Hapless

It's gonna happen one day. I can't see KA-52s being close to the front, especially behaving so apparently nonchalantly, so this is a really good illustration of just how deep drones are getting.

Wake me up when it happens. I'd love to take credit for this idea.  
 
 
 

It's gonna happen one day. I can't see KA-52s being close to the front, especially behaving so apparently nonchalantly, so this is a really good illustration of just how deep drones are getting.

Fascinating insights into NATO training for Ukraine; what worked and what didn't.
https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1699193558685618235
 

Brendan McBreen, a retired USMC Lieutenant Colonel, ran 300 squad assaults in CMSF and drew insights from them. McBreen, who has 25 years of service as an infantry officer, found that the service's manuals and training materials give only vague and inadequate guidance about how to conduct a squad assault. He used CMSF to run a series of tests, matching a rifle squad against different defenders, and tallied up the results. 
Then he wrote up his findings. The whole series of seven articles appears over on the Tactical Notebook, a Substack run by Bruce Ivar Gudmundsson, a historian in Quantico. 
Abstract Part I Part II Part III (test setup within CMSF) Part IV Part V (tactical insights) Part VI (recommendations) Among McBreen's recommendations: "train with simulations" and "use simulations to improve our manuals." 
Fight Club US and Fight Club UK merit acknowledgements.
 

Re: possible insurgency
1. First off, as Steve already said, things can theoretically happen. We're talking about the most likely scenario. Anyone who predicts future with 100% certainty is a fraud.
2. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of bad blood. Just as you saw a lot of Crimeans genuinely cheering up and supporting the invaders in 2014, the Crimeans saw people on mainland Ukraine cheer powerlines being blown up as 2 million people plunged into darkness, water channel being cut off, the roads being blocked for cargo traffic, with all the little nasty consequences that were actually physically felt here. The reactionary post-2014 policies, laws and rethoric weren't great either. But compared to all the mayhem what's been happening since Feb 2022, this is nothing. And people are TIRED of chaos, flying jets, drones, explosions and death. Those who are currently in the trenches or came from there are tired as well.
3. What would be "the cause" to rally behind? They can't even formulate victory conditions for the current war. Nor can they achieve anything significant, with all their men and equipment in the field. Rallying (who, civilians?) to do something a huge army can't do? That requires guts and there's none. Only stupidity and hubris. They are unable to say NO when told to do something stupid or illegal. Saying no requires guts.
4. You need to understand the reality on the ground. Pretty much all Crimeans who haven't left have Russian passports. What, 1.5-2 million people? Myself included. Because living here without one is practically impossible. Hell, I know Crimeans who left and are currently on mainland Ukraine that also have Russian passports, issued in Crimea in 2014 (illegaly, obviously). For Ukrainian government to take back control, they'll have to deal with it somehow. And bunch of other documents. There's already been laws and decrees passed aimed to make the transition back as painless as possible. There's a whole ministry that's dealing with issues like these. Refer to Ministry of Reintegration sources for more information.
5. That being said, it's been nine years, and nobody can pretict how much more time will pass before that. It can happen in two months, or in two years, or in ten. And with every single day, people are growing more tired. They are trying as hard as they can not to notice what's happening now. And there's no land warfare close by yet. When it comes, they'll have much more incentive to make it stop ASAP.
 
Re: how am I doing?
My life isn't as horrible as for some others out there. But things can change literally any minute, as for everybody else in the region. So I am trying to live in the moment while I can.
For those who don't know, I tried to get to Estonia via St.Petersburg back in September. Before Feb 2022, it was illegal (by Ukrainian laws) thing to do. I managed to contact some Ukrainian officials and learned that it is okay during the war, if your purpose is to leave the occupied areas/Russia.
But, as I also have Russian passport (issued locally after 2014, and almost impossible to get rid of without being put into danger), Russia views me as Russian citizen first, and by their laws, I had to get foreign travel passport in order to leave. I did that, and it took time. I also had to prepare money and other affairs. Thus I managed to get to the Estonian border only in September. My thinking was that it would be safer to deal with Russian documents after I cross the border, not before.
I knew that Russian passports issued in Crimea are not recognized by the EU. My Ukrainian foreign travel passport was outdated by that point. The rules are: you can apply for asylum if you have no valid travel documents. But when I got to the border, Estonian police and border guard told me that everything is fine with my Russian passport (the travel document I had to use to leave the Russian side of the border, because Russian laws) and thus I cannot ask for an asylum.
I told them many things about myself, and that I would be in danger if I return, but they did not care. They were angry and not cooperative, unwilling to listen. They blamed me for not coming sooner and for other things I had no control over. That night at the border is something that still haunts me to this day. Being rejected by the people who you considered to be good and being sent back to modern day neo-USSR. And there are things that I am not telling you here, because it is dangerous...
Anyway.. I came to St.Petersburg. Got seriously ill. Still, I got tickets to Vladikavkaz in order to try crossing into Georgia. But soon I found a lot of info online that told me the same story would happen there as well. There were no other good alternatives that came to my mind. Going somewhere else eastward wasn't looking like a good idea either, legally, logistically and for other reasons.
At that time, my little sister was still in Crimea. I've decided to come back here and deal with whatever happens to all of us together. Since then, there was a harsh winter without work. Serious depression, from which I barely managed to recover on my own, without meds or therapist. The dangers that are lurking out there are real. But I know who I am and what I stand for, and where my allegiance is.
Most importantly, I know that the bastards have already lost. I knew that back in Feb 2022. They will not succeed, no matter what happens to me personally. They can't do anything good in this world, and there's no "winning" for them in any shape or form.
I've stopped working on my Unity dev career for now. I tried to find some remote work, but failed and had to return back to working in a store. I do see a future where things go at least a little bit better. But for that to happen, a lot of people have to put in a lot of effort. There's nothing free, and freedom itself is not free. We all have to work for it.
Alright, I've already said much more than I should've. Over and out.

Obviously Zelensky is getting a bit tired of people asking him how much of Ukraine he's willing to give up:
 

Obviously Zelensky is getting a bit tired of people asking him how much of Ukraine he's willing to give up:
 

Looks like they have been hitting the Kerch birdge with naval drones:
 

Looks like they have been hitting the Kerch birdge with naval drones:
 

Looks like they have been hitting the Kerch birdge with naval drones:
 

Looks like they have been hitting the Kerch birdge with naval drones:
 

Cluster munitions in the second video- hard to say if they were on target given the quality, but a big stringy blob of dismounted infantry fleeing under DPICM isn't exactly an indicator of success.

Cluster munitions in the second video- hard to say if they were on target given the quality, but a big stringy blob of dismounted infantry fleeing under DPICM isn't exactly an indicator of success.

Cluster munitions in the second video- hard to say if they were on target given the quality, but a big stringy blob of dismounted infantry fleeing under DPICM isn't exactly an indicator of success.

Cluster munitions in the second video- hard to say if they were on target given the quality, but a big stringy blob of dismounted infantry fleeing under DPICM isn't exactly an indicator of success.

Cluster munitions in the second video- hard to say if they were on target given the quality, but a big stringy blob of dismounted infantry fleeing under DPICM isn't exactly an indicator of success.

Cluster munitions in the second video- hard to say if they were on target given the quality, but a big stringy blob of dismounted infantry fleeing under DPICM isn't exactly an indicator of success.

Cluster munitions in the second video- hard to say if they were on target given the quality, but a big stringy blob of dismounted infantry fleeing under DPICM isn't exactly an indicator of success.

Haven't seen one of these for a while. What I'm finding more interesting is the way the Ukrainians are hounding it (assuming that it's the same vehicle being hit, then recovered).

This really speaks to FPV drones as munitions, a 'permissive drone environment' (ie. no obvious countermeasures) and an ISR capability that allows tracking of individual vehicles. I'd love to know the strike mechanics: is there a taxi-rank of FPV drones assigned to an ISR drone waiting for targets or do they launch them individually? Does a single team operate both, or are there separate hunter and killer teams that need to co-locate?

Haven't seen one of these for a while. What I'm finding more interesting is the way the Ukrainians are hounding it (assuming that it's the same vehicle being hit, then recovered).

This really speaks to FPV drones as munitions, a 'permissive drone environment' (ie. no obvious countermeasures) and an ISR capability that allows tracking of individual vehicles. I'd love to know the strike mechanics: is there a taxi-rank of FPV drones assigned to an ISR drone waiting for targets or do they launch them individually? Does a single team operate both, or are there separate hunter and killer teams that need to co-locate?

Both ways, depending on drone unit. Attack drones can be used not only be special drone teams or "shtat" UCAV companies in brigades, but even usual infantry platoon, where smart guys learned how to care with Mavics with grenade dropping system or with race drones with RPG projectile and then ordered these drones from fundrising. I can say maybe 80-90 % of such drones are "non-shtat" weapon, supplying through fundrising, charity funds, civil volunteers, "Army of drones"/NAFO/United24 initiatives.  

Meanwhile, in Russia:
That is a chunky, visible, photogenic mushroom cloud.

Meanwhile, in Russia:
That is a chunky, visible, photogenic mushroom cloud.

Meanwhile, in Russia:
That is a chunky, visible, photogenic mushroom cloud.