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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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16 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Boxes of potassium nitrate

Not at first time. In Shakhtarsk and some town in Luhansk oblast also was "potassum nitrate" 😀 Looks like this new word in Russian neo-language, when no "exlosion", but "clap". So, not "ammunition" but "potassum nitrate" (well it's anyway in composition of powder or HE) :) 

A notice for translations - if you see in UKR twitter posts about next ammo dump explosion the word  "бавовна" (bavovna) which google-translator translated like "cotton" you should know this is mockery on this Russian neo-language by play of words and emphasis - russian "хлопок" (clap) and "хлопок" (cotton), so in UKR mockery mean "cotton" is "explosion of ammo" )

Edited by Haiduk
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11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I presume that Girkin, like me, thinks that full mobilization could change the equation if there isn't a revolution in response.

About RU Nats obsession with mobilization - watching them discussing it i am coming to conclusion that it is just wishful thinking. They basically believe that when Martial law is declared they will be able quickly overcome corruption and reform the state with mass purges + using executions to motivate people to fight.

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8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Not at first time. In Shakhtarsk and some town in Luhansk also was "potassum nitrate" 😀

Yep, sorry, just figured out it was TASS. What an embarassment.😎 But explosion was indeed spectacular.

Today's attacks may change something and force some decisions on Kremlin, it seems to be too much of a failure to simply leave it like that and pretend. Especially that Ukrainians start to zeroing their HIMARS's on HQ's now  as well.

Edited by Beleg85
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UKR representative claimed UKR forces has about 7000 of missed, most of them are allegedly POWs. From this number 2700 are from Armed Forces, rest - National Guard, State Border Guard, police etc. Russian side very slowly gives confirmation about POWs names, so without this captured servicemen still considered as missed.

Edited by Haiduk
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Just now, Haiduk said:

A notice for translations - if you see in UKR twitter posts about next ammo dump explosion the word  "бавовна" (bavovna) which google-translator translated like "cotton" you should know this is mockery on this Russian neo-language by play of words and emphasis - russian "хлопок" (clap) and "хлопок" (cotton), so in UKR mockery mean "cotton" is "explosion of ammo" )

Thanks, I was wondering what's that about, I thought it was about nitrocellulose - in polish its "bawełna strzelnicza" or "gun cotton".

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4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

No, I saw it😉 but because it didn't have that much useful info i decided not to translate. As I said I treat information overload very seriously. 

Don't worry, we will manage. In fact other users were right, you should ask this Dymitri to cooperate. Especially social and political context you provide is invaluable.

https://twitter.com/wolski_jaros/status/1546571699939852289

Theoretical enumeration what is being hit by UAF last days by one Polis military analysts, to sum up (in PL, you can autotr.)

-UA mostly hits brigade level ammo dumps.

-Judging by number of brigades: In the area of Białogród - Torez, there are about 53 such dumps. 35-40 between Kherson-Donetsk. So theoretical is 85-90 along entire frontline.

-More or less half get HIMARS'ed already.

-If UA gets ATACMS, they can start wreck front/army level ammo dumps.

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13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

A notice for translations - if you see in UKR twitter posts about next ammo dump explosion the word  "бавовна" (bavovna) which google-translator translated like "cotton" you should know this is mockery on this Russian neo-language by play of words and emphasis - russian "хлопок" (clap) and "хлопок" (cotton), so in UKR mockery mean "cotton" is "explosion of ammo" )

A few years ago (may be quit few but I do not remember) the RU government made a secret directive to all news channels. In case of any explosion, news channels must not say "explosion" but use "clap" instead. So, it was like "Locals heard a clap of unknown origin".

RU government had to do it to suppress news about aging infrastructure (like gas explosions) and terror attacks.

 

13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Today's attacks may change something and force some decisions on Kremlin, it seems to be too much of a failure to simply leave it like that and pretend. Especially that Ukrainians start to zeroing their HIMARS's on HQ's now  as well.

HIMARS strikes are serious political pain for RU. RU military power myth is based on RU Air Defence weapons myth. RU is the second military power after US, but RU does not need to be afraid of US because of wonder AD will protect RU from powerful US AF.

However, it looks like wonder AD cannot protect itself from HIMARS. That is really bad news for RU because there seems to be no protection against US! That is politically unacceptable. Let's see what they will come up with in response to HIMARS.

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58 minutes ago, Huba said:

To put it into perspective, today is a remembrance day of Volhynia Massacre, which stains PL - UA relations to this day and is routinely used by RU propaganda to sow hatred. This year, for the first time UA ambassador laid flowers at the monument of the victims, which is a very important gesture. And Duda's visit in Kyiv today is no accident of course. I didn't follow it closely, but in my opinion it fell a bit short - I'd love to hear "we forgive, and ask for forgiveness", from both sides ( Poles paid Ukrainians back in kind during "Akcja Wisła"). Anyway, it is important that we're trying to leave it behind, it might take some more time though.

I still think the easiest way to solve a great many problems is a Polish Ukrainian Confederation. Warsaw just sends Brussels a note that we are bigger now, and Moscow a little missive that says Article Five applies, try us. Us and our three brand new Abrams equipped brigades. They would like to show you how the Iraqi Republican Guard felt.

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Explosion was geolocated (more or less). Reportedly blast shattered windows several kilometers from the epicenter. Unfortunately, civilian casualties might be substantial.

And some interesting gossip from RU side. If true, Ru forces east of Inhulets are in big trouble:

 

Edited by Huba
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7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Explosion was geolocated (more or less). Reportedly blast shattered windows several kilometers from the epicenter.

Siding torn off a big box store 3km from explosion:

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Unfortunately, civilian casualties might be substantial.

Yes, hopefully western media can maintain perspective.  HIMARS probably didn’t kill anyone directly.  1000+ tons of Russian munitions stored in a city did.

Edited by akd
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Just now, akd said:

Yes, hopefully western media can maintain perspective.  HIMARS probably didn’t kill anyone directly.  1000+ tons of Russian munitions stored in a city did.

M******ucking orcs. UA authorities called citizens to evacuate, hopefully after previous strikes nearby locals got the memo and left...

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Given the  place of the blast just next to dam, it is entirely possible that this strike is connected to expected Ukrainian offensive. We will see within several days. ZOKA channel (pro-Russian but with sources on the ground) claims thew dam was also hit. We will see...perhaps Ukrainians themselves did not expect such huge explosion.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqkycdT1U9s

Also a video from liberation of destroyed village of Pavlivka. Interesting is new 68th Jager brigade. Some new type of brigade in UA army? Perhaps amalgamation of lighter units and concious push into "elite light infantry" direction underlined by Capt.

Edited by Beleg85
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25 minutes ago, Huba said:

And some interesting gossip from RU side. If true, Ru forces east of Inhulets are in big trouble:

This is probably just part of their scattershot media cope.  They’ve already claimed Ukraine attacked saltpeter warehouse, humanitarian aid and the dam / hydroplant. Anything but munitions.

Edited by akd
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1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

Given the  place of the blast just next to dam, it is entirely possible that this strike is connected to expected Ukrainian offensive. We will see within several days. ZOKA channel (pro-Russian but with sources on the ground) claims thew dam was also hit. We will see...perhaps Ukrainians themselves did not expect such huge explosion.

 

That makes sense. Given the size of explosion, the crossing might be ruined. I posted the photos of it some pages ago - there's separate road bridge along the dam (on the side of explosion) and rail line on top on a relatively fragile superstructure. I'll be really looking to the next batch of satellite photos.

Here's another geolocation:

 

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7 minutes ago, Huba said:

That makes sense. Given the size of explosion, the crossing might be ruined. I posted the photos of it some pages ago - there's separate road bridge along the dam (on the side of explosion) and rail line on top on a relatively fragile superstructure. I'll be really looking to the next batch of satellite photos.

Here's another geolocation:

 

Seems to show limitations of FIRMS precision (or maybe it is thrown off by towering, hot smoke columns?).  Locals seem to be reporting it as the warehouse area / large truck park to the WSW of this geolocation.

Edited by akd
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33 minutes ago, akd said:

Seems to show limitations of FIRMS precision (or maybe it is thrown off by towering, hot smoke columns?).  Locals seem to be reporting it as the warehouse area / large truck park to the WSW of this geolocation.

Twitter seems to agree on the geolocation. The nearest apartment buildings are around 500m away from the epicenter, a number of single family houses a bit closer...

Around 1400m to the closest part of the dam, so unless UA fired at it intentionally, there shouldn't be any substantial damage to the crossing.

 

Edited by Huba
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freakin funny

Last month, activists replaced the street sign outside of the embassy with one saying "Zelensky Way." In 2018, D.C.'s city council voted to rename a section of the street officially. Instead of Wisconsin Avenue, it became Boris Nemtsov Place. Nemtsov was a critic of Putin's who was murdered three years before.

On Wednesday night, activists projected the Ukrainian flag onto the Russian Embassy building. The embassy has been cloaked in the Russian flag's white, red and blue stripes. Then the small Ukrainian flag appeared. The staff apparently rushed to try and wash out the projection with a white spotlight, and that's when things got funny.

The video shows the pro-Ukraine projection moving around the building as the Russian spotlight appears to chase it. It ended up looking like a cat-and-mouse game emblematic of Russia's struggle to bring down Ukraine.

 

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1 hour ago, akd said:

Siding torn off a big box store 3km from explosion:

Yes, hopefully western media can maintain perspective.  HIMARS probably didn’t kill anyone directly.  1000+ tons of Russian munitions stored in a city did.

Ho man, that is the God of War’s red right hand.  Not sure about the CDA but given the amount of civilian damage in Ukraine right now I am betting they have widened the meaning of “acceptable” somewhat.

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22 minutes ago, sburke said:

freakin funny

Last month, activists replaced the street sign outside of the embassy with one saying "Zelensky Way." In 2018, D.C.'s city council voted to rename a section of the street officially. Instead of Wisconsin Avenue, it became Boris Nemtsov Place. Nemtsov was a critic of Putin's who was murdered three years before.

On Wednesday night, activists projected the Ukrainian flag onto the Russian Embassy building. The embassy has been cloaked in the Russian flag's white, red and blue stripes. Then the small Ukrainian flag appeared. The staff apparently rushed to try and wash out the projection with a white spotlight, and that's when things got funny.

The video shows the pro-Ukraine projection moving around the building as the Russian spotlight appears to chase it. It ended up looking like a cat-and-mouse game emblematic of Russia's struggle to bring down Ukraine.

 

My kid and I went to the one at the Russian ambassador's residence on 16th and L. The little dude yelling "sovok svin'ya" at the embassy security goons with projectors got some funny looks.

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