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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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6 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

If true, this could be the Russian version of "boiling the frog". 

Yep, they are testing how far they can go and they surely won´t stop.

From the russian perspective it so far looks like this:

- Attacking a neighbouring country - No significant military response by NATO

- Shelling civilians and bombing them to heaven - No significant military response by NATO

- Raping women and children - No significant military response by NATO

- Torturing and killing civilians - No significant military response by NATO

- List-operated killing squads against civilians - No significant military response by NATO

- Bombing and killing fleeing civilians at train station - No significant military response by NATO

- Using a chemical agent in Mariupol - ...

and so on and so forth...

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5 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

The answer should be 'Yes'.  Or the neverending threats from Russia with WMD will begin. 

"Stop supplying Ukraine or else.!"

"Remove all sanctions or else!"   On and on.

If it is going to be WW3, get on with it then.  I have had %$^&* enough of threats. 

 

 

2 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Yep, they are testing how far they can go and they surely won´t stop.

From the russian perspective it so far looks like this:

- Attacking a neighbouring country - No significant military response by NATO

- Shelling civilians and bombing them to heaven - No significant military response by NATO

- Raping women and children - No significant military response by NATO

- Torturing and killing civilians - No significant military response by NATO

- List-operated killing squads against civilians - No significant military response by NATO

- Bombing and killing fleeing civilians at train station - No significant military response by NATO

- Using a chemical agent in Mariupol - ...

and so on and so forth...

NATO just needs get in this this, ALL THE WAY. START killing every Russian Vehicle in Ukraine, and spare few cruise missiles for the Presidential palace in Minsk. Lukashenko has his own bill to pay.

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9 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

The answer should be 'Yes'.  Or the neverending threats from Russia with WMD will begin. 

"Stop supplying Ukraine or else.!"

"Remove all sanctions or else!"   On and on.

If it is going to be WW3, get on with it then.  I have had %$^&* enough of threats. 

 

Yes it's always nice to call for a World War when others will do the fighting on distant lands beyond the oceans. 

 

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3 minutes ago, The Steppenwulf said:

This action also speaks to how desperate the Russians have finally become in their efforts to capture Mariupol. The Russian units invested there were on their knees almost as much as Azov. Sheer desperation - I'd bet they were on the verge of failing! 

Azov are fortified in a Soviet era (possibly nuclear?) underground structure, I guess chemicals is the only way to force them at least to surrender?

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8 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Can you guys just wait and see if this actually gets confirmed before calling for WW3?

So far, all we have is a statement by Azov, nothing more.

Honestly, if they used a WMD, then WW3 is well underway.  No way the west can just sit back and shrug about that.  None.

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1 minute ago, panzermartin said:

Yes and I'm sorry that had to happen...

The point is, it didn't 'had to happen'  Russia chose this path and here we are....

A line from Babylon 5, a cracking good series.

"The avalanche has started.  It is too late for the pebbles to protest..."

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6 minutes ago, The Steppenwulf said:

There also could be an element of the 'new guy' making his mark.

The claimed destruction of Ukrainian Military equipment from today's Victory briefing has certainly skyrocketed, I have yet to see any increase in visual evidence though😉 

Edited by Kraft
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Just now, BlackMoria said:

The point is, it didn't 'had to happen'  Russia chose this path and here we are....

A line from Babylon 5, a cracking good series.

"The avalanche has started.  It is too late for the pebbles to protest..."

No I don't really agree. Kissinger had warned us about the life and death issue for Russia on Ukraine and that neutrality was the way to go. Politicians of this era are uneducated and have become progressively clueless and this situation is beyond what they can handle. We are not going to fight a world war because of miscalculated politics, so we should stop yelling for it like a cheerleader every time a fake or unconfirmed bit of info is surfaced. 

 

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23 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

No I don't really agree. Kissinger had warned us about the life and death issue for Russia on Ukraine and that neutrality was the way to go. 

If you think this war is just about Ukraine you are mistaken. 

Listen to Putins hour long ramble about the West and old USSR before he gave the Invasion order.

This is not some smart geopolitical game to strenghen Russia that went a little too far.

This is about restoring old borders, regardless of the cost, militarily or economically to Russia. Most Analyist thought Putin would not attack, because it makes no sense - from their POV.

Putin sees the world from a different lense of the last century and in his mind this mad decision was the way to go and has been planned for a long time. 

Edited by Kraft
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2 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

No I don't really agree. Kissinger had warned us about the life and death issue for Russia on Ukraine and that neutrality was the way to go. Politicians of this era are uneducated and have become progressively clueless and this situation is beyond what they can handle. We are not going to fight a world war because of miscalculated politics, so we should stop yelling for it like a cheerleader every time a fake or unconfirmed bit of info is surfaced. 

 

Well yes some of them have become clueless. They keep buying Russian gas and pretending Putin is someone you can make a deal with. The smart ones understand we are rerunning 1938, and that 1939 was too bloody late. Germany utterly bleeped up its energy systems for thirty years, the bill is due. Sorry about that.

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5 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

No I don't really agree. Kissinger had warned us about the life and death issue for Russia on Ukraine and that neutrality was the way to go. Politicians of this era are uneducated and have become progressively clueless and this situation is beyond what they can handle. We are not going to fight a world war because of miscalculated politics, so we should stop yelling for it like a cheerleader every time a fake or unconfirmed bit of info is surfaced. 

 

You are wrong.  The two world wars and other conflicts fought in the last 100 years were because of 'miscalculated politics'.  Humanity has a terrible batting average in that regard.   World War 3 will start the same way, miscalculated politics.  And it all started with the first 'miscalculation' by Putin.  

 

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22 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

No I don't really agree. Kissinger had warned us about the life and death issue for Russia on Ukraine and that neutrality was the way to go. Politicians of this era are uneducated and have become progressively clueless and this situation is beyond what they can handle. We are not going to fight a world war because of miscalculated politics, so we should stop yelling for it like a cheerleader every time a fake or unconfirmed bit of info is surfaced. 

 

Russia doesn't get to tell Ukraine who their friends are anymore than they get to tell Finland or France who the pal around with.  Sorry, the world of Kissinger and company was 50 years ago...it's a world that Putin still occupies, but the rest of us have moved on...

...we are already fighting a world war start 6 weeks or so ago.  Don't kid yourself.

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1 minute ago, asurob said:

Honestly, if they used a WMD, then WW3 is well underway.  No way the west can just sit back and shrug about that.  None.

Oh, I think "They" (we) can. Did when it happened in Syria, to "much nicer"* (though less combat effective) people. And I'm pretty sure Ukraine would rather not inherit an NBC wasteland once they kick the Russians out, even if that's a decade down the line (it won't be). Cos the only way Russians stop a US BCT at this stage is tac nukes.

My gut reaction is to escalate, too. Cruise missiles (though aren't they vulnerable to Russian AD, which does seem, at least near the border, to be fairly effective); making naval assets have mysterious deep sea accidents; shutting down the petro exports (surely Germany has some reserves to draw on, even if depleted; it shouldn't take long to bring Russia to its knees). Closing the seas to Russian shipping and cargoes, in and outbound.

But... it's a pipe dream as it stands. Realpolitik. Ukraine, with the help that's being sent, is enough. In the wide world, there is such a thing as overkill. It sucks for Ukraine, I know, but get any escalation wrong, and it'll suck worse for them.

Maybe Biden can persuade India to shake loose some ordnance that's compatible with Ukraine's need; they're trying to downsize their overpaid army and they need to show some willing to avoid getting sanctioned for buying stuff off Russia... S400s, maybe? That'd be poetic.

18 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Azov are fortified in a Soviet era (possibly nuclear?) underground structure, I guess chemicals is the only way to force them at least to surrender?

If it's a "proper bunker", it'll be pretty much proof against chemical attack, won't it? So the attempt will have achieved nothing much...

* Whatever the truth about them, Azov have an inconvenient reputation. I don't know anything, other than reports of the reputation have reached even me...

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9 minutes ago, asurob said:

Sorry, the world of Kissinger and company was 50 years ago...it's a world that Putin still occupies, but the rest of us have moved on...

Got to agree. Kissinger context was Soviet Russia and the Warsaw Pact. Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity was established at the Budapest agreements to which the RF was a signatory.   

Edited by The Steppenwulf
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