How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Homo_Ferricus]

2 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Are there any Russian Sources of information which are not simply repeating  Kremlin Propaganda ? Can you list them ? Maybe of use for other Russia Speakers on the Forums to  review and confirm the usefulness  or not .

There are no sources that I go to regularly, but the zeitgeist sometimes pushes Russian sources to me, largely from Youtube, sometimes other places. A lot of it is propaganda, but that can also be useful at times for interpolating data, or at least figuring out what the party line is. Knowing the language helps a lot with understanding all the little things being said in videos and coming from the Russian public, moreso than being able to read official sources even.

Here's a video from an hour ago from Ru MoD--keep in mind I think the reported numbers are probably total crap. But it is interesting that they report hitting west Lviv oblast with "Long-reaching precision weapons" and claim to have killed an unrealistic number of foreign fighters and destroyed NATO weapons imports. By the way YT auto-translate is generally good enough that even english speakers can go to Russian sources, there.

 

[Maquisard manqué]

12 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Are there any Russian Sources of information which are not simply repeating  Kremlin Propaganda ? Can you list them ? Maybe of use for other Russia Speakers on the Forums to  review and confirm the usefulness  or not .

There are no longer any legal ones! Anything not repeating the sanctioned line is illegal since last week (or is it 2?).

Edited March 13, 2022 by Maquisard manqué
clarity

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

UKR troops ambushed Russian convoy (on the second photo at least KAMAZ and some armor seen on the background)  and captured MTU-90 bridge layer. Jusdging of the writing "For Okhtyrka" on the vehicle, made by our soldiers, this is Sumy oblast around this town

MTU-90 is adopted in 1997. It maintains a passage of 24 m length for vehicles up to 50 tons of weight

That is a Div/CAA level asset.  The steady stream of these types of losses demonstrate the merry hell the UA is waging in Russian rear areas.

[akd]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is a Div/CAA level asset.  The steady stream of these types of losses demonstrate the merry hell the UA is waging in Russian rear areas.

Video of this wrecked column:

 

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Maquisard manqué said:

There are no longer any legal ones now!

Worth your life to even hint at the truth in Russia now, or near as makes no matter. The thing that I keep coming back too is that Russia has lost the information war outside of Russia, even more catastrophically than they otherwise would have, due to Putin's bright idea about not admitting they are even fighting. So they really haven't even tried to put out much combat footage that makes them look good, and so on.

[kraze]

13 minutes ago, sburke said:

As much as I sympathize with UKR I agree with @Maquisard manqué  It isn''t so simple.  Using my home country as an example, we all have access to the same info.  However you still end up with a spectrum of views that is all over the place and in many cases extremely all over the place.  Then you add the bubbles we create for ourselves in social media and it accelerates.  That is without a government driven narrative that has control of most of the media sources.  Saying people have access and should know better.. well that hasn't worked so well in our response to the pandemic much less human enemies.

I see those pics of the attack on that hospital in Mariupol and part of me wants to see Ukraine doing mass trials of Russian prisoners for war crimes right now.  That however is an emotional response that would be counter to Ukraine's war effort and counter productive.

Oh I agree about the bubble. A comfort bubble is created by all of us in one way or another, but using a comfort bubble as an excuse in an information age no longer works.

Today a person can get educated if that person only chooses to do so.

But most importantly - let's not fool ourselves thinking that when a russian "conscript" calls his girlfriend and happily boasts to her about how his fellow invader raped a woman in a town they captured, after robbing her and then ended up killing her - and then his gf tells him "kill, rob, just don't rape them yourself or I'll be angry" - that's because they live in a comfort bubble.

 

Edited March 13, 2022 by kraze

[Homo_Ferricus]

52 minutes ago, kraze said:

Latest US DoD estimate is 5k-6k dead

Ukrainian estimate is 12k casualties.

Meaning US numbers are much higher than ours

 

Are you sure you have that right? Everything I've seen has said 12k deaths. UA MoD website loads slowly and I haven't found the figures straight from the horses mouth, but here's an example from a Guardian article from Friday:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/russia-ukraine-war-numbers-casualties-refugees-aid

[The_Capt]

So did someone already post on this?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-delegate-says-talks-with-ukraine-may-soon-produce-draft-agreements-2022-03-13/

This is an indicator if true and not just stall tactics.  Russia came into this with a zero compromise position, if they are starting to drift on that it is likely due to loss of military solutions, which matches the piling up of losses.  

Or , they are just stalling for time, but since there is no ceasefire or sanctions hanging on a result, this is not really effective stalling.

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That is a Div/CAA level asset.  The steady stream of these types of losses demonstrate the merry hell the UA is waging in Russian rear areas.

There was update - this is MTU-72 not MTU-90. The difference 18 m lenghth bridge instead 24.

[akd]

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

@Haiduk Do we have any indications the Russians are actually conducting this door-to-door control in occupied regions effectively?  This is straight out of the playbook but I have not seen a lot to indicate the Russians have been able to organized an effective counter-resistance security effort anywhere.  I mean searching every house for a phone, or trying to DF locate is a lot of work and labor intensive, and next to impossible.  Have they even managed to knock out cell towers in the areas they "control".    For that matter has EM jamming been seen as effective?

A few pages back, I posted a tweet from the Kyiv Post indicating that Russian forces had entirely departed from Skadovsk south of Kherson. It’s not directly on the MSR from Crimea to Kherson, but it is one of the main settlements south of Kherson and is not far from the MSR.  I guess there could be different interpretations for this, but the most likely is that they don’t have forces to garrison it.

[The_Capt]

Just now, Haiduk said:

There was update - this is MTU-72 not MTU-90. The difference 18 m lenghth bridge instead 24.

That does not change the assessment.  All these high level assets, Arty, AD, Engineering, Comms and CPs, logistics (e.g. re-fuelers) are not normal losses.  Tanks, IFVs are supposed to die...it is their job.  All this other stuff is not, at least not in the volumes we are seeing. 

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, akd said:

A few pages back, I posted a tweet from the Kyiv Post indicating that Russian forces had entirely departed from Skadovsk south of Kherson. It’s not directly on the MSR from Crimea to Kherson, but it is one of the main settlements south of Kherson and is not far from the MSR.  I guess there could be different interpretations for this, but the most likely is that they don’t have forces to garrison it.

So I kinda fall back on my assessment:

Russian forces don't control sh#t right now, but they are terrorizing everywhere and none of that is good from a long term occupation standpoint.

[kraze]

8 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

Are you sure you have that right? Everything I've seen has said 12k deaths. UA MoD website loads slowly and I haven't found the figures straight from the horses mouth, but here's an example from a Guardian article from Friday:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/russia-ukraine-war-numbers-casualties-refugees-aid

I didn't know The Guardian is now ran by our DoD.

How about checking actual official source?

https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2022/03/10/vtrati-rosijskih-okupantiv-stanovlyat-ponad-12-000-osib-znishheno-majzhe-2400-odinicz-vorozhogo-ozbroennya-i-vijskovoi-tehniki-–-generalnij-shtab-zs-ukraini/

Втрата translates to loss, not 'death'

Our DoD doesn't calculate dead or wounded because that's impossible. But press is uneducated in milspeak.

So again, check actual sources

 

Edited March 13, 2022 by kraze

[Haiduk]

9 minutes ago, akd said:

A few pages back, I posted a tweet from the Kyiv Post indicating that Russian forces had entirely departed from Skadovsk south of Kherson. It’s not directly on the MSR from Crimea to Kherson, but it is one of the main settlements south of Kherson and is not far from the MSR.  I guess there could be different interpretations for this, but the most likely is that they don’t have forces to garrison it.

They already again entered to Skadovsk. About 30 vehicles. But reportedly they just going to stay here at the night and move further. This part of Kherson oblast hasn't any operative or strategiacal sense, so Russian occupation probably will be here more soft 

Edited March 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[Homo_Ferricus]

4 minutes ago, kraze said:

https://www.mil.gov.ua/news/2022/03/10/vtrati-rosijskih-okupantiv-stanovlyat-ponad-12-000-osib-znishheno-majzhe-2400-odinicz-vorozhogo-ozbroennya-i-vijskovoi-tehniki-–-generalnij-shtab-zs-ukraini/

Втрата translates to loss, not 'death'

Thanks, appreciate the clarification. I think international media has translated that as "12,000 deaths" and are running with that. 

[TheVulture]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That does not change the assessment.  All these high level assets, Arty, AD, Engineering, Comms and CPs, logistics (e.g. re-fuelers) are not normal losses.  Tanks, IFVs are supposed to die...it is their job.  All this other stuff is not, at least not in the volumes we are seeing. 

And certainly not supposed to be captured intact or simply abandoned. 

[Haiduk]

24 minutes ago, akd said:

Video of this wrecked column:

 

There is interest detail - our soldier at the end of the video shows a holes in the road and says "here was our IED"

Edited March 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[Lethaface]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Lotta lessons no doubt, but at the tactical level the one I am watching for is "are highly mobile and connected light infantry upscaling and able to effectively stop heavy mech through a combination of speed, range, lethality and self-synchronization?", has "Deep Battle" become "360 Battle" in conventional warfare?

For the historians in the group, one of the last times this happened the Mongols took over most of the known planet...so there is that.

Before armies throw away all their mech heavy forces ;-), to this amateur it looks more like that Russia simply didn't bring the numbers required for their plan, while the plan imploded on itself for all the reasons that already passed in this thread.

Ukraine not only has the will to fight, but also the numbers (who knows how much troops they have deployed atm but probably quite a bit much more than Russian troops in Ukraine), depth and weapons to fight a defensive somewhat guerilla style war. 

While I have 0 doubt that Western intelligence is helping Ukraine (and supplied weapons surely help or can even make a difference), I feel that in this thread and beyond there is perhaps too much credit for Western help being THE reason for Ukrainian forces doing well.
Imo the main thing the Western support is doing is enabling Ukraine to continue the war and feel it's not without support. Ukraine is doing all the hard fighting themselves. The training / support since 2014 will of course have it's influence as well.

Anyway I think it's interesting to look at WW2 numbers compared to current. Many armies have moved to a smaller , professional (and often highly capable) and mainly mechanized force. But those are not invulnerable and won't be great for 'manning the frontline'. I think that Ukraine, with the TD and other units, are actually manning the 'frontline' (and perhaps sometimes allowing enemy forces to bypass) and have relative easy pickings when enemy columns are moving through their zone.

All in all I think it's clear Russia didn't brought enough troops to secure/control (let alone clear) the routes / corridors required to be controlled to allow for supply of their forces. While also suffering heavy casualties on forces in transit. The 'tip of the spear' units to me looked often more like 'forces in transit' and amounts to feeding forces into the jaws of destruction, piecemeal. 

So not sure how more insight the tactics of this war really bring, compared to running some scenario's in CMBS/CMSF2. Running a low motivated tank company in a column formation along a road vs ambushing infantry with decent ATGMs will usually end in bad times for the tank company.

PS Just back from playing a (very) lowlevel sundays football match and had some beers, so might not be my most coherent post lol.

[Haiduk]

Mariupol. "Azov" shells Russian vehicles with mortars, using drone fire adjustment

 

Edited March 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[db_zero]

On 3/12/2022 at 10:57 AM, BFCElvis said:

I don't know if it's already been mentioned but, that intersection was used in the first battle of The Shield of Kiev campaign in CMBS as an ambush location against an armored column. Even down to the grass patches in the fuel stations lot.

 

 

 

Remember that picture floating around years showing Putin smiling at a computer screen that showed what looked like CM Black Sea?

Was that ever verified as authentic or some photoshop job?

Maybe it influenced him into thinking it would be a cakewalk-no Javelin or NLAW equipped Ukrainians.

[DesertFox]

Looks like an artillery strike hit home. Nice one.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 13, 2022 by DesertFox

[db_zero]

That missile strike that hit the military installation this morning was being used as a training center for the International Brigade- saw this reported.

May see some foreign fighters injured if report is accurate.

If what some have said about the Russians being overconfident and fighting with 1 hand tied behind their back at the beginning of the war, then we may start seeing more of the Russian AF if they were not fully prepared at beginning of war due to overconfidence.

 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So did someone already post on this?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-delegate-says-talks-with-ukraine-may-soon-produce-draft-agreements-2022-03-13/

This is an indicator if true and not just stall tactics.  Russia came into this with a zero compromise position, if they are starting to drift on that it is likely due to loss of military solutions, which matches the piling up of losses.  

Or , they are just stalling for time, but since there is no ceasefire or sanctions hanging on a result, this is not really effective stalling.

There's an argument out there that no negotiation with the Russian government should be taken seriously until well after the troops actually withdraw. I endorse it.

[kraze]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

So I kinda fall back on my assessment:

Russian forces don't control sh#t right now, but they are terrorizing everywhere and none of that is good from a long term occupation standpoint.

Hence why they are the most fanatic subscribers of the Daily Ambush

[Haiduk]

Rare thing. Destroyed Russian DT-30 articulated tracked carrier. Theese vehiciles use in hard terrain, so I thinh this is Zhytomyr of north of Kyiv oblast, where many forests, swamps, soft ground, creeks etc.

 

Edited March 13, 2022 by Haiduk