How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Letter from Prague]

10 minutes ago, Maquisard manqué said:

Good point. Russians can do logistics properly, it’s just whether the incentives are there for them to do so.

Of course civilian Russians can. But the armed forces are completely different world in many ways, I would say.

Even if someone high enough managed to make the call "let's ask the people who do logistics for living how to do it properly", turning around organizational culture is always difficult.

And of course they would have to start confiscating forklifts and trucks from companies, and I'm not sure that would go much better than mobilization.

 

22 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Back to the airfield. Didn't someone recently give a load of laser guided bombs to Ukraine? They degraded air defenses a day or so ahead of the airfield attack. If there was an open corridor could SOF had laser designators and a lone high altitude fighter bomber dropped bombs for them? That could explain the lack of hearing missile strikes or seeing them come in (missile is much bigger than a bomb). Also plays into the extreme range and pinpoint accuracy. Of course this assumes that the RA didn't have air defenses on or near the airfield, but with all the other oversight I wouldn't be surprised.

Not a big air guy so there are probably a lot of holes in this hypothesis but just thought I'd throw it out there as another option.

EDIT: Normally you'd think that Ukraine would put a press release out if it was an airstrike and then slap the RA around with some good memes, but if there is/was an SOF component on the ground they wouldn't want to compromise them. I think someone a few pages back advised that the UAF didn't have airframes that could use laser guided munitions on their own so they would have to have ground assets. This also plays into the west denying they made the weapons as I think they came from Turkey or somewhere in that area.

Hmmm.

The Russians claim S-400 has range of 400+ kilometers for both radar and missiles. Even adjusted for Russian overstating of capabilities, disrepair and incompetence, high-altitude flying would mean making a bet there's no radar and launcher at least 100 km from your path. Even with a lot of the AD severely degraded or foolishly moved to Kherson, this seems like a losing bet, so I don't think that's it.

Of course, in theory F-22s dropping Ukrainian made bombs would be consistent with the statement "it was not Wester made weapon that caused this" but I don't think that is the level of insanity we are up to yet  

Edited August 16, 2022 by Letter from Prague

[akd]

Interview with an LNR “mobik”:

 

[Calamine Waffles]

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

I like how all Nazi literature is written exclusively in russian. Only a true Ukrainian Nazi will read that.

This is good one. But very far behind other scenes. Best I saw so far comes from early in the war- there was material from one Russian broadcaster about super-trained (and apparently bloody sophisticated) British mercenaries. Presenter carefully investigated their lair, proudly showing books of Shakespeare and Jane Austen as proofs. Books ofc were in Russian, but you know, Perfiduus Albion and all of that...

2nd was when local (if I remember correctly) Donetsk television crew found satanists' hut in one of captured villages. It had very nice altar covered in pentagrams and carefully folded t-shirts with symbols of goats, death-metal bands and ofc Bandera. There was even woodoo doll covered in some signs.

 

[Ts4EVER]

Probably their offensive interrupted some Ukrainian soldiers' Dungeons and Dragons game and now the Russians are shaking in their boots from evil satanist hexes put on them.

[Haiduk]

Some clarifications about todays "cottons" in Crimea.

1. Ammunition depots were struck not in the center of Mayske village (16 km SE from Dzhankoy) but on the village outskirts, were ammo dump was established on the territory of abandoned cow sheds. Locals, which were evacuated from Mayske and Azovske told after detonations began, "soldiers ran away on tanks". So, part of vehicles near railroad had time to escape. But anyway, part of them were destroyed/damaged, because ralway was damaged.

Here the first satellite photos of this place before and after attack

Almost simultainously with this attack a transformator blew up in Dzhankoy town. Maybe diversion too, maybe accident.

2. Attack on Gvardeyskoye airfield 20 km NW from Simferopol (also you can meet the name Sarabuz - this is old Tatarian name of this settlement, when after deportation in 1944, all Tatarian names in Crimea were substituted on Russian names andSarabuz became Gvardeyskoye). 37th mixed avaition regiment of Black Sea Fleet deployed there with 12 Su-24M and 12 Su-25SM. Information is veru contraversal. Locals wrote they heard loud explosion at 6:35 and then several minor detonations. Some locals wrote the didn't hear anything. Some wrote airfield AD shot down kamikadze drone. Some wrote there were two drones - one was shot down, other hit target and  set on fire something (a jet, a truck, a roof in barrack - different versions). After explosion helicopters took off from airfield.

Here the single photo with smoke in direction of airfield. No fireballs and huge detonations. But looks like locals can't write what exactly happened.

I more and more think this is work of SOF teams with Phoenix Ghost loitering munitions and probably dierct diversions

Edited August 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

SOF teams with Phoenix Ghost loitering munitions

!

[FancyCat]

October 2021, the U.S knew that Russia was going to conduct a full scale invasion with multiple axis of attack with the intent to annex most or all of Ukraine. The U.S did not provide Ukraine with tactical information or much detailed information, largely after the invasion began, and only some information about a week before it started, due to worry about a leaky Ukrainian government. 

November 2021, French and German intelligence failed to predict the full scale invasion (do you suppose France or Germany will try and fix their failings?) Only the Baltics, and the UK were fully onboard with expecting the invasion. After Iraq and Afghanistan, not much faith in US intel. 

Only the Baltics and UK agreed with the assessment of full scale invasion, with France and Germany considering it diplomatic maneuvering, and other Central and EE states thinking limited invasion of Donbas. 

Diplomatic offers did include serious attempts at allaying Russian security fears, not withdrawal to 1997 NATO borders, but things like informing Moscow of NATO weapon and troop deployments in EE, and other mutual de-escalation methods. These were rejected out of hand. 

January 2022, the U.S warned Ukraine of risks to Zelensky, and provided the intel for the lightning attack on Kiev. The U.S saw that Russia was not preparing troops for war, neither planning nor psychologically ensuring they would be ready for war.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/ukraine-road-to-war/

Edited August 16, 2022 by FancyCat

[Cederic]

3 hours ago, DesertFox said:

S-400 for the win...

 

 

That's just sensible. Decoys fool recce, force wasted resources targeting it, cheaply deter attacks, fool the enemy into bad decisions.

The UK Rapier system had inflatable installations too.

 

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

!

As I wrote there no official info about this drones, only that they can fly 6 hours. So, if this is some sort of Harop-style drone with about 200 km range, our SOF operators can launch them out of Crimea, using either US intelligence info or info from local agents (or both)

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Apparent confirmation of a strike on DNR 1st Army Corps command on Aug 12. "Colonel" Dmitry "Korean" Tschke, Chief of Air Defense, 1st AK:

Also, Dmitry "Cloud" Oblachkov, unknown rank and position in DNR 1st AK command staff (pre-2014 photo from his time in Ukrainian prison service):

 

Maj. Igor Voloshkin, deputy commander of an air-assault battalion, unknown unit:

Lt. Col. Ruslan Mukhametkhanov, unknown tank unit:

Maj. Ruslan Kononovich, unknown VDV unit:

 

Edited August 16, 2022 by akd

[Calamine Waffles]

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Of course civilian Russians can. But the armed forces are completely different world in many ways, I would say.

Exactly this.  Russian businesses are just like any other businesses... they have to conform to their customers' requirements or they don't make money (or as much money).  Since their trading partners in the West require a long list of things on the logistics side, the businesses have learned how to comply or found themselves shut out of lucrative markets.  Since their goal is to make money, and trading is the way to do it, it makes sense that they invested in logistics.

The military, on the other hand, has a totally different incentive.  Specifically, to look tough and to please their bosses.  Officially, that is.  Unofficially a major incentive is to rob resources from the military for personal profit.  At a minimum this left the Russian military with no reason to adapt their logistics, more than likely it deterred them from modernizing because it would come at the expense of corrupt activities.

I can't speak for other Western nations, but I know that the United States logistics systems underwent a huge series of upgrades (reforms) over the past 20 years or so.  The shorthand description is they wanted to run the military's logistics as well as Walmart runs its logistics.  It helped that they started off with a very good logistics system, so it was mostly about introducing "just in time" inventory management.  I have no idea how close they got to their goals, but they for sure modernized in a big way.

2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

And of course they would have to start confiscating forklifts and trucks from companies, and I'm not sure that would go much better than mobilization.

Yeah, way to late for Russia to do anything about it now.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Some others UKR SOF and HIMARS strikes:

1. Aug 15. Belgorod oblast, Russia. Kamikadze drone struck TV-transmitter tower near the border. The camera and maybe SIGINT equipment were set on the top, so Russians could track for UKR positions. The tower fell.

2. Governor of Russian Kursk oblast made a statement that railway section was damaged and two power transmission towers were knocked down as a result of diversions

3. Likely HIMARS hit today the former building of SBU in occupied Lysychansk. The building is destroyed completely. Number of losses unknown

 

 

[The_Capt]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Some others UKR SOF and HIMARS strikes:

1. Aug 15. Belgorod oblast, Russia. Kamikadze drone struck TV-transmitter tower near the border. The camera and maybe SIGINT equipment were set on the top, so Russians could track for UKR positions. The tower fell.

2. Governor of Russian Kursk oblast made a statement that railway section was damaged and two power transmission towers were knocked down as a result of diversions

3. Likely HIMARS hit today the former building of SBU in occupied Lysychansk. The building is destroyed completely. Number of losses unknown

 

 

This whole thing is getting an “escalating towards something” vibe.  Russia security has to be losing its mind right now.

[Battlefront.com]

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that the radio tower was also beaming Russian propaganda into Ukraine, so that would be good enough reason to take it out of operation.  If it had military applications as well, that's twice as much reason to knock it out.

I agree with The_Capt.  We've all been wondering why there's been relatively few high profile partisan attacks in the past few months.  With all the motivation, weapons, and trained personnel you'd think things would have been going boom the whole way along.  This is not to minimize the brave acts against Russian forces we do know about, and those we don't know of.  I'm simply saying that the tempo and scope of these attacks is decidedly bigger than anything we've seen before.

These events certainly feel like a campaign similar to what the Soviets did to coincide with Bagration and the French did to coincide with Overlord.  I think what we've seen in the previous months was Ukraine figuring out what it should attack (sometimes specifically, but at least generally) and how to do it.  HIMARS, suicide drones, wiring explosives to bridges, etc... the past successes and failures has obviously allowed Ukraine to move forward with confidence of the outcome.

Steve

[Calamine Waffles]

I don't understand this at all. It seems impossibly cheap unless they are buying only small numbers of each. The Su-34 has a flyaway cost of about $50 million, so 20 of those would already cost $1 billion.

[dan/california]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wq1tjy/multiple_russian_soldiers_are_hit_by_a_drone/

Nonexistent unit cohesion, none. Zero attempt to help casualties. 

[dan/california]

It is all vaporware anyway, production just stopped even for the stuff they were already making.

 

[Calamine Waffles]

Ukraine is known to have captured at least 282 tanks presently, so they've given Ukraine more tanks in 6 months than they've exported in the last 5 years.

[sburke]

15 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Ukraine is known to have captured at least 282 tanks presently, so they've given Ukraine more tanks in 6 months than they've exported in the last 5 years.

Do they count as "exported" when captured?    

[Battlefront.com]

50 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Ukraine is known to have captured at least 282 tanks presently, so they've given Ukraine more tanks in 6 months than they've exported in the last 5 years.

Heh.  Compared to US tank exports, this is a joke.  The US has signed a deal with Poland this year for about half that.  One customer, one year.

Speaking of which... Poland is gearing up for their Abrams:

https://www.army.mil/article/259233/abrams_tank_training_academy_opens_in_poland

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another place to pop with a HIMARS:

 

 

[Offshoot]

An interview with Podolyak, adviser to Zelenskiy: "Ukraine aiming to create chaos within Russian forces, Zelenskiy adviser says" (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/16/creating-chaos-zelenskiys-adviser-outlines-ukraines-military-strategy)

"The adviser, often described as the country’s third most powerful figure, said Kyiv’s approach ran counter to Moscow’s use of blunt artillery power to gain territory in the Donbas region to the east, which has seen Russian troops destroy cities such as Mariupol and Sievierodonetsk in order to gain territory.

“So Russia has kind of taught everybody that a counteroffensive requires huge amounts of manpower like a giant fist and just go in one direction,” he said, but “a Ukrainian counteroffensive looks very different. We don’t use the tactics of the 60s and 70s, of the last century.”

Edited August 16, 2022 by Offshoot

[dan/california]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Heh.  Compared to US tank exports, this is a joke.  The US has signed a deal with Poland this year for about half that.  One customer, one year.

Speaking of which... Poland is gearing up for their Abrams:

https://www.army.mil/article/259233/abrams_tank_training_academy_opens_in_poland

Steve

Poland is gearing up to have the second or third strongest land army in the world. Triply so when you consider it will all be new top grade stuff that can hit what it aims at. Although I rather expect half of the first few graduating classes from that shiny new school to be from just a bit further east.