How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And another Lithuanian related note.  4 on way to Ukraine right now, more on the way over next 2 months.  Do you think Lithuania needed to have NATO tell it to do this?  Nope.   If Russia had been a good neighbor to Lithuania instead of a major threat, do you think Lithuanians would be doing this?  Nope again.  See, NATO isn't the problem here

Design of small UAV's seem to really kick off during this war and will be major leveller of the battlefield in the future. Even small countries but with good startups and educated population (like Balts) will probbaly be able to field them in thousands. Nothing we didn't expect, but things will probably go very fast from that point.

[Battlefront.com]

Somebody did something to a Russian temporary base near Bryansk (at least that's the suspected location), no details:

 

[Battlefront.com]

Here's a much longer version of a video I'm pretty sure I posted a couple of days ago.  It is a video from much earlier (April?) which shows a coordinated use of a drone and ground forces to take out an outpost.  Look and see how much detail even a simple drone can provide the enemy force.  It's pretty scary.

The village might be in Sumy area, but I can't find it on a map.  However, the Russians look like DPR to me (red armbands and steel helmets).  This is supposedly from 93rd Brigade, which is over near Kharkiv these days, but I don't know where it was deployed back when there was still snow on the ground.

I lost track of Bustov's YouTube channel link and, for some reason, couldn't find it again.  Which forces me to post a Reddit link:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/vaybbr/destruction_and_capture_of_russian_mercenaries_in/

 

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Enemy destroyed the third bridge to Siverodonetsk, but as said the head of military administration Serhiy Haidai, the transport communication between Lysychansk and Siverodonetsl still exists

In last days we have several videos of different UKR artillery strikes on Russian ammunition storages and artillery positions. Maybe the number of 155 mm howitzers are gradually increasing and we now can reach with "longer hand" to this places, where enemy felt itself in safety. Ukr forces several times hit ammunition and logistic centers in Donetsk and also struck TV transmitter, so Russian channels disappeared and evem locally UKR TV-channels are available now.

Here is video, uploaded today, but related to 10th of June - reportedly UKR SOF, operating behind the enemy lines spotted enemy reduced Grad battery in 4 launchers near Boroven'ky village  9 km NE from Siverodonetsk. UKR artillery hit position, destroying 2 or 3 launchers

 

If that makes me feel this good here in the US, I am guessing that video makes our UKR friends really happy.  That's a bunch of ordnance & tubes that won't be killing the good guys.  I hope mix of interdiction & targeting/countering RU arty can make a significant difference to the soldiers trying to hold the lines.

[rocketman]

20 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Somebody did something to a Russian temporary base near Bryansk (at least that's the suspected location), no details:

 

Civilians just walk up to a military base with their phones at the ready. Not a guard in sight. Sabotage?

[dan/california]

https://www.armyrecognition.com/eurosatory_2022_news_official_online_daily/eurosatory_2022_rheinmetall_from_germany_launches_its_new_kf51_panther_mbt_main_battle_tank.html

Well, they have been reading the thread. The thing I like the least is the 130mm gun, I am not sure the increased hitting power is worth the reduced number of rounds. Most interesting is they claim the APS can degrade KE penetrators. Cost? if you have to ask.....

[Machor]

 I found something 

Objective:

So, I was playing around with Google Trends to see if I could find a meaningful comparative statistic for Google searches from Russia using "в Украине" ("in Ukraine") and "на Украине" ("in the Ukraine"), and that didn't bring anything up. Instead, I stumbled upon this.

Methodology:

I looked up Google Trends data from Russia for Google searches for the last three months using "в Украине" ("in Ukraine") and "на Украине" ("in the Ukraine").

Findings:

Here are the top five subregions of Russia searching for "в Украине" ("in Ukraine") on Google for the last three months:

1. Chukotka Autonomous Okrug
2. Belgorod Oblast
3. Buryatia
4. Bryansk Oblast
5. Jewish Autonomous Oblast [It is Russian populated; Jews are only 1% of the population today.]

Here are the top five subregions of Russia searching for "на Украине" ("in the Ukraine") on Google for the last three months:

1. Chukotka Autonomous Okrug
2. Kostroma Oblast
3. Buryatia
4. Kamchatka Krai
5. Belgorod Oblast

Moreover, Moscow and St. Petersburg ranked 56th and 55th among Russia's 83 subregions searching for "в Украине" ("in Ukraine") [Since this is the politically correct form, this would include searches by liberals and dissidents.], and they ranked 58th and 75th among the 83 subregions searching for "на Украине" ("in the Ukraine").

Discussion:

Since Belgorod and Bryansk border Ukraine, heightened interest in the war is to be expected. Otherwise, we see that those most actively searching for information on events in Ukraine since the start of the war are far-flung regions where a large percentage of the population are professional military [Kostroma isn't far-flung, but it's piss-poor, and home to a VDV regiment that got wiped out early in the war.], and also the ethnic minority Buryatia and Chukotka, where at least the former are known to have taken very heavy losses in Ukraine. That these regions are actively searching for information on Google can be seen as an indication that they do not trust and/or are not satisfied with the information from the Russian press, and search results from Yandex.

Conversely, Moscow and St. Petersburg seem to have relatively little interest in the war beyond the official channels, in spite of their large populations.

Conclusion:

The war is having an unequal impact on Russian society and Russia's diverse regions, and this is already manifesting itself objectively via online data.

@LongLeftFlank

[Machor]

Y'all are wrong, says the NYT: 

Control of Luhansk, and the wider Donbas region, could hinge on the battle for Sievierodonetsk.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-sievierodonetsk.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

"The battle for Sievierodonetsk, which could fall to the Russians within days, is about far more than one city. Its capture would give Russia a key victory in its drive to seize the entire Donbas region of eastern Ukraine."

"Capturing Sievierodonetsk and the neighboring city of Lysychansk would give Russia full control of Luhansk, and position its forces to advance farther west toward the city of Kramatorsk in neighboring Donetsk province, one of the last major cities still under Ukrainian control there. If Kramatorsk falls, Mr. Putin’s forces would in effect control the whole Donbas region."

It's shake'n'bake, folks. 

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Machor said:

Y'all are wrong, says the NYT: 

Control of Luhansk, and the wider Donbas region, could hinge on the battle for Sievierodonetsk.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-sievierodonetsk.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

"The battle for Sievierodonetsk, which could fall to the Russians within days, is about far more than one city. Its capture would give Russia a key victory in its drive to seize the entire Donbas region of eastern Ukraine."

"Capturing Sievierodonetsk and the neighboring city of Lysychansk would give Russia full control of Luhansk, and position its forces to advance farther west toward the city of Kramatorsk in neighboring Donetsk province, one of the last major cities still under Ukrainian control there. If Kramatorsk falls, Mr. Putin’s forces would in effect control the whole Donbas region."

It's shake'n'bake, folks. 

You meant wake'n'bake? Cause that's definitely what author of this NYT piece is doing

Also, kudos on the Google statistics analysis! It's great to see expertise based predictions confirmed by hard data. 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, Machor said:

Y'all are wrong, says the NYT: 

Control of Luhansk, and the wider Donbas region, could hinge on the battle for Sievierodonetsk.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/13/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-sievierodonetsk.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

"The battle for Sievierodonetsk, which could fall to the Russians within days, is about far more than one city. Its capture would give Russia a key victory in its drive to seize the entire Donbas region of eastern Ukraine."

"Capturing Sievierodonetsk and the neighboring city of Lysychansk would give Russia full control of Luhansk, and position its forces to advance farther west toward the city of Kramatorsk in neighboring Donetsk province, one of the last major cities still under Ukrainian control there. If Kramatorsk falls, Mr. Putin’s forces would in effect control the whole Donbas region."

It's shake'n'bake, folks. 

That is so ridiculous.  Basically the reporter involved is talking to people that really aren't living in reality, which means they are some pundit type I suppose.  I subscribe to NYT but there war coverage can sometimes really be infantile.  Yes, this could happen.  Except that Lyschansk and Kramatorsk are 100X harder to take than Severodonetsk unless the cities are cut off.  Of course, the only forces available to do the cutting off..... are getting severely depleted in Severodonetsk and will face worse as they try to advance out of Izyum & Popasne.  As if losing this city means some kind of amazing breakthrough.  REPORTER, LOOK AT  A MAP.  geeeeez

[Machor]

On 6/12/2022 at 7:50 PM, Calamine Waffles said:

It's not just in Donbas. It would be naive to think these people only operate there.

 

23 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, and in the first couple of days there were Ukrainians caught putting down IR markers to help guide Russian ops.  Quite a few of the ones I saw were way in the west (Lviv for example), so probably no practical use as the Russians didn't really do much there because they were so thoroughly defeated in the east.  But treason is still treason, even if it isn't effective.

My point was that this problem is probably significantly more common in Donbas than elsewhere, but since @Zeleban and @Haiduk have also chimed in on the topic of loyalty, here's the perspective of a Ukrainian soldier on the ground:

'I watched from afar Russia’s latest merciless assault on Severodonetsk'

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61634050

"In Lysychansk, I meet private first class, Vladimir, serving with a reconnaissance unit in the country's National Guard. Russian forces are adapting, he says, first they came in "bold and got hit hard", now the enemy flattens what it can't capture with infantry.

He tells me of his month in Rubizhne. "It wasn't Mariupol, but it was pretty close. It was very hard. There were a lot of losses - a lot of fighting across streets. There was also artillery, just removing those houses very fast. People were trying to hide in the basement so they had no view, no assessment of the current situation. So there were a lot of losses during that time.""

"Vladimir - the Ukrainian soldier - says the local population are "30% pro-Ukrainian, 30% pro-Russian and 40% don't care". Of course, many pro-Ukrainian residents have now fled."

Edited June 14, 2022 by Machor
Corrected mistake in the quoted text

[paxromana]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Crimea is more complicated because Russia moved in so many of its nationals, therefore a big chunk of the Crimean population is born and raised Russian citizens.  Crimea also has been directly administered by Russia for 8 years and has not been the subject of a grinding war like the Donbas has.  This raises different challenges as resentment of Ukrainian control is likely to be higher.  Still not armed resistance level, but still emotionally hostile or, at best, distant from a desire to be Ukrainian.

Surely *when* Ukraine retakes Crimea all those illegal immigrants and enemy aliens will simply (and quite legally) be expelled and forcibly returned to Russia ... and that would be, as I understand it, quite OK under International Law as long as not done brutally.

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Surely *when* Ukraine retakes Crimea all those illegal immigrants and enemy aliens will simply (and quite legally) be expelled and forcibly returned to Russia ... and that would be, as I understand it, quite OK under International Law as long as not done brutally.

Oh, absolutely for sure that will happen.  And it for sure should.  Especially since many of them are housed or working in illegally seized properties.

After the seizure of Crimea by Russian forces in 2014 they very, very, very quickly went about taking anything and everything that the criminals in Moscow and those chosen to administer Crimea wanted.  Then in 2020 Russia banned foreign ownership of Crimean businesses, which meant that anybody in Ukraine who still had a business there was basically out of luck.

So yeah, I also think that if Ukraine pushes forces into Crimea there's going to be a large number of vehicles on the Kerch Straights bridge headed back to Russia.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

Some good news.

 

 

[LongLeftFlank]

7 hours ago, The_Capt said:

There is no "easy out", or hedge fund strategy here...this is war.  You do not take the Last Argument of Kings option lightly and to steal from Stephen King, we will have forgotten the faces of our fathers if we fail on this one.

1. Well pretty much all hedge fund strategies eventually seem to boil down to 'find a greater fool.'  An easy (profitable) out for them, maybe, but someone still holds the bag at the end. Often taxpayers. Kind of subverting your point lol, but I have small love for financial engineers of all stripes.... 

2. Tooze actually ends his essay on a similar note: 

... it is a fatal trap to align different notions of individuality and freedom. It may well be true that success in intense modern combat requires not just courage but a certain sort of initiative, a certain kind of freedom.

But let us not confuse those expressions of agency, and initiative, with other broader notions of freedom that we employ in political or cultural thought. The battlefield is a zone of absolute and violent constraint. As Clausewitz says the enemy gives me the law. To prevail may require a sense of super human strength or extreme self-sacrifice. Furthermore it requires one to regard the enemy as a counterpart not to be reasoned or bargained with, but to be outwitted, crushed and if necessary incapacitated or killed. 

@Beleg85, I used 'Western Way of War' deliberately and you picked up on the Hanson reference nicely, full marks.

I found his thesis interesting, if underdocumented as you say (fine, him and Gladwell and a bunch of other popularisers too -- he doesn't write for academics or wonks). Sadly, I have found Hanson himself (like Paul Krugman on the other team) a disappointingly dull reciter of partisan talking points.

Edited June 14, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

49 minutes ago, Machor said:

Vladimir - the Ukrainian soldier - says the local population are "30% pro-Ukrainian, 30% pro-Russian and 40% don't care". Of course, many pro-Ukrainian residents have now fled."

An often cited guess at the American War of Independence is about 1/3 supported independence, 1/3 supported staying with Britain, and 1/3 didn't care one way or the other.  A large chunk of pretty much all populations is apathetic by choice as long as they think doing nothing is a viable option.  Unfortunately, lots of people trick themselves into thinking it is a viable option.  Or as the very famous poem about Nazi Germany goes...

First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist

Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist

Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist

Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew

Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me

That pretty much sums up the large mass of society that allows their political, religious, social, etc. systems to descend into oppression.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's June 13th report catalogs more examples of Russian desperation to field replacements:

Quote

Russia continues to deploy insufficiently prepared volunteer and reserve forces to reinforce its ongoing operations. Kremlin-sponsored outlet Izvestia released footage showing Russian artillery reservists undergoing training with old D-20 howitzers reportedly within 10 days of their deployment to Ukraine.  The reservists focused on learning how to operate hand-held weapons, despite being reportedly only days away from deploying. Social media footage also showed Russian forces transporting Russian volunteer and reserve units with T-80BV tanks (a variant produced in 1985, as opposed to the modernized T-80 BVM operated by the 1st Guards Tank Army) and BMP-1 armored personnel carriers (which have largely been phased out in favor of the BMP-2) to Belgorod Oblast on June 9. Additional social media footage showed Russian forces transporting T-80BV tanks removed from storage in Moscow Oblast on June 9.

And if this seems familiar to you, that's because I've said it a half dozen times in the last few days

Quote

krainian Defense Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk noted that Russian forces did not entirely clear Severodonetsk of Ukrainian resistance due to Russia’s reluctance to commit its (likely understrength) infantry units and overreliance on artillery and assault aviation for offensive operations.

The overall take of ISW is that Russia is still pushing back northeast of Khakiv, trying to expand Izyum to the southeast, trying to take Severodonetsk, pushing north towards Toshkivka, and attempting to take Bahkmut from the Popasna salient.  Russians seem to have made mild advances in all these areas, but nothing beyond incremental.

Ukraine's pressure in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts have netted maybe a little more territory, but it doesn't seem there were any serious pushes.  There are reports of a successful series of attacks against the western flank of the Izyum salient, with two towns possibly taken by Ukrainian forces.

My take on it is June 13th saw things end similar to how they were the day before and not too different than the day before that.

Steve

[danfrodo]

50 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Some good news.

 

 

Poland is arming!  This is a serious threat and provocation!  Putin must invade now before it's too late!  He is only doing this because he has no choice, since later he will be at the mercy of the culturally and ethnically aggressor-nation Poles! 

[Battlefront.com]

Short (translated) article about the International Legion and it's members from 55 different countries:

https://interfax-com-ua.translate.goog/news/general/838795.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Hey, speaking of foreigners fighting in Ukraine... anybody heard a peep about Syrians and Libyans lately?  I've not seen anything.

Steve

[danfrodo]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Short (translated) article about the International Legion and it's members from 55 different countries:

https://interfax-com-ua.translate.goog/news/general/838795.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Hey, speaking of foreigners fighting in Ukraine... anybody heard a peep about Syrians and Libyans lately?  I've not seen anything.

Steve

that is some serious nostalgia right there.  One of the hit records from way back in March -- 20,000 syrian fighters on the way!  somehow that song just doesn't age well. 

[Battlefront.com]

Because nobody's posted a picture or two of abandoned Russian tanks doesn't mean they aren't still being abandoned.  See...

 

[Battlefront.com]

Schlottman weighing in with some calculations about artillery using the recently released numbers:

 

[Battlefront.com]

Hate to break it to you wives of the DPR, there's a reason why you haven't heard from your 200 husbands since February 24th and why nobody in the DPR will answer your questions.

Another one from Dmitri which shows the desperation some Russian soldiers are facing.  The guy got hit and was disappointed to find out his body armor had stopped him from getting a stomach wound.

 

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hate to break it to you wives of the DPR, there's a reason why you haven't heard from your 200 husbands since February 24th and why nobody in the DPR will answer your questions.

Another one from Dmitri which shows the desperation some Russian soldiers are facing.  The guy got hit and was disappointed to find out his body armor had stopped him from getting a stomach wound.

 

That is some serious delusion: "are we meant to complain to Putin?".  He cares so deeply about his people, especially in DPR.  He definitely will make your troubles vanish if you just escalate your complaints.  If you can just make so much noise that you get Putin's attention, you'll surely never have another thing to complain about, guaranteed.

[dan/california]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!