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Beleg85

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  1. Like
    Beleg85 reacted to Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    No, it doesn’t.  Do you still think thousands of Czech people at this demonstration supports your claim that “Pro-Russian sentiments here are no less strong than in Hungary or Slovakia”, though?
    The answer is no, it doesn’t, and in fact the article you linked to specifically mentions that the party who organised the demonstration have zero parliamentary representation. That suggests that their position specifically isn’t representative of most Czech citizens.
    We also have Letters from Prague telling us, as a Czech person himself, that this pro-Russian position is not widely popular in a Czechia.  Of course, in isolation, his contribution is only anecdotal but do you see how your link actually supports his assertion more than it does your own?
  2. Like
    Beleg85 reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Might it be productive for Ukraine to push another Marine battalion over the Dnpr, perhaps below Oleshki? Sounds like the Ukies don't have manpower to do much more right now, but even that might put another huge strain on the Russians at the far end of their line. It would certainly force an urgent response.
    Mind you, they've likely mined the hell out of the entire river bank area, after Krynki. Some folks have posted about drone-AI remote detection/flagging/demining solutions but no idea whether that's still in the vapourware stage. 
    Part of this Russian activity up on their northern front could be that their supply lines here are as short as Ukraine's, for once. Economy of effort to go with their 1930s New Model Army. Where are the horses?
    EDIT:  I remain convinced Ukraine absolutely must retake Kinburn spit, at a minimum, to help shield their Black Sea coast from, among other things, Russian naval drones (they, or rather the Chinese, have no doubt already copied the Sea Babies etc.).  Especially if He Who Shall Not Be Named pushes a ceasefire in place.
  3. Like
    Beleg85 reacted to Maciej Zwolinski in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    One reason could be if they were unable to provide support which cannot be substituted. Examples: 155 mm artillery ammunition and Patriot SAM missiles. Apparently Europe can manufacture more artillery shells than the USA but somehow it was sending to Ukraine much smaller numbers - which is evident because the absence of US support in the past 6 months soon caused a shell hunger. The Europeans could not close the gap. Assuming that the US withdraws support in January 2025 again, will European countries be able to deliver their own shells in the Americans' place in sufficient numbers?  I have no idea. The Czech deal is 152 mm ammunition scrounged from some secret place, Shangri-La or whatever. But re. delivering shells from actual domestic European production of 155 mm shells, something has been holding them up.Will that problem be overcome in the next 6 months? Again, no idea.
    Re. Patriots. There does not seem to be anything comparable, S-300s ammunition is running out or has ran out, German and French systems have shorter range and will not provide equivalent coverage. F-16s or no F-16s, the  Ukrainians will not gain air superiority so they need their S-300 replacement. Can European countries get Patriots for the Ukraine somehow?
    In the case of unsolvable shell hunger problem and Russians gaining the ability to bomb the entire Ukraine with reasonable impunity I can well see the European nations deciding the war is lost and good money should not be thrown after the bad.
    Other than the arty shells and SAMs - which, as I described above, I think could be decisive factors - I am also wondering about the access to the US reconaissance and intelligence assets, in particular to satellites and signals intelligence. If the new president orders the heads of the CIA and the NSA to stop data sharing and all cooperation with the UKR immediately, can e.g. the UK take the same data via their NATO arrangements  and subsequently re-transfer it to the Ukraine? If not and the Ukraine actually loses access to the information it used to receive this could potentially be decisive.
  4. Upvote
    Beleg85 got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  5. Upvote
    Beleg85 got a reaction from Sojourner in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  6. Like
    Beleg85 got a reaction from pugstorm in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  7. Upvote
    Beleg85 got a reaction from Livdoc44 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  8. Upvote
    Beleg85 got a reaction from OldSarge in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    One of Republicans supporting UA talked to Ukranian soldiers that logistical lines are ready and prepared for new arrivals and some stuff may be packed already.
    Also one guy working here on spedition/ transport movement in Eastern part of the country sold me a gossip (not confirmed, naturally) that they had some serious changes in some schedules of arrivals to and from Rzeszów airport planned already several weeks ago. So perhaps we may expect some new goodies sent soon.
  9. Like
    Beleg85 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Mixed feelings. Congress version is stronger than Senate one (ATACAMS + Russian actives). But... How much thousands lives have gone, what economical damage was done, how much our lands were occupied until both political forces have been conducting own dirty pre-election games during these five-six months. All this could have been avoided if Senate agreed to continue lend-lease law. 
  10. Like
    Beleg85 reacted to Ultradave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It's unfortunately true. Not that these and the others she introduced will go anywhere, but she DID introduce them and proudly lists them on her X feed.  Others introduced diverted 100% of aid for 2 bills each to Lahaina, Oahu, and East Palestine, Ohio. 
    Dave
  11. Like
    Beleg85 got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sweet bloody Jesus if true (if not, it's good at least to laugh through tears). But seriously, perhaps this aid will indeed come soon, crazies in US politics are getting even more crazy lately. Maybe it's good sign, you know- like fever or diarrhea under certain conditions?
  12. Upvote
    Beleg85 got a reaction from panzermartin in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Heard about this tactics before, but don't recall the clips from it:
    This war provides never-ending stream of challanges as how to siumlate it for potentiall future Combat Mission games.
  13. Like
    Beleg85 got a reaction from acrashb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Heard about this tactics before, but don't recall the clips from it:
    This war provides never-ending stream of challanges as how to siumlate it for potentiall future Combat Mission games.
  14. Upvote
    Beleg85 got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Heard about this tactics before, but don't recall the clips from it:
    This war provides never-ending stream of challanges as how to siumlate it for potentiall future Combat Mission games.
  15. Like
    Beleg85 reacted to kimbosbread in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What the extreme fringes do and say affects regular people, at least in rich coastal cities. It’s certainly not just idiots screaming at each other online. One ridiculous example of this is hosptials at least where I am no longer can say “mother”, but have to use the word “birthing person”. Remember the Stanford guide for acceptable words? It does bleed into our lives. More practically, at my previous employer, a major software company, anything but the most progressive political stance was unacceptable to voice- and that stance was voiced quite a bit- much to the befuddlement of all the foreign employees. This is not atypical at large, well-paying software companies.
     
  16. Like
    Beleg85 reacted to Vet 0369 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sorry my friend, but it was the CSS Virginia that fought the USS Monitor. It can be very confusing to those who haven’t studied the American Civil War (including most Americans) but it is very understandable because of how the battle has been recounted since the day it occurred.  The Merrimack was a U.S. Navy ship that was burned by the Confederacy at the start of the war. It burned to the waterline. The Confederates raised the hull of the ship, and rebuilt it from the hull up. They then Commissioned the ship the “CSS Virginia.” To this day, I hear U.S. Historians refer to “the battle between the Monitor and the Merrimack,” and they are wrong. 
     
    your comparison was dead on though!
  17. Upvote
    Beleg85 got a reaction from Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Example of caltrps dropped on road from drone near Krynki:
     
  18. Like
    Beleg85 got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Crocus saga and very accurate comic. How, tell how one cannot think in stereotypes about Russian state apparatus :
    Still worth to note he wrote "tsar" twice not by capital letters; he is getting out of from. Also, I think it is more "Dove Book" in English, but Pigeon sounds nicer.
  19. Like
    Beleg85 got a reaction from paxromana in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This little CSS Merrimack will only need to find its USS Monitor now...
    Ad vocem this entire "China is learning our tools of trade debate" and WWII analogies, worth to note one additional factor- did anyone heard about foreign observers in Russia in this war? North Korean? Iranian? Chinese? I read in one Russian newspaper in this war about some Iranian group, but they seem to be technicians manning the drones. It is possible similar groups are operating from North Korea, behind the frontlines, but nothing official.
    If anyone seriously think about throwing gauntlet against US world order and learn in UA, one would need serious military mission collecting data, attached to military of "friendly" side, either in form of observers or even "advisors" like in Cold War- and this is much more than normal military attachee in embassy sending analysis to Central. I have little doubts such missions in UA exists from several Western states, but so far we didn't notice any constant presence of official advisors on Russian side. They could be there, naturally, and we simply don't see them...though it is improbable NATO intelligence wouldn't know about them either.
    Even if they exist and are good as hell in analysing this war, it dosn't automatically mean such knowledge would be used  by military of beforementioned third country. Technicialities, like qualities of some more advanced missile or AFV armours- perhaps (though it doesn't seem we gave UAF anything particulary fanciful). But rest? To use practical knowledge and implement it, like coordination in CC nets on battlefield, operation procedures etc. is not an easy task even for largely coup-proof militaries like Chinese Army.
    If people use analogies with this war to Civil War in Spain- where is Legion Condor and similar units? Thousands of advisors on both sides? None state can seriously draw conclusions as to future war and remodel its military only by watching Youtube videos.
  20. Upvote
    Beleg85 got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This little CSS Merrimack will only need to find its USS Monitor now...
    Ad vocem this entire "China is learning our tools of trade debate" and WWII analogies, worth to note one additional factor- did anyone heard about foreign observers in Russia in this war? North Korean? Iranian? Chinese? I read in one Russian newspaper in this war about some Iranian group, but they seem to be technicians manning the drones. It is possible similar groups are operating from North Korea, behind the frontlines, but nothing official.
    If anyone seriously think about throwing gauntlet against US world order and learn in UA, one would need serious military mission collecting data, attached to military of "friendly" side, either in form of observers or even "advisors" like in Cold War- and this is much more than normal military attachee in embassy sending analysis to Central. I have little doubts such missions in UA exists from several Western states, but so far we didn't notice any constant presence of official advisors on Russian side. They could be there, naturally, and we simply don't see them...though it is improbable NATO intelligence wouldn't know about them either.
    Even if they exist and are good as hell in analysing this war, it dosn't automatically mean such knowledge would be used  by military of beforementioned third country. Technicialities, like qualities of some more advanced missile or AFV armours- perhaps (though it doesn't seem we gave UAF anything particulary fanciful). But rest? To use practical knowledge and implement it, like coordination in CC nets on battlefield, operation procedures etc. is not an easy task even for largely coup-proof militaries like Chinese Army.
    If people use analogies with this war to Civil War in Spain- where is Legion Condor and similar units? Thousands of advisors on both sides? None state can seriously draw conclusions as to future war and remodel its military only by watching Youtube videos.
  21. Upvote
    Beleg85 got a reaction from Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This little CSS Merrimack will only need to find its USS Monitor now...
    Ad vocem this entire "China is learning our tools of trade debate" and WWII analogies, worth to note one additional factor- did anyone heard about foreign observers in Russia in this war? North Korean? Iranian? Chinese? I read in one Russian newspaper in this war about some Iranian group, but they seem to be technicians manning the drones. It is possible similar groups are operating from North Korea, behind the frontlines, but nothing official.
    If anyone seriously think about throwing gauntlet against US world order and learn in UA, one would need serious military mission collecting data, attached to military of "friendly" side, either in form of observers or even "advisors" like in Cold War- and this is much more than normal military attachee in embassy sending analysis to Central. I have little doubts such missions in UA exists from several Western states, but so far we didn't notice any constant presence of official advisors on Russian side. They could be there, naturally, and we simply don't see them...though it is improbable NATO intelligence wouldn't know about them either.
    Even if they exist and are good as hell in analysing this war, it dosn't automatically mean such knowledge would be used  by military of beforementioned third country. Technicialities, like qualities of some more advanced missile or AFV armours- perhaps (though it doesn't seem we gave UAF anything particulary fanciful). But rest? To use practical knowledge and implement it, like coordination in CC nets on battlefield, operation procedures etc. is not an easy task even for largely coup-proof militaries like Chinese Army.
    If people use analogies with this war to Civil War in Spain- where is Legion Condor and similar units? Thousands of advisors on both sides? None state can seriously draw conclusions as to future war and remodel its military only by watching Youtube videos.
  22. Like
    Beleg85 got a reaction from Fernando in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Crocus saga and very accurate comic. How, tell how one cannot think in stereotypes about Russian state apparatus :
    Still worth to note he wrote "tsar" twice not by capital letters; he is getting out of from. Also, I think it is more "Dove Book" in English, but Pigeon sounds nicer.
  23. Like
    Beleg85 reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russian ideologist Dugin under heavy mushrooms..

    Russian city is a mother of all cities. Jerusalem will be Russian or it will not exist at all. And his majesty Kitavras will rule there. That what it says secret Pigeon's Book. The Book of depth. Russian tsar is a tsar for all tsars. 
    Kitavras is a mythical creature (derived from "centaur"), which appeared in Moscovian apocryphal tales of 14-15th century about Solomon king. Pigeon's Book known since 15th century, there is tough mix of early Christian apocryphical texts cosmologia, influenced by Moscovites folk mythes and some paganism elements. This book was revered in some Orthodox groups. The book claims that "White Tsar" (white not so in modern sense, but as "true, orthodox, Russian" as countray to "pagan, tatars, mongols tsars") is a tsar over tsars and "Holy Rus' " is a mother of all lands.  
  24. Like
    Beleg85 got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Looks more like Gypsy King.
    Very interesting occurence anyway. Similar armoured charges from Chasiv Yar are also quite impressive... they are reminescent of Vuhledar.
     
    Meanwhile, another country is slipping slowly off Russin hands:
    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-launch-new-e270-million-plan-bring-armenia-fold-russia/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=Twitter
  25. Like
    Beleg85 got a reaction from CAZmaj in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Looks more like Gypsy King.
    Very interesting occurence anyway. Similar armoured charges from Chasiv Yar are also quite impressive... they are reminescent of Vuhledar.
     
    Meanwhile, another country is slipping slowly off Russin hands:
    https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-launch-new-e270-million-plan-bring-armenia-fold-russia/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=Twitter
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