Billy Ringo

It's probably more dangerous to Russia,  as a threshold.  If there's one thing capitalist democracies do not tolerate,  it's other people ****ing with the flow of money. 

Barbecue time. Location yet unspecified. Somewhere between Dnepr and Molochna river north of Melitopol.
 
 

Tom Coopers thoughts from the ACIG forum 
“Frontlines... Orikhiv sector... Ukrainian reports are indicating a break-through of the first line of defences in the Lobkove area, sometimes around 7-8 June, with an advance on Zherebyanky as a consequence. This in turn should have collapsed the Russian defence line further south-east, and enabled an advance south-west and south-east of Dolynka, all the way to Peremozhne (about 15km in total, on a frontline some 15km wide). With this, Ukrainians should be something like 'half-way through the 2nd line of defence'. South of Orikhiv, Ukrainians should be somewhere between Stepove, Rivne, and Chystopilia, west of Solodka Balka and about 15km outside Tokmak: i.e. through the 2nd line of defence. 

Further east, i.e. south of Hulyaipole: the aim there seems to be to outflank the Russian defences of Polohy on both sides, but so far, the advance remained limited in comparison to that in the Orikhiv area. Essentially, Ukrainians are still busy clearing lanes through the minefields and approaching Robotine: even if they have reached the southern edge of deep minefields protecting the first line of the Russian defences in several directions, they are yet to start manoeuvring freely. 

South, east and south-east of Velyka Novosilka...the western prong of this advance seems to have been checked by the Russians after it reached the hills dominating Staromaiorske. However, yesterday, the eastern - and much belittled - attack drove all the way from Oktyabrska and Novomaiorske to Krasna Polana, in southern direction, while developing in a new, western direction, too: on Staromaiorsk. That in turn forced the surviving Russians to abandon - in panic - their positions in Neskuchne, Storozheve and Blahodatne - and that without a single shot: they fled in south-western direction, into Starmoaiorske. Moreover, if the report on advance to Krasna Polana is truth: that's about 50% of the way to Mariupol. 

(I.e. here we have a similar situation like in the II Nagorny Karabakh War, when Armenians were reporting they're 'breaking Azeri bones', while the Azeris were already deep into their southern flank... but this wasn't reported by any of social-media-mappers, because there were 'no videos'....)

Further east, the Russians were defending well in the area south-west of Vuhledar, but it is possible that the Ukrainian advance further east - via Volodymyrivka to Blahodatne - has meanwhile forced them to withdraw. Here, Ukrainians are meanwhile outside the minefields and manoeuvring freely. What is certain is that there is - or at elast was - a very bitter battle for Blahodatne going on: that's some 5km north of Volnovakha, which is the crucial place in this part of Ukraine (on the highway from Donetsk to Mariupol). On 9 June, the Russians deployed reserves from Donetsk for a counterattack into the eastern flank of this advance (that's what caused the fighting for Blahodatne); however, yesterday, they seem to have changed their decision and withdrew/re-deployed the troops in question further south, into their third line of defence, between Volnovakha and Mariupol. 

Overall, several penetrations of 15-25km, but the Russians are still holding out wherever they can: i.e. the ZSU is still not 'through' the worst of this. Moreover, the VSRF is 'streaming' really a lots of reinforcements into southern Zaporizhzhya. What is also not mentioned (in general) that - no matter how much criticised (foremost by such like me) - the ZSU troops are outmatching the Russians, in training, manoeuvre, firepower, and precision. Thus, every of their attacks is causing massive Russian losses, even if sometimes costly (at least in vehicles) for the ZSU.”
 
 

I remember seeing one and it ended up being questionable, but I'm sure it has happened.  Got a link to any of those?

Don't mistake what Simonyan is doing. She is as plugged in as it is possible to be with Putin's circle and clearly that circle has decided that with the offensive that's starting and the resources Russia has to stop it a status quo result would be a pretty good outcome for Russia. Her job is to make that outcome seem reasonable in the domestic Russian propaganda space. Thus, the trial balloon.

If western equipment keeps them alive vs soviet equipment, its done its job. 
 
 

I used to be able to see those waves, but I stopped dosing when I was no longer going to Dead shows. 

Greetings everyone. Long-time lurker who has been reading this thread since 23rd Feb of 2022 and now wants to step out of the shadows to thank everyone who has contributed. It has been a fascinating and informative experience to read through it all day by day, despite the tragedy which has brought everyone in this thread together.
I will likely spend the vast majority of my time continuing to lurk, since I do not have the military knowledge to give valuable commentary on most relevant things, but in this first post, I wanted to provide a short summary of an article from the Berlin branch office of a Swiss newspaper which is about planned changes to NATO structure. While it is not directly about the situation of Ukraine, the planned changes described therein seem to be a direct result of the (renewed) invasion of '22 and thus I think it still fits to the topic.
Google translate has not worked for me on this website, maybe it does for someone else who wants to read it in its entirely:
https://www.nzz.ch/international/neue-nato-struktur-deutschland-macht-wieder-grosse-ankuendigungen-ld.1740692 
Here is the summary:
General Christopher Cavoli and a small team has been working on a plans to reorganize the structure of NATO for about a year and these plans will be presented at the next meeting of NATO head of states in Vilnius on 11th and 12th of July Newspaper claims as sources 1) a team member who is involved in the planning and 2) a high-ranking ex officer who claimed to be familiar with the work Germany will have to prepapre to become a more important administrative and logistical hub for NATO NATO is aware of how the Russian attack on Ukraine has turned the world upside down, and in Brussels and Mons, Cold War terminolgy and plans are being pulled out of dusty folders  Below the Mons HQ and the 3 regional operative HQs of Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk, two new army staff commands will be created, called "Army North" and "Army South". Army North will be located at the American base in Wiesbaden, Army South in Izmir. Both Army North and Army South will be responsible to coordinate NATO troops organised as corps, divisions, brigades and battalions the reorgnisation and expansion of staff is the result of both the Russian invasion and of newly acquired members in Eastern Europe which have to be more integrated (and also pay heed to the fact that e.g. Poland has now 4 full army divisions and thus is a larger contributor than e.g. Germany) new defensive plans for the three regional HQs Brunssum, Napoli and Norfolk  Americans want the new Army North and Army south command staff to become operable as soon as possible, which is one reason why they will be staffed to a large part by American officers from their Europe and Africa commands, since no other member state has the same number of available trained staff officers. This is also why an alternative suggestion to build up and place the two command HQs in Poland and Romania was rejected Cavoli's plans indicate that there will be 9 to 12 new army corps in Europe which will be fully staffed - a lot of the existing army corps from the Cold War still exist but only on paper, without any bodies so far it is planned a corps will contain 2 to 3 divisions with a strength of ca. 20.000 each the total numerical strength is not yet decided, but the number of quickly available troops will be increased from currently 40.000 to 300.000 ("New Force Model") NATO "Joint Support and Enabling Command" in Ulm, Germany will receive a significant increase in staff and will be responsible for overseeing the supply via ports, railway and air transport which will be routed mostly through Germany  the plans expect that half of the "New Force Model" troops will come from North America, the other half from European member states Europe is woefully behind in terms of ground-based air defense, especially against ballistic missiles and drones, and a new program is supposed to increase the number of European AD  German government continues to promise that it will provide 17.000 troops forthe  "Allied Reaction Force" which is supposed to form a strategic reserve with enough ammo for 30 days of operation, but German MoD will have to be honest in Vilnius if they can actually keep this promise.  Germany also promised to provide at least 30.000 troops which can be quickly relocated, but it is not yet decided which readiness level the troops will have - either 10 days, 30 days or 100 days German troops require improved communication equipment to integrate with NATO, and new digital radio are supposed to arrive until end of 2024 - another topic German MoD is expected to provide an honest outlook about at Vilnius If anyone sees any error, please inform. I find these kinds of planned changed to NATO very interesting due to the wider implications for the Ukraine conflict but also the global security order. If this article toook me for a fool and none of this is realistic, I apologise. As I said, I lack modern military knowledge. 
 

Let's ditch the talk about the American political process, please?

More infighting within the Russian military sphere.   How can the Russian MOD, Wagner, the Chechens, multiple PMCs, DPR, LPR, etc. co-ordinate actions, logistics and seamlessly work together as the Ukrainians increase pressure with their upcoming offensive?
Who will stand and who will fold?  Who gets ammo when it's running short?  This just seems to be a sh!tshow waiting to happen.
 

More infighting within the Russian military sphere.   How can the Russian MOD, Wagner, the Chechens, multiple PMCs, DPR, LPR, etc. co-ordinate actions, logistics and seamlessly work together as the Ukrainians increase pressure with their upcoming offensive?
Who will stand and who will fold?  Who gets ammo when it's running short?  This just seems to be a sh!tshow waiting to happen.
 

Now it appears that it was 5 drones, not 20+ drones.  Armed with little explosives and, possibly, designed to not even detonate.  It was symbolic, not destructive.  But yet, here we are debating war crimes.   A lot of "what-about" comparatives to exponentially different levels of destruction and intent.   Trying to link Ukrainian actions to horrific events of the past--and it's quite possible this debate is nothing more than intentional Russian psy-ops to discredit Ukrainians and deflect from Russia's own behavior.
Let's put this in perspective.  5 light-weight possibly armed drones flying around a neighborhood of Moscow oligarchs versus  Russia's intentional and repeated bombing of civilian infrastructure with heavy duty weapons for 14 months.   There is no comparison.
Just my opinion, but how about we postpone this debate until if/when Ukraine actually starts intentionally bombing civilians? Until then, I think it's nothing more than Russian psy-ops.
 

Now it appears that it was 5 drones, not 20+ drones.  Armed with little explosives and, possibly, designed to not even detonate.  It was symbolic, not destructive.  But yet, here we are debating war crimes.   A lot of "what-about" comparatives to exponentially different levels of destruction and intent.   Trying to link Ukrainian actions to horrific events of the past--and it's quite possible this debate is nothing more than intentional Russian psy-ops to discredit Ukrainians and deflect from Russia's own behavior.
Let's put this in perspective.  5 light-weight possibly armed drones flying around a neighborhood of Moscow oligarchs versus  Russia's intentional and repeated bombing of civilian infrastructure with heavy duty weapons for 14 months.   There is no comparison.
Just my opinion, but how about we postpone this debate until if/when Ukraine actually starts intentionally bombing civilians? Until then, I think it's nothing more than Russian psy-ops.
 

In 2018, the NRA admitted that it had received contributions from 23 Russians or Americans living in Russia since 2015, amounting to just over $2,500 in "routine payments" such as membership fees or magazine subscriptions. The NRA later said that it had received more money from two Russian nationals previously disclosed, including Alexander Torshin, a Russian banker, with links to the Kremlin. [ed. note: Torshin bought a lifetime membership - $1,500)
At the time, Torshin was under an FBI investigation into whether any Russian money was funneled through the NRA to help Donald Trump in the 2016 election. The NRA has denied that money they gave towards Trump's campaign came from Russia.
The FEC general counsel's office concluded in 2018 that there was "insufficient" evidence to state that Russian money was illegally funneled through the NRA to influence the presidential campaign.
 
These smears actually work better with less details, lets the imagination run.

Now it appears that it was 5 drones, not 20+ drones.  Armed with little explosives and, possibly, designed to not even detonate.  It was symbolic, not destructive.  But yet, here we are debating war crimes.   A lot of "what-about" comparatives to exponentially different levels of destruction and intent.   Trying to link Ukrainian actions to horrific events of the past--and it's quite possible this debate is nothing more than intentional Russian psy-ops to discredit Ukrainians and deflect from Russia's own behavior.
Let's put this in perspective.  5 light-weight possibly armed drones flying around a neighborhood of Moscow oligarchs versus  Russia's intentional and repeated bombing of civilian infrastructure with heavy duty weapons for 14 months.   There is no comparison.
Just my opinion, but how about we postpone this debate until if/when Ukraine actually starts intentionally bombing civilians? Until then, I think it's nothing more than Russian psy-ops.
 

Graham is a weasel but he's also not an idiot. He spent over 30 years in the Air Force and Air Force Reserves and was on the Armed Forces Committee from 2003 to 2019. He's always been a foreign policy hawk and I think Zelensky probably told him the truth about their upcoming offensive.

Now it appears that it was 5 drones, not 20+ drones.  Armed with little explosives and, possibly, designed to not even detonate.  It was symbolic, not destructive.  But yet, here we are debating war crimes.   A lot of "what-about" comparatives to exponentially different levels of destruction and intent.   Trying to link Ukrainian actions to horrific events of the past--and it's quite possible this debate is nothing more than intentional Russian psy-ops to discredit Ukrainians and deflect from Russia's own behavior.
Let's put this in perspective.  5 light-weight possibly armed drones flying around a neighborhood of Moscow oligarchs versus  Russia's intentional and repeated bombing of civilian infrastructure with heavy duty weapons for 14 months.   There is no comparison.
Just my opinion, but how about we postpone this debate until if/when Ukraine actually starts intentionally bombing civilians? Until then, I think it's nothing more than Russian psy-ops.
 

Now it appears that it was 5 drones, not 20+ drones.  Armed with little explosives and, possibly, designed to not even detonate.  It was symbolic, not destructive.  But yet, here we are debating war crimes.   A lot of "what-about" comparatives to exponentially different levels of destruction and intent.   Trying to link Ukrainian actions to horrific events of the past--and it's quite possible this debate is nothing more than intentional Russian psy-ops to discredit Ukrainians and deflect from Russia's own behavior.
Let's put this in perspective.  5 light-weight possibly armed drones flying around a neighborhood of Moscow oligarchs versus  Russia's intentional and repeated bombing of civilian infrastructure with heavy duty weapons for 14 months.   There is no comparison.
Just my opinion, but how about we postpone this debate until if/when Ukraine actually starts intentionally bombing civilians? Until then, I think it's nothing more than Russian psy-ops.
 

Now it appears that it was 5 drones, not 20+ drones.  Armed with little explosives and, possibly, designed to not even detonate.  It was symbolic, not destructive.  But yet, here we are debating war crimes.   A lot of "what-about" comparatives to exponentially different levels of destruction and intent.   Trying to link Ukrainian actions to horrific events of the past--and it's quite possible this debate is nothing more than intentional Russian psy-ops to discredit Ukrainians and deflect from Russia's own behavior.
Let's put this in perspective.  5 light-weight possibly armed drones flying around a neighborhood of Moscow oligarchs versus  Russia's intentional and repeated bombing of civilian infrastructure with heavy duty weapons for 14 months.   There is no comparison.
Just my opinion, but how about we postpone this debate until if/when Ukraine actually starts intentionally bombing civilians? Until then, I think it's nothing more than Russian psy-ops.
 

Now it appears that it was 5 drones, not 20+ drones.  Armed with little explosives and, possibly, designed to not even detonate.  It was symbolic, not destructive.  But yet, here we are debating war crimes.   A lot of "what-about" comparatives to exponentially different levels of destruction and intent.   Trying to link Ukrainian actions to horrific events of the past--and it's quite possible this debate is nothing more than intentional Russian psy-ops to discredit Ukrainians and deflect from Russia's own behavior.
Let's put this in perspective.  5 light-weight possibly armed drones flying around a neighborhood of Moscow oligarchs versus  Russia's intentional and repeated bombing of civilian infrastructure with heavy duty weapons for 14 months.   There is no comparison.
Just my opinion, but how about we postpone this debate until if/when Ukraine actually starts intentionally bombing civilians? Until then, I think it's nothing more than Russian psy-ops.
 

Now it appears that it was 5 drones, not 20+ drones.  Armed with little explosives and, possibly, designed to not even detonate.  It was symbolic, not destructive.  But yet, here we are debating war crimes.   A lot of "what-about" comparatives to exponentially different levels of destruction and intent.   Trying to link Ukrainian actions to horrific events of the past--and it's quite possible this debate is nothing more than intentional Russian psy-ops to discredit Ukrainians and deflect from Russia's own behavior.
Let's put this in perspective.  5 light-weight possibly armed drones flying around a neighborhood of Moscow oligarchs versus  Russia's intentional and repeated bombing of civilian infrastructure with heavy duty weapons for 14 months.   There is no comparison.
Just my opinion, but how about we postpone this debate until if/when Ukraine actually starts intentionally bombing civilians? Until then, I think it's nothing more than Russian psy-ops.
 

Oh yes, we must not anger the Russians so they don't seek to take over all of Ukraine and impose a friendly government, or annex occupied territories and cleanse them to ensure they remain forever Russian, or seek to turn Ukraine into a land locked impoverished state, or bomb out the economic and social potential of the country via infrastructure and medical facility attacks, or mass raze town and city along the front lines, or etc.
There's a reason why Western attitudes towards Russia hardened after mobilization, cause domestically the regime has only grown stronger. No one is launching a coup against Putin. 

F-16s in many ways are political, but one of the ways they are political is telling the Russians that we aren't quitting, ever. That they can leave now, or when their army is so broken Kazakistan can credibly threaten to invade. The fact F-16s would just let the Ukrainian air force keep flying isn't trivial either. They have pretty much sucked in every left over Soviet plane and part on the world market, they take wear and at least some damage every day. 
It is also worth pointing out that Patriots were not supposed be able to stop Kinzahls, and they are currently batting 1000. It is possible, not guaranteed but possible, that there will be a large upside surprise when the F-16s become active. A great deal depends on what munitions we send.