How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Map time:

• RU Nats almost lost all interest in the current offensive
• RU significantly decreased pressure on UKR strongpoints.
• Looks like RU is probing UKR lines for weak spots
• Looks like RU have significant difficulties in developing offensive from north in Ykovlivka area. UKR see these attempts as recon pushes.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So this is a strategic strike - it could be argued that the target was operational but the effect is definitely going to exceed the operational level, much like the sinking of the Moskva  The level of ISR required to set this up is not small and I suspect the Russians did not even think that the UA had the capability to hit at that range.

Is there something above strategic?  No?  Well, if there was than I think this would qualify.

This tells Russia so many things it doesn't want to hear.  First, nothing within several hundred KMs of Ukrainian soil can be hit without warning if Ukraine wants to make it happen.  Second, it doesn't appear that Russian air defenses can stop whatever it is that hit them.  Third, Russia has no way equivalent capability to inflict military damage on Ukraine.  Four, Russia has not only lost the initiative in both the air, sea, and ground wars, it has now lost the initiative at a strategic level.

So let's tabulate what's going on here in total at the strategic level.  This is what Russia has lost control of so far:

• Political/Diplomatic - world is largely arrayed against Russia despite all of its manuevering
• Economic - sanctions are killing Russia's economy and the West is not suffering because of it (pain ≠ suffering)
• Information - Russia can pay trolls and leverage useful idiots, but by and large Ukraine owns the messaging
• Social - Russian culture and national identity are no synonymous with barbarity, cruelty, stupidity, and all sorts of negative things
• Cyber - so far Ukraine has landed more punches than Russia.  Seems Russia gave up trying.
• Air - never even got it off the ground (heh... see what I did there?)
• Naval - it wasn't strong to start with, but with Muskova sunk so too was their naval capabilities
• Ground - hundreds of KMs of frontage and it can only make a couple KMs of progress along a 30km (ish) front per day
• "Missile" (or whatever you call the ability to hit targets without use of traditional air, sea, or ground warfare elements) - all Russia can do is long range terrorism, Ukraine can devastate specific targets of its choosing

Wow, that's a long list.

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Let's all try and remember this the next time the Russians manage to take 100m of dirt in the Donbas.

Heh.  Hopefully the journalists and excitable Twitter types read your comment.

Steve

[Grigb]

5 hours ago, Holien said:

@Grigb you are going to be busy...

Thanks for your continued information and translation superb job and hugely appreciated by me and no doubt everyone else. 

Thank you. Just doing what I can. Would like to do more but I do not have the required contacts.

[The_Capt]

Just now, Huba said:

The aim is strategic. It isn't only about destroying the base, it is about asserting the ownership of Crimea and showing that it can and will be struck when UA decides so. I won't be treated like Russia proper.

Exactly.  You have heard me go on about “decision” (to the point I am sure some are sick of hearing about it), well this is a strategic negative decision.  This one strike, well coordinated and executed, just undecided the security of the entire Crimea, and anything else in that range.  

Depending on how one defines the military strategic level - normally as the bridge between the political and military operations, this strike will definitely reshape things for the Russians militarily and likely politically.  It will have political implications for Ukraine as well, they just demonstrated that they remain the horse to bet on and are likely to win this thing…and we in the west really would like to back a winner (for once).

Or if one subscribes to the “alignment of Ends, Ways and Means” this works too.  Like the Moskva, this action may very well shift the narrative.  Before Moskva - “Russia controls Black Sea, amphibious assault on Odessa imminent!”  After - “Someone dropped a cigarette?!  Bahahah.”

We will see how it translates, always need translation which is never guaranteed; however, blowing up a major airfield in front of tourists and having that piped around the globe, memes already, is a damned good start. 

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

How do you mean strategic? Do you think it is aimed at removing the capability provided by those planes (standoff and controlling Black Sea?) or do I misunderstand that?

One I dunno if strategic but definitely long-term level I think this is Ukraine showing "see, it's not like ATACMS would be an escalation, we can already do some of this, now gimme".

Strategic in the sense that this is a serious capability that Russia can not counter.  It has just enlarged the battlefield to include large swaths of territory that Russia didn't think it would need to defend any time soon.  Now it has to grapple with this new threat and it is unlikely to be able to do so.

It is also strategic in the sense that Ukraine has now demonstrated that it can take out the Krech bridge probably any time it wants to.  That upends Russia's entire plan for the war, but more specifically its ability to keep the war west of Donetsk going long term.  This further emphasizes that the efforts to fake annexing Kherson won't work.

Strategic

Steve

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, Huba said:

So are we betting if ground attack version of Neptune is being produced in Ukraine itself, or if production line (or what remained of it) was set up in some NATO country?

There is no separate ground version of Neptun. This is multirole missile, which at least can strike big coastal objects (even close Russian Kh-35U has this opportunity). Missiles for RK-360 Neptun complex, which were used for the strike at Moskva cruiser were assembled in some hangars probably in Odesa oblast - just parts and components were evacuated from Artem factory in Kyiv and from other factories. There was a small reportage about this evacuation. 

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Is there something above strategic?  No?  Well, if there was than I think this would qualify.

This tells Russia so many things it doesn't want to hear.  First, nothing within several hundred KMs of Ukrainian soil can be hit without warning if Ukraine wants to make it happen.  Second, it doesn't appear that Russian air defenses can stop whatever it is that hit them.  Third, Russia has no way equivalent capability to inflict military damage on Ukraine.  Four, Russia has not only lost the initiative in both the air, sea, and ground wars, it has now lost the initiative at a strategic level.

So let's tabulate what's going on here in total at the strategic level.  This is what Russia has lost control of so far:

• Political/Diplomatic - world is largely arrayed against Russia despite all of its manuevering
• Economic - sanctions are killing Russia's economy and the West is not suffering because of it (pain ≠ suffering)
• Information - Russia can pay trolls and leverage useful idiots, but by and large Ukraine owns the messaging
• Social - Russian culture and national identity are no synonymous with barbarity, cruelty, stupidity, and all sorts of negative things
• Cyber - so far Ukraine has landed more punches than Russia.  Seems Russia gave up trying.
• Air - never even got it off the ground (heh... see what I did there?)
• Naval - it wasn't strong to start with, but with Muskova sunk so too was their naval capabilities
• Ground - hundreds of KMs of frontage and it can only make a couple KMs of progress along a 30km (ish) front per day
• "Missile" (or whatever you call the ability to hit targets without use of traditional air, sea, or ground warfare elements) - all Russia can do is long range terrorism, Ukraine can devastate specific targets of its choosing

Wow, that's a long list.

Heh.  Hopefully the journalists and excitable Twitter types read your comment.

Steve

Political, depending who one reads, and it does a pretty damned good job there as well.  You list all the National Power dimensions, and Joint military domains and Russia is losing on each one as you point out.

It underlines something we have said here for some time: Russia is figuring out how to lose this war, while Ukraine is figuring out how to win it.  I have seen nothing to tell me that has changed.  This attack shrinks Russian strategic options even further, while Ukraines expand.

[Haiduk]

Meanwhile heavy fights contiue for Soledar town near Bakhmut. Probably missile or airstrike on salt mine #7

General Staff reported "Russians have partial success near Vershyna village" (should to read "Vershyna is lost")

[Battlefront.com]

We cross posted, so here's some thoughts to add to your thoughts...

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Depending on how one defines the military strategic level - normally as the bridge between the political and military operations, this strike will definitely reshape things for the Russians militarily and likely politically.  

To put this into a civilian context that I think everybody can understand...

Let's say a company has been working on a new DVD player for years.  It is released, it has some problems, and people generally don't like it.  There's room for the company to maneuver in, such as improving the design, reducing the price, spending more on marketing, etc.

A second company releases their own DVD player that directly competes with the existing one.  It is better in all respects.  The result is the first company now has to take the second company's product into consideration in every decision it makes from then on.  Whatever options the first company had right after the release of its DVD player are now reduced, more difficult, more expensive, and less likely to succeed because of the actions of the second company.

Strategic.

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

It will have political implications for Ukraine as well, they just demonstrated that they remain the horse to bet on and are likely to win this thing…and we in the west really would like to back a winner (for once).

Yes!  I'm always focused on how this affects Russia since they are the ones who need to be broken, but for sure this has just boosted value of Ukraine's "stock".  Big time.

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Strategic in the sense that this is a serious capability that Russia can not counter.  It has just enlarged the battlefield to include large swaths of territory that Russia didn't think it would need to defend any time soon.  Now it has to grapple with this new threat and it is unlikely to be able to do so.

It is also strategic in the sense that Ukraine has now demonstrated that it can take out the Krech bridge probably any time it wants to.  That upends Russia's entire plan for the war, but more specifically its ability to keep the war west of Donetsk going long term.  This further emphasizes that the efforts to fake annexing Kherson won't work.

Strategic

Steve

That makes sense, but it also depends if (and how easily) can Ukraine repeat it. Once is not a capability.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Letter from Prague said:

That makes sense, but it also depends if (and how easily) can Ukraine repeat it. Once is not a capability.

Doesn't matter   Russia has to act upon the threat as if it can be repeated at any time.

Think about 9/11 in the United States.  Has any terrorist organization mounted such an attack in the 20+ years since?  No.  But does the US still expend massive amounts of energy and capital to thwart the possibility of another one?  Yes.  So repetition is not necessary to have a strategic long term effect.

Steve

[Haiduk]

The work of UKR Stugna-P squad. Several hits and shoot&scoot 

 

[Huba]

21 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

There is no separate ground version of Neptun. This is multirole missile, which at least can strike big coastal objects (even close Russian Kh-35U has this opportunity). Missiles for RK-360 Neptun complex, which were used for the strike at Moskva cruiser were assembled in some hangars probably in Odesa oblast - just parts and components were evacuated from Artem factory in Kyiv and from other factories. There was a small reportage about this evacuation. 

Assuming the sabre rattling about it being just a warmup is true, that would meand that production lines are set up again, including production of components. That would be great and a bit surprising news, even more so if UA really managed to accomplish that with it's own strength. I mentioned the "ground attack variant" cause if the missiles were to be build with this purpose only, there's no point fitting them with radar - making the missile cheaper and easier to produce. Of course it's just a speculation.

And we have another strike outside GMLRS range, third today. Around 140km from the frontline:

https://www.openstreetmap.org/search?query=kyrylivka#map=13/46.3746/35.3851

 

Edited August 9, 2022 by Huba

[Beleg85]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Doesn't matter   Russia has to act upon the threat as if it can be repeated at any time.

Think about 9/11 in the United States.  Has any terrorist organization mounted such an attack in the 20+ years since?  No.  But does the US still expend massive amounts of energy and capital to thwart the possibility of another one?  Yes.  So repetition is not necessary to have a strategic long term effect.

Steve

Here we need to wait before drawing conclusions. Whole Russian system of power and its reactions to unexpected events  is very strange, full of quirkly behaviours, erratic decisions or rationalized denials. To us outsiders it often seems selective, and the way it make military-political responses on strategic levels is frankly not always clear. We speak very different languages.

Putin may as well pretend nothing special happened, threw some Kalibrs extra (as a direct punishment), harness his propaganda machine and for some time do the same stuff he planned before. It is if Ukrainians will repeat this spectacular success, strategic balance will have to change. We need to wait and see.

I would expect now they need at least withdraw part of AA cover from frontline and will be forced to spread it in NW Crimea for sure.

 

And of course congratulations for our Ukrainian members, this is good day for them (if such happens during wartime).

About Steven Seagal- well, always was of opinion that from Great Ones of B-category movies of 80'-2000, van Damme was more talented. At least he could trully kick somebody.

Edited August 9, 2022 by Beleg85

[Grigb]

RU reaction is as follows:

1. Kremlin ordered RU propaganda to work on two versions
2. The first version is official for the general public - it was just an accident, no losses.
3. The second version is unofficial for RU Nats specifically - it was sabotage group. The Kursk guys with mortar are now running around Crimea with a lot of explosives. 
4. So currently there is infighting between RU Nats and RU propagandists
5. Overall RU Nats are in stupor now, trying to process it. Hardcore ones are in complete denial - it changes nothing. War is war. There are losses.

And now for something completely different

Edited August 9, 2022 by Grigb

[Calamine Waffles]

Personally, I think it is unlikely Neptun was used for these strikes: they are too valuable as a deterrent against the Black Sea Fleet and they do not have TERCOM for land-attack (similarly, Harpoon only has very limited land attack capability)

If it was a Ukrainian missile system, I'd probably conjecture it was Sapsan, which was reported to be 80% complete in February 2021:

https://defence--ua-com.translate.goog/weapon_and_tech/otrk_sapsan_dlja_zsu_u_minoboroni_rozkrili_shljah_priskorennja_prijnjattja_na_ozbrojennja-2847.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

Quote

In 2021, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine planned to conclude a contract for the production of the first experimental battery of the operational-tactical complex "Sapsan", which is being developed at the "Pivdne" Design Bureau.

Such information was reported by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Andriy Taran, who noted that "the degree of readiness of the entire project has already exceeded 80%, we must take the last step and complete this work." Adding that the development of this OTRK has the highest priority.

 

[Mattias]

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Damn, now I have to go and burn all my Pink Floyd albums...

I never thought I would think of Roger Waters as a "useful idiot".

Steve

To see Anzio and Sothampton dock with such heart rending clarity, yet fail so miserably when children and partners now, again, face the same bottomless agony. 

 

Sic transit gloria mundi…

 

 

[Beleg85]

Speaking about:

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Personally, I think it is unlikely Neptun was used for these strikes: they are too valuable as a deterrent against the Black Sea Fleet and they do not have TERCOM for land-attack (similarly, Harpoon only has very limited land attack capability)

If it was a Ukrainian missile system, I'd probably conjecture it was Sapsan, which was reported to be 80% complete in February 2021:

https://defence--ua-com.translate.goog/weapon_and_tech/otrk_sapsan_dlja_zsu_u_minoboroni_rozkrili_shljah_priskorennja_prijnjattja_na_ozbrojennja-2847.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

 

 

I'm still thinking it wasn't Neptune for those reasons.  It seems the warheads were also much bigger.  However, it seems to fit the information we currently have, so for now I'll go with Neptune rather than some other known system or the possibility of an unknown V weapon.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

21 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Here we need to wait before drawing conclusions. Whole Russian system of power and its reactions to unexpected events  is very strange, full of quirkly behaviours, erratic decisions or rationalized denials. To us outsiders it often seems selective, and the way it make military-political responses on strategic levels is frankly not always clear. We speak very different languages.

Putin may as well pretend nothing special happened, threw some Kalibrs extra (as a direct punishment), harness his propaganda machine and for some time do the same stuff he planned before. It is if Ukrainians will repeat this spectacular success, strategic balance will have to change. We need to wait and see.

I would expect now they need at least withdraw part of AA cover from frontline and will be forced to spread it in NW Crimea for sure.

None of this changes the strategic impact of this single attack.  Making a decision to pretend nothing happened and hope for the best is still a strategic decision.  Because if Ukraine has more of these to use, then Russia is doing nothing to cope with them.  If Ukraine never launches an attack again, the RU Nats will likely not return to the same tunes they were singing yesterday.  And what they say carries weight.  In fact, Grigb just posted something that suggests that ignoring the strike is already having some detrimental effect on the hardcore nationalists.

Steve

[Haiduk]

21 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

and they do not have TERCOM for land-attack

It has ) 

 

Sapsan is closed missile project in times of Yanukovich. Hrim-2 is successor of Sapsan project, but our MoD, especially Taran, which failed State Defence Order program never though to order it. Hrim-2 even wasn't under state tests to be adopted. All works of developing and manufacturing has been conducting for the money of KSA. Hrim-2 with 300 km range - this was program for this country. There was a rumors that Pivdenne DB also develops 500+ km range for Ukrainian MoD, but there is no any information about REAL interest of our MoD to this missile until Reznikov and Zaluzhnyi came on own duties. So, 99,9 % that Taran told about 80%-ready project for Saudi Arabia, not Ukriane. 

Edited August 9, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

Emerging picture of potential blastwave. The last tweet, I have no idea if that is truly where the fuel/ammo depot is, but if true, that would have wrecked a lot of planes. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Calamine Waffles]

6 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It has ) 

AFAIK it only has INS with terminal radar homing, but if it has TERCOM like Tomahawk that would be surprising to me.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Map time:

• RU Nats almost lost all interest in the current offensive
• RU significantly decreased pressure on UKR strongpoints.
• Looks like RU is probing UKR lines for weak spots
• Looks like RU have significant difficulties in developing offensive from north in Ykovlivka area. UKR see these attempts as recon pushes.

No wonder the RU Nats have lost interest in the offensive.  It's showing no signs of achieving much of anything militarily or politically meaningful.  It also seems that the fighting is becoming less intensive and widespread over time.  Definitely the manpower shortage is at play here, both because the already committed forces are spent and also because whatever possible reinforcements Russia might have seem to be going to the south.  Or to foolish fantasy as with Vostok's apparent new mission.

Add to this the seeming inevitability of a decisive fight for Kherson and now deep strikes in Crimea... yeah, the Donetsk front is not seeming to be all that interesting from the Russian perspective.

From Ukraine's perspective it is interesting only in that it seems poised to deny Russia it's primary military objective -> Donetsk Oblast.  At the same time Ukraine is also able to push back north and south.

Steve

[asurob]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Strategic in the sense that this is a serious capability that Russia can not counter.  It has just enlarged the battlefield to include large swaths of territory that Russia didn't think it would need to defend any time soon.  Now it has to grapple with this new threat and it is unlikely to be able to do so.

It is also strategic in the sense that Ukraine has now demonstrated that it can take out the Krech bridge probably any time it wants to.  That upends Russia's entire plan for the war, but more specifically its ability to keep the war west of Donetsk going long term.  This further emphasizes that the efforts to fake annexing Kherson won't work.

Strategic

Steve

So, Russia is learning that when you have to defend everything, really, you are defending nothing.