The_MonkeyKing

We should probably compare this to the initial Harkiv attack. How far Ukraine went and how much it needed to pause for before continuing. Similar laws might apply here

distances are so long that Russians are really starting to run out of space only if this Northern half collapses.

Just a reminder on the size of the area.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577202149821321216?s=20&t=Wt79f_EgC4U4EjCcfZy7xg Rumor to get excited about

For some reason Soviet vehicles tend to be build with harsh winter condition in mind.

That is not the reason. Finns do it no problem. The equipment gets strapped on the outside of the vehicle or gets transported in companies trucks. Yes, you can fit inside with modern gear. It is still more comfortable than on top with bad weather or shrapnel threat. Example you can sleep inside BMP-2 on the move, good luck with that on top. I don't agree with the riding on top stuff.

Pulls out conclusion out of his hat based on very little. Example in the spring concluded that Germany and France are going to let up on their support based on body language in a photoshoot. And oh god the economic analysis. If he is right the western economy will fail and the main economic models don't work. Especially in his strategic level commentary, but also in tactical level he makes a lot of baseless conclusions. Resent example concluding Harkiv attack run out of steam weeks ago and Kherson op failed already many many times. He shows the front rumors well, but any analysis or future predictions are just wild, and made with such confidence. Also again the world economic predictions. Oh, god

"The War in Ukraine YouTube channel" is totally useless. I don't want to get too wound up so I will not get in to it more...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ukrainian-troops-continue-offensive-claim-new-gains/2022/10/03/25b6ea0e-42f9-11ed-be17-89cbe6b8c0a5_story.html Wouldn't have believed I would be reading this couple years back: Russian MoD stating Ukraine broke though their lines with superior tanks forces.

Yeah, if the report is true this is more of an abandonment of positions than setting up defense. Defense setup there would keep the "dam" unblown until the positions would have to be abandoned. f for nothing else, to keep the reservoir full and extending the water obstacle. Nothing less than a battlemech could cross that thing under fire.

Any opinions is the Russian Kherson bridgehead viable without the Northern part? If you give benefit of the doubt to Russian military capabilities in the region.

Well, I guess that settles the extend of the current advance EDIT: It is an earth dam with a road on top of it (definitely can be blown up also) Would cause a couple kilometer detour for the Ukrainians.

If somebody told me a week ago Ukraine was going to make +20km advances in Kherson in 24h I would not have believed them.

Russians themselves should think of that before starting waging war with nukes and with the knowledge of what will happen. Very little else would be enough of a deterrent of Russian nuclear use. You must take away what they aim to achieve with the nuclear use. This is taking away victory from Russia in Ukraine totally. Limited cruise missile strike like in Syria after chemical weapons? -> Just a propaganda tool for the Ruskies. Otherwise ignored. More sanctions -> Russia has already accepted maximalist economic consequences and doesn't "think far enough" at this moment. More aid to Ukraine? -> Russia has already accepted Ukraine will get everything it needs from the west. Also there is a maximum effective amount of aid that might not be enough above the current level.

I so hope Ruskies make a demo use of nukes for example on Snake Island. So we could get this **** finished with minimal time and costs.

In Kherson even a kilometer a day and Russians are in the river next month.

Pretty awesome thread on the current Kherson news and rumors. Everything you need to know. Sources and constantly updating

Claims getting pretty wild EDIT: this is so extremely it is false. Just posting this as an example of a wild claim. Realistic interpretation is that Berislav is just given as a direction.

Interesting

Now live started an hour ago (rewindable): including Kofman Pretty interesting event as a whole. https://helsinkisecurityforum.fi/hsf-2022/

Time to wrap up the North part of the bridge head?

Where are the Russians? Once again the content slipped out? How has there been no pockets in this war that end in POWs? (Mariupol as exception) EDIT: Now that I think about it the reason must be the long front combined with the relatively few military units. The unit density is commonly agreed to being exceptionally low. This must enable easy breaking out and especially "trickling out" of pockets. Russians were exceptionally good at this even in WWII. (of course "trickling out" means losing all organization and equipment)

TLDR: surprisingly small relative drop to the total amount of about 800 pieces total.

Nice 360 drone shot from the Lyman only escape road: https://goo.gl/maps/6ZhFtVfGascHJurz8 drone shot location on the map:

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xrl5cf/ukrainian_combat_footage_sept_29th/ interesting video of a raid on RUS positions in Kherson with commentary. Russian artillery has pre-sighted pretty much everything Response time of the artillery is only couple of minutes