The_MonkeyKing

live stream from a smallish anti war demonstration in Moscow (they stated taking people away already): and st Petersburg:

I will be disappointed if we wont see any major counter escalation from the west now.

some rumor news busting: According to Finnish border officials there has been no change in the amount or the profile of the border crossing. https://www.is.fi/kotimaa/art-2000009085672.html

Kofman and Lee going live in half an hour.

Why would they use actively serving conscripts? They are in the middle of their training. They, so to say graduate when they leave the army. After this they have "soldiers professional degree" and can be called up in mobilization. Using actively serving conscripts would be highly non-standard and very politically sensitive. Closest thing is going to be last years conscripts getting called up.

There are protest being organized already for tonight. We are going to get a good "internal temperature measurement" of the Russian society in very near future. https://www.instagram.com/p/CiwxoplrOcV/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y%3D

The mobilization doesn't threaten the Finnish border. This is because Russia is keeping a very close eye on the border (as always). There is absolutely no crossing the border for Russians without Russian governments consent. Russia is not letting people who are included in the mobilization across. (only thread in the future would be Russian mobilized refugee crisis like in Poland. These people would not overlap with draft dodgers) But of course authorities are adjusting accordingly. In keeping with Finnish tradition details are not disclosed. More generally the visa situation has not caused any noticeable changes on the border.

Russian draw dodgers as refugees is a complicated subject. We do not want to give protection to the Russians powerful classes while main population suffers. If we "evacuate" the opposition from Russia who is left to drive change? We want to protect any possible Russian opposition if they face impossible odds. humanitarian reasons. pretty wanted migrants. Working age somewhat well off people.

Draft dodging is also as old phenomenon as war itself. There are tried and tested methods. Especially so in a totalitarian surveillance state. Only thing that has helped to stop this in history is a collapse of the homefront that compromises the operation of the state/government.

Well, Russia is going to solve its manpower problem. And to anybody talking about morale ext. look at history. War has been fought by men who do not want to fight for millennia. There are well tried and tested "methods" for this. Yes, it is not as efficient but often good enough. As long as the home front doesn't collapse from the inside.

I have read about Liman as often as I read about Russian take over of Pisky.

We have to keep in mind Russia will do and say anything at anytime when it suits it. Even if they legally speaking fully annex whole Ukraine they can a week from now state "just kidding" and do the opposite. Remember Russia still claims most of the past Soviet Union territory anyways. So, at worst this just a tool to do partial mobilization to survive another day. More piecemeal and half-assed solutions.

Russia is going for full annexation of the occupied territories and partial mobilization in Russia (industry, stop-loss policies). Also the full annexation opens other successive escalatory steps because the war is fought on "Russian" territory.

Ukraine receiving its most western and modern tank: aand its a T-55 They are getting close to top of the line thermals, firing computer, laser warning systems, 105mm APFSDS-T with these babies. I say these are almost identical as sending modernized Leopard 1. Similar case in Finland. We still have a battalion of modernized T-55 in reserve even when we scraped all the T-72 twenty years ago.

In Finland (and many other countries) we removed them from the vehicles and they are used by anti-tank formations. IFV doctrine in Finnish terrain has very little use for IFV launched ATGM. Way more cost efficiency to have them in dedicated AT-formations. This is a matter of doctrine and what is the most fitting and cost effective solution for any specific country. (no idea why Russians don't have them mounted though)

20min of westerners operating in Irpin. At the start of the war. (in english)

20 minute report from the Kherson front. Again with hromadske they show the human experience of the Ukrainian soldier. Lost of interviews. Subtitled.

In Finnish military there is also some doctrine for tank riding. This is riding on an MBT. Tank riding is done when closing in with the enemy. Around last kilometer or so only. Only done in dense terrain (or one terrain feature away from danger) and only when the enemy contact line is well known. Infantry dismounts according to premade plan in a safe location and continues on foot with the tanks. This is when IFVs are not available for one reason or another. For example the final closing in with the enemy. In Finland likely scenario would be a planned prepared assault in a very dense forest with a very small road(s). No room for the IFVs to come with the tanks and LoS is so low the tank riding is safe (when enemy positions are known). Also because of the short LoS the infantry is also needed close to the tanks.

https://vxtwitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1570731489171738626?s=20&t=mKwzFvuAnt5sUKFgKw_cXA Third wave of strikes on the dam.

For a change Ukrainians showing their incompetence. some pointers: tracks are way too close to each other there should be a single track keeping the point so only it gets ambushed there should have been some recon element to notice this in advance (fails to notice everything, I give that) seems like a split rout/defense. absolutely no control over these forces good example on the challenges of riding on top of the IFV. No cover from small arms fire and absolutely no maneuvering under small arms fire. Also command and control of the infantry squad(s) breaks up completely under fire. In this situation point tanks should pop smoke, notify the company and dismount to closest available "cover" and engage in hasty defense. After this the whole point platoon does hasty defense and the company commander makes a fast decision on what to do. Common options: disengage or push though with the 2. and 3. platoons. And in either case the enemy position receives immediate fire from the battalion mortars. at least this is how it would go in the Finnish military.

Now also politicians calling it a "war" publicly:

Luckily Russia is quite sort on cruise missiles and the like. Also Ukraine air defense is way better now than ever. They might not be very capable of "plunging Ukraine into darkness" as they say...

Rhetoric has been a big predictor of Russia's next moves. Now the rhetoric is intensifying hard. I believe these guys would be facing charges if they said what they said couple months back.

In general I have been starting to wonder what is the actually definitions of the limitation at this moment? Armored vehicles that look like western and have manned turrets? (because we already have remote turret western APCs and PT-91 is a modern tank made in the west that just looks eastern)