The_MonkeyKing

hmm, maybe the river crossing there a while back is connected?

I wonder what is under the tarp? Would there be any reason for a tarp other than hiding something? (Maybe just hiding the amount of shots already fired from that magazine)

Interesting choice to blow it rather than capture it for a bridgehead. Possibilities: Russians blow it(looks like it, pretty "clean cut") or Russian reinforcements were close to crossing or other retreating.

We learned from history that we didn't learn from history.

gestimated animation of the operation so far

the ear and the mole makes a good match

Seems certain Ukraine is going to secure the terrain all the way to the Oskil river. Time to start wondering about Velykyi Burluk and expanding towards the north and how totally the Izium "pocket" can be destroyed.

Indeed more I think about it this has the potential of becoming a major headache for the Russians in the east. They might have to abandon dreams of Donbass liberation.

hmm

babushkas party on

All good with the Ukraine Kharkiv offensive and all but what could success here mean strategically? Even in the best case? Everyone can see the huge strategic impact of the Kherson area but how much would successes in Kharkiv front mean? Not as much I would dare to say. (but surely still very good indeed) Even if they take the area I drew here would it really matter that much in the big picture?

“The Russians are now evacuating Kup'yans'k. That is, Ukr. the breakthrough is clearly quite extensive“

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/wwyptq/multiple_himars_participating_in_an_attack_on/ I find it very strange we have now multiple times seen Ukrainians firing HIMARS as a group of 4. This would be a huge no-no in the Finnish military. Finnish military article on SPG battery tactics (in Finnish): https://imgur.com/a/oj6r7Ra (google camera translate "works") Not an MLRS but those systems are even more valuable and would be used with even more care. (SPGs operate alone as a part of the battery but never get grouped together)

We have precedent on Russia poisoning people and blowing up ammo storages in NATO countries. With minimal response.

Good vid, cannot count out the air force either as a suspect. We have so many suspects, haha. Good indicator that Ukraine indeed has lots of options (or easily realizable options) for deep strikes.

Lost equipment in that strike is worth a small countries air forces whole inventory.

The first satellite photos I believe:

Spec ops can used drones and they can also smuggle HIMARS close enough.

have to add to my list "drones". Also partisan launched kamikaze drones. My top contender.

well, I hope they use nukes. That would seal Russia's fate.

So this airbase strike, couple of options: - New HIMARS ammo given in secret - commando raid - sabotage - GMLRS armed HIMARS sneaked close enough (might even be on a ship) - Russian blow themselves up (two separted explosions, unlikely?) Hard to say which EDIT: add made in Ukraine equipment like Neptune

Crimea was declared free fire zone from the start by the US. And how would Russia exactly manage to escalate this in its favor?

https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/great-expectations-the-next-phase-of-the-russo-ukrainian-war/ latest "it is highly contingent" from Koffman. I tend to agree with him that the situation is too hard to read to state any outcomes as a "fact" from the outside.

I wouldn't agree that it is not happening. But I am also not saying the opposite. I am agnostic on this matter atm. I see the fog of war is clearly too thick to say much. Like Koffman just says "it is contingent". Maybe Ukraine attacks successfully (or not), Maybe Russia attacks successfully (or not) or both sides just wait and see.