ArmouredTopHat

Forgive the er...interesting editing of this footage, I think its worth viewing all the same. 

I think you are spot on honestly. I know I am very much guilty of last wording debates and need to work on it. No offense taken in the slightest. 

Please don't take offense - none is intended but at the same time I recognize you both might not like to hear what I'm about to say. I'm just offering an observation that you can do with what you wish.
Just form observing both of you (one of you for years : - ) you both seem like the type that feels a need to get in the last word. That can be a very hard thing to deal with when you disagree. As I am sure you can reflect you both had opportunities where you could have said, to your self, "there is nothing new in that comment so I don't need to respond" but frequently you both did the opposite.
When no one has had time to reflect or digest more information and may make adjustments to their positions and also has a strong desire to have the last word you can get some serious around and around we go arguments going on.

I do not disagree with this, but that does not mean my opinion gets to be discarded so callously and an insinuation made that I am doing this as part of an 'agenda'. The whole affair reeked of intellectual gatekeeping and its just not very nice. 

I am just a guy who happened to study military history at university and have a great interest in the subject. I dont work for a military company or government, I have literally no stake in this. I was just interested in a forum from a series game I like to play that seemed to be on the ball (and did not tolerate Russian disinformation). Yet Capt decided to make a wild assumption and announce it publicly to that affect in a way that is frankly quite childish. It was simply unnecessary.

Its just more than a little bit insulting when people who I have been following react so caustically to my opinion while also misreading my points and proceed to do the intellectual equivalent of flipping the table despite me saying multiple times I agree on a lot of points and find their notions insightful. I put a lot of time in replying in detail as much as I could to people, so forgive me if I am a little jaded when someone decides to pull a stunt like that. It was not what I expected from this forum to put it simply. 
 
I dont know how many times I have said how open I am to being convinced otherwise, hell I have acknowledged to that effect that partially due to this forum that my views have changed over the course of two years on a lot of things. Yet I get labelled as a 'conservative' all the same for simply thinking that perhaps some conclusions might be premature or that there could be other options? Its like me calling you a drone fanatic or something odd. 

I have literally deferred my opinion several times on subjects. I have asked questions knowing that people have better answers than I do. That does not mean I cant form my own opinions, or look at evidence scattered around that makes similar notions that I do. Certainly doesn't mean certain people here get to discard opinions because they dont agree on them. 

This could of all been avoided with an agree to disagree notion, which I also put forward. 

Fair enough, I admit that some of my arguments were made poorly and in haste due to replying to a lot of people, which certainly did not help. I think its for the best that Capt and I cease interacting certainly, I am just sad he had to do it in such a manner that is so antithesis to his otherwise sound judgement. He makes good points and its sad to see such behaviour in all honesty. 

My only defence to the scattered evidence thing is that this is not exactly an opinion exclusive to me. Could still be wrong for all I know. 

Yea thats not how this works
The issue is more the manufacturer has no incentive to send it to generate sales as theyre already coming and the governments dont because its new gear and we dont really sent much top of the line kit there

I think this is the first footage I have seen of a potential automatic extinguisher at work. (thought it might just be the chad of a fellow on top putting it out himself, its hard to tell.)

The IDF introduced trophy on a single btl. Evaluated it including active combat. rolled it out to an entire brigade and fought some more. Then rolled it out for every MBT and heavy APC.
We have germany and the us independently evaluate it aswell and decide to buy it with britain still evaluating.
It can currently deal with rpgs and atgms that are direct attack or overflying but not diving so currently no javelin interception. It also gives the origin of the detected projectile so a good chance that if you shoot at a such equipped vehicle youre going to catch return fire unless you ko it.
Defending against diving atgm should be quite possible with simply adding another radar panel + interceptor facing up but with those being so far only in use with western armies and maybe china there hasnt been any incentive to cover that angle.
It should in principle also be possible to get it to shoot down FPVs by adjusting its code. Now I wouldnt rely on it alone as the debris from intercepted drones can still damage the radars so if youre getting attacked 10 times you might intercept the first 5 but then youre probably done. But as a layer in the defense it can do quite a bit.
 
Yea i dont fundamentally disagree with this assessment. The question is what exactly needs to change in technology and doctrine.

Timely paper from RUSI by Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds
Tactical Lessons from Israel Defense Forces Operations in Gaza, 2023
The sporadic anti-tank guided missile and persistent RPG threat – often manifesting from a 30–50-m distance from IDF vehicles – posed a challenge for active protection systems (APS). Where APS had either been turned off, did not have a sufficient line of sight between the sensor and the threat, or had already been expended, hits were achieved on IDF vehicles. Nevertheless, while Hamas believed that APS could be defeated with close engagements, this problem was resolved through software updates. In most cases, APS proved effective, although the distance between armour and infantry for APS to be fielded safely also offered Hamas fighters the opportunity to come in extremely close proximity to some vehicles. Nevertheless, it was found that having pairs of vehicles operate in intimate support helped to increase their survivability, as the APS could often overlap and thereby increase the magazine depth to protect the vehicles.

Some interesting information on the Polish K2 acquisition which seems to be taking on board a number of notes from the Ukraine war. 

Well, that's one way to shunt what was initially an very good first impression to why the hell did I even bother taking the time of day to respond to this person in the first place. Truly Disappointing. 

A true cherry on top being that I must have an agenda rather than daring to have my own opinions on a subject. I am sure Rheinmetall is so desperate that they sent me as an agent onto a video game forum to drum up support. 

Well, that's one way to shunt what was initially an very good first impression to why the hell did I even bother taking the time of day to respond to this person in the first place. Truly Disappointing. 

A true cherry on top being that I must have an agenda rather than daring to have my own opinions on a subject. I am sure Rheinmetall is so desperate that they sent me as an agent onto a video game forum to drum up support. 

I entirely agree that a few Russian airbases need the ATACMS treatment. I really wish the Americans were not so spineless in this regard, and I am not hopeful for their future support either, at best we have a lukewarm support from Biden....or the whatever the hell insanity Trump will unleash. Either way we are really lacking that decisive US leadership that we have grown a little too dependant on. 

Can only hope the elections so far this year have set a trend...

Some interesting information on the Polish K2 acquisition which seems to be taking on board a number of notes from the Ukraine war. 

Well, that's one way to shunt what was initially an very good first impression to why the hell did I even bother taking the time of day to respond to this person in the first place. Truly Disappointing. 

A true cherry on top being that I must have an agenda rather than daring to have my own opinions on a subject. I am sure Rheinmetall is so desperate that they sent me as an agent onto a video game forum to drum up support. 

Some interesting information on the Polish K2 acquisition which seems to be taking on board a number of notes from the Ukraine war. 

Well, that's one way to shunt what was initially an very good first impression to why the hell did I even bother taking the time of day to respond to this person in the first place. Truly Disappointing. 

A true cherry on top being that I must have an agenda rather than daring to have my own opinions on a subject. I am sure Rheinmetall is so desperate that they sent me as an agent onto a video game forum to drum up support. 

Heartbreaking.
All kinds of social media platforms are also just absolutely swarming with pro-russian denialists lately, too. Missile type this, missile type that. 
The boldfacedness must be part of the psychological warfare against Ukrainians. Even I feel wary when I see them and I am not involved.
Luckily this forum is keeping a high standard.

Bulgaria is a huge manufacturer of Soviet-type ammunition and we import it sunce ATO times. But i believe USSR remained so huge legacy of "carrots" (PG-7 HEAT), that it can be used long time both in Ukraine and Russia.

A tragedy in my opinion.
I hope I will see the day when it is officially added to Black Sea

Like photos in the JPEG format are no longer admissible as evidence and videos are heading the same way. Its purpose is not only to present facts but also misinformation. 

Comparing the publically available data between the IDF and UA is not exactly straight forward.
The ukrainian units regularly posting videos get additional funding from donations brought in by the videos so they are heavily incentivized to publish as much as possible. They also have an easy time creating the videos from the drones video stream.
The IDF like practically all militaries doesnt want their troops filming so anyone creating videos is at risk of getting in trouble. They also have to put a dedicated camera on the vehicle and have to have it running at the correct time.
So even if fpv hitting a tank and aps intercepting a munition happened exactly the same ammount wed expect to see far more evidence of it publically of the former. So id suggest some caution when disregarding certain things purely based on posted video evidence.
 

The math supports that Ukraine has moved from a traditional (and heavily soviet influenced) artillery-based doctrine to a drone based special delivery doctrine.   Largely because they quite literally used up all the 152 west of the Russian border and most the 155 that anybody was willing to spare.  
They're replacing it with plans to build at least 1M drones in 2024.  While few of the drones have more explosive power than an RPG7 or maybe four M77 bomblets, the precision of delivery makes up for it.
Some statistics that showed up some large number of pages ago suggested that it takes fewer than 10 drones (and likely fewer than 5) to produce 1 russian casualty.  And the drone drivers get more and more experienced because they're at much lower risk than if they were in a trench at the front edge, or even crewing a gun that needs a clear path to shoot.  
So at 100K drones/month, and an efficiency somewhere between 2 and 10 drones/casualty, they can inflict somewhere between 10K and 50K casualties/month on Russia. Even at the low end, drones are causing a significant number of russian casualties.  It's also consistent with the transition we've been seeing of fewer Ukrainians in trenches defending against assaults, or clearing russians out of trenches, and more Russians getting blown up in convoys in drone attacks far from the front lines.  If drones were costly to Ukraine, we wouldn't be seeing lots of videos of drones chasing individuals.  Or a drone being used to destroy a single abandoned PKM.  Or sent as self propelled grenades to clear out blind holes in trenches.
They have a *way* smaller logistical tail than a similar amount of combat power in artillery, tanks, or aircraft.  A suitcase full of drones that weighs less than a single 155 shell (not including propellant) has combat power comparable to somewhere between 10 and 50 conventional 155 shells.  And the drones just need to travel with a battery charger and some coax to run their antenna far away, rather than an M777 and a truck load of propellant bags.
Until someone comes up with effective counter drone and gets it into the field, drones are going to continue to make traditional maneuver elements obsolete at a rapid rate.
 

I entirely agree that a few Russian airbases need the ATACMS treatment. I really wish the Americans were not so spineless in this regard, and I am not hopeful for their future support either, at best we have a lukewarm support from Biden....or the whatever the hell insanity Trump will unleash. Either way we are really lacking that decisive US leadership that we have grown a little too dependant on. 

Can only hope the elections so far this year have set a trend...

I am arguing the status quo by saying vehicles need to change and that drone based interceptors are likely going to be the major aspect of defending against drone munitions going forward? Sure. Okay. Pointing out that tanks have a role, or that perhaps such extreme changes might not be so predictable due to potential counters is not my saying everything is fine carry on. Please understand that just once, I have tried to make it clear several times. Stop acting like I am some deep rooted conservative who thinks that drones are a temporary fad. 
 
Then you need to either stop debating with me or figure out how not to so frustrated from a differing opinion, because being so rudely treated is not why I am here. If I want to argue with people I will go on twitter and fight the genuinely brainless. Just because I have a different opinion that is still broadly supportive of the idea that war is and will change should not be getting you and others so wound up. I came here to debate with reasonable people, not be told to shut up and that my argument actually sucks. Its not a good way to change peoples minds. I dont pretend to be some sage who predicts everything, but neither do I expect to be treated as if I am incapable of thinking properly. 
 
I think I will just agree to disagree here. This is a wildly speculative scenario in the first place and its literally pointless to argue it when we can just make up any potential solution. I could point out how you rarely see infantry in and around armoured vics (Unless they are riding on them) or are caught dismounting in Ukraine, so the assumption that a PD system would be ineffective just because of friendly fire risk seems unlikely, at least to me. 

Because as I keep saying, complicating a kill chain as much as possible is so much better than relying on one means of interception, especially when dealing with such a potentially versatile threat. PD that can serve as an RWS in most situations but is optimised for drone munition intercept as a last resort without compromising on the vehicle role seems sensible here and very much worth the money. If it reduces vehicle losses by a certain metric then its absolutely worth it, because no matter what we say about the tank, vehicles in general are not going to disappear overnight. 
 
Could you be so kind as to specify what fully autonomous lethal system you are talking about here, the only thing I can think of is the AI on some FPV drones that allow a terminal approach which is not exactly a standardised thing yet, nor is it fully autonomous. the only thing I could find was potentially Turkish Kargu-2 being used in 2020 in fully autonomous mode. (Not in Ukraine)
 
I have literally given you numerous articles to potential ideas and solutions, so to say there is 'nothing' on hand is just a bald faced lie. The same swarm drone company making offensive drones has literally been tasked to make counter drones as well. 

I'm not sure why the link is not working https://battle-updates.com/small-calibre-solutions-for-c-uas-systems-by-julian-nettlefold/ But this covers the wide range of different RWS systems that are actively signing contracts to do with Ukraine and are all meant for counter UAS. So please stop telling me there is no other solution or that point defence / gun counter UAS stuff is fantasy when that is literally a lie.
 
Just as there are significant problems with actually designing practical fully autonomous systems. Could you actually provide a source that shows how close these swarm drones are to practical deployment? Because a lot of what I read seems a little whishy washy on the subject. Have they been featured in any major NATO exercise?
 
Concluding confidently that there is ' no counter' two years into a war that is probably going to last a fair bit longer seems foolishly premature, especially when there are active potential counters in the works. Gun based and otherwise. The only legitimate conclusion is that CURRENT systems are clearly not going to cut it against drone munitions at scale and there needs to be evolution to counter systems....which is exactly what is happening. Its pure arrogance and conjecture to declare something is a dead end before widespread practical solutions are not even being used at scale yet.