The_MonkeyKing

Russian tent: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1593564758267019266?s=20&t=kEBOortGfMgiOsdxfdeYJw Close enough?:

Could be either. After the RUS opening up the Ukrainian machine gun gunner (that we saw in the vid) is going to open up and understandably going to keep firing for a while. Not taking the risk any of the guys laying down have change of mind or misunderstand the situation as UKR attack and start defending themselves. Also if grenades were thrown..

The most comprehensive analysis of the air war status from the start to this point. (second one was "Revisiting Russian Air Performance in Ukraine-the Russia Contingency with Michael Kofman" but it has paywall)

interesting little story: videos: https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/yy62hy/ukrainians_were_taking_a_group_of_russians/ https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/ytw4rp/what_1000_kia_a_day_looks_like_large_number_of/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=usertext&utm_name=CombatFootage&utm_content=t1_iwsg7em

In full context more reasonable. More like laying the ground work to walk back the original claims. Understandable they don't want to do 180degree turn there.

I think NATO might solve the problem of Russia firing missiles near POL border. UKR intercepting these has a risk of landing in Poland like now happened. Also Russian missile malfunctions are a risk. This might mean some sort of air and missile intercept zone for NATO lets say within 100km of Polish border. Taken care of with NATO airpower and air defence.

Ukrainians humiliated themselves with the FM and PM statements. Lets see how they walk these back. If they didn't jump the gun yesterday, today there would have been the angles of "we have old ****ty missiles, give use new ones" and "the Russians are firing their missiles along the UKR-POL border, so Russia is at fault, this was inevitable". I say pretty small change it was a Russian fired missile at this point. All that remains to be known to be sure is the type of missile.

Ukraine government getting extremely specific that this not anything Ukrainians launched. Meanwhile(I am not convinced it was S300):

We can hope. Maybe in this next Ukraine aid top off.

I don't Zelenskyi could lie here. The truth will be verified by the west very soon. So I say Ukrainian government is 100% it was not anything Ukrainian.

Well, Russia denies it before they could even possible have verified it

Good point on the range. Forgot how short range those are when it comes to ground attack

But the crates seem way too big. and on the other hand S300 in ground attack mode would make for a perfect for this sort of "grey op" for Russians. They could claim it is a misfired UKR air defense missile. EDIT: Too far for S300 from Belarus

smells like a dam about to blow to me:

what is going on? Very strange rumor mill

seems Russians managed to execute pretty nice withdrawal from Kherson bridgehead: source: https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine quite minimal losses compared to the Kharkiv offensive. (and Kharkiv happened over larger time) green Kherson retreat and orange final Kharkiv offensive

I think very possible. That cape is practically an island and is dominated by Ukrainian fires by rules of geography.

IDK?

No wonder the dam got damaged:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1591077634867240966?s=20&t=Xrd5qg4ZTTH4GeIq9WZZgw I wonder how the control of the dam will shape up. The management, power generation, occupation...

now we wait to see if this curve ramps up: https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine

It seem when you have a big bridgehead 40km deep(and 120km wide) and you can evacuate your personal during one night it is pretty hard for the enemy to press the advantage. Especially with all the mining and obstacles and rearguard troops left behind to lay ambushes. With motorboats at the ready and waiting to leave last. Also the attacker has some serious fog of war and big risks I they read the situation or the timing wrong.

Footage this morning at the bridge site seems pretty peaceful. Gives credibility to the statements Russian have already mostly crossed over.