G.I. Joe

Looks like this thread will bring up China topic every 20 pages, inevitable destiny. Usually I will avoid because I believe this is off topic, also a lot of other members put some very good analysis and insights below. But I would just like to add some comments here.
China is helping Russian to stabilize its currency and inflation level by importing Russian oil/gas at higher than market level price , exporting the low cost consumer goods. And that’s it, nothing else. There are speculation that Chinese leadership is pushing for companies ignore the sanction but no avail. US sanction on Huawei and ZTE looks too scary. With China locked in some political drama this year, none of the Chinese corporation has the initiative to challenge the sanction (which I will explain later)
But the noise of “China is directly supporting Russia war efforts” will not go away. Almost every side is interested in to prove this is correct.
 
America:  making enough noise should remind the Chinese corporations don’t cross the red line, sending a clear message to the faction in CCP that pro business with western, Uncle Sam means business. To preserve our long time partner ship (and profits), you got to stand up and prevent such terrible things from happening. The threat of sanction should also reduce the volume of those panda hugger in Wall st, and make the international investor who want to invest into China think twice (OK, in the age of crazy inflation/recession, invest into America instead, I get it.😐)  ,
 
Russia: Back in 2019, a journalist asked Mr Putin that in the age of trade war between China and US, which one Russian will be side with. Putin replied , “when tigers fight in the valley, the smart monkey sits aside and waits to see who wins”. And this “Smart” monkey made a fatal mistake, got trapped, tigers wandering around the poor monkey. Monkey’s only hope is to have the tigers fight each other asap.  It looks like Putin and Xi had some kind of agreement during Beijing winter Olympic. Regarding how Russian can retaliate China if China refused to help, first , Russia can use the agreement to blackmail Xi
https://www.newsweek.com/china-planned-taiwan-invasion-fall-alleged-russian-intel-leak-claims-1688449
If that doesn’t work as intended , Russia can look for a different option, leak all the secrets to the public. Pushing Uncle Sam to keep his promise and sanction China. After that it’s probably out of control but that is what Russia needs, a chaos.
 
 
Now the most interesting one is China:  President Xi’s inner circle has used all available resource advocating “blood alliance” with Russia. Although never admitted publicly, under the instruction of Publicity Department many news outlets and influencers spread the rumor says Russia has received tremendous war materials from China. Funny thing, this propaganda is for internal political struggle.
Contrary to common popular belief, China is not a dictatorship. It is an oligarchy. Although people love to compare Emperor Xi to Chairman Mao, Xi is not a dictator yet.  Of course, we can safely assume he wants to be the Emperor. And due to the fact that he have made so many enemies,  he’d better to become the dictator to save his ass. So the scheduled ccp 20th party congress become a super important event. The country’s future, many elites families’ fate will be decided in this congress. Xi is facing a strong resistance at this moment. TBH it is unlikely he will be sacked in 20th party congress, but the opposition factions can block many important positions previously promised to Xi’s follower, which makes him a caged tiger without teeth. 
In order to secure his position, expand his territory, Xi must show the Party that under his leadership China has become
1, economic powerhouse: No one is going to deny that, but generally Chinese economic take a downturn under Xi 2nd term. It could face a crisis later this year. Of course, a projected western recession works in his favor. And a Chinese economic crisis works as a double edge sword, bad economic could damage Xi’s opposition factions’ power and influence, boost the message to all party members that we need an isolated, self-sustainable economic, and a STRONG LEADER
2, unification of the whole country: not going to happen this year, but maybe PLA can make a limit size operation, occupy Kinmen, Matsu and Taiping Island
3, successfully defend the population from pandemic: people will buy this in 2021, but with crazy strict lockdown this year, other factions interests have been badly damaged, it may have forced many neutral factions take the opposite side
4, China has taken the leadership of new world order: If Putin can come out as a victorious one. Or even a draw should be good enough, Publicity Department of the Chinese Communist Party will brainwash the population and make people believe that Nato and America is doomed. Empty word won’t help however, Xi must find a way to supply Russia. Unfortunately, most of the Chinese high-tech corporations, military enterprise are controlled by factions that is either hostile to Xi or don’t want to take a side at this moment. So, Xi’s inner circle must make a lot of noise, “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak”.  The propaganda campaign hopefully will convince some of the factions, that ignore US sanction and helping Russia is taking the side with the winning party.  I know this sounds stupid and could backfire. No one guarantee this will work, but that is their plan.
 
 

Suyi notices the RA continuing to pull units from all its frontiers and feed them in. Notice crap medical care too, supporting my contention of much higher KIA ratios than we Westerners are used to.
....I wonder whether Kim will send over some North Koreans 'volunteers' as mercs; Russia might be desperate enough for infantry and it does have a Korean minority so they're deniable. 
Ever since the Gulag closed down, a lot of the logging and mining work in Siberia has been done by Norks, working at slave wages to earn forex for the Hermit Kingdom.

I can't find my original post about 400 pages or so back but its essentially what @Huba said.  My comment was something like 'an anti-radiation missile and a jamming pod strapped to a fast jet does not a SEAD capability make.'  The US pioneered SEAD through hard-won experience in Vietnam and even then lost something north of 200 fixed wing aircraft to some fairly rudimentary SAMs/MANPADs - SA2 and SA7 in the main.
According to Wikipedia - usual caveats apply - Germany and Italy are the only two NATO nations that deploy a specialist aircraft (Tornado ECR).  The former acquired 35 and the latter acquired 16 at a slightly lower spec.  It appears that as of February last year the Germans could only field 20 while the Italians could field 15.
Looking at a more authoritative source - the Royal United Services Institute - the linked article below lays the lack of NATO capability, excepting of course the US, bare:
Getting Serious About SEAD: European Air Forces Must Learn from the Failure of the Russian Air Force over Ukraine | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
 

Due to secrecy, it is always difficult to know. But we can see certain trends. 
Kremlin power struggle is better view as Power Clans struggle than personalities struggle. Personalities can change any moment; Clans are very stable. 
There are three main Clans: KGB clan, Party clan and Military Clan.
For example, in Death of Stalin you see KGB clan (Βeria) was fighting with Party clan (Khrushchev) but Party clan allied with Military clan (Zhukov) and won. 
Fast forward to the end of 90s. Due to Chechnia and Yugoslavia the Party clan (Yeltsin) politically got weak. They needed somebody young and strong. Due to some cunning maneuvers KGB clan managed to finally sneak a young and strong trojan horse (Putin) to Party clan and got power. As a result, KGB clan forcefully allied and further weakened Party clan (now with sort of Medvedev head). Then during Chechen war KGB clan allied with Chechen Joker (Kadirov) against Military clan. Finally, there is Russian Joker (Navalny) 
So, the current disposition is:
 Party clan (Medvedev) weak and mostly irrelevant. But tough guy rhetoric means he is looking toward alliance with hardcore nationalists. That is Military clan. KGB clan (Putin) currently controls everything but politically very weak due to Putin starting the War. Unless they scheme something, they will be out one way or another. Military clan (military junta). Real hardcore nationalist. Dumb, brutal, and angry that KGB clan made them fight real war as a result of which their reputation was flashed to toilet.  Chechen Joker (Kadirov) - seemingly not very important Kadirov is in fact Putin most loyal ally against Military clan. Both Military and Kadirov hate each other due to atrocities during Chechen wars. Kadirov has his own small but well equipped and motivated military. But Kadirov hold loyalty only to Putin and has his own plans to achieve full Chechen independence. Russian Joker (Navalny) - the guy seems to have unnatural ability to survive where all others died. Even current imprisonment can be seen as making sure he survives until he is needed. This implies he is under KGB protection but most likely not under Putin but somebody else because of Putin's ego issues. My take is: 
Military and Party are allying. Medvedev is the Facade, Military junta is a real ruler. They are most likely close to power but probably cannot take out Putin. Putin is scheming to shift blame to military and finally cleanse them. Severodonetks can be a good place to bury Miliary. The more Military lose men and reputation the easier will be to clean them. In case of disloyalty there is a loyal Tik Tok guard. That is why they are not really fighting. Not their job. Somebody in KGB (Patrushev?) is waiting for Putin to die to activate Navalny so he can rise people against military like it was in august 91 then at least guaranty KGB clan survival. Everything hinges on Putin. That's why there are few men following him around to pick up his poo, so nobody can be certain.  That is as far as I can go. I can speculate further but it will not be very reliable. Because for example Military clan is brutal dumb nationalists. That scenario is bad. Like really bad. On other hand they seems to ally with useless Party clan. Which means they are hoping to deal with the outside world. So, at the end they might be not as dumb and brutal as they were in the past and are not going to start WW3.
Who knows. We will have to wait and see. 

I'd argue that there is also a 100% rational principle at stake here. Continuing the war until Ukraine has regained, at a minimum, all of its pre-Feb 24 territory (preferably all of its pre-2014 territory) may prolong the current war and postpone peace in the short term. But I feel it is important for assuring peace in the long term. Russia cannot be allowed to gain anything from this war, or even be able to credibly claim that it has gained anything. The message not only to Russia, but also to all future potential aggressors, should be aggression does not pay.

As a fair few T-72 crew are finding out, when someone gets through your armour, your fuel isn't what you need to worry about when you are stacking ammo in every place it can fit.

Another interesting tweet
 

Thanks! Yes, that rings a bell now that you mention it. Hasegawa even did a "what-if" special edition release of their venerable 1:72 scale A-10 model kit in a hypothetical UAV configuration .

For the past two decades or so, this has been changing, especially with relation to the US. China mostly makes low-level electronics for Western consumption, and as their population has been ageing and the labour costs have been going up, companies have been moving out to other places that are cheaper and/or more convenient (SE Asia, Mexico). Only companies like Apple have stubbornly remained in China, but even they are starting to see the writing on the wall.  Especially with the zero-Covid lockdowns.
If you tell companies "no, you can no longer do business with China, you can no longer do tech transfers, or invest in Chinese businesses," in the West the cost of stuff will go up and you suffer some inconveniences, but for them, it will be fatal, economically.
We had countries like Syria gas their own people with chemical weapons with no real reaction from the West either. Bluntly put, as long as China doesn't actually launch an invasion or war against its neighbours and engages in purely internal affairs, the West + Japan/Korea will not act. But the moment they actually invade Taiwan or send actual military forces to Ukraine, it will be a very different story.

It looks like this may well be the war where drones "come of age." Of course, in some ways that could be said of Vietnam, the 1982 Lebanon War, Desert Storm, Afghanistan and/or Iraq...we're coming up on the 78th anniversary of the first drone strike this September. Sometimes revolutions in warfare happen gradually at first and then the floodgates open. Just look at the trickle of submarine technology from the American War of Independence to World War I...

Just wanted to clarify that the earlier quip about the average age in here was not meant as a joke at the expense of anyone's age or the group in general... I just meant to say that I can relate to feeling old, but didn't want to joke too much about that myself when I'm younger than a number of folks "in the room" as it were.
(And yes, I probably worry too much...)

Just wanted to clarify that the earlier quip about the average age in here was not meant as a joke at the expense of anyone's age or the group in general... I just meant to say that I can relate to feeling old, but didn't want to joke too much about that myself when I'm younger than a number of folks "in the room" as it were.
(And yes, I probably worry too much...)

Reading Murs comments is apparent that every army needs Drone Fighters. And need them like yesterday. 
Orlan type drones behind lines can be taken out with LMM posts but to cover forces in contact that would not be possible. Handheld LMMs or Jammer guns are clumsy, unstealthy, you need to know when to "shoot" and in complex terrain small drones will be exceedingly difficult to find by ground teams.
I believe NATO needs something like this but with addition of machine gun or even smaller and cheaper LMM. 
 
Let me add - every army now needs to have additional drone-based section for AA detachments. The army which would not have it will pay dearly during the next party. 

Thanks! Yes, that rings a bell now that you mention it. Hasegawa even did a "what-if" special edition release of their venerable 1:72 scale A-10 model kit in a hypothetical UAV configuration .

Pay attention to what China does, not what the Russians say the Chinese promised.   Most Chinese banks, funding operations, corporate investment,  business engagements etc. dealing with Russia have backed off or discontinued operations with the Russians.  They don't want to risk Western economic sanctions.
Those Chinese entities aren't independent businesses like McDonalds, Nike or Purnell's Home Folks Country Sausage.  Their actions represent what China really thinks about the Russian invasion--which doesn't seem very supportive.  And, so far, I've heard nothing about Chinese military assets being supplied to Russia.

No surprises indeed. Given Wagner's track record, I half expect them to quietly consider a criminal record a sign of the kind of people they're looking for...
(I'm having trouble not picturing the scene in Blazing Saddles where Hedley Lamar is recruiting new henchmen... )

Wow...from discussion of use of the definite article in front of Ukraine, to the etymology of Україна and shifts in Ukrainian historiography following Independence to a useful dataset relevant to assessing public opinion and confidence in official channels across Russia, all in the space of about a day. This thread really is quite a phenomenon...
This, along with the prior discussion of Russia's status as a continental empire that has not decolonized, reminds me of something the prof I took a few Russian history courses with when I was getting my history degree said once: "You have to remember, Russia has 83 Quebecs." (i.e. Each federal subject of Russia has its own terms of membership and a slightly *ahem* distinct relationship with Moscow).

Yes, CAS in general is very likely going over to drones. I think the odds are excellent that the A-10 replacement will be a UCAV of some sort.

He won't be forgotten. Nor his killers.

Quoting myself with emphasis added: "That these regions are actively searching for information on Google can be seen as an indication that they do not trust and/or are not satisfied with the information from the Russian press, and search results from Yandex."
And yet, St. Pete drops from 55th to 75th place when you switch from in to on - there is a clear preference that begs for a correlation with St. Pete's liberal political climate.
Here are population statistics I took from Wikipedia - estimated 2018 populations for:
Chukotka Autonomous Okrug - 49,348
Jewish Autonomous Oblast - 162,014
Moscow - 12,506,468
St. Petersburg - 5,351,935
Now, Google Trends does not give the full data necessary for statistical analysis, but given the fact that the former two greatly outrank the latter two while having only 1% of their population, your account could be the sole explanation of this only if almost nobody searches on Google in Moscow and St. Pete. In other words, there can be no denying there has to be an effect of people's level of interest, which for sure coexists with other effects such as usage habits, level of unemployment, etc.

Yeah.
I should note that this place was occupied by Russia and they only left in 1991, which is relatively recently (god I'm old). We can't match the hatred Ukraine or Poland has for Russia, because nobody can, but I think we're not far behind.
...
As for Taiwan. Since this is my area, I can say that anything happening to Taiwan is bad news for the whole world. China bloodlessly taking over Taiwan is bad, because it would put a lot of modern microprocessor fabs under their control. Imagine China deciding countries or companies that "insulted it", whatever that means this week, aren't getting any modern electronics?
Anything else than China taking Taiwan peacefully is worse. There' been talks about "how is Russia going to cope with not getting laptops and phones anymore, due to sanctions". If the fabs get blown up, this is everybody in the world not getting laptops, phones, cameras, drones, servers (so businesses can't grow as that often requires new infrastructure) and other things. (*) For about ten years or so, maybe more.
And if the US defends Taiwan and trade breaks between West and China ... that something I can't even begin to estimate, other than "nobody gets anything".
So China ****ing around with Taiwan is one of the worst thing that can happen other than nuclear war and doing nothing about climate change, in my eyes.
Lots of new fabs are being built in US and EU, but those take years and are there to serve demand and not as a replacement - so anything happening to Taiwan few years from now is still bad news.
(*): The "chip shortage" that cause people to be unable to buy cars was caused more by supply chain optimization shenanigans and is a lesson in fragility and antifragiity - Taiwan mostly makes the high end stuff, so it would impact computers and not cars. As for industrial machines, I'm not much of an expert here, but I think they typically use slightly older high end stuff, but the longer lifetimes would protect them somehow.

A little update regarding the UA grain exports.
So in May, 1.5M tons of grain was moved by rail through Poland. Together with capacities offered by Romania, it equaled to more than 2M tons, around 40% of what is needed. I don't know much how the situation looks in RO, but just read an interview with the owner of the biggest intermodal terminal in Poland that is connected to UA broad gauge railway. Few interesting points:
- at the moment the biggest obstacle to move the grain speedily are various custom controls, first and foremost sanitary inspections. UA and PL sides see those problems and are working on them, progress is slow but steady.
- second biggest obstacle is the capacity of ports. Poland is not a huge grain exporter and Polish ports can't match even 10% of capacity UA ports have. Right now bulk of the grain is shipped through the Baltics and an increasing amount is being moved through Western European facilities.
- in the interviewee's opinion, if all delays created by customs would disappear completely, his and second biggest intermodal terminal in Poland could move up to 5M tons of grain alone, basically solving the problem. As of now those work at 20% capacity.
- Polish railways are making a killing on transit fares at the moment
In general it sounds quite uplifting, it's reasonable to believe that  the grain export crisis UA is facing will be solved without unblocking the ports. Suck on that Vlad
Article in Polish,

Good write up today here by Markos (ex arty soldier).  Talks about the arty situation and some kharkiv w some good clarity, speculates on where & when the UKR heavy brigades will be employed.
LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK.  
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/6/13/2104025/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-won-t-get-all-the-artillery-it-wants-but-it-doesn-t-need-to
 

Heh China has a couple aircraft carriers they are still learning how to use.  Japan had 6 fleet carriers and the most experience using them of any Navy.  To counter them the US had 5 fleet carriers and now has 11 and over 75 years of experience.  
Taking Taiwan would make the Normandy landings look like child's play.  The channel from Portsmouth to Normandy is 100 miles.  The Germans were restricted to pretty much the mk 1 eyeball and were mislead as to where a landing might take place.  The US had experience doing multiple amphibious landings.  China has never done one.  The moment a fleet even starts organizing we'll know and Taiwan can reach pretty far out into that strait. 
Militarily it is a suicide mission.

It looks like this may well be the war where drones "come of age." Of course, in some ways that could be said of Vietnam, the 1982 Lebanon War, Desert Storm, Afghanistan and/or Iraq...we're coming up on the 78th anniversary of the first drone strike this September. Sometimes revolutions in warfare happen gradually at first and then the floodgates open. Just look at the trickle of submarine technology from the American War of Independence to World War I...