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SteelRain

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  1. Like
    SteelRain reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    wonder if this causes anxiety for the trolls?
  2. Upvote
    SteelRain reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The longer I watch this war the more I wonder if it isn’t a microcosm of how the Cold War would have gone down if it had gone hot in the mid 80s.  NATO had invested in C4ISR, precision and technology.  Russia in mass.  Air superiority would have been in doubt and perhaps resulted in mutual denial.  
    Assuming the whole thing stayed conventional we could have seen extensive initial Soviet advances but they would have been strung out and logistics lines were stretched and exposed.  Deep Battle would have kicked in and the Soviets would have found themselves over extended.  They may have then buckled and fell back to NATO counter attack until they could assemble massive defensive positions (minefields etc).
    The whole thing may have resulted in incremental Soviet gains at insane costs.  Or right back to the start lines after tens of thousand dead and wounded.  West would have gone back to containment and squeezing while the Soviets buckled under the weight of trying to pay for it all.
    Of course a whole lot could have happened differently given scope and scale differences but I can’t shake the feeling that there are similarities.
  3. Like
    SteelRain reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    let it go, just not worth it.  Clearly he doesn't comprehend what climate change really means.  You can't argue with someone that takes pride in their ignorance.... and it is just going waaaaaayyyyy off topic
  4. Like
    SteelRain reacted to Offshoot in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This was in Amsterdam and referencing Israel and Gaza. What has it got to do with Ukraine? Given your wording, it sounds like you are just trying to shoehorn a personal bugbear.
  5. Upvote
    SteelRain reacted to akd in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Okay, things are really getting out of hand now…
     
  6. Upvote
    SteelRain got a reaction from Aragorn2002 in Israel War Thread   
    I'm a bit puzzled by the scale of the attack and can't believe that in this day and age preparations for such action were not noticed by Israels intelligence services.
  7. Like
    SteelRain got a reaction from danfrodo in Israel War Thread   
    In my small, little, perfect world that is what i would hope for. A factual and objective investigation after the dust has settled but i am convinced that this attack will brush away the opposition to Netanyahu and the 2023 judicial reform. 
  8. Upvote
    SteelRain reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Infomative. 
     
     
  9. Upvote
    SteelRain reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    So first of all, if you are turning to Lindsey Graham for foreign policy advice, you may want to check outside and ensure that the sky in in the right location.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2018/10/lindsey-grahams-foreign-policy-advice-donald-trump/572089/
    But that is just me.  
    Of course we want Russia to get back in the box.  Hell we want them back in the G7 and selling all that cheap gas.  We want the global order back because it was a lot more peaceful and profitable than whatever this is turning into.  We want Putin and enough of his ilk gone, but apparently your position is that we are in this in order to exterminate your "eternal enemy".  Ukraine is not a "weapon in our hands," it is a nation who we are desperately trying to keep above water.  The strategy you are proposing is so bafflingly short-sighted that is borders on self-destructive.  So how many Russians are enough?  What happens if Ukraine doesn't kill enough Russians to satisfy our bloodlust?  Of course when you are done killing Russians we will simply walk away and leave you in the ruins, because all we care about are dead Russians and not the reconstruction of Ukraine.
    There is an element of proxy war to this conflict, but it is not one we wanted.  If the objective were to destroy Russia, then we would drag this thing out for decades - that is the argument coming out of the US far right, btw, "this is a forever war where we fight til the last Ukrainian...we should get out now!"  MacGregor pretty much has been saying this from Day 1.  So all talks of "Dead Russians as Strategic Objective" and "Economic Interests - War for Cash" and "Ukraine is a Handgun", you can leave in the far right loonie bins where they belong. 
    Finally, if you are telling me that Canada, under a liberal government, is spending over 2 billion, coming up on 10 percent of our annual defence spending, in the defence of your nation because "killing Russians" is our sole national interest, then I think this conversation is pretty much over. 
  10. Upvote
    SteelRain reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If that were true then why is my country spending an order of magnitude more on support than it ever saw in trade?
    https://www.international.gc.ca/country-pays/ukraine/relations.aspx?lang=eng#
    https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/campaigns/canadian-military-support-to-ukraine.html#
    By your paradigm there is no stark national interest for Canada to spend billions in supporting your country.  Sure Russia is doing dirty but it is a country that we historically do much more trade with than Ukraine: https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports/canada
    https://tradingeconomics.com/ukraine/exports/canada
    We live under the security umbrella of the US and are 9 timezones away.  Beyond diaspora - and last we recognized that relationship it did not work out so well (https://www.reuters.com/world/canada-house-speaker-apologizes-recognition-veteran-who-fought-nazis-2023-09-24/)…why in the hell should we spend that much taxpayers money on Ukraine?  A non-NATO, non-EU, non-5EYES, non-G7 nation that is at war with another nation we historically did about 3-4 times more trade with?
    No, I reject your premise as it does not match the facts.  Do nations work toward interest?  Absolutely.  However, those interest are expressed as far more than money and fear - and they should be.  We are in this because we tried to build a world where nations were not permitted to do what Russia is doing right now.  Where unilateral invasions are in fact against the law.  We built that world to get and stay well,  we also built it because we actually care enough about humanity that we would prefer we don’t destroy ourselves through narrow minded greed.  There is no hard geopolitical or economic reasons for Canada to be spending this amount of money on supporting your nation in this war.  There are some incredibly powerful morale and ethical ones, and as bafflingly ignorant as a we can be at times, those things still matter.
    We got rid of AP landmines because they did more harm than good.  Not some weird “hey everyone let’s disarm Ukraine so Russian can maul them later - tee hee”.  Same definitely goes for nukes - sorry but Eastern Europe was a hot mess after the USSR fell and no junior partner still trying to figure which way was up was going to be keeping hands on strategic weapons.  Frankly Ukraine was not that important to anyone’s calculus in the 90s and 00s to put that together - you may recall we kinda had our hands full.  
    So I think we are done here.  You want to be a bitter old man dreaming reasons why “everyone screwed you” and why “we all owe you”, I can’t stop you.  But the reality is that our sin in the west was we simply did not care.  We were focused on other things while Russia kept sticking its toes over the line while getting people hooked on cheap energy.  There was no conspiracy, there was neglect.  But Ukraine was and is an independent nation that needs to own it mistakes as well - and there were many.  In the end all that added up to an embolden Russia that leaned in to far too fast…and here we are.
    We support Ukraine because we all owe it to each other to ensure that we do not fall back into dictators doing whatever they want to grab power.  We fought two of the largest wars in human history in the last century when we allowed that to happen.  It is bigger than money and geopolitics.  It is bigger than whatever grudges, bias or prejudice you bring onto this.  This is about global order and the right thing to do.
  11. Upvote
    SteelRain reacted to danfrodo in Israel War Thread   
    In the end, Israel will have more land, which they will take without much notice from the outside world.  They will have more power over the palestinians.  They will have some weeks of the ability to engage in whatever violence they want without much question.  Netanyahu will blame someone.  Frightened Israelis will become increasingly right wing, as usually happens with fear response.  So enjoy the violence binge, Hamas, and enjoy the hangover.
    Since the 90s, when the great disaster happened (Rabin assassinated by Israeli zealot), I have believed that the only weapon the palestinians could use to win was world opinion.  Militarily they are ants fighting a very large anteater.  So non-violence was what I thought would work best.  Use mass protest -- thousands laying down in from of Israeli bulldozers, hunger strikes, anything that gets on the world's news programs and generates sympathy.  That was the only way to win.  But instead the violent zealots did their idiotic pinprick attacks, year after year, accomplishing nothing except leaving their people w less and less territory and less and less sovereignty, while generating sympathy for Israel and hardening the hearts of nearly all Israelis. 
    And now this utterly brilliant move.  At a time when the world sees Israeli democracy on the edge and world opinion of Israeli govt was lowering. 
  12. Like
    SteelRain got a reaction from Richi in Israel War Thread   
    I'm a bit puzzled by the scale of the attack and can't believe that in this day and age preparations for such action were not noticed by Israels intelligence services.
  13. Upvote
    SteelRain got a reaction from dan/california in Israel War Thread   
    I'm a bit puzzled by the scale of the attack and can't believe that in this day and age preparations for such action were not noticed by Israels intelligence services.
  14. Like
    SteelRain got a reaction from danfrodo in Israel War Thread   
    I'm a bit puzzled by the scale of the attack and can't believe that in this day and age preparations for such action were not noticed by Israels intelligence services.
  15. Like
    SteelRain got a reaction from cesmonkey in Israel War Thread   
    I think the overwhelming majority participating in this discussion is not interested in superficial bull**** like the Stab-in-the-back myth. Lets focus on facts backed by evidence instead.
  16. Upvote
    SteelRain got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As far as i understand it, the problem could be caused by the armor layout and not the capability to carry more weight.
    The currently delivered Leopards have the late box type turret. It consists of an outer and inner thin steel plate with a filling of air or some kind of plastic.





    Source of the images:
    https://ndb51.wordpress.com/2019/08/12/thu-vi-xem-xe-tang-leopard-1a3-trong-tinh-trang-bi-cat-doc/

    My guess is that the outer steel plate can't withstand the energy produced by the explosion of the ERA Brick.
    The Canadians demonstrated that the Leopard 1 can handle a lot of weight by adding MEXAS NERA add-on armor kits while deployed to Kosovo and MEXAS + mine plows or dozer blades while operating in Afghanistan.
     
     
     
  17. Like
    SteelRain got a reaction from Seedorf81 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As far as i understand it, the problem could be caused by the armor layout and not the capability to carry more weight.
    The currently delivered Leopards have the late box type turret. It consists of an outer and inner thin steel plate with a filling of air or some kind of plastic.





    Source of the images:
    https://ndb51.wordpress.com/2019/08/12/thu-vi-xem-xe-tang-leopard-1a3-trong-tinh-trang-bi-cat-doc/

    My guess is that the outer steel plate can't withstand the energy produced by the explosion of the ERA Brick.
    The Canadians demonstrated that the Leopard 1 can handle a lot of weight by adding MEXAS NERA add-on armor kits while deployed to Kosovo and MEXAS + mine plows or dozer blades while operating in Afghanistan.
     
     
     
  18. Like
    SteelRain got a reaction from Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As far as i understand it, the problem could be caused by the armor layout and not the capability to carry more weight.
    The currently delivered Leopards have the late box type turret. It consists of an outer and inner thin steel plate with a filling of air or some kind of plastic.





    Source of the images:
    https://ndb51.wordpress.com/2019/08/12/thu-vi-xem-xe-tang-leopard-1a3-trong-tinh-trang-bi-cat-doc/

    My guess is that the outer steel plate can't withstand the energy produced by the explosion of the ERA Brick.
    The Canadians demonstrated that the Leopard 1 can handle a lot of weight by adding MEXAS NERA add-on armor kits while deployed to Kosovo and MEXAS + mine plows or dozer blades while operating in Afghanistan.
     
     
     
  19. Upvote
    SteelRain got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As far as i understand it, the problem could be caused by the armor layout and not the capability to carry more weight.
    The currently delivered Leopards have the late box type turret. It consists of an outer and inner thin steel plate with a filling of air or some kind of plastic.





    Source of the images:
    https://ndb51.wordpress.com/2019/08/12/thu-vi-xem-xe-tang-leopard-1a3-trong-tinh-trang-bi-cat-doc/

    My guess is that the outer steel plate can't withstand the energy produced by the explosion of the ERA Brick.
    The Canadians demonstrated that the Leopard 1 can handle a lot of weight by adding MEXAS NERA add-on armor kits while deployed to Kosovo and MEXAS + mine plows or dozer blades while operating in Afghanistan.
     
     
     
  20. Like
    SteelRain got a reaction from Seedorf81 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There is a second video form the press briefing. Sadly only auto generated subtitles are available. Made a short recap.
    - German-French brigade is currently providing most of the instructors for the training hub north with Pz.Btl. 203 providing tank specific training
    - Danish trainers had the most recent knowledge of the Leo1
    - German and Dutch trainers had to reacquire their knowledge as the Leo1 was phased out earlier than in Denmark
    - the press asked if Ukrainians would benefit from the delivery of such a old tank and Marlow repeats all the things that were discussed in this thread
    basically the Leo1a5 is a 2a4 with thin armor compared to the Russian stuff the tank is able to reverse 😀, has a thermal imager, fully stabilized main gun and better crew ergonomics.
    - until the end of May 15000 Ukrainian soldiers have been trained
    - goal to train soldiers was raised to 30000 by the end of November 2024 but Gen Marlow is sure they will hit the mark much earlier
    Looking at the AMX 10RC I'm under the impression the Ukrainians know how to employ Stug's on steroids.
     
    As @holoween and the @The_Capt said on Bundeswehr vehicles they are for camouflage reasons, mostly made of rubber or some sort of natural fiber like burlap.
  21. Upvote
    SteelRain got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There is a second video form the press briefing. Sadly only auto generated subtitles are available. Made a short recap.
    - German-French brigade is currently providing most of the instructors for the training hub north with Pz.Btl. 203 providing tank specific training
    - Danish trainers had the most recent knowledge of the Leo1
    - German and Dutch trainers had to reacquire their knowledge as the Leo1 was phased out earlier than in Denmark
    - the press asked if Ukrainians would benefit from the delivery of such a old tank and Marlow repeats all the things that were discussed in this thread
    basically the Leo1a5 is a 2a4 with thin armor compared to the Russian stuff the tank is able to reverse 😀, has a thermal imager, fully stabilized main gun and better crew ergonomics.
    - until the end of May 15000 Ukrainian soldiers have been trained
    - goal to train soldiers was raised to 30000 by the end of November 2024 but Gen Marlow is sure they will hit the mark much earlier
    Looking at the AMX 10RC I'm under the impression the Ukrainians know how to employ Stug's on steroids.
     
    As @holoween and the @The_Capt said on Bundeswehr vehicles they are for camouflage reasons, mostly made of rubber or some sort of natural fiber like burlap.
  22. Like
    SteelRain got a reaction from Sekai in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There is a second video form the press briefing. Sadly only auto generated subtitles are available. Made a short recap.
    - German-French brigade is currently providing most of the instructors for the training hub north with Pz.Btl. 203 providing tank specific training
    - Danish trainers had the most recent knowledge of the Leo1
    - German and Dutch trainers had to reacquire their knowledge as the Leo1 was phased out earlier than in Denmark
    - the press asked if Ukrainians would benefit from the delivery of such a old tank and Marlow repeats all the things that were discussed in this thread
    basically the Leo1a5 is a 2a4 with thin armor compared to the Russian stuff the tank is able to reverse 😀, has a thermal imager, fully stabilized main gun and better crew ergonomics.
    - until the end of May 15000 Ukrainian soldiers have been trained
    - goal to train soldiers was raised to 30000 by the end of November 2024 but Gen Marlow is sure they will hit the mark much earlier
    Looking at the AMX 10RC I'm under the impression the Ukrainians know how to employ Stug's on steroids.
     
    As @holoween and the @The_Capt said on Bundeswehr vehicles they are for camouflage reasons, mostly made of rubber or some sort of natural fiber like burlap.
  23. Upvote
    SteelRain got a reaction from hcrof in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There is a second video form the press briefing. Sadly only auto generated subtitles are available. Made a short recap.
    - German-French brigade is currently providing most of the instructors for the training hub north with Pz.Btl. 203 providing tank specific training
    - Danish trainers had the most recent knowledge of the Leo1
    - German and Dutch trainers had to reacquire their knowledge as the Leo1 was phased out earlier than in Denmark
    - the press asked if Ukrainians would benefit from the delivery of such a old tank and Marlow repeats all the things that were discussed in this thread
    basically the Leo1a5 is a 2a4 with thin armor compared to the Russian stuff the tank is able to reverse 😀, has a thermal imager, fully stabilized main gun and better crew ergonomics.
    - until the end of May 15000 Ukrainian soldiers have been trained
    - goal to train soldiers was raised to 30000 by the end of November 2024 but Gen Marlow is sure they will hit the mark much earlier
    Looking at the AMX 10RC I'm under the impression the Ukrainians know how to employ Stug's on steroids.
     
    As @holoween and the @The_Capt said on Bundeswehr vehicles they are for camouflage reasons, mostly made of rubber or some sort of natural fiber like burlap.
  24. Upvote
    SteelRain got a reaction from Holien in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    There is a second video form the press briefing. Sadly only auto generated subtitles are available. Made a short recap.
    - German-French brigade is currently providing most of the instructors for the training hub north with Pz.Btl. 203 providing tank specific training
    - Danish trainers had the most recent knowledge of the Leo1
    - German and Dutch trainers had to reacquire their knowledge as the Leo1 was phased out earlier than in Denmark
    - the press asked if Ukrainians would benefit from the delivery of such a old tank and Marlow repeats all the things that were discussed in this thread
    basically the Leo1a5 is a 2a4 with thin armor compared to the Russian stuff the tank is able to reverse 😀, has a thermal imager, fully stabilized main gun and better crew ergonomics.
    - until the end of May 15000 Ukrainian soldiers have been trained
    - goal to train soldiers was raised to 30000 by the end of November 2024 but Gen Marlow is sure they will hit the mark much earlier
    Looking at the AMX 10RC I'm under the impression the Ukrainians know how to employ Stug's on steroids.
     
    As @holoween and the @The_Capt said on Bundeswehr vehicles they are for camouflage reasons, mostly made of rubber or some sort of natural fiber like burlap.
  25. Upvote
    SteelRain reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    "Olenegorskiy gornyak" stands in the dock of Novorossiysk - she would't survive sailing to Sevastopol with such damages
    Reportedly large landing ship "Minsk" and B-237 "Rostov-on-Don" submarine were hit. Also reportedly two workers were killed and 26 were wounded during the strike

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