Machor

@cyrano01
That it was a barrel failure was disseminated through separatist channels themselves. You can also see that the guys hanging around aren't in standard Ukrainian camo, and looking too unprofessional to suggest Ukrainian elites.

A reminder that when Turkey joined NATO along with Greece in February 1952, it had free-and-fair elections with a two party system, an independent judiciary, and a GDP close to that of Italy. The only criterion by which Greece would be allowed to join and Turkey refused would be declaring membership open solely to Christian nations.

'rok armor' is the first upgrade for Ork vehicles. You can spend a few points more per vehicle and upgrade to 'loot armor', which does not increase protection, but provides a morale bonus for the crew:
 
 

A reminder that when Turkey joined NATO along with Greece in February 1952, it had free-and-fair elections with a two party system, an independent judiciary, and a GDP close to that of Italy. The only criterion by which Greece would be allowed to join and Turkey refused would be declaring membership open solely to Christian nations.

Sorry to disappoint but I am not Russian veteran. I was planning to become one and participated in two year study program of one of top Russian military college (Actually It was and still is top Russian military technical university) but instead of "graduation" (you would have to study technical disciplines few more years) I decided to quit because of my observation of how the system really works and what it can do.
If you study real Russian military history Bucha massacre will not come as surprise. Actually, it was not even the main event. Concentration camps with torture and execution conveyer would come later. 
After quitting I made sure that my medical records were corrected, and my mobilization level was severely restricted. Russian corruption is a feature, not a bug. Then after a couple of years I decided to leave completely. Obviously I have connections inside Russia and keeping an eye on what's going on there.

Pic below shows the most important and iconic Warsaw Uprising monument - for me it was always in 'martyrology gone wrong' bucket, yet this is what happens when people see the threat as existential in the most basic meaning of this term. Better to let the kid fight back than be killed like a sheep I guess. War is worst than hell, cause in hell there are no innocents...

And on a less depressing note, another fire in Russian military enterprise, we hadn't have any for a while:
 

Wagner PMC spetsnaz-for-hire also operating up here.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1534771959220797441 Interestingly, all through human history, mercenaries tend *not* to be usable in high intensity / high casualty infantry combat situations like MOUT or forest combat, for the very reason that you can't spend your money if you're dead.
...If you enlist in a foreign legion type unit, a la Gurkhas or Étranger, that's different, you're a foreign enlistee in a regular armed unit, usually under local officers.
And when mercs do accept high risk taskings, these are usually one-offs requiring specialised skills (sappers, frogman, mountaineering, etc.).  And special operators tend to plan such ops so that it's other folks who do the bulk of the dying.  As my SEAL buddy once said, if you're still in active contact after the second clip, you've just become a Marine.
 

Meanwhile, the stage continues to be set for the Russian Monte Cassino. 
It took Ivan 10 days and reinforcements from 90th GTD to secure the (flatter) woodlands on the north bank, and now they get to sit under nonstop fire from the Cave Monastery and its massif on the south bank. Even in the drone era, these kinds of vantage points matter.
The UA OPs are doubtless up on the hilltops, but I'm sure that won't stop the orcs blasting these beautiful monasteries to rubble.
They withdrew, that was baked in when Yarova fell. I doubt a single Ukrainian soldier was left behind.  And 'city' is a bit of a generous description. This district is mainly a bunch of woodland resorts in a national park, very scenic but not much economic or logistical significance.
If RU can somehow take the massif, that could well unhinge the Sloviansk defences at long last, and give credible form to a 'northern pincer' against Donbas.  But that requires a contested river crossing overwatched by high ground, a mountain assault (did I mention the caves part?), or else a breakthough via that 'Sherwood Forest' place into Bohorodychne.
And once more, the Ukrainians are forcing the Russians to attack straight into the worst, least tank-friendly terrain they can find, at the end of tenuous supply routes. Sun Tzu is smiling.  And whatever are this war's version of the Black Tulips continue to go home....
And here we were (I was, anyway) thinking the summer war on the 'steppes' of Southern Ukraine would be largely like Kursk, mainly grasslands or sunflower fields and undulating hills, perfect tank country....

Hi
Just to say hallo. I was lurker in this topic for last 450+ pages and must say I am impressed by what I read here; it's probably one of the best discussion boards regarding this war on anglophone net. Being forced to work for several years on different social platforms like Fb or Discord one cannot appreciate enough old Forum form. Lengthly posts, experts, culture of discussions- kudos, gentlemen.
Anyway, I wanted to draw your attention to this article in New Yorker that is really worth reading.  https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/the-fight-to-survive-russias-onslaught-in-eastern-ukraine
Beside veristic accounts on being under artillery barrage, the reporter spoke with deputy commander of Ukraine forces in Donbass gen. Tarnavsky and mayor of Kramatorsk, so really "big fishes". Some takes:
-Improved Russian tactics “If before they simply marched in large columns, now they have started to actually fight,” he said. The Russian Army has split its forces into smaller groups, which it uses, along with a sizable fleet of drones, to identify and target Ukrainian positions, hitting them with artillery and air strikes. When a particular zone or village has effectively been levelled, ground troops—a mixture of regular Russian soldiers, Wagner mercenaries, and fighters mobilized from the Russia-backed separatist territories in Donetsk and Luhansk, Tarnavsky said—move in to try to seize the rubble."
-Accounts of massive bombardments, sometimes even (hard to believe) of small Ukrainian squads being targeted by several Tochka missiles. Regular artillery advantage is 7:1, after which follows infantry in advantage 5:1 (mind you, it's general so probably best source around). Seems interesting in the light of changing balance between mass-firepower-manouver hypothesis by Freeman.
-Very heavy Ukrainian lossess, especially among regulars and specialists. “They are replaced by doctors and mechanics. We have manpower, but much of this core is dfead or wounded”
-Kramatorsk is being fortified in case enemy come. Mayor has no illusions- the city will become a battleground sooner or later.“We shouldn’t expect any miracles,” he told me. “It’s clear that the longer this goes on, the more territory Russia will gain.” His voice was both jovial and grave. “Let me give you my professional opinion as mayor: if we don’t get heavy weapons in two or three weeks, we’re ****ed.”
So here are rather grim conclusions, different than those from for example ISW.
 
Oh, just spotted other user posted article. Anyway, some of these takes may be interesting.
 
 

Neil Hauer is either being an alarmist to attract attention, is simply alarmist, or there is cause for alarm:
'In this war, the ordinary infantryman is nothing': Ukrainian soldiers in Donbas feel abandoned and outgunned
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/eastern-ukraine-bakhmut-soldiers-exhausted-1.6278984
"Now, under ceaseless bombardment and after immense casualties, some Ukrainian troops say they are feeling abandoned by their leadership — left to die in hopeless conditions."
"Two fighters — Nikita, 35, and his companion, Mikhail, 56, both members of a Ukrainian army unit stationed nearby — just returned from the front line east of Bakhmut, about five kilometres from the city.
"The front just comes closer and closer," said Nikita. "We keep getting pushed back, further and further."
Nikita has been fighting in this region for more than a month now, pushing back against a Russian assault that broke through Ukrainian lines in mid-May and continues to close in on Bakhmut.
His colleague, Mikhail, had also fought in 2014, against the initial Russian invasion of Ukraine. This time, he says, is different.
"[In 2014], I could fight well enough with my rifle," said Mikhail. "Now, I can't. They hit us with planes, helicopters, mortars, tanks, GRADs [rocket artillery]."
"In this war, the ordinary infantryman is nothing," said Nikita. "Now it's all artillery and heavy weapons. The average soldier, he can't do anything."
"We are just cannon fodder," Mikhail interjects."
"Despite the thousands of pieces of Western military aid delivered to Ukraine, Nikita said he and his men have seen nothing of them.
"We have just our rifles. Maybe an RPG [launcher] or two. Against a tank or an armoured vehicle? What am I supposed to do?" he said rhetorically.
In his view, the leadership in Kyiv cares little for those fighting out here.
"[Kyiv] has not sent us any new weapons — and they're not going to," said Nikita. 
"Everything new and fancy has been reserved for those other places: Kyiv, Kharkiv, the big cities. Headquarters thinks, 'Well, you [in the east] have been fighting the Russians for eight years already. You'll be fine.'"
Nikita shakes his head, before turning to even harsher words for his superiors.
"You have to understand that there are two castes in this country," he said. "There's the upper caste, and then there's us: the lower caste. We are just pawns. Nothing more. The upper caste gets the money, and we get the command: 'Forward!' 
"That's how it's always worked here [in Ukraine]," he said, before emphasizing that he doesn't expect anyone to believe him.
"No one here wants to hear the truth," said Nikita. "They just want the beautiful story of how Ukraine is united. But here, we're f--ked.""
"Other soldiers filtering through the shawarma stand also tell dire tales of being outgunned and outnumbered as fighting in the region intensifies. 
Two scouts with Ukraine's naval infantry, both in their early 20s and both named Sergei, have been fighting since the first days of the war. 
They arrived in the Donbas after escaping the most difficult battle of Ukraine's war to date: Mariupol, the port city destroyed during a brutal two-month siege.
"We've been [fighting] along the entire eastern front line," said the younger Sergei, 21. 
"We were sent all over in the Mariupol area, in Nikolne, Rozivka, Zachativka," he said, listing villages north of the port city.
One of their assignments involved being sent to cover the retreat of Ukrainian forces pulling out of Mariupol — a task they say nearly saw them killed as they were overwhelmed by a Russian force they were not equipped to fight.
"Our guys [in Mariupol] were almost encircled, so we were sent there to guard the exodus," said the younger Sergei. "The Russians put out 200 vehicles against us. They caught us and surrounded us in a village. [It was] just 70 of us against all that."
The only weapons on hand for that fight, said the older Sergei, 24, were machine guns and a few N-LAWs, British-made anti-tank missiles.
"We held out for six days. We managed to destroy the first tank in their column and that held them up, as the others were stuck behind it," he said. 
"But they brought up their artillery. We had almost nothing to fight them with. Finally, we managed to escape at night — we snuck out on foot.""
"Dmitry, a 41-year-old member of Ukraine's Territorial Defence, uses a little humour to confront the grim reality of the situation. "Bakhmut, it's like Monte Carlo," he said, laughing. "Russian roulette on every corner!"
Then his eyes darken, and his smile fades.
"I can describe the situation here in a few short words," Dmitry said. "Very f--king awful.""

More pics of that busted D-20:




 

Neil Hauer is either being an alarmist to attract attention, is simply alarmist, or there is cause for alarm:
'In this war, the ordinary infantryman is nothing': Ukrainian soldiers in Donbas feel abandoned and outgunned
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/eastern-ukraine-bakhmut-soldiers-exhausted-1.6278984
"Now, under ceaseless bombardment and after immense casualties, some Ukrainian troops say they are feeling abandoned by their leadership — left to die in hopeless conditions."
"Two fighters — Nikita, 35, and his companion, Mikhail, 56, both members of a Ukrainian army unit stationed nearby — just returned from the front line east of Bakhmut, about five kilometres from the city.
"The front just comes closer and closer," said Nikita. "We keep getting pushed back, further and further."
Nikita has been fighting in this region for more than a month now, pushing back against a Russian assault that broke through Ukrainian lines in mid-May and continues to close in on Bakhmut.
His colleague, Mikhail, had also fought in 2014, against the initial Russian invasion of Ukraine. This time, he says, is different.
"[In 2014], I could fight well enough with my rifle," said Mikhail. "Now, I can't. They hit us with planes, helicopters, mortars, tanks, GRADs [rocket artillery]."
"In this war, the ordinary infantryman is nothing," said Nikita. "Now it's all artillery and heavy weapons. The average soldier, he can't do anything."
"We are just cannon fodder," Mikhail interjects."
"Despite the thousands of pieces of Western military aid delivered to Ukraine, Nikita said he and his men have seen nothing of them.
"We have just our rifles. Maybe an RPG [launcher] or two. Against a tank or an armoured vehicle? What am I supposed to do?" he said rhetorically.
In his view, the leadership in Kyiv cares little for those fighting out here.
"[Kyiv] has not sent us any new weapons — and they're not going to," said Nikita. 
"Everything new and fancy has been reserved for those other places: Kyiv, Kharkiv, the big cities. Headquarters thinks, 'Well, you [in the east] have been fighting the Russians for eight years already. You'll be fine.'"
Nikita shakes his head, before turning to even harsher words for his superiors.
"You have to understand that there are two castes in this country," he said. "There's the upper caste, and then there's us: the lower caste. We are just pawns. Nothing more. The upper caste gets the money, and we get the command: 'Forward!' 
"That's how it's always worked here [in Ukraine]," he said, before emphasizing that he doesn't expect anyone to believe him.
"No one here wants to hear the truth," said Nikita. "They just want the beautiful story of how Ukraine is united. But here, we're f--ked.""
"Other soldiers filtering through the shawarma stand also tell dire tales of being outgunned and outnumbered as fighting in the region intensifies. 
Two scouts with Ukraine's naval infantry, both in their early 20s and both named Sergei, have been fighting since the first days of the war. 
They arrived in the Donbas after escaping the most difficult battle of Ukraine's war to date: Mariupol, the port city destroyed during a brutal two-month siege.
"We've been [fighting] along the entire eastern front line," said the younger Sergei, 21. 
"We were sent all over in the Mariupol area, in Nikolne, Rozivka, Zachativka," he said, listing villages north of the port city.
One of their assignments involved being sent to cover the retreat of Ukrainian forces pulling out of Mariupol — a task they say nearly saw them killed as they were overwhelmed by a Russian force they were not equipped to fight.
"Our guys [in Mariupol] were almost encircled, so we were sent there to guard the exodus," said the younger Sergei. "The Russians put out 200 vehicles against us. They caught us and surrounded us in a village. [It was] just 70 of us against all that."
The only weapons on hand for that fight, said the older Sergei, 24, were machine guns and a few N-LAWs, British-made anti-tank missiles.
"We held out for six days. We managed to destroy the first tank in their column and that held them up, as the others were stuck behind it," he said. 
"But they brought up their artillery. We had almost nothing to fight them with. Finally, we managed to escape at night — we snuck out on foot.""
"Dmitry, a 41-year-old member of Ukraine's Territorial Defence, uses a little humour to confront the grim reality of the situation. "Bakhmut, it's like Monte Carlo," he said, laughing. "Russian roulette on every corner!"
Then his eyes darken, and his smile fades.
"I can describe the situation here in a few short words," Dmitry said. "Very f--king awful.""

Thank you. I am actually long time CM player (fell in love with CMBO) and forum reader as well. But I avoided commenting because until recently my opinion that Russians military sucks big time was not very popular.  
If I am not mistaken Murz said somewhere else that they started to compensate lack of proper infantry by increasing number of tubes used for assault support leaving some areas defenseless. For example, for Popasna assault they left Donetsk defenseless artillery wise. 
AFAIK It is much worse - when weapons go to storage they are usually cannibalized for spare parts. After that nobody really checks or maintain them. Any auditor/controller is simply bribed. Possibly that is the reason they do not inspect guns beforehand - otherwise they will have to report the scale of the problem and face the consequences. 
I do not believe they had a large "ready" inventory or any inventory at all. Do not underestimate incompetence of Russian officers.  20 years ago when I almost became one I was very flabbergasted at the whole system and decided not to proceed.
 Oh, I hope one day somebody translate all Murz rants about how inefficient Russian Army is. Only Wagnerites/PMC or LDNR+Russian volunteers may be capable of doing that fast. But regular Russian Army on a mass scale? No. Just No. 
Personally, from my limited experience with Russian army + what I know from reading Russians I believe your predictions are spot on. It is just Russian society (and the army as part of that society) is like pressure cooker - it can withstand a lot of internal pressure without huge visible cracks for a time being. Then it explodes when nobody expects.

Lavrov gets a though guestion from a Ukrainian reporter in Turkey today regarding Russia's theft of Ukrainian grain.
Notice in his response he said Russia's goal is removing "Neo-Nazi's" from eastern Ukraine rather than the whole country.
 

First 3 months of the war, in 1,5 minute. Frontlines moving, and 2100 cruise missile strikes.
 
 

Thanks ) Just became some more of work, my wife turned back and often occupies PC because her work, also it's hard to live three months 24/7 as war news translator, so I took small vacations 

This is that first famous large column of Rosgvardia, destroyed in first or second day of war. All this did 6th company of 92nd mech.brigade near Kutuzivka village NE from Kharkiv. The company in Day 1 turned out itself in the rear of Russians, because they advanced forward too fast, trying to enter in Kharkiv. In first contacts the company lost 3 BTR-4E, but despite this company commander decided to break through back to Kharkiv. The company, heading toward the city, encountered with large columnn of Rosgvardia/OMON, which drove in the same direction. Commander immadiately ordered to attack them - as result almost whole column was destroyed, but from full elimination Russians were saved because two their tanks appeared on the road and engaged UKR company. Two more BTR-4E were knokced out by tanks, so rest of company broke contakt and on full speed reached Kharkiv.

Ukrainian Navy Mi-14PS is attacked by a Russian Su-35 (?) with its cannon; the fighter supposedly finished the chopper off in the second run with an R-73 missile:
 

The interior of a T-72B3 that apparently was penetrated in the turret from the gunner's side, Thales TI controls visible. The blood stains tell a story:

Interesting view on the domestic car market in Russia. 
 
 

Unfortunately no. You really have to see it as a towed gun mounted directly on its tractor and not as an SPG. The crew must load the shell on the stretcher (the rest is done hydraulically), add the propellant charge etc. The shells are stored on the sides and therefore require to be installed on the stretcher. Barrel angle and movement can only be achieved with rear command box as well as for firing. When firing (depending on the number of propellant charges) the cabin at the front rises (up to about 1 meter in Afghanistan at maximum propellant charge). It could be dangerous for the crew.

@Vanir Ausf B @Fenris @SeinfeldRules
Thinking back to the video and some additional information. It is stated in the video that the commander seen towards the end commands 6 CAESAR (battery?) and that his unit allegedly destroyed 80 Russian guns.
From a professional point of view (which interests you), we see on the video that the coordinates of the target are indicated manually on the gun calculator (the computer at the front, the CALP) (3: 05). The gun then automatically calculates its angle and direction of fire based on its coordinates thanks to the inertial navigation system. In the French army, there is no need to enter them manually because the coordinates are transmitted automatically. A nod to the previous exchanges we had regarding integration (radio etc)

PS : by continuing and with a bit of luck, I will be able to sell a CAESAR to Steve 😂

It's not the software I used. I think it's the export software (unless there is massive software update since I left). Nexter is written in large on the software which could well show that it is indeed an export version. This would explain why the software is in English. The time that an update in Ukrainian would have taken (and the money above all...) may explain why this was not done.
 
Yes, that's what it says. Basically, they say that the CAESARs are effective, that they are precise and caused panic in the enemy ranks (moment with the drone videos) then once the CAESARs have fired, they quickly leave the position to avoid counter battery. It is also indicated that transfers from base to base are carried out only at night so as not to be spotted and that the position of the unit is kept secret because it would be a priority target for the Russians.

His argument is also highly flawed historically because the last few times this happened in the 20th century, the Russians had significant external help from the West.

In the build-up to World War I, after the humiliation of the Russo-Japanese War, the French invested heavily in Russia's arms industry and infrastructure (e.g. Schneider et cie. bought out the Putilov works, and French funding helped build the Trans-Siberian Railway).

After the Russian Civil War, American technical expertise practically built the Soviet industrial base from the absolute ruins of the Civil War, and Lend-Lease gave the Soviet industry the critical life support that it needed post-Barbarossa to produce basic things like explosives. Otherwise the Soviets would have run out of shells sometime in 1942/43. Furthermore, the actual military material help (tanks, aircraft, etc.) was also significant and started arriving during the most critical phases of the Eastern Front.

Who is going to do that after this war? China? They have no interest in rebuilding Russia, they just want it as a cheap oil and other resource extraction site. At best they want a Russia that can distract the Europeans.

Very interesting question but it needs some context:

So this graphic is interesting - it is built from some research done at Georgia tech, for the real nerds the excel sheets in detail are avail at https://brecke.inta.gatech.edu/research/conflict/.  We have had periods of "great peace" before as you can see.  What is missing from this graphic are the Mongol Conquests that occurred between 1200-1400 AD, which still ranks only second to the Three Kingdoms War (182-280 BC) as the most deadly in history as percentages of the overall human population at the time (and this does not give full credit to the Mongol Invasions contributions to the Black Death).  So before 1400 there was a major spike and then between 1400 and 1600 we basically had a lot of small wars between fiefdoms but overall deaths were kept low. (Also note that the deaths as a result of conquest of the New World are also not included, which by some estimates were obscene).
Then right about the time we had the "Peace of Westphalia" deaths by war went on a bit of a wild ride with spikes about every 50 years, right about the time the generations that fought the last major war died off.  This is pretty consistent, we get a big spike as the 3rd post-last-war generation tries to re-order things, then an exhausted peace, then another spike...and then the 20th century happened.  If we go with anything less than 10 deaths out of 100,000 globally as the "peace line", the 20th century was a Season of Mars, and this after one of the most peaceful stretches in the late 19th century, right after the US Civil War.  So for higher resolution of more recent history:

So we have the Chinese Civil war there, ending in '49.   Korea, and then things do start to drop as we enter into the time of intra-state wars and wars of intervention of the Cold War.  Still pretty active but below that 10 per 100,000 line...and then 1989 happened.  It is hard to believe, based on how busy our militaries have been but we definitely have been living a "great peace" between 1989 and about 2012 as the world enjoyed a single super power order and we basically only had small little savage wars to deal with, not unlike the much briefer period in the late 19th century.  Neither of these charts take into account the Russo-Ukraine War, which is vicious but still a smallish war by earlier standards.
So as to the original question...my guts says "yes" we are entering a new phase of something.  You can track all these charts directly to power competition, which has largely been dormant since the end of the Cold War.  We argued a lot but most of the nations who "won" the Cold War have not had a civil war, or engaged in a state-based one, we all got rich instead.  The dirty little wars on the margins continue but they were largely civil wars or nasty little regional affairs.  Russia has signaled that it is willing to pay a blood price to re-order things, and here we are today.  I am betting we will see more proxy wars and look more like the 60s and 70s and some state-on-state clashes.  Will we go back to the old model of great big wars every 50 years like we saw between 1650-1945?  Doubtful, as we will likely see the biggest spike in history in the form of an escalated thermonuclear exchange if we try that out.  My bet is some form of nasty power competition as East and West rebalance.