How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Ultradave said:

Yes, indeed. They just have to see them for their strengths and flexibility and not expose them needlessly. As stated, there are many tasks that they can help with, that don't involve going toe-to-toe with 20mm auto cannons or worse. I agree with the sentiment - if thee choice is a civilian 4x4 or a M113, guess which I'm going with?

Dave

I'm getting the feeling that the age of the average M113 supporter might be older than the vehicle itself.  Just throwing that out there

Steve

[chuckdyke]

The tank has or will have the technology to detect an ATGM as soon as it fires and will react to it. I don't think an IFV will replace it anytime soon. What next Excalibur or some other 'thinking' munition for its 120 mm gun? The 120 mm gun will be useful for a long time to come. 

[sross112]

I think the M113 and Leo1 options are very similar. You can't use a 1A5 like a 2A6 and you can't use a M113 like a M3. Neither are useless, they just need to be used wisely. 

A question for the artillery authorities. How best to employ the arriving arty? Should X number of brigades be refitted completely? Keeps the guns together, allows for concentration of fire and easier logistics. Spread them around in batteries for special applications? No concentration of fire but good capabilities over a very wide area, harder logistics. Or maybe form independent arty BN's to be assigned to regional support?

[akd]

BMP-3s and T-80BVs with weird “halos” arriving to Popasna area. The several-times-pictured T-72B3 turret lollipopped into the earth is seen in the background.

 

Edited April 29, 2022 by akd

[LongLeftFlank]

5 hours ago, Combatintman said:

There was some talk of another 3-5 rocking up near Izyum a few days back.  Of course we have batted the figures around a bit and I said then that it was not clear what the oft batted around number of '22 x BTGs in the Izyum area' actually meant.  The salient extending south from Izyum I seem to recall I assessed at 16 max.  The ponderous advance south has undoubtedly chewed through at least 3-4 of whatever number is up there.  If the push in the general direction of Barvinkove, with the intent of hooking east towards Slovyansk once across the river is the ME then at the rate they're going that is at least a fortnight away before they get there and more combat power than they've got, assuming that every town/village is going to be contested en route.  Taking Dovhenke as the example ... its hardly Stalingrad and if memory serves, it took 2-3 days (and probably at least one BTG) to break in there.

 

 

 

They've committed 106th VDV to an open country armoured offensive, which seems like a bizarre use of airborne infantry, even mounted. Throwing in the reserves?*

Also, curious whether they're forming their own BTGs, or they're attaching companies of paratroopers to try to stiffen/screen the BTGs that are based on mech formations? (Basically, giving them the cross country leg infantry they should have had all along).

In such dire straits, that's what I would do as the RA commander, a la Kampfgruppe Peiper (although that didn't solve things for him either).

... Of course then I could readily see the paras telling the BTG tank officers, or Gerasimov himself, to 'eff your mother' when ordered to close assault villages, etc.

* EDIT:  Of course, the VDV could also be tasked with securing the Oleksandrivka/Svyiatohirsk massif, which overlooks the northwest approaches to Lyman and could also offer a river crossing and a 'covered' approach to the northern environs of Sloviansk city.  Definitely a job for crack infantry, but it'll basically expend the regiment....

Edited April 29, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

More evidence that things are going poorly down in the main attack of Izyum.  Russians have apparently pulled more troops away from Kharkiv and replaced them with untrained forced conscripts from DPR:

Also interesting is that the Russians intercepted the entire roster of the International Brigade fighting in southern Ukraine.  The list contains 700 names.  I just poked into it a little bit (I don't want to link to it here) and found c.50 Americans on there.  A non-scientific sampling of names from all nations shows that many (most?) are not Ukrainian.  Meaning, they aren't ex-pats returning home to fight.

This is the first indication of the size of the foreign volunteers fighting in concentrated groups.  The number is the equivalent to about two light infantry battalions.  IMHO that's a significant number, especially because these guys are supposed to all have military experience.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

There's another dimension to the move to have Gerasimov command the offensive ("operationally and tactically" as ISW put it); autocracies rarely move around people purely based on need and merit.  There is almost always some sort of political motivation, if not outright infighting, that is involved in such things.  Corporations are often just as political as governments, so parallels with corporate infighting are appropriate to think of.

Positions that are certain to involve significant failure aren't in the best interests of anybody in any type of organization.  However, they are excellent places to maneuver an opponent into.  Gerasimov might be in this field command position because someone wanted him gone.  If not Putin, then someone who has Putin's ear.  When this offensive is over I expect something will happen to Gerasimov.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

When this offensive is over I expect something will happen to Gerasimov.

Steve

Plenty of precedent for that, both recent and deeper in Soviet/Czarist history....

 

 

 

Edited April 29, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[chuckdyke]

David ordered Joab to place Uriah where the fighting was most fierce. Nothing new here, it is as old as warfare. 

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Back to the BTG thing...

I am now leery of any claim of "BTG" I see.  I have a feeling that most of them are hollow out shells of their former selves.  Much like how the German 6th SS Panzer Army was so named because it had a total of 6 tanks.  I am inclined to take any count of BTGs and divide it in half to determine rough equivalency in fighting strength to a full BTG.  That might be hitting the count too hard, but then again it might be generous!

If we presume 700 as the average BTG size going into this war, and the average is now 350, this means a this would mean a paper strength 22 BTG force has a real strength of around 7700.  The low end KIA/WIA count seems to be around 200 men every day lost.  That's about 8 days of fighting before the "22 BTGs" are totally spent.  We are at Day 11 of the offensive.

I think we're seeing signs that my rough calculations are not all that off the mark.  If they are roughly correct, then the new BTGs being thrown into the battle are there to keep the basic offensive moving forward, not as some sort of breakthrough force.  And if that's all they have left, then this battle is over by the end of the week or early next week.

Steve

The exact force levels on both sides are subject to the fog of war, to put it mildly. But the way the relative power balance between the two armies is changing is clear as day.The Ukrainians are getting a massive ongoing infusion of Nato gear, and have a huge batch of reservist training up to march east bearing it. And every sign there is another round of reservists behind them who will march east with even more and better NATO gear. The Russians simply have no hope any large infusion of even minimally trained troops before September, when the new conscript class might be loosely considered trained. But the Russian casualties have been so bad it isn't even clear who is going to train or command those conscripts, if they even show up. 

This is an extremely long winded way of saying that right now, this minute is the best force balance against the Ukrainians the Russians are going to have for the foreseeable future. It doesn't seem to be enough. I will simply quote Von Runstedt's advice to German General Staff when it became clear that the D-day had succeeded and there was no chance of pushing the allied forces back into the sea. "Make peace, you fools". 

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

"Make peace, you fools". 

It got him in the history books, it also cost him his job. At least till the Battle of the Bulge. 

[dan/california]

It was also correct...

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

They've committed 106th VDV to an open country armoured offensive, which seems like a bizarre use of airborne infantry, even mounted. Throwing in the reserves?*

Also, curious whether they're forming their own BTGs, or they're attaching companies of paratroopers to try to stiffen/screen the BTGs that are based on mech formations? (Basically, giving them the cross country leg infantry they should have had all along).

In such dire straits, that's what I would do as the RA commander, a la Kampfgruppe Peiper (although that didn't solve things for him either).

... Of course then I could readily see the paras telling the BTG tank officers, or Gerasimov himself, to 'eff your mother' when ordered to close assault villages, etc.

* EDIT:  Of course, the VDV could also be tasked with securing the Oleksandrivka/Svyiatohirsk massif, which overlooks the northwest approaches to Lyman and could also offer a river crossing and a 'covered' approach to the northern environs of Sloviansk city.  Definitely a job for crack infantry, but it'll basically expend the regiment....

How many of the bridges in Izyum are still intact?  It looks like there are/were only three to start, and a small bridge to the southeast at Yaremivka that RA may control at their edge.  Is UA drawing a bunch of RA forces across the river and then able to cut off their supply lines at the bridges, either by dropping the bridges or by denying them with drone-directed arty?  They could potentially render a bunch of the reformed and apparently reinforced BTGs ineffective pretty quickly if they trap them south of the river.  That would reduce the forces available to defend Donbas when it's time for a UA offensive.

[Battlefront.com]

Yet another intercepted message outlining dire Russian morale.  No idea if this is DLPR or regular Russian forces:

 

[Machor]

13 minutes ago, dan/california said:

"Make peace, you fools".

Now, we do a remake where Hitler gets to have nukes...

Serious question: Why didn't Nazi Germany use chemical weapons? I just read up on nerve agents in Wikipedia: Germany had a monopoly on these, and had produced up to 30000 tons of Tabun and 10 tons of Sarin.

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, Machor said:

Why didn't Nazi Germany use chemical weapons?

The stuff is a two-edged sword. It is like using a hand grenade during a domestic argument. You blow the house up and kill yourself as well. 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 minute ago, Machor said:

Now, we do a remake where Hitler gets to have nukes...

Serious question: Why didn't Nazi Germany use chemical weapons? I just read up on nerve agents in Wikipedia: Germany had a monopoly on these, and had produced up to 30000 tons of Tabun and 10 tons of Sarin.

1.  Hitler was himself a victim of a gas attack, so unlike his other delusions he didn't have so many regarding their effects and limitations.

2. Gas (delivered by shells) is generally understood to restrict battlefield mobility; i.e. slow down attacks.  It took Hitler until 1944 to really internalize Germany was on the defense and wasn't about to resume the offensive, which might have made gas weapons more tempting for him.

3. By that time, the Allied bombing of the Reich was going on in earnest. The Allies had made it clear prewar that once the Germans began using gas, dropping it on war factories and their adjoining cities was fair game. So that wasn't going to trade off for him, even with V-bombs.

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, chuckdyke said:

The stuff is a two-edged sword. It is like using a hand grenade during a domestic argument. You blow the house up and kill yourself as well. 

There is also ample documentation that German officers were very, very aware that they would be held to account after the war was over.  Since they knew the war wasn't likely to end well for their side, it is probable that there was no mindset within the military to use the weapons because a) they are ineffective, b) they likely cause panic/death among friendly, and c) there was concern about getting strung up by the neck after the war.

Take this thinking and swap out "c" with c) NATO might get directly involved and that will produce a military defeat for sure, in which case they might get strung up by the neck by their own people long before the West could.

Steve

[akd]

 Popasna:

 

[Kraft]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is the first indication of the size of the foreign volunteers fighting in concentrated groups.  The number is the equivalent to about two light infantry battalions.  IMHO that's a significant number, especially because these guys are supposed to all have military experience.

Steve

I dug the list up and it seems fishy to me. I looked up about a dozen known volunteers and could not find any of them.

I also tried to vouch about 50 names from UK, USA, Ger, Belarus on google, facebook, twitter and instagram and could only ID one that is in Ukraine (Lviv, preaching the gospel to refugees).

I could not identify anyone who is armed with more.. potent ruskie removal tools than prayers and I assume atleast some would be active on social media. Maybe just bad luck but seems kind of odd.

If we assume military training at the minimum requirement a lot of those from countries with pure contract army would have had to desert their posts at home to join as there are plenty 2004,2003,2002,.. (damn I'm already old in military terms).

No idea why someone would fake this list, or if it is legit and my social media search was just incompetent, why is the list so bad that it doesn't include the ones openly active online?

Edited April 29, 2022 by Kraft

[dan/california]

35 minutes ago, Kraft said:

I dug the list up and it seems fishy to me. I looked up about a dozen known volunteers and could not find any of them.

I also tried to vouch about 50 names from UK, USA, Ger, Belarus on google, facebook, twitter and instagram and could only ID one that is in Ukraine (Lviv, preaching the gospel to refugees).

I could not identify anyone who is armed with more.. potent ruskie removal tools than prayers and I assume atleast some would be active on social media. Maybe just bad luck but seems kind of odd.

If we assume military training at the minimum requirement a lot of those from countries with pure contract army would have had to desert their posts at home to join as there are plenty 2004,2003,2002,.. (damn I'm already old in military terms).

No idea why someone would fake this list, or if it is legit and my social media search was just incompetent, why is the list so bad that it doesn't include the ones openly active online?

Probably tradecraft 101 to use fake names on a list like that. And doubly so if they recently separated from their home countries' military. Quintuply so if, as I have strongly suspected since about day four of this war, there are entire units of Polish/Balt/Czech special forces/ airborne types that all decided to "enter civilian life" as a unit about February 20th. I saw a report in the last few days that an extraordinary number of the British trainers who have served in Ukraine since 2014 have showed up as well. I honestly can't remember if that was on the board or not. I would expect a great many artillery branch from the same sources to come in with the NATO 155mm guns. You can't exactly tell a Pole from a Ukrainian by looking.

[dan/california]

And sadly I found this immediately after I wrote my last post. Brave men are dying to put Push Putin back.

 

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, Kraft said:

No idea why someone would fake this list, or if it is legit and my social media search was just incompetent, why is the list so bad that it doesn't include the ones openly active online?

Some of the ones I follow are not in this particular Brigade.  Some are fighting alongside TD or out on their own in coordination with NG or TD.  So that would explain that.

However, I think you are onto something!

Most of the US names are too generic to easily search.  However, I did find a couple that seem to match the birth dates.  One is a pretty popular Public Radio reporter   Another that fits, and is a US Navy vet, but the article I found him in was his time competing in a military form of Paralympics... so he's not likely in Ukraine fighting.

I could find no evidence of military career or involvement in Ukraine for a half dozen or so unique US names on Facebook or Linkedin.  Twitter is a mess to try and find someone with just their name.  I did locate one account that was opened in March and is private view only, which isn't evidence of a link to the document but could be.

Obviously I don't have the time to search through all these names, but it does seem a little odd that neither of us were able to find.  Yet... this is a really big effort to fake a list like this.  The US based names and birth dates all look pretty plausible to me, and I'm even pretty sure I found a couple good matches with simple address/DoB matches.  So if someone faked this, they spent a lot of time on it.  And for what purpose?  We all know that Russia has good intel capabilities.  We all know there's lots of foreigners fighting in Ukraine.  Why go through the hassle of building such a list?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

 Popasna:

The level of destruction never fails to awe me.  So much waste for absolutely no meaningful reason.

Steve

[chrisl]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Obviously I don't have the time to search through all these names, but it does seem a little odd that neither of us were able to find.  Yet... this is a really big effort to fake a list like this.  The US based names and birth dates all look pretty plausible to me, and I'm even pretty sure I found a couple good matches with simple address/DoB matches.  So if someone faked this, they spent a lot of time on it.  And for what purpose?  We all know that Russia has good intel capabilities.  We all know there's lots of foreigners fighting in Ukraine.  Why go through the hassle of building such a list?

Getting lists of names and birthdates has got to be pretty easy, given the huge numbers of hacks of PII that happen.  China has all that plus background check information (including TS/SCI investigations) with copies of fingerprints for anyone who applied for a job or clearance in the US gov't from when it went online up to about 2015 (except for a few agencies that don't use the common system).  A few minutes with a hacked PII list and your favorite scripting language and you can randomly pull people with birthdates in a reasonable range to be ex-mil and still young enough to fight.  So it's unlikely that it took a lot of effort if Russia is still managing to pay any of their hackers enough to spend an hour on it.  

But you're right that there's no obvious purpose behind it, and it's almost as easy for people who would need to know to be able to check that it's nonsense.