The_MonkeyKing

This North Stream sabotage was mainly made to indirectly threaten that this might very well happen to Norwegian gas lines as well. Or so I believe.

Yeah, missed that. Why did they have to rename it to Strv 122, haha. Also some others missing but main point being even with very low balled analysis 200 modern Leopard 2's for Ukraine are totally doable.

Probably made a new bridge out of the tanks wrecks Russia left there in its own crossing attempt in the summer. hah

At least in Finland the weather would not have significant effect on operations. This is a basic principle of all preparation and planning. Finland is in some sort of "weather trouble" 2/3 of the year. I doubt Ukrainians would wind down their ops because of weather. Weather also effect both sides and gives an advantage to the one that adapts better.

European countries could create a "pool" so that everyone chips in with 10-30% of they tanks that would be replaced sometime after Ukraine situation cools down then. Some of this pool would be internally swapped and some send to Ukraine, making sure Ukraine gets the up to date modes and similar versions. From here you can find the operators: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leopard_2 around half are 2A5-A7 and half 2A4. This means Ukraine could easily get around 200. That would be a "worth it" amount. and again to remind everyone most of these tanks exist only to counter Russian threat. In Ukraine they will be decreasing that threat even further. Russian threat has now decreased significantly(for the next decade or so) and Europe will be able to rearms faster than Russia after the war cools down.

I think it is very double faced for the Germans to state they are not sending tanks because nobody else is and at the same time they are blocking everyone from sending any German made tanks first. In Europe German made tanks are almost the only option.

I believe we are living in a different timeline than the on CMBS is happening in. I guess some new things have been learned that would justify changes to CMBS. For example relating to capacities of some weapon systems like the likelihood of catastrophic cookoffs for the Russian vehicles.

If I had to guess Ukraine has completely run out on it modern ATGM like the stugna. This is got to be the replacement for the heavy long range infantry ATGM.

Misquoted by accident "the escalate to achieve this" part. It was more in the lines of Rus leadership really believing that they are losing, but to NATO in form of assistance Ukraine is getting.

He was referring this as from the Kremlins perspective. I think it is undeniable they are now banking on the hope of winning "the battle of wills" with the west. How realistic this hope is another subject.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/russias-plan-to-stay-in-the-war/ Ukraine positioning in Harkiv. Maybe for winter maybe for a new attack Risk of nuclear use the highest since 1983. Still low likelihood but with such huge event small percentage becomes unacceptable Russian nuclear doctrine is not relevant here as a predictor Russians are watering down any deterrence the Crimea might have had in the past by equating this years conquests to it. Mobilization practically puts Russia in a "war time state". "I don't believe the Russian number at all" (the 300 000 number). Looks to be as total mobilization as they can manage. Both industry and manpower. It is a phased general mobilization. Mobilization is going to rollout for the next year in many phases. Now strategy to get manpower fast to the front. Up to 100 000 right away. Stop-loss policies are significant part of mobilization. All present and past professionals are included. Hastily send reinforcements to worn out units. "on the job training". Hastily formed "LNR and DPR type" light infantry formations coming to "plug the holes". New formations coming in 3-4 months to "hopefully" do rotations on the line. They are afraid of significant Ukrainians successes and are in a hurry with the mobilization. Mobilization solves the issue of quantity, not quality. Overall quality of the force is going to significantly lower. The outcome of the mobilization is "worrying" to Kofman. We have not seen anything like this in the resent past and the manpower being mobilized seems to be very significant. Long term reaction of the homefront remains unknown. Big question is what Russian force looks like after winter. Mobilization might very significantly extent the war. If nothing drastic doesn't happens soon. Russian protest are insignificant and localized. What about when successive waves of mobilization happen? Stalin had a mobilization regime, Putin has a non-mobilization regime. (talking about general participation of the population) There always was two point of no return, mobilization and annexation. Now the first happened and the second one is imminently expended. Russia is now coupling itself to the outcome of this conflict. Possible any future regimes as well. International support horizon will now move to next year and the year after that. Sustainment is important. Russians are now making a full bet on winning with time and will. Russians would be way more willing to lose to NATO than Ukraine. Russian leadership might indeed see itself losing to NATO inform of assistance Ukraine is getting.

and also future sales. Ukraine already has 100 Pzh2000 on order for the coming years.

Opposition motions rarely advance. Still interesting indication that the subject is still not set in stone. If the majority of EU countries all give a portion of their Leopard 2 fleet Ukraine could get a significant amount. +100 easily. Even Germany has enough to chip in. Especially German defense industry. At least in logistical and maintenance portion of the "deal". And to be realistic Germany can afford to give away even 75% of their MBTs. Who exactly would be attacking Germany? The tanks would go towards reducing the only military threat mainland Europe has, Russia. The Russian threat will be reduced close to zero for years to come. Germany has time to rebuild (or buy Abrams). EDIT: I think even us Finns could give half(100pcs) of our Leopards. Exactly because of the reduced threat from Russia and now the added security of NATO.

Again, doesn't mean the government would do anything. But I can see a Leo2 "pool" happening. Everyone gives what they can to get something like 100 pieces together. And of course new ones on order for next year(s). Finland alone could give 10-20 I am sure. Of course this would cause a capability gap but we must remember that this equipment is earmarked already for Russian and will lower the Russian thread.

It is going to be a lot more. BUT CMBS is a different timeline and the current war is going to have minimal effect in CMBS development. Maybe some tweaks to units we have now learned more about I suspect (units that are in both, our and CMBS timelines). Ukraine 2022 is going to have to be a whole new title if it ever gets represented in combat mission.

More signs of some extreme measures.

Indeed. I was thinking more about the logic Kremlin is using. I am sure they believe they can equip them and if nothing else, crush Ukraine with pure mass if nothing else.

More I think about it this might very well be a 100% all in from Russia. The 300k figure is to confuse the wests response. 300k is the lowest figure that can give smoke screen for total mobilization. They want to apply maximum pressure so the casualties and time spend would be minimized. Also not that much time for wests counter response. Also the internal political response might be though similar for lets say 30% or 100% mobilization. 100% mobilization would also be shorter in their logic, quicker victory. Mobilization is expensive and cannot be sustained indefinably. As with everything, do it well, or don't do it at all.

https://geopolitics-decanted.simplecast.com/episodes/betting-it-all-on-black-putins-partial-mobilization-and-escalation-strategy-in-ukraine Good point from Michael Kofman and Rob Lee. Do not believe the 300k number for mobilization for a second. This is not even written on anything (not that would make it any better), this is just what the guy who lies always said in a speech. What interest Russia would have in telling even a ballpark accurate numbers here? The opposite, huge risk. Think about it; What would Russia say if it was conducting absolute maximum mobilization? I think way too many people take the number as some sort of guide. Mistake.

Zerg rush incoming (or should I say Sergey rush) Also there is also lost of speculation because of the seeming scope of the mobilization. Age dispersion seems to be huge.

Well, Russians are positioning themselves in a corner.

We have seen how popular uprisings go. It gets bloody for the guys without guns and tanks. Only good outcomes if the guys with guns have at least partial change of heart.

Those cops have friends.

I think they know what will happen if they resist. Escalation dominance...

"Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks." This mobilization is again going to prolong the conflict possibly significantly. I would like all that suffering and lives to be spared. One way to counter act the effect of this mobilization is to expand the aid Ukraine is getting. Long range missiles, long-range air defense, western air force modernization getting started and equipping mechanized formations with western kit please now.