really are? Do intra-service loyalty is stronger than differences between its various departments? Can we talk about FSB as separate entity pursuing one, coherent political vector? Hard to say.

Military? A lot of voices of discontent against Shoigu, to the point of Putin directly giving orders to separate corpses. And we have undoubtedly various groups inside military itself, that may fight between for example different branches. So again, institution may be too divided to present one block. Which probably suits Putin himself- it was designed that way, probably.

Even worse is the case with oligarchs- they never were a bunch of guys that could direct any coherent political actions; rather, they should be viewed as galactic of various competing random business interests. Almost nothing joins for example Prigozin-types and Abramovich, except being in the same room as their master and taking his orders.

Now don't get me wrong, you guys have many good points, especially with historical analogies. The problem is Putin's Russia ticks very differently than late USSR with its very well carved and relatively independent fiefdooms-competitors. Ans we saw so many completelly wrong "kremlinologists" in the last years (it was even worse than the case with most serious military analysts being completelly wrong about this war) that it is damn near impossible to tell even how many "figures and pawns" we have on this chessboard. Much less how they would move and what they want to achieve.

As of now, most of the "blocks" look rather like blobs of conformist servants without one cause or coherency, trying to guess what the will of the Chief will be. We would need to witness some kind of deus ex machina to move them to form properly and do something meaningful indeed.

 

Meanwhile:

 

Edited August 29, 2022 by Beleg85

[Calamine Waffles]

9 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Did they ever move the helicopter base in Kherson airport? I know it's still used but I don't think Russia has helicopters staged there anymore right?

There's nowhere else to move them to other than improvised fields with no infrastructure.

[Thomm]

Kiew meldet Frontdurchbruch in Südukraine

Im südukrainischen Gebiet Cherson sollen ukrainische Truppen die russischen Frontlinien durchbrochen haben. „Die Streitkräfte der Ukraine haben Offensivhandlungen in vielen Abschnitten im Süden der Ukraine begonnen“, zitierte das Internetportal Hromadske die Pressesprecherin der Südgruppe der ukrainischen Armee, Natalija Humenjuk.

Einheiten der Donezker Separatisten und unterstützender russischer Marineinfanterie sollen zum Rückzug gezwungen worden sein. Genauere Ortsangaben wurden nicht gemacht. Die Angaben ließen sich nicht unabhängig überprüfen.

... from http://www.orf.at

Ukrainian troops broke through Russian front line in Kherson, going on the offensive in many sectors in the south of Ukraine.

Units of the separatists and supporting Russian paratroopers were forced to retreat.

 

[Beleg85]

Fairly balanced opinion:

On the other side, there are reports of using heavy artillery, tanks and even airforce by UA. Interesting. And timing is just about right: almost beginning of new month. Even Monday adds to this logic.

So it may be real.

Edited August 29, 2022 by Beleg85

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Fairly balanced opinion:

On the other side, there are reports of using heavy artillery, tanks and even airforce by UA. Interesting. And timing is just about right: almost beginning of new month. Even Monday adds to this logic.

So it may be real.

Yup, something is happening definitely, it's just not clear how big it is. IMO just getting Russians to move would be good, as it's easier to hit them when they're out of hiding:

 

 

[AlsatianFelix]

Doesn't General Mud show up in October in Ukraine? Best to make your gains before then. Russia's new Third Corps better come with galoshes and logs, or else people might think it's just a safe ghost unit to stick ethnic Russians into as a sort of Reserve Army to protect Putin.

Edited August 29, 2022 by AlsatianFelix

[Haiduk]

The traitor, deputy of parliament and member of president's party "Servant of people" Oleksiy Kovaliov (or maybe better in Russian spelling Alexey Kovalyov), who became "agricalture minister of Kherson oblast" was shot dead by Resistance in own home in Hola Prystan' settlement. Partisans also heavy wounded his cohabitant, later she has died in hospital.

Also in Mykhaylivka settlement, Zaporizhzhia oblast, were recently local colalborant,  "head of town council" was IEDed, was found hanged the chief of local police. Before the war he was retired officer of Border Guard Service and was a head of local border guards veteran's union. After Russians came, he offered them his service, but looks like has choosen wrong ticket. 

Edited August 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[Calamine Waffles]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

The traitor, deputy of parliament and member of president's party "Servant of people" Oleksiy Kovaliov (or maybe better in Russian spelling Alexey Kovalyov), who became "agricalture minister of Kherson oblast" was shot dead by Resistance in own home in Hola Prystan' settlement. Partisans also heavy wounded his cohabitant, later she has died in hospital.

Also in Mykhaylivka settlement, Zaporizhzhia oblast, were recently local colalborant,  "head of town council" was IEDed, was found hanged the chief of local police. Before the war he was retired officer of Border Guard Service and was a head of local border guards veteran's union. After Russians came, he offered them his service, but looks like has choosen wrong ticket. 

 

[Grigb]

36 minutes ago, Huba said:

Yup, something is happening definitely, it's just not clear how big it is. IMO just getting Russians to move would be good, as it's easier to hit them when they're out of hiding:

 

 

No worries - new Grigb map to the rescue!

Discussion of what we know so far: 

• We have two local pushes - at Inhulets bridgehead and in the area of Visokopilly + massed HIMARS strike at Chernobaivka (looks like this time the target is not airport but RU positions at settlement itself)
• It seems UKR were waiting for RU to commit 3 AK. Once they detected it was committed at Donetsk (see my earlier map) they started their push in Kherson. 

[FancyCat]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

• It seems UKR were waiting for RU to commit 3 AK. Once they detected it was committed at Donetsk (see my earlier map) they started their push in Kherson. 

Grigb, good point..3rd Army Corps is inbound, but are we sure they are wholly deployed in Donetsk? If they are deployed, there are no rail lines from Donetsk to Kherson, their heavy equipment would have to go via Rostov-Crimea to Kherson I suppose?

 

[Huba]

More details inbound. If true, it suggests  a general route...

 

[FancyCat]

The symbolism for the offensive if true is there at least.

 

[Calamine Waffles]

If this turns into a rout, the only shame is that it's not winter so the Russians won't experience their own Berezina.

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

And some UA officials comment on the matter. TBH if they were really at it, they wouldn't say a word I think. Perhaps it's a ruse to make RU move their reserves, that can then be attacked? 

There is an argument for making the announcement. The UA would certainly be happier with Russian forces spooked and moving rather than grimly hanging on in their positions.  

[Haiduk]

One of today's strikes on Kherson - UKR missiles hit former enlistment center, which also had big facility for temporary deployment of recruits. Russian troops, of course, were deployed there

Also there were strikes on left bank of Dnieper in Oleshky area, where Russian 127th MRD is deployed. 

 

Strike on Beryslav town, local machine-buiding factory, where allegedly Russians deployed own vehcles, was hit

 

[Huba]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

There is an argument for making the announcement. The UA would certainly be happier with Russian forces spooked and moving rather than grimly hanging on in their positions.  

Sure, it's all a PSYOP to some degree (perhaps even in it's essence). Some clarification/context:

 

[FancyCat]

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

There is an argument for making the announcement. The UA would certainly be happier with Russian forces spooked and moving rather than grimly hanging on in their positions.  

Putin seems intent on holding Kherson. The possibility of a top down ordered withdrawal is probably nil. More important is generating panic, as Huba notes, small offensive actions and minor pushes won't give Russians in the rear the fear to escape. A large scale offensive designed to take territory? Much more scary, and so keeping offensive noises quiet isn't as useful as boasting of the impending defeat. The best scenario for Ukraine is Russian forces leaving the north bank without the need for killing them, which is still possible I believe for pedestrians.

 

Edited August 29, 2022 by FancyCat

[Haiduk]

Russian TG claims UKR forces threw 13 tanks in the battle near Posad-Pokrovske village (UKR controlled) - this is on M14 road Mykolaiv - Kherson

[Calamine Waffles]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Russian TG claims UKR forces threw 13 tanks in the battle near Posad-Pokrovske village (UKR controlled) - this is on M14 road Mykolaiv - Kherson

Quite large, that's a full company's worth.

[kevinkin]

Listed in one article:

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3597492-heres-every-weapon-us-has-supplied-to-ukraine-with-13-billion/?utm_source=sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=dfn-ebb&SToverlay=2002c2d9-c344-4bbb-8610-e5794efcfa7d

 

[Grigb]

18 minutes ago, Huba said:

More details inbound. If true, it suggests  a general route...

 

Route so far is unlikely. Here is next map: Tomarion is located near the area where they kept reserves. To drive to the front line from Tomarino you have to go back in direction of Beryslav. For locals that will look like you are running away. But most probably they are committing reserves.

Discussion:

• RU leaving Tomarin is most likely - reserves are moving to the front line at Davydiv Brid
• Apart from Bridgehead and Visokpillya UKR are probing frontline at other places for weaknesses but looks like no major push yet.

30 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Grigb, good point..3rd Army Corps is inbound, but are we sure they are wholly deployed in Donetsk? If they are deployed, there are no rail lines from Donetsk to Kherson, their heavy equipment would have to go via Rostov-Crimea to Kherson I suppose?

 

As far as remember Kherson is cut except pontoon or barge crossings. No way 3 AK can get there in time.

[Grigb]

18 minutes ago, Huba said:

Sure, it's all a PSYOP to some degree (perhaps even in it's essence). Some clarification/context:

 

Good point but Tamaryne guys unlikely to run. So far Davidy Brid guys are not running and they are much closer to the frontline and action.